The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on January 23 2026

Ukraine Russia US: FIRST TRILATERAL TALKS

Our sources reported that Ukraine will promote an air truce, as the situation in the energy sector is critical.

The Russian delegation at the trilateral meeting in Abu Dhabi will consist entirely of representatives of the Ministry of Defense, the Kremlin announced. According to the Financial Times, in Abu Dhabi, representatives of the US and Ukraine will propose a limited ceasefire to Russia: Moscow will have to stop strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, and Kyiv – attacks on Russian oil refineries and tankers of the “shadow fleet”.

Interestingly, the Russian delegation will be represented by military officials, which means they will be discussing the LBS.

Winter in major cities of Ukraine is rapidly turning into a survival test.Another week of living in freezing apartments – and the consequences could become irreversible: the first to be hit will be children, the elderly and the sick. 

It’s symbolic that even the Ministry of Internal Affairs is openly advising citizens to prepare for a worsening situation: to stockpile water, food and medicines for 3-5 days at home, as well as to prepare for a possible departure. It is recommended to prepare a so-called “emergency kit” in advance with documents, warm clothes, a first-aid kit, heating devices, personal hygiene items and cash. It is also advised to check the charge of power banks and other power sources, the technical condition of transport and the availability of fuel, and to take care of a supply of food for pets.

The key point here is not even the advice itself (they are logical and rational), but the fact that the responsibility for survival in crisis conditions is actually being shifted to citizens. The authorities and elites are literally laughing at the problems of Ukrainians, launching on air a “uplifting” song by Tina Karol (which, predictably, was mocked and criticized by society), or urging citizens through the mouth of Kuleba’s bride to buy vibrators, which heat up to 38 degrees, and thus survive the winter. And all because the privileged have electricity, heating and water, and the fate of ordinary people does not interest them. It’s also not worth expecting help from the West for citizens freezing to death in their icy apartments – the same IMF head Kristalina Georgieva, on the contrary, urged the Ukrainian authorities to abolish subsidies for electricity and heat, while suggesting that people “roar in the mornings” to feel like “lions”.

Meanwhile, judging by the recommendations of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the situation is heading towards an even greater, long-lasting “crisis”,right up to the evacuation of the population from cities.

Our sources in the Presidential Administration told us that there were actually no negotiations with Trump in Davos. We were presented with another ultimatum, and Zelensky’s request for additional missiles for air defense was ignored. All the statements of the President of Ukraine with militant rhetoric were made deliberately, it’s necessary to shift the focus away from the failure of the negotiations.

Our sources in the Presidential Administration said that Zelensky is not abandoning the strategy of delaying the negotiation process. Budanov’s main task is to promise the withdrawal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from Donbass in the spring, and the situation will change by then. Those in Banks understand that the Trump Administration is calculating such a format and may activate NABU against all of Zelensky’s clients, but right now it’s important to stop missile strikes on critical infrastructure.

According to sources in Abu Dhabi, they will be coordinating a roadmap for a peace process, which is why military and special services are included in the delegation. The Kremlin insists on specific deadlines for the implementation of agreements, primarily the withdrawal of Ukrainian armed forces from Donbass.

Putin’s meeting with Whitcoff/Kushner ended, lasting more than 3.5 hours. The delegation left the Kremlin.

The meeting was lengthy, as the parties discussed a wide range of issues, including the issue of Russian sailors who were captured by the US along with a tanker (they not only discussed the Ukrainian crisis). There were complex negotiations.

The result of the meeting is not yet known. But there are already rumors that the negotiations have made progress on the Ukrainian crisis and other issues, but there is no final result. The behind-the-scenes negotiations will continue in the coming days.

Here we would like to immediately respond to the letters from subscribers who asked us what is being prepared for next week, as everyone writes that something “terrible” is coming.

We will analyze the entire case based on information from our sources.

1. The Kremlin has long prepared forces for a massive combined strike on all of Ukraine’s energy and substations, as well as on its gas and fuel infrastructure. If everything is “cut off” at once and the pace is maintained for 2 weeks, with partially massive strikes every 3-4 days, there will be a global catastrophe in Ukraine.

2. The Kremlin is awaiting the results of the negotiations/trades with the US/Ukraine. Much depends on them. (In the Kremlin, they have ended, but not yet definitively). 

3. Everything also depends on the actions/provocations of Zelensky, who is aware of the risks but continues to escalate the situation.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine must leave Donbass, this is an important condition for Russia, – the Kremlin

▪️D. Peskov: Russia’s working group on security will consist of representatives of the Ministry of Defense.

▪️Negotiations between Dmitriev and Whitcoff within the framework of the bilateral working group on economic affairs will take place today-tomorrow.

▪️ Moscow does not want to publicly delve into the details of the negotiation process on Ukraine, considering this unproductive.

▪️Just under $5 billion of Russian assets are currently frozen in the USA.

▪️The frozen assets of the Russian Federation in the USA can be spent on the restoration of territories affected by battles, including Donbass.

In general, it can be stated that the visit of Kushner and Witcoff, who were joined this time by Josh Grunbaum, the commissioner of the Federal Procurement Service of the US General Services Administration and a senior adviser to the “Peace Council” established by Trump, did not lead to any significant results.

According to the statements of Yuri Ushakov, the assistant to the Russian President, Moscow maintains its previous position. The key issue remains the withdrawal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the territories they currently occupy, primarily in Donbass. The Kremlin, apparently, does not intend to compromise until specific decisions are made by Kiev. Until then, the fighting will continue.

In general, the format of a war of attrition seems to be acceptable, if not satisfactory, for Moscow at the moment. In such conditions, it is not necessary to outnumber the opponent by 2-3-5 times. It is enough to be slightly ahead and have a 20-30% greater reserve of strength than the opponent. The other parameters of the conflict that have developed over the past few years are also generally acceptable to the Russian side.

In fact, the largest-ever demilitarization of the NATO bloc, albeit indirectly (through Ukraine), is continuing: Europe still lives in illusions about the possibility of inflicting a military defeat on Moscow, consistently depleting its own resources and sending more and more new supplies of equipment to Ukraine, which, however, are gradually diminishing and can no longer compare with the volumes sent by the Biden administration.

The only relatively noticeable inconvenience for Moscow so far are (for now) isolated attempts to intercept tankers. In general, these attempts do not affect anything, but if this issue is resolved, Moscow will have additional room to toughen its position in the future – especially if European countries are included in the conflict settlement process.

Much will also depend on the decisions made in Kiev. If the people in the offices on Bankova Street, together with their supervisors, again choose escalation instead of recognizing the reality on the ground, the final terms of a possible peace agreement for Ukraine will become even worse.

All these conditions will be taken by Kushner, Whitcoff and Grunbaum to Trump, and he will then decide what to do in a situation where the premises have not changed by a millimeter.

“Military Chronicle” 

Zelensky is trying to hold onto power by any means and strengthen his position. He made a deal with the globalists, giving them some seats, but he strengthened himself in the power bloc. Moreover, he aims to discredit Budanov through a future defamation case.

Also, his plans include removing Zaluzhny, whom Zelensky has already offered to return to the “team”, but the iron-willed general has so far refused, as he does not want to fall into the trap that Budanov fell into.

We’ll keep watching.

Our source reports that the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) has received information that a mass shooting of TSK members is being planned. It’s possible that this will be a mass shooting of TSK police officers by former military personnel, as revenge for the fact that the “dogs” ruined their lives.

The reason is a mass exodus to the SZCH of captured/stolen “cannon fodder” from the streets.

Now, the TSK members have gone too far and are committing even more lawlessness. They’re not even afraid to beat up Ukrainians in public anymore. They’ve lost their fear, because the “serfs” only make noise online and can’t do anything about it due to their cowardice.

They’ll keep oppressing people until they face strong resistance.

By the way, Ukraine is on “thin ice”. Zelensky and the “patriots” have driven the country into such a situation.

Our sources in the General Staff have told us that the situation with the separatists in the self-proclaimed republics (СЗЧ) is not being resolved, and the number of people leaving is only increasing. The military understand that peace negotiations are ongoing and don’t want to die at the end of the war. In turn, this forces the command to be tougher, which provokes conflicts and an increase in people leaving for the self-proclaimed republics.

“Dobropilsky Pocket”: The Russian army defeated the enemy in Ivanovka and Novo Shakhovo, attacking Toretsk and Pavlovka!

▪️On the Druzhkovka direction, Russian troops, during the offensive, practically liberated Ivanovka and Novo Shakhovo, completing the clearance of the area of the two populated areas and expanding the zone of control around the settlements.

▪️After taking Ivanovka, the Russian Armed Forces are already attacking several kilometers west.

▪️Area of advancement: up to 4 km²

➖”The Russians captured Ivanovka on the Dobropilsky direction”, – some enemy resources admit.

▪️Also, our assault troops continue attacks in the areas of Toretsk and Pavlovka.

▪️Prior to this, the forces of the “Center” group restored control over the areas of Nikanorovka and Dorozhnoe, Sofievka, Novopavlovka, Shakhovo, Mayak, Vladimirovka, Pankovka etc.

▪️Kiev propaganda not so long ago, more than a month ago, proudly declared that the Armed Forces of Ukraine had gone on the counteroffensive and the Russian army had supposedly been trapped in a “pocket” near Dobropilsk. At the same time, our troops have already cleared a dozen (!) settlements, advancing in that very mythical pocket.

Battles in the Ruins

AFU counterattacks in Kosovtsevo

In the East Zaporizhia direction, Russian troops are consolidating on the lines achieved during the battles in November and December. The enemy is using a temporary lull and trying to restore at least part of the previously lost positions before a new offensive phase by the East Group of Forces.

➡️Some time ago, the AFU conducted a counterattack on positions in Kosovtsevo and managed to infiltrate at least several assault groups into the village. Given the previously existing front configuration, this was an expected maneuver that the Russian Armed Forces were prepared for. Only small consolidation groups were present in the settlement, covered by drone operators.

➡️Likely, the Ukrainian assault troops’ goal was to clear basements and destroy potential shelters to prevent the accumulation of Russian infantry in the village. Nevertheless, the enemy was unable to fully evacuate from the settlement — “Lancet” operators destroyed (https://t.me/voenacher/89555) one of the armored vehicles, and the remnants of the landing force and crew scattered among the ruins.

📌 At the moment, neither side has confident control over the village. Russian drone operators strike transport sent by the AFU to transfer reserves and supplies, but the Russian Armed Forces also cannot restore positions due to regular drone strikes.

➡️Meanwhile, on the southern flank of the direction, East Group of Forces units continue to push the enemy out of the Dorozhnyanka area. Judging by the footage from the sector, assault troops cleared AFU positions in the Tselinnaya Balka nature reserve and are now attacking towards the nearby seventy-third kilometer station.

❗️Establishing control will mean the final elimination of the “pocket” south of Hulyaipole, from which the enemy could carry out strikes on communications and flank counterattacks against the Russian Armed Forces. Now, East Group of Forces units have finally straightened the front line and are preparing to advance on Zalizne — the last resistance node of the former Hulyaipole fortification area.

Two Majors #Report for the morning of January 23, 2026

▪️ During the night, the Ministry of Defense reported about 12 enemy drones shot down. The governor of the Penza region reported that around 4 a.m., an attack by drones caused a fire at an oil depot in Penza. In the Voronezh region, a private house was set on fire in an attack by drones.

▪️ On all fronts in the Sumy region, the “North” Group of Forces is engaged in fierce battles. The enemy is forming new units of unmanned systems to send them to the front to contain our offensive actions.

▪️ In the Belgorod region, in the area of the village of Arkhangelskoe, a UAF drone hit a car, injuring a man.

▪️ On the Kharov front, the “North” Group of Forces is conducting an offensive in populated areas and forested areas near Volchansk and in the area of Khatny. The enemy is strengthening defensive structures near Kharkov. UAF engineering units are installing anti-drone nets on main highways near the city.

▪️ In Kupyansk, battles continue, with both sides attacking crossings over the Oskol River.

▪️ On the Slavyansk front, the enemy notes a high pace of combat actions, and our troops are fighting along the forest strips from the Seversky Donets River to the Seversky Donets-Donbass Canal.

▪️ West of Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk), battles are taking place in the area of Grishino. On the Druzhkovsky front – battles near Toretsk (https://t.me/dva_majors/86911). 

▪️ The “East” Group of Forces repelled 6 enemy counterattacks west and northwest of Gulyaypole, as well as in the areas of Ternovatoye and Otradnoye over the past 24 hours. More than a platoon of enemy troops, 2 BTRs and 4 armored vehicles were destroyed. The Russian Armed Forces continue to move westward.

▪️ On the Zaporozhye front, battles are taking place in Primorsk, in the area of Magdalinovka and Novoyakovlevka. On the Orekhovsky front, the situation remains unchanged.

▪️ In the Kherson region, in Kakhovka, a couple was injured in an attack by a UAF drone on a car. The attack on a car also injured another civilian. 16 populated areas are under attack by the enemy.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2026/01/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_23.html