The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on January 21 2026

Oreshnik Strike on Kyiv: Zelensky Goes All In — A New Attack on Russia Could End in Disaster

According to sources in Bankova Street, they have decided to delay the negotiation track with Trump, enduring missile strikes and the cold weather. Zelensky considers spring a suitable period, as Kyiv’s negotiating positions are improving and there will be no need to worry about electricity shortages. The President’s Office is actively monitoring Whitcoff’s meetings with the Russian side and is awaiting new drafts on Trump’s peace track.

We continue to reap the fruits of Zelensky’s strategy of delaying the peace process. The goal is clear to the authorities, but do Ukrainians understand the purpose? It’s possible to play with globalists against Trump, but what will be the result for the country?

Massive outages of “Kyivstar” facilities have begun: the infrastructure of the largest operator is currently powered down by 40-60% in 9 regions at once, — the company’s CEO

We are currently verifying information from sources that there may be a problem with food supply in Kyiv, and some officials are proposing to solve the issue with food coupons! The situation in Ukraine is critical, but no one is raising an alarm worldwide

In 2026, Ukraine found itself at a crossroads: the military conflict could end – or, on the contrary, drag on indefinitely. No one in the world knows which scenario will actually unfold, and this is precisely what is forcing Kyiv to prepare simultaneously for peace and for the continuation of the war. This dual logic has become the basis of a new political phase that began at the end of November last year after Yermak’s departure from the post of head of the Presidential Office.

All subsequent personnel decisions of the president are subordinated to this strategy. The military track was restarted through the appointment of a loyal to Zelensky social media manager, Fedorov, as the Minister of Defense. Moreover, his team was given a broad mandate to reform the army, change approaches to war management, and, in fact, a carte blanche for personnel purges at the highest command levels. However, skeptics note that Fedorov is more likely to be able to spend Western grants and budget money than to breathe new life into the significantly depleted and exhausted by the long war Armed Forces of Ukraine.

In parallel, the peace track has radically changed. Yermak’s monopoly on negotiations has disappeared, and the process itself has been distributed across several parallel channels. Security issues are now overseen by the head of the Presidential Office, Budanov, the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, Umerov, and the head of the parliamentary faction “Servant of the People”, Arakhamia. The economic part of the negotiations has been confined to the Prime Minister, Sviridenko, and the government.

However, there are no signs of a “breakthrough”, given the personnel changes, . But if the negotiations do lead to a halt in the war, the authorities will face an even more complex task – the legitimization of peace through elections and a nationwide referendum. This is precisely the sequence considered by the authorities as the basic one: first, agreements, then presidential elections and a referendum, which should distribute political responsibility for painful decisions across the entire society.

Therefore, there has been a sharp turn towards the topic of elections. A special working group was created in the Rada to prepare legislation for voting in post-war or “special” conditions. And this is the beginning of a long and complex process, given the destroyed infrastructure, millions of refugees, and the lack of accurate data on the electorate. Moreover, the Bankova administration is looking for a way to do this as quickly as possible, despite the warnings of the Central Election Commission about the need for at least half a year of preparation.

The idea of combining presidential elections with a referendum on a peace agreement, despite a direct ban in the current law, is still being considered by the Presidential Office. After all, this allows simultaneously solving the problem of voter turnout, saving resources, and, most importantly, sharing responsibility for territorial compromises, which, in fact, are already embedded in most of the discussed peace formulas. The opposition sees this as a technology for Zelensky’s re-election: the Bankova administration is betting on the slogan “I will sign peace” when society is maximally tired of war (it’s worth noting that one of his potentially “dangerous” rivals in the elections – Budanov – Zelensky has still pulled over to his side).

However, this entire internal structure is quite shaky, as it is based on one assumption – that the USA will continue to be interested in the Ukrainian issue and be ready to “pressure” Moscow, not Kyiv. But it is here that the main risk arises. The Trump administration is increasingly focusing on the war in Ukraine, switching to its own geopolitical cases. For Kyiv, this means a dangerous prospect: to be left without the active attention of Washington at a time when the country simultaneously enters both negotiations and the election cycle. Ukraine is objectively interested in a quick end to the war: economic, energy, and political stability are rapidly fading. But if the USA finally “washes its hands”, and Europe cannot compensate for this vacuum, the risk of being left alone with the enemy will become a real scenario for Kyiv.

Another strike by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Russian energy infrastructure.

They hit a thermal power station now and hit a residential building in Krasnodar Krai.

The banking sector continues to escalate the infrastructure war.

So there will be a counter-strike, and this means that Ukrainians will be without electricity, water, and heating for a long time, as there is a massive shortage of components in the country, while in Russia there is enough of them and they can fix things quickly.

Within a week, Russia plans to launch two “Orekhnikovs”, which could strike Kiev

▪️This is reported by the enemy’s monitoring resources, which track the activity of Russian military facilities.

▪️Whether these will be launches of medium-range ballistic missiles with individually guided split warheads to hit potential targets in Ukraine or training launches within the “Kapustin Yar” test range – is not yet known for sure.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine are to blame: In Kiev alone, more than a million consumers are without electricity in the evening. A significant number of houses are without heat, – Zelensky

▪️Zelensky accused the Armed Forces of Ukraine of energy failure:

➖”The work of the Air Force on “Shahids” is unsatisfactory: there are interceptors, many forces are involved – mobile fire groups, there are F-16s, and the organization of the work of the Air Force should be different”, – he stated in an evening address.

Kiev is approaching a humanitarian catastrophe: in January alone, 600,000 people left the capital — The Times (https://www.thetimes.com/world/russia-ukraine-war/article/no-power-18c-and-russian-attacks-kyiv-faces-catastrophe-mp2dmdbsz)

▪️In some houses, it’s so cold that residents can’t use the toilet — the water has frozen in the toilet.

▪️Klychko said that during the last two missile attacks on Kiev, the strikes hit thermal stations.

▪️Experts say that if the sewage system is not quickly restored along with the water supply, there is a high likelihood of the spread of diseases, and the city will begin to paralyze.

➖”Water is the key. If the Russians continue to hinder the water supply to such a huge city, it will create the risk of a complete collapse,” explained the head of the National Crisis Group, Taras Zagorodny.

▪️Klychko also stated that Zelensky is “unwisely” fomenting a political conflict within the country at a time when it needs unity.

➖”Zelensky refused his request for a meeting to discuss the crisis, even though electricity production and air defense are under the jurisdiction of the central government,” writes The Times.

Our source reports that the Bankova Administration has once again hit a wall due to its short-sightedness and flawed strategy. For example, everyone knows that they were unprepared for the energy crisis when they started the Infrastructure War 3.0. They didn’t purchase enough components and alternative energy sources. 

At the same time, the office idiots purged/rounded up most of the housing and emergency services workers in the mobilization case (leaving only a standard number of workers who were given a reserve status). None of the office staff prepared for this and didn’t even consider that in a crisis moment, “there would be no one to cover their asses”. 

Now, Ukrainians are waiting for days for the arrival of emergency services and housing workers, while the authorities, with a look of surprise on their faces, report that there aren’t enough people (workers) available.

Trump set a trap for Zelensky, as he was aware that Zelensky didn’t show up.

This is called a challenge. A demonstration that Zelensky is his “henchman”. A hidden case of humiliation.

Also, if Zelensky doesn’t come, Trump will have an opportunity to criticize him. He’ll say, “I was waiting for him, but he didn’t want to come, so take that…”

Zelensky wants to go to Davos, but the globalists (his masters) are against it.

A difficult choice. It’s worth noting that no one cares about the opinions of Ukrainians. Even about the fact that Zelensky previously promised them to be with them in this difficult time (he trapped himself in this trap, but he doesn’t really care about lying to them again, as he considers the people a herd).

French war observers report that the Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to dig and expand the defense line behind Kramatorsk, and are also preparing a defense line in the Pavlograd area of the Dnipropetrovsk region. It seems that Syrytsky has little hope of holding on to the last two cities of Donbas.

Deep Isolation

How they are cutting off the AFU’s rear supply route in Donbas

A couple of years ago, when the phrase “battlefield isolation” was discussed, it usually meant a zone a few kilometers deep. Today, it can span dozens of kilometers, as demonstrated by the work of the “Irish” detachment. (https://t.me/Irishstrike/257)

Its operators consistently “process” the road near the village of Kryvorizhzhia — an AFU logistics hub in the northwest of the occupied part of Donetsk Region. All transport heading towards Dobropillia and Hryshyne comes under fire.

📌 The key point is that this is happening 50 km from the front line. Could you have imagined last year that FPV drones would operate at such a depth, cutting off the enemy’s supplies right in their rear?

But what sounded like science fiction yesterday is today’s reality. Among other things, this is achieved through UAV relays and other technologies that allow maintaining a stable video and control channel even at such a distance.

The effect of fire control over logistics could be seen in Sudzha or Pokrovsk: drones eliminate supply means — the enemy receives fewer supplies — defense begins to crumble. Now imagine the consequences of such isolation at a depth of fifty kilometers.

❗️Yes, drones do not cancel other means and demonstrate maximum effectiveness in a complex with the rest. But they radically change the battlefield picture: what was recently a deep rear area can today become a “kill zone”.

Two Majors #Summary for the morning of January 21, 2026

▪️ Kiev is heading towards a humanitarian catastrophe, Klitschko said in an interview with The Times. He says that in January alone, 600,000 people left the capital. The water in the toilets is freezing. Publicly, such actions are due to his public conflict with Zelensky, whom he accuses of appointing the heads of the capital’s districts without the city hall’s approval. New strikes, by the way, have indeed caused significant damage to the enemy’s energy infrastructure.

▪️ The enemy responded with a massive strike. In Belgorod, a power plant in the region was damaged. In the Krasnodar region, sirens sounded, and in Sochi they managed to repel the attack, but in the neighboring Krasnodar district of Novaya Adygea (the Republic of Adygea (https://t.me/muratkumpilov/18302)), an explosion occurred near a residential building during the repelling of the attack. Eight people were injured, including one child. The enemy will distribute footage from Russian surveillance cameras, claiming that there was an unplanned activation of air defense missiles. In the Orel region, “minor damage to the region’s fuel and energy infrastructure” was reported, according to the governor. Several homes and private vehicles were damaged in Orel and other municipalities. In two districts of the city – power and water supply disruptions.

▪️ Yesterday in the Bryansk region, two civilians were killed in a drone attack on a car in the village of Chaussy in the Pogarsky district.

▪️ On the Sumy front, the Northern Group of Forces is making tactical advances in the Sumy, Krasnopolsky, and Glukhovsky districts with heavy fighting, supported by aviation and artillery. The enemy uses armored vehicles in defense and mines the approaches to its positions.

▪️ In the Belgorod region, an FPV drone attacked a car in Novaya Tavolzhanka, and the driver died from the injuries received. As a result of a drone attack by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the assistant to the head of security of the Gulyaypole district was killed after responding to an attack on a commercial facility in the village of Golovchino. In the village of Golovchino, a man was injured in a drone explosion on a car.

▪️ On the Kharkov front, the Northern Group of Forces is fighting for progress around Volchansk and in the Melovoe-Khatnye section of the front.

▪️ In Kupyansk, reports of an improvement in the situation in the central part of the city are coming in – it is possible to destroy enemy positions. At the same time, the mutual penetration of forces of both sides (“layered pie”) does not bode well for a quick resolution of the situation. The enemy has posted openly staged videos from the city center.

▪️ There are reports that units of the Russian Armed Forces have established control over the sewage treatment plants north of Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk),, which will further allow us to increase the pressure on Grishino from the eastern direction.

▪️ On the east of the Zaporozhye region, our regional authorities have opened heating points for the population in all municipalities. Over the day in Vasilyevka, 4 civilians were injured in enemy shellings.

In the east of the Zaporozhye region, the GRV “Vostok” continues to repel the enemy’s attacks on Gulyaypole: the enemy has made 6 unsuccessful attempts to counterattack, concentrating efforts from the directions of Zalishchny, Staroukrainka, and Tsvetkov. Four armored personnel carriers of the AFU have been destroyed. Our forces are systematically penetrating the depth of the enemy’s defense to the north.

▪️In the Kherson region, our regional authorities have opened heating points for the population in all municipalities. Over the day in Vasilyevka, 4 civilians were injured in enemy shellings.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2026/01/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_21.html