Atlantic hurricane season 2025: NOAA’s ‘above normal’ prediction yet to happen

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As the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season arrives, only one hurricane (Erin) has occurred, with minimal damage. An ‘above normal’ season was expected by many pundits, including NOAA. Their June headline of ‘NOAA predicts above-normal 2025 Atlantic hurricane season’ followed by ‘Above-average Atlantic Ocean temperatures set the stage’ lacks evidence so far with only one hurricane (Erin) to date, that fortunately stayed mostly at sea. Extracts from NOAA’s June predictions below. But NOAA’s early August update notes: ‘Early-season pressure and shear patterns in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea have not been conducive for storm development compared to climatology. If these patterns persist, they could dampen activity and result in activity nearer the lower end of the forecast ranges.’ Is it going to be another of several recent seasonal predictions of more hurricanes than were seen? The next few weeks will give the answer.
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NOAA’s outlook for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which goes from June 1 to November 30, predicts a 30% chance of a near-normal season, a 60% chance of an above-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season. (Talkshop note: 60% became 50% in NOAA’s August update).

The agency is forecasting a range of 13 to 19 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 6-10 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3-5 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher).

NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges.

“NOAA and the National Weather Service are using the most advanced weather models and cutting-edge hurricane tracking systems to provide Americans with real-time storm forecasts and warnings,” said Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. “With these models and forecasting tools, we have never been more prepared for hurricane season.”
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Factors influencing NOAA’s predictions
The season is expected to be above normal – due to a confluence of factors, including continued ENSO-neutral conditions, warmer than average ocean temperatures, forecasts for weak wind shear, and the potential for higher activity from the West African Monsoon, a primary starting point for Atlantic hurricanes. All of these elements tend to favor tropical storm formation.

The high activity era continues in the Atlantic Basin, featuring high-heat content in the ocean and reduced trade winds. The higher-heat content provides more energy to fuel storm development, while weaker winds allow the storms to develop without disruption.
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“In my 30 years at the National Weather Service, we’ve never had more advanced models and warning systems in place to monitor the weather,” said NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham. “This outlook is a call to action: be prepared. Take proactive steps now to make a plan and gather supplies to ensure you’re ready before a storm threatens.”

Full article here.
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