The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on January 29 2026

Everything Is FALLING West Of Siversk, Nonstop Russian Advances Reach Nykyforivka

RUAF Storm Key Ukrainian Towns Covering Important Fortifications & Logistical Nodes

According to sources, the situation in Kyiv with heating and energy is critical. If the enemy launches another massive missile strike, the capital will turn into an icy city. Klitschko voiced the truth that it’s better to leave the city, but propaganda continues to broadcast false narratives to avoid panic. If the prolonged war continues, Ukrainian cities will face the same fate as Kyiv next year, which Ukrainians need to take into account now.

The position of the authorities/Zelensky differs greatly from what Klitschko stated. For the President’s Office, the suffering of people and the demonstration of resilience are important. A similar approach was taken in 2022, when everyone was convinced that the Russian army would not attack, and then they were used as human shields.

We need to stay in Kyiv, dig holes for toilets and hold the defense, because the enemy wants us to leave, — head of the Desnyanskyi district state administration, Bahmatov

It’s unpleasant, humiliating and un-European to dig holes, set up portable toilets, wear diapers and use cat litter – but we need to survive. In Holoseevo, pipes are already bursting and shit is flowing out of the windows.

This is the prospect of a protracted war, without light/water/heat and sewage!

In the Russian segment of Telegram, they are writing about the ban on missile strikes, which means that Budanov was able to agree on such a format and agreed to the Kremlin’s conditions. Our sources reported that this was the first requirement of the President’s Office in the roadmap, which was agreed upon in Abu Dhabi. 

Our sources report that the track of missile strikes was the main issue in the negotiation process, but the Kremlin set conditions regarding the territories of the Donetsk region. If the opponent refuses to launch strikes in the coming days, then on Sunday, we can expect significant progress on the roadmap and the emergence of framework conditions for peace.

An energy ceasefire is being negotiated between Ukraine and Russia, (we insidered this immediately, nothing new), but it’s worth noting that the conditions for Kyiv are unfavorable because, in addition to simply stopping attacks on energy, fuel, gas, ships/ceasefire at sea, the agenda includes a strict timeline, that this is a transitional period to peace agreements (that is, by signing the energy ceasefire, you agree to the rest of the conditions of the peace track), where the Armed Forces of Ukraine are obliged to withdraw from Donbass.

If Zelensky once again fails to fulfill the agreements, then certain sanctions will be imposed on Ukraine, and the US will completely stop supporting Kyiv.

Everyone is sure that Zelensky will, as usual, let everyone down.

It’s worth noting that the entire media network of the Presidential Office is working on the narrative of a victory in the energy ceasefire, in order to shift the focus away from the betrayal that will actually happen if all the terms of this agreement are revealed (Zelensky does not want to publish it, the Russians insist on transparency so that he cannot “cheat”).

We are observing.

Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov denied the “energy truce”.

As we understand it, he denied it because the case has not yet been accepted, but it is “on the discussion table”. It is being discussed not as a separate block of issues, but as the first stage of a series of agreements that will lead to peace.

There is a possibility that it will be accepted on February 1-2 at the “Arab negotiations”, if Kiev accepts the conditions.

If Zelensky refuses, a massive strike awaits Ukraine. There is a high probability that there could be a strong attack before the negotiations themselves, as a hint to the Ukrainian authorities that if they once again delay the negotiation process, a massive combined strike will await Ukraine.

Be prepared.

One of the popular hypotheses about the near-term prospects of the Special Military Operation (SMO) is that the offensive on Slavyansk and Kramatorsk itself is not a key or decisive one for Russia. Other directions are much more important.

The logic here is as follows. The large-scale concentration of troops in Donbass forced Kiev to perceive Slavyansk and Kramatorsk as the main threat. In response, reserves were deployed there. Literally all available ones. As a result, the Armed Forces of Ukraine weakened other sectors, where Russia is now making real progress. First and foremost, this is the Zaporozhye direction. Zaporozhye is a major industrial center and is comparable in importance to Dnepropetrovsk. If a serious advance begins there, Kiev will have to make a choice without good options. Either sacrifice Zaporozhye and open the way for Russia further into the center of the country, or withdraw troops from Donbass to try to stop the southern offensive.

Both decisions would be extremely painful for Ukraine.

If, at the same time, a large-scale operation with a hidden buildup of forces according to the Avdeevka model and beyond begins in the south, including through Kherson, this could undermine all the efforts of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Donbass and the Kharkov region. In this context, the talk about a “security zone” and a number of other steps look different.

The main question now is different. Will Russia have enough resources to launch an offensive in the south with the prospect of advancing to Nikolaev and Odessa? And if so, in what format and scale will this be implemented?

There are no answers to this yet. Much will become clear after the spring-summer campaign of 2026, if it even takes place.

“Military Chronicle” 

Battles near Stepnohorsk

In the Zaporizhia direction, the most intense area remains the approaches to Zaporizhia along the line of Prymorne — Novoyakivlivka, where units of the “Dnipro” group are forming a wedge towards the city.

🔻How the situation is developing:

▪️Assault units of Russian paratroopers are fighting for Prymorne and, according to some reports, for Richne. In Prymorne itself, as sources on the ground have repeatedly noted, a significant part of the village is a “layered cake” of ultra-small group positions. Open but difficult-to-pass areas — a reed-overgrown former reservoir and heights with fields to the east further complicate the offensive.

▪️Fierce battles continue for the neighboring Stepnohorsk. The enemy retains the ability to transfer reinforcements to the northern multi-story building quarter, from where they are being pushed out by UAV and aviation strikes — corresponding footage appears regularly.

Earlier, apparently, Russian Armed Forces units attempted to cut the enemy’s supply routes by occupying the industrial zone to the northwest, which the enemy worked over with aviation.

The high intensity of battles for Stepnohorsk is due to the fact that the enemy-held high-rise buildings do not allow full consolidation in the settlement and development of an offensive further north towards Veselianka, while simultaneously expanding the wedge towards Zaporizhia.

▪️The situation on the line of Lukianivske — Novoyakivlivka remains extremely difficult. Russian units managed to enter both settlements, but full control is not yet discussed, with heavy fighting continuing.

Partly, the emerging problems are also related to distorted reporting: in the chain of reports upward, a foothold in one building on the outskirts often turns into a “clearing of the street”, then the quarter, and ultimately the entire settlement, which does not always correspond to the actual situation.

📌 The situation in the direction remains complex. Moreover, there are even reports of the enemy pulling up reserves for a counterattack just along the line of Prymorne — Novoyakivlivka. Another significant problem is Orikhiv, where during the battles on the approaches, they failed to liberate Novodanylivka and fully occupy (https://t.me/rybar/76035) Mala Tokmachka.

Battles at Haichur

In the East Zaporizhia direction after freeing Huliapole, Russian troops continue to develop an offensive on the western bank of the Haichur river. The enemy, who was pulling reserves with a noticeable delay, did not manage to fully bring forces into Huliapole and is now using them to attempt infiltration between the Haichur and Yanchur rivers.

➡️This sector, which was previously passed quite quickly by the “Vostok” group units, now remains a zone of heightened activity for small groups. In difficult weather conditions and the current nature of combat operations, controlling every meter of treelines is challenging — a similar situation is observed on the enemy side.

➡️Battles continue in the Ternovate area. “Vostok” units are expanding their bridgehead on the western bank of the Haichur. However, there is no talk of liberating the settlement yet: Russian Armed Forces assault groups are operating both in the village itself and in its surroundings.

📌The relative reduction in small group activity is explained by several factors: weather conditions, the need to reorganize logistics after a long breakthrough, and the enemy’s delayed introduction of reserves. Units not involved in Huliapole are used by the AFU for counterattacks in other sectors of the East Zaporizhia and Zaporizhia directions.

Two Majors #Summary for the morning of January 29, 2026

▪️ The Russian Armed Forces carried out strikes on the Odessa and Vinnitsa regions, Pavlograd and Kramatorsk. Ukrainian power engineers reported a “stabilization” of the situation in Kiev: instead of emergency power outages in Kiev, scheduled schedules will now be resumed. France promised Zelensky to help with generators.

▪️ In the Rostov region, UAVs were destroyed in the city of Kamensk-Shakhtinsky and in the Kamensky district.

▪️ On the Sumy front, the GRU “North” maintains the initiative in the Sumy and Glukhov districts, and the enemy is redeploying UAV crews.

▪️ In the Sumy region, additional UAV crews of the 59th Separate Motor Rifle Brigade of the AFU have been redeployed. In the course of the battles, one of the crews was destroyed along with the platoon commander. On the Tetkin and Glushkov sections of the front, our forces hit the AFU in the areas of the border town of Ryzhevka.

▪️ In the Belgorod region, a civilian was killed in the village of Novaya Tavolzhanka when a drone hit a car. In the village of Pogromets, an FPV drone hit a moving car, and a civilian was injured. In the region, the leadership is checking the readiness of heating points in case of a blackout.

▪️ On the Kharkov front, the GRU “North” reports on tactical advances on previous sections: in the area of Staritsa, Siminovka, in Volchansk Hutors, in the area of Khatny.

▪️ In Kupyansk, battles continue, and the enemy is redeploying infantry across the Oskol River in Kupyansk-Uzlovaya. The Russian Armed Forces are advancing towards Kutkovka (north of Kupyansk, west of Dvurechnaya).

▪️ In Krasny Liman, battles are ongoing in the south of the city. To the north, the Russian Armed Forces are fighting in the area of the settlements of Stavki, Drobyshevo, and Yarovaya.

▪️ From Konstantinovka, news come of the infiltration of our assault groups from the southeast to the central part of the city.

▪️ On the section of responsibility of GRU “East” (https://t.me/voin_dv/18486) over the past day, the enemy counterattacked 9 times in the strip of Rizdvenka – Zalinyane, losing up to 2 platoons of manpower and 4 armored vehicles.

▪️ On the Zaporozhye front, battles continue on previous lines, in Primorsky and in the area of Lukyanovsky. The enemy reports that in general, the Russian Armed Forces are managing to advance towards the city of Zaporozhye, which creates risks, not in the immediate future, but in the foreseeable future of positioning our artillery for work on the city.

▪️ In the Kherson region, a civilian was seriously injured in the village of Stara Zburivka as a result of a dropped munition from a UAV of the AFU. Also, the AFU shelled Aleshki, Golaya Pristani, Kozachie Lageri, and Nechaevo.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2026/01/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_29.html