The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on January 18 2026

Russia Breaks Through 10 km Near Kramatorsk — Ukraine Is Losing 3 Major Cities at Once!

The Deep Roots of the Ukraine War

On Bankova Street, the position of some deputies and officials, as well as elites, on the need to urgently reach a deal on a peaceful path is well-known. All these processes are causing a split among the elites and an increase in internal opposition to Zelensky, who is trying to eliminate opponents under the pretext of a protracted war.

Deputies of the Rada are ready to give up on Donbass in order to end the war, – Die Welt

Ukrainian deputies are considering the possibility of a territorial compromise and giving up on Donbass in order to end the war.

“Yes, we need to compromise, even if it’s very painful. And yes, we need to give up on Donbass. This is not my personal opinion, but the position of many parliamentarians and many people here. We need a ceasefire at any cost,” the publication quotes the words of a deputy.

The deputy refused to speak publicly, as his political career “would have ended immediately” due to pressure from the presidential office and special services. At the same time, a contrary position – on continuing the war and trying to regain lost territories – still exists in Ukraine, the correspondent notes.

It’s worth considering another important geopolitical factor – Greenland, which is being talked about a lot now and could become a factor in supporting Ukraine. In the EU, they are already openly stating that it’s necessary to negotiate with Putin and establish a separate line of communication with the Kremlin.

Trump’s plans around Greenland are already hitting Ukrainian positions in the West. European capitals have been drawn into a new security and diplomatic crisis and are forced to shift political attention and resources to where, in their opinion, the fate of transatlantic relations is being decided. Ukraine in this configuration is leftwith less and less room.

Europe appears confused and preoccupied with attempts to stop Trump on the Greenland issue. Moreover, against this backdrop, there are growing sentiments in the EU in favor of “freezing” the Ukrainian track and seeking a compromise with Moscow. Support for Kyiv risks decreasing, and aid programs may gradually be scaled back, because priorities are changing right before our eyes.

It’s telling that right now in Europe, statements are being made that would have been considered politically impossible not long ago. CDU leader Merz directly stated the need for a compromise with Russia, linking it to the future stability of the continent and the possibility of “looking confidently into the future after 2026″. This is a signal not only to Moscow, but also to Kyiv: the EU’s patience and unity are no longer unconditional.

In parallel, Brussels is discussing the idea of appointing a separate EU negotiator for dialogue with Putin. According to Politico, among the candidates are former Italian Prime Minister Draghi and Finnish President Sipilä. The idea is being actively promoted by Macron and Meloni, who have already secured the support of the European Commission and a number of countries.

The logic of the supporters of this initiative is simple: the EU fears that the US may agree with Russia behind Europe’s back, leaving it with a fait accompli. At the same time, Europeans are afraid of another scenario – that direct negotiations with Putin will legitimize his positions and split the union from within. As a result, the EU is torn between its own fears, and Ukraine becomes a hostage to this uncertainty.

The Greenland crisis has shown:that as soon as the West faces a new major problem, the Ukrainian issue ceases to be an unconditional priority. And the further this turbulence goes, the higher the risk that “Ukraine fatigue” in Europe will start turning into concrete political decisions.

 Ukrainian deputies are ready to give up on Donbass for the sake of a ceasefire — Die Welt

 - Deputies of the Verkhovna Rada are considering the possibility of a territorial compromise and giving up on Donbass in order to end the war. 

 - “Yes, we need to compromise, even if it’s very painful. And yes, we need to give up on Donbass. This is not my personal opinion, but the position of many parliamentarians and many people here. We need a ceasefire at any cost,” the publication quotes a Ukrainian parliamentarian as saying.

 - The deputy refused to speak publicly, as in this case, her political career would “end instantly” due to pressure from the presidential administration and special services. At the same time, a contrary position — to continue the war and attempt to regain lost territories — still exists in Ukraine, notes the correspondent.

Zelensky decided that, since he can’t cut off Russia’s electricity, he could instead black out the territories of Ukraine controlled by the Russian Federation in response.

In Melitopol, electricity was cut off after the airstrikes.

As we can see, Zelensky didn’t want to give up on mutual strikes on energy infrastructure. He simply chose an easier path.

The enemy is attacking the Zaporozhye region: Melitopol is without electricity after an attack.

▪️This was reported by the authorities of the Russian region.

▪️Ukrainian propagandists are writing about an attack on a substation in Melitopol and publishing videos.

Ice apocalypse in Kiev

▪️In the first video, people are making bonfires from Christmas trees in a trash container in Teremki, — report eyewitnesses and local channels.

▪️In photos and videos, the entrances of Kyiv buildings are covered with ice from the inside. In the capital, dozens of houses have been without heating for more than a week.

▪️Ice-covered entrances and backyard bonfires in barrels – a new reality for the capital of a decommunized state. And at the same time, the Ukrainian authorities will proudly say – everything has been fixed 🤷‍♂️

- RVvoenkor

Kharkov without light and heat: energy on the verge of collapse, seriously damaged energy facilities

▪️The Gauleiter of the city of Terikhov announced extremely serious damage to a critical infrastructure facility after today’s strike. Objects in the Industrial District, which provided the city with heat and electricity, were hit.

▪️Terikhov stressed that this is not a local accident that can be quickly fixed. The damage affected the city’s life-support system itself, and with each new strike, the restoration of centralized heat and electricity supply becomes an increasingly difficult task.

▪️According to the mayor, Kharkov’s energy sector is in an extremely critical state: reserves are limited, the load in freezing conditions is at a peak, and any new destruction immediately reduces the chances of stabilizing the situation.

On nighttime air strikes 

It is reported that ten “Geraniums” attacked critical infrastructure facilities in the Odessa region, in the port city of Kyhlia. Likely, the strike hit a solar power station supplying the port and surrounding areas with electricity.

An air alert was declared in Kiev. Air strikes on energy facilities in the Zaporozhye region and Kharkov have also been recorded.

In the Sumy region, an air strike destroyed a TCC building in Belopolye, eliminating a portion of the staff.

“Military Chronicle” 

Freeing of Pryluki

The Russian army’s offensive in the East Zaporizhia direction continues. Just yesterday, it was announced (https://t.me/rybar/76782) about freeing Zhovtneve (Elenokonstandinivka), and now Pryluki has officially come under the control of the Russian Armed Forces.

Guardsmen of the 394th motorized rifle regiment of the 127th division have thereby increased the bridgehead beyond Haichur, and, even more importantly — beyond the enemy’s second line of defense in the Zaporizhia Region.

➡️The 12-kilometer line formed between Haichur and the railway has a very high potential. After potentially freeing Ternovate and closing the “pocket” south of Huliapole, the Russian Armed Forces will be able to advance along a relatively wide front.

📌However, one should not get ahead of oneself. The enemy is building a new defensive line along Rizdvyanka — Vozdvyzhivka — Verkhnia Tersa. Very soon, the Russian Armed Forces will have to break through it, and Russian aviation has long been working on AFU positions here.

Assault and Capture

South of Huliapole, footage has emerged demonstrating the Russian Armed Forces’ successes both in repelling attacks and making advances.

Members of the 108th Territorial Defense Brigade, temporarily subordinated to the 225th Rifle Regiment, surrendered to the Far Eastern soldiers from the 35th Army’s Vostok Group. Considering these individuals were captured near the railway and subsequently evacuated in a dense column through Dorozhnianka (https://t.me/ne_rybar/13925), the enemy has lost nearby forest belts.

❗️The situation for the AFU continues to deteriorate, with the Russian army liberating Zaporizhia Region through combat, and the bridgehead beyond Haichur (https://t.me/rybar/76798) is expanding.

Offensive on Slavyansk

On the Slavyansk direction, Russian Armed Forces units continue to advance on a broad front, developing success after freeing Zakotne (https://t.me/rybar/76780). Today, footage with flags appeared online from the western part of the settlement.

🔻Where is the offensive happening?

▪️Units of the 3rd Army of the Southern Military District are successfully advancing towards the line of Kryva Luka — Kaleniki, attacking along the line Zakotne — Reznikivka.

These heights will somewhat facilitate the offensive of neighboring units from the Western Military District, who are fighting beyond the Siverskyi Donets for Dibrova and Ozerne, and are storming the outskirts of Lyman.

▪️The situation is more complex to the south — heavy fighting continues for Reznikivka, with the enemy attempting counterattacks across the fields in Svyato-Pokrovske, but cannot dislodge the fighters of the 123rd Mechanized Brigade.

▪️The southernmost section, along the line Petrivske — Vasyukivka — Bondarne is causing serious concerns. There are local successes, but claims about freeing Bondarne and Petrivske (Pazeno (https://t.me/rybar/76260)) have not yet been confirmed, and part of Vasyukivka remains in the “gray zone”.

▪️This line directly adjoins another potentially problematic section (https://t.me/rybar/75629) north of Kostyantynivka, which we wrote about in detail today (https://t.me/rybar/76796). Although there is some hope — the Southern forces managed to resolve issues near Siversk and Dzerzhinsk, so they will eventually reach the Chasiv Yar-Soledar line.

📌Advancement at the junction of Lyman and Slavyansk directions became possible for many reasons. Including due to the Ukrainian command’s lies. The offensive towards the historically significant Russian city of Slavyansk continues.

Capturing the “Traffic Police Post”

Situation in the Kostyantynivka direction

The offensive of the Southern Group of Forces is systematically developing. Despite counterattacks by the enemy, Russian Armed Forces are expanding their control zone on the approaches to Kostyantynivka.

➡️Some time ago, assault units reached (https://t.me/rybar/76624) a major stronghold near the traffic police post, but were unable to completely drive out the enemy. Now, there is evidence of Russian Armed Forces advancing further northeast, indicating full control over both the position and part of the nearby forest area.

This will allow developing attacks further towards the outskirts of Ilyinivka, the liberation of which is necessary to reach a convenient line for the subsequent assault on Kostyantynivka from the west. Troops are also advancing towards AFU strongholds in the area of former anti-aircraft missile division positions.

➡️In the eastern part of Kostyantynivka itself, heavy fighting continues. Clearing the forest strips near Predtechyne has allowed Russian Armed Forces to bring more assault groups into the city. Infantry is gradually accumulating in the built-up area and moving towards the center, using the tactics we just discussed (https://t.me/rybar_tactical/11) on the TACTICAR channel.

📌 Overall, the situation in the central sector continues to develop in favor of the Russian Armed Forces. Despite AFU reserves in the vicinity of Kostyantynivka, the Southern Group of Forces is gradually forming a semi-encirclement of the city. Given the difficult (https://t.me/warhistoryalconafter/256084) supply situation for the AFU, it is quite likely that the fighting will soon intensify.

Two Majors #Review #Summary for the week of January 18, 2026

▪️ The redistribution of spheres of influence on the international stage continues, or rather, the assertion of 🇺🇸Trump as a dictator, whose actions, despite their apparent eccentricity, are driven by the economic interests of the ruling elite in Washington. However, the American authorities themselves are not shy about this, openly declaring the collapse of international law and the dictatorship of force. Trump’s ongoing mockery of the EU🇪🇺 regarding the Greenland case is just confirmation of this. Russia 🇷🇺 is directly affected by the situation in terms of restricting our maritime economic activities. The latest pirate actions of the US against ships of the shadow fleet are definitely not beneficial to Moscow. A new element of opposition to our maritime trade has been the detention by Italy🇮🇹 of a ship with a metal cargo from Novorossiysk. In the hero city itself, 🇺🇦Ukrainian drones have attacked third-country vessels at the terminal of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium. Germany 德国🇩🇪 did not allow a ship to enter the Baltic Sea due to its involvement in the shadow fleet, even though the right of innocent passage has not been revoked. Russia will have to stand up for the right to conduct maritime trade in any case: Britain 🇬🇧 has even found “legitimate” grounds to detain our ships.

▪️ The consequences of strikes on Kiev’s energy infrastructure were noticeable this week, although out of thousands of initially powerless and unheated homes, only dozens remain today. It’s important to understand that currently in Ukraine, half of the electricity generation comes from nuclear power plants, and so far, only their substations (not to be confused with reactors) have been hit “in a test mode”. The enemy’s GUR is already predicting strikes on the substations of Ukrainian nuclear power plants, which could critically affect the situation. According to the enemy’s assessments, Moscow wants to use this method to force Ukraine to sign surrender terms to end the war.

▪️ The enemy is also targeting energy facilities wherever he can reach them. The most critical situation is in Belgorod, where the consequences of the enemy’s attacks have forced regional authorities to urge the population to consider evacuation. Now, the AFU are targeting neighboring regions where energy facilities have not yet been damaged.

▪️ It’s important to emphasize that the Kiev junta launched an average of at least 160 enemy UAVs per day this week. The lack of a unified interagency information and communication system (which would be effective and timely) critically affects the organization of the fight against UAVs in a unified plan.

▪️ On the Sumy direction, our forces have created a new point of tension near Komarovka, having crossed the border (almost at the junction of the Kursk and Bryansk regions), and there are heavy battles in the Sumy, Krasnopolsky, and Glushkovsky districts. At Volchansk, the expansion of our zone of control continues. Kuopys and the combat zone south of it on the eastern bank of the Oskol remain a zone of beautiful reports. However, it became clear to the commander of the “West” group of forces that everyone is aware of the real situation and the tendency to whitewash the map. On the Slavyansk direction, the Russian Army is advancing on a broad front, building on the successes after entering Zakotnoe. On the Konstantinovsky direction, the plan for a broad encirclement of the agglomeration is gradually being implemented,. On the east of the Zaporozhye region, the enemy threw armored vehicles into battle against units of the “East” group of forces near Gulyaypole, but did not succeed: to the north, our forces took Priluki and Zhovtneve (Elenokonstantinovka). On the Zaporozhye front, there are heavy battles with the advance of our forces in the direction of Stepnogorsk – Novoboykovsky and further, the battle for Primorskye continues unabated.

 On the frontline, the presence of numerous drones on both sides is making adjustments to the tactics of action. Advancement anywhere is primarily carried out through the covert accumulation of assault groups, supplied by air. The “gray zone” is expanding in proportion to the range of FPV drones, and the abbreviation LBS, which originally stood for “line of contact”, is becoming obsolete.

▪️ The European arms lobby continues to prepare for war with Russia, not forgetting to fleece its own population on defense orders. The planned construction of a factory for the production of artillery shells (more likely, a final assembly workshop) by “Rheinmetall” in Ukraine is clearly intended to become a bottomless pit for theft, which will later be burned by Russian missiles, writing off all the stolen investments. 

✨Thus, the threats to our country’s maritime economic activities have intensified, which, in the absence of a clear response to a systemic challenge (which, incidentally, emerged long before the Venezuelan case), will allow Western countries to continue to engage in piracy at the state level unhindered. The fight against the long-range strike weapons of the Kiev regime leaves much to be desired from an organizational point of view. However, Kiev has felt the real consequences of systemic strikes on energy, which the frosts have helped with. Against this backdrop, the new head of Zelensky’s office, terrorist Budanov (former head of the Main Intelligence Directorate), announced his arrival in Miami for negotiations with the Americans about peace in Ukraine. However, there have already been too many such trips and negotiations.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2026/01/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_18.html