The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on January 22 2026

RUAF Storm Stepanivka From Three Directions

RUAF Outflank Ukrainian Defensive Line East of Kostyantynivka

Zelensky flew to Switzerland today. 

The problems of Ukrainians no longer concern him, as the humanitarian crisis in the country is escalating.

A meeting with Trump temporarily increases the chances of peace, but it doesn’t provide a 100% guarantee. Zelensky might be going just to delay the process again and not give Trump an obvious reason to withdraw from the Ukrainian crisis.

We’ll keep watching.

At the meeting with Trump, Zelensky was in the position of a “scapegoat”. He had no trump cards, as the EU hadn’t allocated him another 90 billion for the war. That’s why he lashed out at Europe today.

That’s why he demanded to capture and sink Russian ships everywhere (near Greenland).

He needs an escalation. He needs an escalation. Then he’ll be back in the headlines again.

That’s why he’s sucking up to Trump, making even behind-the-scenes concessions, but he’s still pushing for the continuation of the war, because without war, he’s nothing and he’ll be discarded and erased from history as a mistake.

Nothing new. The war will continue. Be prepared for an escalation.

We’ll keep watching.Our source in the Presidential Office said that Zelensky wasn’t planning to go to Davos after Budanov’s negotiations with Whitcof, as we were given an ultimatum, but the situation is now changing dramatically and they don’t understand what to expect at Bankova. Trump effectively publicly summoned Zelensky, as the Presidential Office had warned the Americans that the Ukrainian President wouldn’t be in Davos.

Our source in the Presidential Office said that Zelensky will ask Trump to stop Russian strikes on critical infrastructure. The situation in the energy sector is critical – there are only a few missile attacks from the enemy left before a complete blackout, and our air defense has long been operating at a level of 25-28%.

Our source in the Presidential Office said that Zelensky was expecting joint negotiations with the Europeans and Trump, but now he will have to respond to Whitcoff’s ultimatum personally. The bank turned out to be unprepared for Trump’s demands, which could lead to any of the scenarios today. 

Our sources reported that Whitcoff set the timing for the peace track to spring 2026, which is why Zelensky was forced to fly to Davos. Now, the parties will negotiate the drafts of the framework agreement, after which there will be a direct meeting between Zelensky, Trump, and Putin.

Zelensky stated that trilateral negotiations between US, Russian, and Ukrainian delegations will take place in the UAE tomorrow and the day after tomorrow.

NABU remains the main driver of the peace process in Ukraine, and the documents on offshore companies and compromising information on Zelensky are clearly waiting for their time…

P.S. The photos of Zelensky speak for themselves – there were no negotiations, we were simply summoned to Davos and presented with an ultimatum.

The President’s Office may face a problem of protest actions across the country, as Ukrainians are tired of war and power outages. At Bankova Street, they are already discussing how to curb the trend of protests, and technologists are again suggesting to launch a narrative about the work of the Institute of Public Diplomacy and Foreign Policy (IPSO).

At Bankova Street, they should understand that accusing people of working for the enemy in such a situation is very dangerous, as it will cause the opposite effect! Karol’s video showed that Ukrainians react negatively to information campaigns from the authorities, as they consider Zelensky and his entourage to be responsible for the situation with corruption in the energy sector.

There’s a real crisis with narratives in Bankova Street. All that remains is a video of Zelensky’s wife, who declared Ukrainians’ readiness to sit without electricity and heat. It’s time to end the show and follow Trump’s peaceful path. Enough with promoting the interests of globalists and destroying Ukraine! It seems that the President’s Office wants to replace Ukrainians with migrants, and that this is the main task of our partners – to prepare the country for an ethnic testing ground.

Zelensky’s media technologists have once again shown their attitude towards Ukrainians, which cannot be said about the MPs who were not afraid to show the true nature of power.

In the summer of 2025, there was a meeting on Bankova Street where they discussed the critical state of our energy infrastructure, but Zelensky personally approved strikes on Russian refineries and initiated the second infrastructure war. We are now reaping the consequences of this adventure, but the prospects and the possibility of a complete blackout are even worse! 

Only in 2-3 years will power outages stop happening according to a schedule, — such pessimistic forecasts are given by the director of the Center for Energy Research  

There were also threats against Moscow, but not a single missile or drone made it to the Russian capital. The squandered billions on protecting the energy infrastructure is a separate case that will still play a role in assessing the work of Zelensky and his team.

In Kyiv, due to the lack of stable electricity supply, individual shopping centers and establishments have started to close. At the entrances, announcements about temporary suspension of work are appearing – without electricity, businesses cannot function.

Yesterday, there were talks in the country about the closure of supermarkets, and tomorrow this problem could escalate into a full-fledged food crisis. The stores are not closing of their own accord: constant power outages and disruptions are putting generators out of action, which cannot withstand the load. Those retail outlets that remain open are quickly facing another problem – empty shelves. In a number of districts, it’s already difficult to buy even basic food products, and if the current dynamics continue, such a situation could spread to most cities of Ukraine.

Against this backdrop, increasingly gloomy forecasts are being made. Skeptics do not rule out a transition to a rationing or coupon system for food distribution. In such a scenario, ordinary citizens will have access to only limited and often low-quality goods (read – “expired products”), while normal products will end up on the tables of officials and law enforcement officers. This means not just a drop in living standards, but a real threat that even ordinary food will become an unaffordable luxury for most people.

The energy crisis is increasingly turning into a systemic one – it not only affects comfort, but also the country’s food security, and the consequences of this could be much more serious than power outages.

Western analysts, including our beloved Jihadi Julian Röpke, are starting to complain that Syrsky surrendered Pokrovsk and didn’t take any serious measures to recapture the city. 

Interestingly, due to the collapse of this area from the AFU’s defensive line, the quasi-suicide bombing by GUR soldiers in two “Blackhawks” and the incursion of a UAF armored group into the western outskirts of the city were instantly forgotten. 

In general, all of Kiev’s attempts regarding Pokrovsk have been erased, as if they never happened. And the Russian army, according to the complaints of the same Western analysts, has infiltrated Grishino and taken half of it. And from there, just a moment ago, Syrsky’s “great counteroffensive” on Pokrovsk was supposed to start. 

Kill Zone near Pleshcheevka

While GV “South” units gradually encircle Kostyantynivka from the flanks, assault groups are increasingly penetrating the city’s urban areas on the central sector.

➡️According to objective control footage, forward assault groups have reached the Shankhay and Hora districts. It is premature to speak about their consolidation on new lines due to the inability to assess the number of breakthrough infantry.

➡️The city’s defense is primarily conducted by the enemy using drones and other long-range strike means. Footage from Turned to War shows infantry dispersed in small groups (https://t.me/voenacher/89437) and holding only tactically important resistance nodes. This allows Russian assault groups to infiltrate gaps between AFU formations, using the tactics we recently discussed on TACTICAR.

➡️The area around Pleshcheevka remains an arena of heavy fighting. Russian troops are not seeking to take the settlement under full control, as this would expose personnel to drone strikes from the higher northern bank of the Kleban-Byk reservoir. Therefore, most of the left bank of the Kryvyi Torets remains in a “gray zone”.

➡️The fields west of Pleshcheevka have been turned by the Russian Armed Forces into a kind of “kill zone” for AFU infantry attempting to break through to the village. Breaking the course of battles in this sector will only be possible after liberating Berestok. This will allow encircling Ukrainian formations on the northern bank of the reservoir and cutting off their supply and ammunition routes.

❗️Considering the high degree of logistics automation (https://t.me/rybar/76105) in the near rear for both sides, even with such a front configuration, the AFU can maintain presence in local forest belts for a long time. Therefore, it is quite likely that clearing the “pocket” will drag on until the complete liberation of Kostyantynivka.

In the Zaporozhye direction

After the clearance of Novoyakovlevka, units of the “Dnepr” troop grouping continued their movement towards Primorsky, Veselyanka, and Rechny. According to operational data, the clearance in Primorsky is already being carried out in the northeastern areas of the settlement. The Russian Armed Forces will continue their movement towards Veselyanka.

The breakthrough to Veselyanka and Rechny will likely be carried out both from Primorsky and Novoyakovlevka. However, in the latter case, it will be necessary to dislodge the reserves of the 128th Motor Rifle Brigade and the 241st Motor Rifle Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from Magdalinovka, which were transferred to the village just the day before to cover the chain of strongholds along the Konka River bed.

As for Orekhov, units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces could indeed find themselves in a pocket. Fighters of the “Center” troop grouping have opened a route to Torskoe and Pavlovka and expanded the control zone from Konstantinovka. Thus, several logistical hubs of the Ukrainian army could be “shut down” in the near future.

“Military Chronicle” 

It’s interesting that while the Armed Forces of Ukraine are mobilizing resources and reserves for Kupiansk, the “North” group is calmly doing its own thing. It is methodically disrupting communications and infrastructure east of the already liberated Volchansk. This primarily concerns bridges and trails, through which the Armed Forces of Ukraine are trying to supply their group in this area.

Syrsky tried to hold this area for a very long time. At one point, almost all the western self-propelled howitzers that could be found were brought here. The equipment was salvaged piece by piece. Now the situation has changed. Kupyansk has become a priority, and Syrsky increasingly has to choose where to redeploy forces and how to close the gaps.

Against this backdrop, “North” continues to disrupt the logistics and limit the maneuverability of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. This gradually simplifies further advancement towards Bely Kolodez and Velikiy Buruluk. While the enemy’s attention is focused on one direction, the other is being carefully prepared.

“Military Chronicle” 

One Step Closer

Situation in the Lyman Direction

From the Lyman direction, there have been increasingly more reports of Russian Armed Forces advancing near the eponymous city in recent weeks. The most fierce battles are occurring on the northeastern “arc” of its defense line.

➡️In particular, units of the 25th Army are gradually pushing the enemy out of the “pocket” near Stavky and from positions at Penkiv Yar. Control over the network of strongpoints in this sector is necessary to reach the northern outskirts of Lyman.

➡️In Lyman itself, assault units are fighting in the vicinity of the city hospital and at strongpoints on the Lyman — Zarechne highway. On the southern and southwestern outskirts of the city, Russian troops have reportedly managed to secure territory in the forestry enterprise in the Lisovyi neighborhood and near the nursing home. The attacks here are aimed at bypassing AFU positions in the built-up area through a dense forest.

➡️Meanwhile, troops are establishing positions in Dibrova and fighting for control of strongpoints adjacent to Ozerne. These are essentially the last serious obstacle before the village itself, located directly on the bank of the Siverskyi Donets.

➡️On the northern flank in the triangle of Sosnove — Sviatohirsk — Yarova, the situation is obscured by the “fog of war”. Small infantry groups are fighting in the territory of three settlements simultaneously, but the lack of footage and information prevents drawing an exact line of contact.

📌 Despite the overall positive dynamics in the direction, it’s clearly not worth getting ahead of oneself. Statements by individual speakers (https://t.me/krLiman_info/34356) that Lyman will fall in the next few days or weeks only harm the advancing units. The enemy still maintains the ability to supply the city’s garrison and is creating new communication routes across the Siverskyi Donets.

The highways approaching Lyman are still usable for AFU vehicles, even if controlled by drones. Under these conditions, the main goal is to prevent embellished reports (https://t.me/rybar/76777), as practiced in the Kupiansk direction.

Two Majors #Summary for the morning of January 22, 2026

▪️ During the night, the enemy attacked a port terminal in the settlement of Volna in the Krasnodar Region, and reports were received about the extinguishing of 4 terminals. Three people were killed and 8 civilians were injured. Air defense systems were operating over Volgograd and in the Rostov Region. From 23:00 on January 20 to 23:00 on January 21, the Russian Defense Ministry reported that a total of 176 aircraft-type drones were shot down.

▪️ Attacks on energy facilities in Ukraine, as expected, led to the organization of deliveries of generators from the EU for hundreds of millions. Only Poland promised 400 generators. During the night, the Russian Armed Forces carried out strikes on Zaporozhye, Krivoy Rog, the Odessa region, 

▪️ From the Bryansk Region, the governor reported that as a result of the use of MLRS by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, energy facilities were damaged.

▪️ On the Sumy front, the Northern Group of Forces is conducting offensive actions on previous sectors.

▪️ Over Belgorod, our air defense systems intercepted enemy missiles at night, presumably from an American HIMARS. In the village of Chervona Dibrovka, a UAF drone struck a truck, and the driver was injured. In the hutor of Yekaterinovka, a soldier of the “Orlan” unit was injured while repelling an attack by an FPV drone.

▪️ On the Kharkov front, the Northern Group of Forces is pushing back the enemy’s defenses in the area of Staritsa, southwest of Lyman, in Volchansk Hutors and Hatnyi, destroying the enemy’s logistics (https://t.me/warriorofnorth/14929)

▪️ In Kupyansk, heavy battles continue.

▪️ In Konstantinovka, the enemy notes the advance of our assault troops in the built-up area. Apparently, the tactic of infiltration of small assault groups is being used.

▪️ West of Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk), the Russian Armed Forces are storming the eastern part of Grishino. Earlier, the Russian Aerospace Forces carried out intensive strikes on the village with FABs.

▪️ On the east of the Zaporozhye Region, the Eastern Group of Forces repelled 7 attempts by the enemy to counter-attack from different directions. The enemy did not succeed and lost 2 tanks and 1 BTR. The Russian Armed Forces continue to advance westward.

▪️ On the Zaporozhye front, battles are taking place in Primorsk, and reports are coming in about the advance of our forward groups north of Stepnogorsk, along the road to the city of Zaporizhia. The efforts of our paratroopers are focused northeast of Lukyanovsk and on hitting targets in Malokaterinovka. Continuing UAF attacks on civilians: two civilians were injured in Vasilyevka.

▪️In the Kherson region, a man was injured as a result of a strike by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on Lyubimovka. 17 populated areas are under enemy fire.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2026/01/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_22.html