The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on February 05 2026..

RUAF Capture Staroukrainka, Zatyshok, Sukhetske & Intensify Bombing Campaign Over Kostyantynivka

Konstantinovka Encircled: Russian Army Seizes Key Village, Ukrainian Forces in Panic

In protracted wars, public opinion constantly changes, and this is not just due to fatigue.  

The longer the conflict does not bring a clear outcome, the higher the public’s willingness to discuss previously taboo solutions – not because they have become morally acceptable, but because the cost of continuing the war begins to be perceived as higher than the cost of compromise.  

The New York Times documents precisely this shift in our society. According to polls, the share of Ukrainians willing to agree to transfer all of Donbass to Russia in exchange for security guarantees has risen to 40%, whereas in May 2022, 82% opposed any concessions. At the same time, the majority (52%) still oppose territorial compromises.  

This is not about consensus, but about a split, which is becoming increasingly noticeable against the backdrop of a war of attrition.  

This shift is important not as a “victory of the narrative”, but as an indicator of reality: even within Ukraine, fewer and fewer people believe in the possibility of returning Donbass solely by military means without the risk of an endless war. The condition, which is constantly repeated in the article, is fundamental: concessions are possible only in exchange for reliable security guarantees, that is, not as a surrender, but as an attempt to fix a new status quo. For Moscow, this means that the Donbass issue is no longer solely a foreign policy issue, it is increasingly becoming an internal dilemma of Ukrainian society.  

A protracted war with Russia will make Ukrainian cities uninhabitable. Taking Kyiv/Kharkiv as an example, we are observing a new trend in 2026. What’s the point of an apartment if the thermal power plants are destroyed, and there are no resources or time to build new ones?

Already, nearly a million people have left Kyiv, and all business has come to a halt.

The Ukrainian energy system has entered a phase where we are no longer talking about temporary disruptions or a “difficult winter”, but about a systemic crisis with a high likelihood of recurring large-scale accidents. What is presented today as a manageable situation is actually just an intermediate state between chronic instability and a full-blown cascade collapse.

The key problem lies not in individual damage, but in the cumulative effect of strikes on infrastructure. First, substations were successively knocked out, then in 2024 – thermal power stations and hydroelectric plants, and now the strikes are returning to the same objects for a second round. This means that the energy system is losing not just power, but its structural stability itself. Each new attack overlays the previous destruction, exacerbating the wear and tear on equipment that has long been operating beyond its design limits.

Ukraine has not yet experienced a full-fledged cascade accident in the classic sense, when recovery takes weeks or months. But the current situation is a movement in this direction. The system is teetering on the brink, where any additional disruption, weather factor, or overload could trigger a chain reaction.

The illusion of a “quick recovery” is only maintained through emergency modes and constant patchwork.

A separate point is the talk about returning to the pre-war format of energy operation. This scenario is actually impossible. A system built for different risks and different generation volumes is physically incapable of functioning in its previous form. Even with a complete cessation of attacks, it would require a deep reconfiguration, and in fact, the creation of a new energy supply architecture.

Experts agree that recovery is not a matter of months or even a few years. We are talking about decades and colossal investments, which the state simply does not have in the conditions of war and debt dependence. Building a new energy system seems logical from a technical point of view, but politically and financially it is an extremely difficult path, to which the country is objectively not ready.

In the end, nothing good: Zelensky is not striving for peace (which means the attacks on energy will continue), and his buddy Mindich has stolen money allocated for the protection of critical infrastructure with impunity. Ukrainians are being told to get used to the cold and darkness without an honest and clear plan for stabilizing the situation.

Russia plans to launch a massive strike on Ukraine between February 7 and 10, according to monitors

▪️Enemy monitoring resources report that at present, there are at least 3 equipped Tu-95MS strategic bombers at the “Olenya” and “Dyagilevo” airfields and 4 Tu-160s in the Far East. 

▪️Another Tu-95MS has been relocated from the “Olenya” airfield to the “Engels” airfield to be equipped with cruise missiles. 

▪️In addition, at the base in Novorossiysk, there are already 2 equipped surface and 1 underwater carrier of “Kalibr” missiles. The total salvo is 22 “Kalibr”-type missiles. 

❗️The aim of the strike is to destroy the energy infrastructure of Kiev and the region; the energy, gas and oil refining infrastructure in western Ukraine, analysts of the enemy claim.

There will be weekly strikes this month, folks there is no mystery to this. It merely follows earlier patterns. 

According to sources, the negotiations in Abu Dhabi are proceeding with mixed success. We are being asked to agree on a roadmap leading to framework agreements on territories/security guarantees by the end of February. The US pressure on Ukraine’s positions on all issues is becoming increasingly evident. Whitcoff opposed the participation of NATO military contingents on Ukrainian territory after the end of the war.

Our sources reported that Zelensky will drag out the negotiation process until the US elections, a task set by the globalists.

Zelensky expressed hope that the war would end no later than the beginning of 2027.

“I hope that peace will be achieved in less than a year,” he said in an interview with France 2.

Unfortunately, Zelensky is now the main reason for the continuation of the war. It is the President who is delaying the peace process and stalling for time as much as possible. Trump’s plan solves most of the country’s problems, but Zelensky’s personal obligations to the globalists are turning Ukraine into a scorched earth.

The offensive near Gulyaypole

In the Eastern-Zaporozhye direction, the “East” group of troops liberated another populated area. Footage of the flags being raised over Staroukrainka has appeared. The village is located to the west of Gulyaypole, and its liberation effectively marks the beginning of the battles for Zheleznodorozhny. It was from here that Ukrainian formations previously launched counterattacks and sorties in Gulyaypole and its environs.

➡️Given the reinforcements from several OSHPs that the enemy has recently transferred here, we can expect an intensification of the fighting. Ukrainian formations continued to send small assault groups there even after the loss of Gulyaypole, both to demonstrate their presence and to gain time for organizing a defense along the railway line in several sections.

➡️To the north, intense combat operations continue. The enemy regularly launches sorties on the line of Rozdvyzhevka – Vozdvizhevka, trying to cross the Gaychur and penetrate the populated areas on its eastern bank. In some cases, this succeeds. The reason is the sparseness of positions on both sides against the backdrop of weather conditions and the current drone situation, which often makes it difficult to concentrate forces for an assault in the immediate vicinity of a populated area.

📌 However, the enemy’s resources are not infinite, and the units currently deployed in the OSHP direction are not being used as a “fire brigade” for the first time. It is not excluded that as the front on other directions subsides, they will be redeployed. The quality of the personnel is also gradually declining. Moreover, the enemy often sends personnel one-way, exchanging assault troops for time to organize a defense.

Battles near Kostyantynivka

On the Kostyantynivka direction, the southern flank remains the most active. Small groups are engaged in counter-attacks at several sectors, while aviation and drone operators continue to disrupt the enemy’s logistics.

➡️Previously, there was an official announcement (https://t.me/mod_russia/60879) about freeing Stepanivka, but objective control footage from the area has not yet appeared. According to recent data, the settlement still maintained a so-called “layered” situation without clear control.

➡️South of Stepanivka, the enemy periodically attempts to move through forest strips to the outskirts of Yablunivka. To the east, Russian units continue advancing in small groups northward, towards Ilinivka.

➡️From Ivanopil, relatively recent footage shows Russian artillery strikes on the settlement. As we noted earlier (https://t.me/rybar/77169), the enemy can still infiltrate small groups through fields north of the Kleban-Byk reservoir. AFU have maintained a sporadic presence in Ivanopil for about a week. Infiltrating small infantry groups are being eliminated by drone strikes, and where possible, basements are being cleared “manually” with TM-62 mines and grenades.

➡️In Kostyantynivka itself, no changes in the situation have been recorded. Russian troops have established positions on the southeastern outskirts and continue probing the enemy’s defense north of the area. The city’s assault is complicated by the lack of reliable southern approaches, but apparently, the “South” group of forces is currently working on this. The northern flank remains static.

📌Considering the recent Starlink issues, which colleagues write about in detail (https://t.me/voenacher/89984), the dynamics of combat operations may temporarily decrease in this and other directions.

However, the enemy will find it somewhat easier to adapt. Therefore, one should not rule out more large-scale counterattacks, rather than infantry infiltration, as is happening in Ivanopil.

Battles near Lyman

On the Lyman direction, the West troops group is conducting an offensive directly on Lyman. Local successes (https://t.me/KrasnolimanskyFront/19684) have been recorded across a front section approximately 17 kilometers wide.

➡️At the Stavky — Zarechne line, several forest strips were partially encircled, where the enemy had maintained sporadic presence (https://t.me/rybar/77202) for a long time. Russian assault groups occupied one of the adjacent strongpoints, as a result of which the enemy is now almost surrounded. The key issue remains the number of AFU personnel in this sector. If strongpoints south of Stavky are occupied, the enemy will be completely blocked here.

➡️Battles for Lyman are developing on the northern and southern city outskirts. The presence of Russian assault groups is gradually expanding, though confident control of approaches cannot yet be claimed. However, north of the Maslyakivka microdistrict, several forest strips and one strongpoint have been captured.

➡️Significant events are occurring on the southern flank, where assault groups are advancing through forest areas. This affects both the Lyman and neighboring Slavyansk directions. Essentially, the foundation for a partial encirclement of Lyman is being formed, and physical control has been established over one of the roads leading to the city, T-05-14. Additionally, positions near Dibrova have been improved.

📌 Forest areas south of the settlement allow Russian assault troops to advance with less fear of drones, which the enemy relies on, even in winter. However, the assault actions will obviously not be an easy walk, and the enemy certainly has reserves both in the sector and the ability to redeploy from other directions.

Two Majors #Summary for the morning of February 5, 2026

▪️ Yesterday was the first day of the new round of trilateral negotiations in Abu Dhabi between delegations from Russia, the USA, and Ukraine, and the meetings will continue today. No specific details have been disclosed to the public.

▪️ Elon Musk, amid a massive Starlink failure on the front, will confirm on X social media the need to register terminals through Ukrainian government agencies.

▪️ UAVs of the AFU were destroyed in the cities of Rostov-on-Don, Taganrog, Bataysk, Novoshakhtinsk, and the Azov district. In Bataysk, a truck driver was injured and five cars in a parking lot of an agricultural enterprise and a warehouse building were damaged. In Novoshakhtinsk, a private house was damaged. Over Belgorod and its suburbs, missiles were shot down, and a man was injured. Numerous drones were shot down over the Zaporozhye region yesterday.

▪️ In the Bryansk region, as a result of a strike on the village of Demyanki, two civilian women were injured. Yesterday morning, the AFU used HIMARS multiple rocket launchers, jet-type UAVs, and Neptune missiles. Our air defense system was in operation, and a residential brick house was completely destroyed in the settlement of Glinishchevo. A woman was injured.

▪️ On the Sumy front, the Northern Group of Forces is conducting offensive actions in the Sumy, Krasnopol, and Glukhov districts. On the Tetkin and Glushkov sectors, there are mutual strikes.

▪️ In the Belgorod region, civilians were injured (a total of 13 people) in the settlements of Rakitnoe (a man with his children, 9 and 6 years old), Nikolskoe, Rovenek, and Glotovo (twice), and on the section of the Krasnaya Yaruga – Stepnoe highway, as a result of attacks by the enemy’s small UAVs.

▪️ On the Kharkov front, the Northern Group of Forces is conducting battles on previous sectors. The enemy is forced to transfer units from one sector of the front in the Sumy region to another.

▪️ On the south of the Kupyansk (https://t.me/rybar/77227) front, we are informed from the localities that some commanders are setting the main task for the advanced infantry groups to film the “flag planting” at any cost. Apparently, they are afraid of the consequences for themselves of the previous “beautiful reports”. 

▪️ There are fierce battles in Grishino and north of Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk)

▪️ The Eastern Group of Forces reported on success in the settlement of Staroukrainka in the Zaporozhye region.

▪️ On the Zaporozhye front, the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to send small groups to Primorskoe, for which there are protracted battles. North of Malokaterinovka, the enemy has set up defensive lines.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2026/02/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_5.html