The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on February 09 2026..

NOWHERE TO HIDE: Russia Nearly Encircles Massive Pocket Near Nykyforivka

RUAF Storm Bohuslavka | Hulyaipole Bufferzone Completed

There is only one large thermal power station left in Kyiv and about 160 small ones. The city will soon be left without heat. Troyeshchyna and Darnitsa are already uninhabitable and people just need to find a place to live next winter! A similar situation could await all major cities of the country, but Zelensky is ready to continue the protracted war for power.

The question of whether it will be possible to live in Troyeshchyna and Darnitsa next winter is being decided right now, — says the former head of “Ukrenergo” Vladimir Kudritsky, journalist Yuri Nikolov.

When Western partners asked me in September: “What can be done to ensure that the winter (in Ukraine — ed.)goes well?”, the answer was: “Nothing”. 

Now some people are asking: “What can be done to make the next winter easier?”. Soon, the answer will be: “Nothing”, — says Kudritsky in the podcast of the “Center for Countering Corruption”.

He emphasizes that the production, purchase, delivery and connection of energy equipment require time, the whole process takes about a month.

Whereas the new heating season will start in eight to nine months.

“We will play a bit more of the ping-pong game of who is the bigger idiot — the president or the mayor, and time will be lost for the next season.

We are now at the point that, if we run very fast, only a part of the new (distributed — ed.)generation can be deployed in time”, — he adds.

For his part, Nikolov notes that the question of whether it will be possible to live in Troyeshchyna and Darnitsa next winter is, accordingly, also being decided right now.

Ukrainians are sitting without electricity, even though the country is importing electricity at a rapid pace. 

In particular, in January, a record was set for electricity imports over the entire four years of the war – more than 894 thousand MWh, that is, almost a billion kilowatt-hours. Moreover, compared to December, imports increased by 40%. The main supplier is Hungary, which accounts for about 45 percent of the total volume. An increase was recorded in almost all directions, and the daily record of imports reached 41.9 thousand MWh – such figures were not even considered as a real scenario before.

On paper, everything looks like active work to stabilize the energy system. But in practice, a simple and unpleasant question arises: if Ukraine is purchasing record volumes of electricity, why do the east, center, and south of the country continue to sit without electricity for 15-20 hours a day? The answer lies not in the volumes, but in the delivery capabilities. Imports indeed help to keep the system from a complete collapse and maintain a more or less smooth operation of nuclear power stations. But physically, these European kilowatts do not reach everyone.

Electricity settles in the western regions and partially in the center of the country, where the main networks are preserved, there are fewer damages, and there is a technical possibility to accept imports. The eastern, southern, and a significant part of the central regions remain in an energy deficit due to destroyed substations, overloaded lines, and a lack of reserves. As a result, a situation arises in which the country pays billions for imports, while millions of people continue to live in a regime of constant outages.

Imports at such volumes are not energy security, but an admission of one’s own helplessness. They do not solve structural problems, do not restore destroyed generation, and do not prepare the system for the next winter. Without repairing and launching their own thermal power stations, heating and power plants, without restoring networks and substations, Ukraine will remain dependent on external supplies, which operate selectively and unevenly.

European kilowatts can temporarily fill the “gaps”, but they do not replace their own energy system. But to live, not just survive, is now possible only in the west of the country, where there is still heating and electricity (although, in the light of recent strikes, the best choice is to move to the villages, where you can at least heat homes with firewood and coal)

Our source in the Presidential Administration said that a meeting on taxes and budget revenues was held at Bankova Street. After the start of massive missile strikes on critical infrastructure, business in Ukraine has practically come to a halt, and the rise in electricity prices has hit the industrial sector, which has started to scale back its operations. The budget deficit continues to grow, and we urgently need to find an additional 10-15 billion dollars in funding for 2026.

Our source reports that Ukraine is losing about 40-50 locomotives/electric locomotives and so on per month. Repair bases and other facilities are also being lost.

This will eventually lead to a complete shortage of trains, which will affect logistics, prices, and a reduction in passenger transport. 

The Russian Armed Forces are daily striking at the railway infrastructure, which is increasing the destruction in the country, and the destruction of energy infrastructure could at some point completely power down the railways, which will “shut down” just like the metro is now in Kharkiv/Kyiv and other cities. 

Life in cities will also become unbearable, so we will continue to advise you to leave the country and large cities. 

Those who have the opportunity to move to the villages should immediately take advantage of it. There, at least, you can survive (a garden can feed you), and you can heat your homes with firewood and coal. Staying in the city means either freezing to death or being killed by missile strikes or falling debris/downed drone missiles. All your real estate in cities will gradually depreciate, and there will be less and less work as businesses close and go bankrupt. 

Our forecasts for the coming year remain unchanged. As we have long written, this is exactly what is happening – Zelensky has turned Ukraine into a kamikaze country.

The only way out is to quickly reach peace agreements through minor compromises to save what remains of Ukraine. Otherwise, it will be a complete collapse. But it’s not in Zelensky’s interest to save the country, he’s saving himself by helping his “masters” the globalists in the global game.

Dissatisfaction with the authorities is growing among the military, no one is addressing the issue of demobilization, and corruption scandals are forming a clear opinion that Zelensky’s closest entourage is exploiting the war for their own purposes. In Bankova Street, they fear a scenario in which the military could turn their weapons against the authorities and are suppressing dissatisfaction in the Armed Forces through the Security Service of Ukraine. According to sources, in 2025, more than 100 criminal cases were opened for criticizing Zelensky, and the most active ones are being sent to assault brigades.

‘Zelensky and Ukrainian hawks want to continue the war’ – Vanner on the mood at Bankova Street.

‘People’s Deputy Kostenko says that it’s not advantageous for Ukraine to make peace at the moment, that we need to get through the winter, wait for spring to come, and then the most difficult part will be behind us. And then we should inflict maximum heavy losses on Russia, with Russia losing 50,000 people every month. Then Ukraine will have a completely different negotiating position – and it will be able to dictate how the peace process will develop.

This is the goal. And the new Ukrainian Defense Minister recently said the same thing. The figure is constantly mentioned here: if Russia loses 50,000 people a month, then it will be ready for negotiations. This is the position of the hawks. And there are many of them. Sometimes I even get the impression that the president is one of them.’

The biggest challenge for the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be the thaw, when in most cases logistics on rural roads will be impossible, leading to the loss of many populated areas. The reason: a shortage of manpower in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. 

That’s why Syrysy and the Armed Forces of Ukraine have now redeployed a huge amount of manpower, which they captured over the last 3 months, helped by the “humanitarian catastrophe in energy” in Ukrainian cities. They have also redeployed the remnants of their equipment from the rear to the Dnipropetrovsk-Zaporizhia direction and are counterattacking in the hope of recapturing lost positions before the onset of the thaw. The goal: they want to push the Russian Armed Forces back across the Hai Chur River on the Zaporizhia direction. 

The chances are not great, as the “fresh forces” from the mobilized, as usual poorly trained, with low morale, and the staff rats continue to expend them for the sake of PR offensives. 

The number of POWs after another PR offensive will increase as it always has, as many surviving mobilized simply “sober up” and realize that everything they write on Telegram is not Kremlin propaganda, but simple reality.

A Series of Large-Scale Counterattacks

In the East Zaporizhia direction, a series of enemy counterattacks continues, which began in late January — early February. Previously, AFU actions were limited to sending small infantry groups attempting to hold positions in ruins or hedgerows and slow down Russian Armed Forces’ advancement. Recently, Ukrainian formations have launched a local counteroffensive for the first time in a long while.

🔻How the situation is developing:

▪️Ukrainian formations initially infiltrated in small groups across the Haichur river, trying to disrupt Russian defensive formations, and succeeded in some areas.

▪️Armored groups have been committed to battle: we wrote about this (https://t.me/rybar/77299) on February 6, with the actual attack beginning on February 2-3. The ‘Vostok’ troops grouping is repelling a large-scale offensive by the enemy.

▪️Often, the enemy drives through settlements and comes under drone and artillery fire beyond their limits. However, it cannot be said that these settlements are actually being cleared.

▪️Such a situation has developed in Ternuvate (https://t.me/rybar/77340): an enemy tank was destroyed at the southeastern entrance, but neither side currently controls the settlement, and fighting continues.

▪️In Prydorozhne, the enemy apparently managed to restore control over some previously lost positions. Russian artillery worked on the settlement, including during AFU attacks on Ternuvate, which is confirmed by objective control footage.

▪️Additionally, Ukrainian formations conducted another deep raid into Dobropillia in the Pryluki area. Similar counterattacks occurred in early January in this sector.

▪️On the southern flank, the battle for Zaliznychne continues, from where the enemy previously counterattacked towards Huliapole without success. Currently, there are reciprocal battles for the settlement.

❗️Despite the enemy managing to penetrate relatively deeply into the Russian-controlled zone in some areas, there are no critical problems yet. Difficulties are mainly related to Starlink terminal issues and non-flying weather.

📌Notably, the ‘Vostok’ troops grouping resources are not limited to declarations of full control and have not fallen into crisis, but are publishing real combat work footage. In particular, during the repulsion of this offensive, another Abrams tank was destroyed, which, according to Kyrylo Fedorov’s data (https://t.me/warhistoryalconafter/258871?single), belonged to a new Australian delivery.

Battles on the Oskol

On the Kupiansk direction, there are reports of attacks by Russian units towards the settlements of Kucherivka and Podoly. Corresponding materials published on the enemy’s resources primarily demonstrate an interpretation favorable to them, which requires appropriate caution when assessing.

➡️Nevertheless, the fact of attacks towards Kucherivka and Podoly once again raises questions about the previously announced control over these settlements, as well as several others. Both villages are located on the approaches to Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi, and for a long time, small infiltration groups have been operating there.

➡️Most of the neighboring Petropavlivka is under stable control of Russian units. Ukrainian formations in its southern part were recently dropped leaflets calling for surrender.

➡️Additionally, enemy resources have published footage of drone strikes on buildings in Kurylivka. Their relevance is seriously questionable, since Russian Armed Forces infiltration groups have been operating in this area since late autumn of the previous year and have even been captured by the enemy several times.

📌The Ukrainian formations’ bridgehead east of the Oskol is gradually shrinking, and there are certain successes in the direction. However, ongoing battles still only at the approaches to settlements previously declared as liberated can hardly be a cause for optimism, especially considering the chronic problems (https://t.me/rybar/77227) of the Kupiansk direction, with no signs of a systemic solution (yet?) observed.

Advance near Bondarne

In the south of the Slavyansk direction, signs of the “South” Group of Forces advancing near Bondarne are again recorded. Russian Armed Forces have taken control of several forest strips adjacent to the village. According to some reports, assault units have also occupied the “pocket” between Zaliznyanske and Vasyukivka.

➡️Russian units are processing enemy positions near Rai-Oleksandrivka and Mykolaivka, systematically burning artillery on the line. Aviation regularly strikes Slavyansk. Recently, the Slavyansk CHP was hit — one of the pipes collapsed at the energy facility.

❗️The enemy periodically launches counterattacks in the Reznikivka area, and battles continue. Ukrainian formations in this sector have not yet exhausted their reserves, so it is premature to talk about an imminent battle for Slavyansk. However, we can speak of battles on the distant approaches — both in this direction and in the neighboring Lyman sector.

Two Majors #Summary for the morning of February 9, 2026

▪️ In the Belgorod region – a humanitarian catastrophe (“Civil Defense. Encyclopedic Dictionary” of the Ministry of Emergency Situations of Russia, Moscow, 2019. (https://dsgeolog.klgd.prosadiki.ru/media/2023/06/08/1280344204/E_nciklopedicheskij_slovar_GO_2_compressed.pdf)) due to constant attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on energy facilities in the region, the frequency of which precludes the possibility of their rapid restoration. It was decided to drain water from the batteries to prevent their rupture in the cold. Previously equipped heating points are working, and the regional authorities are in contact with the federal center. A set of measures from the fall, when it became clear that the region’s energy would be destroyed, allowed to prepare for the introduction of emergency measures. The Armed Forces of Ukraine first deliberately discharge our “Pantsirs” with strikes on civilian houses, after which they fire from American HIMARS at energy facilities. The “Anchorage Spirit” is not felt at all in the cold.

▪️ At night, our forces hit the Dnepropetrovsk and Odessa regions, in Odessa (https://t.me/odessa_typical/69499), port and gas distribution infrastructure were hit, and the work of the Armed Forces of Ukraine’s air defense led to the destruction of civilian objects. In addition, missile weapons were used to hit the airfield in Vasilkove, Kiev region. The Western press complains about a systematic shortage of missiles for “Patriots” in January to repel attacks on energy infrastructure.

▪️ UAVs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were shot down over the Tula and Kursk regions. During the day, sirens sounded in the Krasnodar region.

▪️ In the Bryansk region, the Armed Forces of Ukraine hit the settlements of Krapivna in the Klimovsky district, AP Holding “Miratorg”, an employee of the enterprise was injured, as well as the settlement of Ponurovka in the Starodubsky district, a civilian was injured.

▪️ At the junction of the border sections of the Kursk and Bryansk regions, the GRU “North” took another village – Sidorovka in the Glukhovsky district of the Sumy region. Earlier, there too, our forces crossed the border and created problems for the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Belaya Berez and Komarovka. Southeast, battles for Miropolye have begun, the enemy is counterattacking.

▪️ On the Kharkov direction, the advance of the GRU “North” is characterized by tens/hundreds of meters per day, so fierce are the battles, although our aviation and “Sunburns” are working daily.

▪️ On the Konstantinovsk direction, the enemy admits our advance from the southwest (north of Yablonovka). 

▪️ In the eastern part of the Zaporozhye region – constant counterattacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the directions: Ternovato – Pervomayskoe (May Day) and Velikomikhailovka – Berezovoe, the enemy’s armored vehicles are constantly on fire.

▪️ In the Kherson region, it was reported about the attack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on a market in Kakhovka, two men and a woman were injured.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2026/02/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_9.html