The Dollar and Dime Game

Most mornings I take a walk to keep myself in shape. Usually I listen to an audiobook while walking, but for some reason my earbuds didn’t recharge properly overnight and this morning they didn’t work right. So, I had to take my constitutional in silence.

It so happens that yesterday I was revising Appendix H (The Binomial Probability Distribution) for the 6th edition of Intermediate Physics for Medicine and Biology. (Yes, you’re right, Gene Surdutovich and I are getting close to being done if we’re already up to the appendices.) As I was reviewing the material, I thought “it sure would be nice to have some more nontrivial but not too complicated word problems for this appendix.” So, as I hiked I came up with this:

Appendix H

Problem 6. You are a young college student who wants to make a little extra cash for living expenses. You also are an occasional Dungeons and Dragons player, so you have a twenty-sided die in the top drawer of your desk. You decide to set up what you call the “Dollar and Dime” game. Any student in your dormitory can come to you and pay you a dollar and a dime, and you will take out your twenty-sided die and roll it once. If it gives a one, you hand the student a crisp, new twenty dollar bill. If it it rolls a two through twenty, the student walks away empty handed. You’re pretty happy with the game. On average, the dollars earned cover the required payouts, and the dimes are all profit. The game becomes popular among your dormmates, and people stop by to play dozens of times each day.

A page from the Rodgers and Hammerstein Song Book.

John comes to you late one Friday afternoon. He has invited Jane to attend the school musical Oklahoma! with him that evening (Jame loves musicals, especially those by Rodgers and Hammerstein), but two tickets will cost him $40, and all he has is $11. It’s too late to find a part-time job or to beg funds from his parents. His only chance to avoid reneging on the theater date is to get the needed cash by playing the Dollar and Dime game. John slaps the eleven bucks down on your desk and says “I wanna play ten times.”

Your first thought is to tell John to go to the bank and exchange the ten dollar bill for ten ones and the one dollar bill for ten dimes, so he can play the game properly. But John is on the school wrestling team, is six foot three, and weighs 270 pounds, so you decide to waive this technicality. You accept his $11, get out the twenty-sided die, and start rolling.

Ordinarily when playing this game you relax, knowing that in the long run you will make a profit. However, today you’re a bit nervous because you only have three portraits on Andrew Jackson in the envelope where you store the cash for your game. Earlier in the day, you told your wealthy roommate Peter about your situation, hoping he could cover you if needed (he declined). Now, if John wins the game four or more times, he’s gonna to be upset that you can’t pay him what you owe him, and John is not the kind of guy you want to make mad.

(a) What is the probability that John wins enough money to take Jane to Oklahoma!?

(b) What is the probability that you get clobbered by John?

(c) How do all these results change if Peter (who is annoyed that you converted your dorm room to a casino with people coming and going and noisily rolling that silly icosahedron at all hours of the night) loans John an extra $22, interest free?

The first step in solving this problem is to realize that this, indeed, can be modeled using the binomial probability distribution. In the 5th edition of IPMB, Russ Hobbie and I wrote

Consider an experiment with two mutually exclusive outcomes, which is repeated N times, with each repetition being independent of every other one. One of the outcomes is labeled “success”, the other is called “failure.”

The binomial distribution is given by Eq. H.2,

where N is the number of tries (John has $11 so he can play the game ten times, N = 10), p is the probability of success for each try (it is a twenty sided die, so p = 0.05), and n is the number of successes (rolling a one). John will make 20n dollars by playing the Dollar and Dime game. The key question is, what’s the probability P that John gets n wins.

The odds of John never rolling a one and leaving broke is

Yikes! He has 3:2 odds of losing everything. Next, the probability that John wins only once are 

Only one win will make John twenty bucks, so after paying $11 to play he’ll be nine dollars ahead, but that still isn’t enough to take Jane to see Curly give Laurey that ride in his surrey which, as you will recall, costs $40. He needs at least two wins for that. We now have enough information to answer part (a). The probability that John takes Jane to the show is one minus the probability that he doesn’t earn at least $40. So, John can avoid an unpleasant call to Jane (or, worse, escape being a no show) with a probability of 1 – 0.599 – 0.315 = 0.086. That means the odds are about 11:1 against making Jane happy. Looks like John’s in trouble.

John’s best chance is to win the Dollar and Dime game twice and earn the $40 needed for tickets. The odds are

Boy, that would be great. But if John is really lucky, he’ll win enough for the tickets plus some extra cash for a large popcorn and two medium soft drinks (which costs $18.49).  

There’s only a one percent chance of Jane getting her popcorn.

But wait. If John wins four or more times, you won’t have the cash to cover his winnings. Either he’ll thrash you, or (more likely) you’ll be forced to make a deal where you pay John all that you have, $60, and promise to return his original investment of $11, and grovel before him begging for mercy. That would be good news for John. He would walk away with at least $71, and perhaps more if he knows how to drive a hard bargain (after all, you don’t want to end up daid, like poor Jud). What are the odds he’ll bust the bank? 

We should also add in the chance that John will win five times, or six, or more, but those will be very small (calculate them yourself if you don’t believe me). So, the probability of a disaster (for you, not for John) is about one part per thousand, or a tenth of a percent. The odds are small, but the consequences would be dire (with you possibly ending up in the hospital), so you’re still nervous until John finishes all ten of his rolls.

Now, consider the final twist to the story. Imagine that when your so-called “friend” Peter sees John arrive, he pulls him aside, gives him a wink, and loans him another $22. (Pete could have easily just lent $29 so John would have enough to cover the cost of his date with Jane, but that would defeat his purpose, wouldn’t it?). Now John has $33 to spend on the Dollar and Dime game. The only thing that changes is N increases from ten to thirty. How does that change the probabilities? You can work out the details. I’ll just state the results.

n        P 

  0     0.215 

  1     0.339 

  2     0.259 

  3     0.127 

 4     0.045

The chances of John taking Jane to the musical is now 0.446, so the odds are approaching 50-50. Still not great odds, but much better than before. John’s starting to dream that after he takes Jane to Oklahoma! “people will say we’re in love.” More importantly for you (and for that evil Peter), the odds of busting the bank are now 6%. So, at no cost to himself, Peter just increased the odds of shutting down the hated casino by a factor of sixty. Win or lose, you vow to start looking for another roommate; one who doesn’t know as much math.

By the time I came up with this homework problem, I had just about finished my walk. The problem has no biology or medicine in it, so it probably won’t make it into the revised sixth edition. With any luck, tomorrow I’ll be back to the audio book (and, oh, what a beautiful morning that will be). By the way, our goal is to submit the 6th edition of IPMB to our publisher, Springer, before the end of the year. It’s gonna be close, but we just might make it.

Oklahoma!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZbrnXl2gO_k&list=RDZbrnXl2gO_k

 Oh, What a Beautiful Morning

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O5APc0z49wg&list=RDO5APc0z49wg

The Surrey with the Fringe on Top

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BIG_GVE-KiE&list=RDBIG_GVE-KiE

Kansas City

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M6pmZE1Qtyw&list=RDBIG_GVE-KiE

The Farmer and the Cowman

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G85aEsgMDwA&list=RDG85aEsgMDwA 

I Cain’t Say No

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aExjjv2Klrs&list=RDaExjjv2Klrs&start_radio=1

Poor Jud is Daid

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Euq8Z4l6Iwk&t=171s