The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on January 28 2026

500,000 Young Men Leave Ukraine — Russian Army Advances Into Lyman From Three Axes

According to sources, Budanov will again request an urgent air truce at the negotiations to preserve the country’s energy system. The Russian delegation demands to first agree on a roadmap and only then proceed to a format of temporary pauses on the frontline.

In recent days, Russians are not using a large number of drones for attacks, but are applying their favorite tactic of a targeted, massive strike.

In recent days, they have been actively attacking all Odessa ports and the coast.

The task is to paralyze the ports, as the Kremlin has come to realize that Trump’s peace plan has “definitely failed”.

If there is no real historical breakthrough at the upcoming Ukraine-US-RF meeting in the UAE, a humanitarian catastrophe awaits Ukraine. After all, the temperatures are dropping to -25, and the Kremlin is stockpiling missiles and drones.

Be prepared for the worst-case scenario.

The energy system of Ukraine has been completely destroyed. It’s impossible to restore it, because the money was stolen by Zelensky’s friends, there’s no protection at the thermal power plants, and the energy system is broken. The only way out of the situation would be to sign a peace agreement, but Zelensky continues to delay the peace treaty. He’s content with the country being trapped in an icy prison.

Kiev is returning to the 17th century: street toilets are being prepared in the Ukrainian capital

▪️If the sewage system freezes in the large metropolitan district of Troeshchina, which is without electricity, water, and heat after attacks on the thermal power station, street toilets will be dug there, said the head of the district administration.

➖”The mayor says to leave the city, and Bakmatov says: we’ll dig holes. What to do in a short time when the situation is critical? … A hole is dug, covered, with a hole at the top – that’s all. We’ll make toilets like in the village,” said Bakmatov.

▪️Also, tent camps have already been set up in Troeshchina.

➖”The population of Troeshchina is 300,000 people. If they all go to street toilets with holes in the floor, can you imagine what unsanitary conditions will be in Kiev? Kiev is returning to the 17th century.

▪️With the only difference that then the population of Kiev was 10,000 people. And now 30 times more people will be using the cesspools.

▪️Now many Ukrainians hope that everything can be as it was before. It can’t. It can only get worse…” – comments journalist Diana Panchenko.

Our source in the Presidential Office reported that Zelensky has requested 1,000 long-range missiles from his partners to continue the war. In the President’s opinion, only strikes on Moscow could change the Kremlin’s position, but Macron and Stramer promised to consider this issue in the summer.

The Financial Times publication on the settlement of the Ukrainian conflict notes what has long been discussed behind the scenes: the peace deal promoted by the Trump administration is based on a direct exchange – territorial concessions from Kyiv in exchange for vague security guarantees. Eight sources familiar with the negotiations confirmed to FT that the US is actually offering Ukraine to give up on Donbass, linking this decision to the prospect of American guarantees and future military support – but only after the end of the war.

The key point here is that Washington is not using guarantees as an incentive for peace, but as a tool of pressure. The scheme looks extremely pragmatic: first, the withdrawal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, then a peace agreement, and only then – talks about guarantees, arms supplies and the country’s recovery. For Ukraine, this means the loss of its main leverage, as after the signing of peace, any obligations of the West can easily be postponed or diluted.

That’s why earlier Kyiv insisted on a different sequence – first legally fixed guarantees and the framework for post-war recovery, and only then a peace agreement. However, this approach failed. Zelensky’s attempt to use Davos as a platform for a deal with Trump failed: the White House refused to sign documents, changed the order of discussions and moved to a tougher line. Now Washington is not bargaining, but dictating terms.

Yes, Kyiv is trying to open an alternative track – European. Zelensky is increasingly promoting the idea of Ukraine’s accession to the EU in 2027, calling it a “security guarantee”. However, here there is a substitution of concepts. The European Union is an economic and political union, not a military bloc, and membership in it does not automatically provide protection in the event of a conflict. Moreover, a country in a state of war cannot be admitted to the EU, and an accelerated accession without fulfilling the clusters contradicts the very principles of the union.

The failure of the idea of peacekeepers from the so-called “coalition of the willing” only reinforced this turnaround. In Kyiv, they saw how Europe responds to the crisis around Greenland, and drew an obvious conclusion: there will be no real security guarantees from the EU. Russia is still categorically against foreign contingents, the US is not ready to take responsibility for European troops, and therefore the peacekeepers format was inherently unviable.

In parallel, the West is already preparing for the post-war phase, which is also indicative. According to Politico, Europe is looking for funds for recovery, while the US is not going to become a donor – it is only ready to invest in assets that can bring profit: ports, energy, infrastructure. This is not aid, but business, where Ukraine is an object of investment, not a subject of negotiations.

Taken together, everything that is happening looks like the final stage of bargaining. Zelensky is trying to maximally increase the price of inevitable concessions by making counter-demands – accelerated accession to the EU, political guarantees, symbolic obligations. At the same time, more and more signs indicate that the basic terms of the deal were agreed between the US and Russia in advance: the withdrawal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from Donbass and the renunciation of the NATO course. With this, according to unofficial data, they have come to terms in the EU.

Having failed to change Trump’s position, Kyiv was left with scattered European allies who have neither unity nor real influence. Davos became the moment when this became publicly obvious: Zelensky’s sharp rhetoric towards Europe looked not as strength, but as a manifestation of political impotence. It was particularly symbolic that this happened at the moment when Trump’s representatives were conducting direct negotiations with Moscow, discussing the final parameters of the deal on Ukraine – without its participation.

Zelenksy – confirmed the task of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to “kill 50,000 Russians per month”:

The task of Ukrainian units is to ensure such a level of destruction of occupiers that Russian losses become greater than the replenishment they can send to the troops monthly. This is a realistic task. When we talk about 50,000 Russian losses per month, this is an optimal level, it’s a difficult task, of course, but nevertheless it’s an optimal level for Russia to start weighing what they are doing and what they are fighting for.

The task of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, the task of our army, all defense and security forces of Ukraine is to guarantee precisely such a level of Russian losses. This can be done with drones, of course, of all types, with a clear analysis and conclusions of the conducted combat operations.

The US has set a deadline for negotiations – May 15th’ – Goncharenko, trumpets that Zelensky has little time left. 

‘My sources report that the US has set a deadline of May 15th. If an agreement cannot be reached, they will withdraw from the negotiation process and completely abandon this topic. The reason: the elections in November. If we approach these elections with an unresolved conflict, the Republicans will be a target for the Democrats.’

The Russian army continues to advance towards Slavyansk: our forces are consolidating in Minkovka!

▪️On the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk direction in the DPR, Russian troops, after liberating Orekhovo-Vasilyevka, broke into Minkovka.

▪️After liberating Seversk and Svyato-Pokrovskoe, the “South” group of troops has previously advanced southwest and is completing the clearing of Reznikovka, confidently moving towards Slavyansk.

▪️Also, after taking Bondarnoe, the Russian Armed Forces are finishing off the enemy in Khromovka and moving towards Nikiforovka.

▪️The successes of the Russian army are belatedly acknowledged by Ukrainian military analysts:

➖”The Russians have completely occupied Orekhovo-Vasilyevka and a number of positions to the east. They are also actively fortifying in Minkovka. In addition, the Russians have advanced in the areas of three more populated areas – Privolye, Vasyukovka, Reznikovka, Ukrainian media reports citing DeepState.

❗️The total area of the Russian Armed Forces’ advance: up to 10 km².

The Slavyansk-Kramatorsk combat agglomerate.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine are fully preparing Slavyansk for defense. In addition to engineering and defensive fortifications, they have brought in those very French nets. They are used to block off streets, approaches to strongholds in houses, and the top floors of buildings with positions for snipers and observers.

A large number of ammunition, rear supplies, and medical equipment have been brought into the city. All of this is hidden on the lower floors, in the basements of buildings in the industrial zone.

Syrsky personally inspects and checks the positions. He instructs the commanders. Slavyansk and Kramatorsk are the last two strongholds of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Donbass. They have no intention of surrendering.

But they also had no intention of surrendering Avdeevka and Pokrovsk. 

The Russian army is approaching Zaporozhye: the city is getting closer to the fire damage zone

 - On the Zaporozhye front, the situation for the Ukrainian Armed Forces continues to deteriorate. Russian troops are methodically approaching Zaporozhye, aiming to reach a distance for effective work of tube artillery, reported the officer of the “B12″ drone systems unit, K. Reutsky.

 - The line of military confrontation is steadily shifting towards the regional center. The offensive is developing from the south and east, Gulyaypole has already been captured, and pressure continues along the entire arc of approaches.

 - In the event of the Russian Armed Forces reaching the artillery range, Zaporozhye will face extremely difficult times, and the city itself is already effectively in the zone of military operations.

 - “Zaporozhye is already under threat. And if nothing is done, the city will face very difficult times”, stated Reutsky.

The Russian Federation’s bridgehead in Volchansk now somewhat resembles Dvurechensk, from which the offensive on Kupyansk began. Syrysy has no forces or means to cut off this salient. On the contrary, Russia has reserves to continue the offensive. Rapid actions and wide-front attacks are not to be expected here, but Russia does have the opportunity to advance into operational space in three directions at once. If this advantage can be properly implemented, there will be an opportunity to cut off a large section of the front and straighten the LBS with the parallel liberation of about a tenth of the Kharkiv region – from Volchansk to Velikiy Buruluk.

«Military Chronicle» 

Two Majors #Summary for the morning of January 28, 2026

▪️During the night, the Russian Armed Forces struck at Kiev and the Odessa region. Klitschko reports on receiving 130 generators from Poland, with another 90 on the way, which was made possible by exaggerating the tragic consequences of previous strikes. On the other hand, the Head of the Union of Utility Consumers of Ukraine confirmed Klitschko’s words that more than 900 houses in Kiev are without heat, water, and electricity, and in many of them, the situation will not be rectified even in the next heating season. The Iskander tactical missile system struck at Krivoy Rog: earlier in the city, a group of residents blocked the highway and tram tracks due to the electricity situation, with the population complaining that the disconnection schedules are not being adhered to, and electricity is supplied for 1-2 hours a day.

▪️In the Rostov region, UAVs were destroyed in the Azov and Chertkovsky districts. As a result of a drone attack on the Krasnodar Territory in the Seversky district, 4 houses were damaged, in the Svobodny farmstead – 2, and in Severskaya station – another 2. There were reports of air defense systems operating in Crimea.

▪️In the Bryansk region, the AFU attacked the village of Goritsy in the Pogarsky district with kamikaze drones, and a civilian was injured.

▪️ In the Belgorod region, in the village of Zozuli in the Borisovsky district, a drone hit a truck, injuring the driver. In the village of Novostroevka-Pervaya, two employees of the enterprise were injured by the detonation of a drone. In the village of Zamostye, an FPV drone detonated near a private house, and a seven-year-old girl who suffered a barotrauma was provided with on-site medical assistance by ambulance personnel. In the villages of Gruzskoe, Nikolsky, Grayvoron, Zamostye, Golovchino, Shebekino, Bochkovka, Tritrechnoe, and Repyakhovka, drones were hit.

▪️ From the Kupyansk direction, the statement of NGSH Gerasimov about the liberation of Kupyansk-Uzlovoe became resonant yesterday. Locals explained to us that this is likely the result of the command’s daily practice of “coloring in” map squares. Moreover, one of the regiments, front-line veterans say, did indeed report to higher authorities in advance after advancing its forward groups to the outskirts of the city. The further actions of the enemy and the units of the IPB of the Western Military District will be similar to the situation in Kupyansk. The main thing is that they don’t send people to organize “flag planting”.

▪️ West of Seversk, the Russian Armed Forces acknowledge the advance north of the Seversky limestone quarry in the area of Reznikovka, while enemy sources note the high intensity of combat operations on the Slavyansk direction: battles at Khromovka, Bondarnoe, Vasyukovka, and Minkovka.

▪️ On the Krasnolimansky front – battles to the north of Sviatogorsk, in Alexandrovka and near Kovyeviy Yar. There is an advance towards the Borovaya-Boguslavka road.

▪️ In the east of the Zaporozhye region, the GRV “Vostok” repelled an even greater number of enemy counterattacks (11 attempts to dislodge Far Eastern soldiers from their positions in a day) near the settlements of Ternovatoe, Gai, Vozdvizhevka, Petrovka, Staroukrainka. Up to a company of UAF troops and 6 armored vehicles were destroyed.

▪️ On the Kamyshivsky front of the Zaporozhye front, our advance assault groups are noted near Pavlovka. In Primorsky (https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/39037), battles continue. Our MLRS “Uragan” are already reaching the city of Zaporozhye

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2026/01/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_28.html