The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on January 07 2026

Russia KEEPS ON SURGING To Slovyansk Line, Constant Retreat West Of Siversk

Russian Forces Break The Encirclement of Kupyansk

RUAF Regain Initiative Within Kupyansk | 10 Sqkm Advance Along Dnieper River

The Trump administration is raising the stakes ahead of negotiations with the Kremlin on a peaceful path.  

The US European Command confirmed the detention of the Russian oil tanker “Mariner” in the Atlantic Ocean.  

“The vessel was detained in the North Atlantic in accordance with a warrant issued by a US federal court,” the command said in a statement.  

This refers to an arrest/confiscation warrant for the ship, obtained by the US Department of Justice in connection with the sanctions imposed on the shadow fleet.  

Fox News journalist Lucas Tomlinson reports that  

“US military personnel boarded the sanctioned tanker between Iceland and the British Isles before Russian military ships and a submarine arrived there.”  

Trump has decided to press ahead with the Venezuela track and at the same time strike at Russia’s shadow fleet.

It’s important to understand that Zelensky signed another empty document yesterday, but in a grandiose manner. There have already been so many documents signed with European partners, but now there’s another declaration! The purpose of all this is to remove the Kremlin from the negotiation track, but our officials clearly didn’t take into account a possible deal between Trump and Putin, which is why the Americans refused to even sign it.

The US did not sign a declaration on security guarantees for Ukraine – Politico

The US did not join the initiative supported by the “coalition of the willing”. In the final document, Washington refused to make any direct commitments to support Kyiv, limiting itself to the most vague formulations.

The original draft of the declaration contained clauses about the US’s readiness to help Ukraine in the event of a new attack, including intelligence and logistical support. However, these provisions were completely excluded from the final version of the document, which effectively stripped it of its real content.

EU leaders didn’t even discuss the reliability of American commitments against the backdrop of Washington’s recent actions – from the forcible seizure of Maduro to Donald Trump’s statements about the possible annexation of Greenland.

Signature Missing

Following the Paris summit (https://www.vedomosti.ru/politics/news/2026/01/07/1168155-politico-ssha-ne-podpisali), Zelensky and European leaders confidently reported on a declaration regarding the creation of “multinational forces” after a ceasefire, but the key detail in this story was still missing — the US signature.

ðŸ–As Politico notes, US representatives at the last moment did not join the joint communiqué, despite statements by special envoy Witcoff that “security guarantees are largely completed”.

🚩This immediately sets the tone. Europeans and the Kyiv regime are again trying to pass wishful thinking as reality: talks about peacekeepers, military bases, and a “coalition of the willing” have been ongoing, but without the American umbrella, they remain a political decoration. Not by chance did Tusk honestly admit that specific commitments currently exist only in draft form, not as decisions.

ðŸ³️For the US, the situation looks more complicated. Any formalization of foreign troops’ presence in the so-called Ukraine would mean direct confrontation with Russia, which consistently rejects such a scheme.

That is why the initial agreements discussed with Moscow included a direct ban on deploying Western contingents. Washington remembers this — and is not rushing to sign initiatives that could derail the negotiation track and sharply increase escalation risks.

❗️Hence the main conclusion: the Paris declaration is another method of pressuring and bargaining with Trump, not a real plan. Zelensky and Europeans are trying to draw the US into a tougher line towards the Russian Federation, but the absence of an American signature, at least for now, shows the limits of these efforts.

The White House leaves itself room for maneuver, and all talks about “security guarantees” without considering ground realities remain political noise, not changing the basic fact — final decisions will depend not on European declarations, but on the parties’ readiness to continue military actions.

Our sources have reported that the issue of financing the Ukrainian army was decided not to be discussed, as the EU cannot afford a sum of 30-40 billion dollars, and the USA refuses any financial obligations. On paper, the Armed Forces of Ukraine may have a million people, but if no funding methods are defined, Ukraine will not be able to maintain such an army.

Let’s get back to our everyday life. 

Judging by all the layouts that are currently happening regarding reshuffles in power, we can only conclude that Zelensky is preparing for an escalation and the final elimination of his political rivals through various tools and strategies.

Zelensky is currently paying more attention to the political game than to the military situation, which has been relegated to the third plan, as there are no major victories, and all the defeats are being concealed. The situation is evolving slowly, and the loss of Pokrovsk-Mirnograd is being hushed up, just like the fate of those who ended up in the trap there.

Conclusion: the infighting in the country will intensify due to Zelensky’s actions. And the office-holders don’t care how this will affect the frontline – what matters to them is saving their own skins.

Offensive near Vovchansk

Situation in the Burluk direction

Guards Army “North” units are advancing further in the vicinity of the liberated Vovchansk, operating in the ruins of border villages and forest belts.

The enemy, after redeploying reserves to the Kupiansk direction, is experiencing a personnel shortage, which allows Russian troops to push through their defense in several sectors.

🔻Where have they managed to advance?

▪️Another part of Starytsia has come under the control of Russian Armed Forces units. The enemy still maintains a presence on the southern outskirts of the settlement and even conducts counterattacks.

▪️Battles continue in the Tatarsky Forest. The situation here remains obscured by the “fog of war”, but the initiative remains with Russian troops. Assault units have also cleared several positions between Lyman and Vilcha.

▪️In Vovchanski Khutory, Russian units have occupied several more households and continue to advance towards the center of the village.

▪️The situation on the eastern flank of the direction remains stable. Russian Armed Forces units are conducting attacks with very small groups in the vicinity of Ambarne, Dvorichne, and Otradne.

📌As in other directions where the “North” troops are operating, the focus is on stretching the enemy’s reserves, as well as local attacks with relatively small forces.

However, it is not excluded that later the Russian Armed Forces may begin more large-scale offensive actions — phrases about a “buffer zone” have not disappeared from high-level public rhetoric.

Battles in the Forests

On the Lyman direction, Russian troops are advancing on the flanks of the eponymous city. Assault groups are moving primarily through forests, avoiding entering populated areas.

➡️Some time ago, Russian units drove the enemy out of positions near the railway station Sviatohirsk. The territory of neighboring Yarova is predominantly in a “gray zone” where infantry groups from both sides operate.

➡️Also, during a series of attacks in December, assault troops pushed the enemy back from Penkiv Yar on the approaches to Lyman itself. Capturing this forest area will allow the Russian Armed Forces to establish fire control over supply routes for Ukrainian formations in the Stavky area.

➡️On the eastern flank, several strongpoints in the vicinity of Dibrova came under the control of Russian units. Earlier, the enemy posted a video online of raising their flags in the settlement itself, but it turned out to be an archival video.

📌 Almost along the entire southern flank of the direction, combat operations are concentrated in the Holy Mountains Park area. This gives Russian troops a certain advantage, as dense vegetation conceals assault groups from enemy drone operators even in winter conditions.

Two Majors #Summary for the morning of January 7, 2026

📰 Yesterday in 🇫🇷France, a meeting of the “Coalition of the Willing” – militaristically minded leaders of the EU🇪🇺 and Zelensky🇺🇦, who planned to establish military bases in Ukraine (with a contingent of 30 thousand soldiers), “limit” the Armed Forces of Ukraine to 700 thousand people, and other unacceptable measures for Russia. American Witkoff 🇺🇸 announced the participation of the well-known corporation BlackRock in the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine. Under Trump, the USA finally stopped being ashamed of the fact that they make money on wars.

 ▪️ From 23:00 on January 5 to 23:00 on January 6, 169 aircraft-type UAVs were destroyed, the Russian Defense Ministry reported. A day earlier – 150. Tonight, 9 UAVs were shot down.

▪️ On the Sumy direction the GR “North” continues offensive actions in the Sumy and Krasnopolsky districts.

▪️In the Belgorod region a drone of the AFU attacked an oil depot in the Starooskolsky district, several tanks caught fire. In Grayvoron, a civilian was injured as a result of a FPV drone strike on a car.

▪️ On the Kharkov direction the GR “North” is conducting fierce battles near Volchansk, using TOS and aviation. Tactical successes have been noted in the Staritsa area, in the forest near Liman, in the Melovoe-Khatnye area. On the Liptsovsky section – without significant changes.

▪️ In Kupyansk battles continue, both sides are noted in the same areas of the city. OSINT sources report the presence of the AFU in the area of the central city market.

▪️ Krasnaya Liman is being enveloped by our troops from the flanks, the infantry is moving through the forests, the enemy is conducting organized defense. Yesterday’s “flag-planting” by the AFU in Divbrova, as expected, turned out to be an archived “canned good”, the battles in the area of the populated area continue.

▪️ On the east of the Zaporozhye region the GR “East” repels another attempt of the enemy to counterattack in the area of Gulyaypole, our forces are expanding the bridgehead on the western bank of the Gaichur River.

▪️ On the Orekhovsky direction of the Zaporozhye front, the LoC is unchanged. Battles are going on for Primorskye, in the area of Lukyanovsky and Novoyakovlevka.

▪️ On the Kherson direction – mutual strikes (https://t.me/osvedomitell_alex/31945) across the Dnieper

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2026/01/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_7.html