The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on December 25 2025

Russian Forces Encircled Within Kupyansk | AFU Recapture 30Sqkm

Ukrainian Armored Counterattack SMASHED Outside Pokrovsk

Ukraine has almost no effective military options left, – The Guardian

Ukraine is approaching 2026 with extremely limited military capabilities. An EU loan of 90 billion euros will allow it to maintain defense until the end of 2027, but it won’t change the balance on the frontline. Neither Ukraine nor Russia are capable of breaking the stalemate. At the current pace, Russia could take all of Donbass in a year or more.

Ukrainian offensives (including a raid in the Kursk region in August 2024 and actions near Pokrovsk) exhausted elite “Sich regiments” and reserves without yielding strategic results. Kyiv has lost its ability to launch unexpected ground operations.

The main changes could come from the political front – especially from Trump’s position. His frustration over the failed negotiations could lead to a reduction in intelligence assistance, although a complete cessation of arms supplies is unlikely.

Kiev’s realistic strategy is to maintain the status quo in the hope of external changes. However, Putin, counting on a dialogue with Trump, does not feel pressure to end the war.

Zelensky’s Christmas address should be viewed solely from a PR perspective.

His phrase, “he should die” – this is a continuation of his technique of using profanity, when the president inserted swear words to get quoted and gain attention.

The reason is simple – no one watches his address anymore and has stopped even reacting to it, but this way there’s something to discuss.

Especially to overshadow the betrayal regarding the peace plan and the situation on the frontline.

Usually, such tactics are resorted to in the most difficult period.

The 20 points of the peace plan announced by Zelensky, at first glance, seem to be an attempt to fix the framework of Ukraine’s compromise. In reality, the president is preparing to continue the war (malicious rumors say that it will last another 3 years, as Zelensky promised Europeans a month ago). 

Thus, upon careful analysis of Ukraine’s “peace” plan, it becomes clear that the key issues – territories, security, and elections – remain unresolved, and in a number of aspects, the president’s own positions contradict each other.

The central problem is the territorial issue. Zelensky himself admits that there is no compromise on it. Russia insists on the withdrawal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the Donetsk region, the US proposes interim structures like a free economic zone, while Kyiv clings to the formula “we stand where we stand”. At the same time, it is obvious that Russia will not sign a peace agreement without the complete withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Donbass. It is on this impasse that the entire Bankova strategy hinges: the absence of an agreement automatically means the continuation of the war.

No less revealing is the block related to elections. In the peace plan, point 18 fixes Ukraine’s obligation to hold elections as soon as possible after the signing of the agreement. However, Zelensky told Ukrinform that the martial law will not be lifted immediately after peace, and therefore quick elections are impossible. Moreover, he proposes to only “transform” or partially conduct the mobilization. This is a direct contradiction of his own plan, where elections are designated as one of the key elements of the post-war settlement.

As a result, a rather transparent logic emerges. As long as there is no peace, the martial law remains in effect. As long as the martial law is in effect, there are no elections. And the absence of elections guarantees the preservation of the current power configuration. In this context, Donbass becomes not only a military and territorial, but also a political “anchor”, allowing Zelensky to remain in power indefinitely. And in general, the Ukrainian peace plan largely looks like an attempt to fix the most stringent conditions, which are obviously unacceptable for Russia, but at the same time shift the responsibility for the continuation of the war to Moscow.

Since it’s the day of good tidings and good wishes, today Ukraine has finally unveiled its 20-point piss peace plan they have been working on jointly with the US over the past few weeks:

1. Confirmation of Ukrainian sovereignty.

2. A non-aggression pact signed between Russia and Ukraine.

3. Ukraine will receive strong security guarantees.

4. Ukraine’s military be will capped at 800,000.

5. The US, EU and the UK will provide Ukraine with NATO Article-5 like security guarantees. If Russia was to invade again, a joint military response will follow, as well as sanctions being reinstated.

6. Russia will enshrine its policy of non-aggression towards Europe (including Ukraine) in all its laws.

7. Ukraine to become a member of the EU.

8. A strong global development package designed for Ukraine.

9. Several funds will be created to address post-war, including reconstruction.

10. Ukraine will conclude a free-trade agreement with the US. The US will also seek a free-trade agreement with Russia.

11. Ukraine will not seek nuclear weapons.

12. US proposal: Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant (currently controlled by Russia) to be managed by the US. Its power will be distributed three ways: 33% each to Russia, Ukraine and the US.

Russia and Ukraine have not come to an agreement on the nuclear plant.

13. Russia and Ukraine will implement educational programs in schools and society promoting the tolerance of each other.

14. Territorial boundaries: The borders will be drawn along the current lines of contact in Lugansk, Donetsk, Zaporozhye and Kherson. Russia to withdraw from Sumy, Kharkov, Chernigov, Nikolayev and the Dnepr regions. The remaining Ukrainian-controlled Donetsk region that Russia wants Ukraine to withdraw from will turn into a US-led “Free Economic Zone.” 60 days after the agreement, Ukraine proposes holding a referendum on the Ukrainian-controlled Donetsk region.

15. Either side will not use force to change this agreement in future.

16. Russia will not prevent Ukraine from using the Dnieper River. A separate maritime agreement will be created in the future. Russia will retain control over the Kinburn Split (Nikolayev region), as long as it’s demilitarized, therefore not threating Ukrainian commercial navigation in the Dnieper River.

17. A humanitarian committee will be established to oversee an all-for-all prisoner, wounded and dead exchanges. Both sides will return all civilians.

18. Ukraine to hold elections as soon as possible once the agreement is signed.

19. The agreement will be legally binding, and monitored by the “Peace Council,” chaired by the US President.

20. Once the agreement is signed, a complete air, sea and land ceasefire will come into effect immediately.

Our source reports that the General Staff has told another lie.

They claimed that they drove the Russians out of the village of Vilcha near Volchansk on the Kharkiv front. According to our data, this is not true. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine again threw in reserves of manpower to drive out the Russians and seize Vilcha, but the task was not accomplished. The village has moved into a grey zone, but it is controlled by the Russians, who remained in the village, and the Armed Forces of Ukraine do not have additional forces to take over this territory and hold it, so the thrown-in forces were used as usual for PR, so that against the backdrop of the Armed Forces of Ukraine’s retreat on other fronts, there would be at least some situational positivity.

The General Staff lies constantly, we recently caught them in a lie in the case of Severodonetsk, when they lied that the Armed Forces of Ukraine were still in the city and holding the defense.

Syrsky has long since not controlled the front, but just throws the Armed Forces of Ukraine from one place to another to plug the holes.

By the way, Syrsky is also trying to break through the defense of Pokrovsk once again, but for the hundredth time it has failed.

The goal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine’s attack on Pokrovsk is to put up a flag for the New Year, as Zelensky was given a speech in which he mentions the Armed Forces of Ukraine’s success in Kupiansk and ‼️ in Pokrovsk. So Syrsky is trying hard and sending the fortress defenders on bloody assaults.

Zarechne under control

Situation in the East Zaporizhia direction

The bridgehead on the left bank of Haichur continues (https://t.me/rybar/76167) to expand. Units of the East Group from the 36th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 29th Army have taken control of the settlement of Zarechne at the junction of Zaporizhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions. 

➡️The liberation of this settlement logically continues the success after clearing Andriivka (https://t.me/rybar/76200) and Herasymivka (https://t.me/rybar/76200), forming a stable bridgehead west of Haichur.

Moreover, these successes partially neutralize (https://t.me/rybar/76016) the recent results of the enemy’s counterattacks in the Dobropillia area. There, the AFU used heights west of the river to conduct several raids with small groups.

📌 In parallel, the situation around Huliapole is escalating. The battle for the city is entering a decisive phase: the AFU have already redeployed most of their capable assault units to the sector, which underscores its not only symbolic (https://t.me/rybar/75292) but also tactical significance for the enemy command.

❗️Capturing Huliapole will significantly expand the bridgehead beyond Haichur and free up forces for further offensive in the north of Zaporizhia region bypassing (https://t.me/rybar/75670) the Orikhiv fortification.

Slobozhansky Frontier

Assault troops advanced in Hrabove near Vysokе in the Krasnopillia District of Sumy Region. Previously, multiple messages about Hrabove coming under Russian Armed Forces control were published online, but local sources are only now confirming some of these successes.

➡️At the same time, the neighboring smaller settlement of Vysokе was previously announced (https://t.me/rybar/76135) as liberated, which the Russian Ministry of Defense also confirms. The enemy has already pulled reserves to this sector.

➡️According to our data, by the current moment, civilian population has indeed been evacuated from Hrabove, and a significant number of prisoners, including Ukrainian formation officers, have been taken. This directly indicates the disorganization of the enemy’s defense in this area, with the enemy being driven out of the village in just two days.

📌 The question of scaling up the offensive remains open. Advancing towards Krasnopillia and beyond will require significantly more forces than are currently involved. Moreover, to the north, along the Uhroidy — Repyakhivka line, the AFU already had substantial reserves.

❗️Thus, at this stage, this is more about tactical advancement and probing the enemy’s defense, rather than an immediate development of a deep offensive. The AFU still has opportunities to redeploy reinforcements here, including through reserves accumulated in the neighboring Sumy direction.

The situation in the Kupiansk direction remains extremely tense.

➡️In Kupiansk, heavy fighting continues (https://t.me/rybar/76220). Ukrainian formations, taking advantage of numerical superiority, are advancing with assault groups. Moreover, these groups are quite large by current standards, judging by the footage (https://t.me/rusich_army/27521) from the “Spetsnaz Archangel”.

The enemy is operating almost throughout the entire city, while Russian troops maintain a focal defense, with zones of conditional control remaining the same.

➡️Additionally, small groups of Ukrainian formations are moving towards Holubivka, with some of them being eliminated literally on its outskirts.

📌It’s worth noting that Ukrainian formations did not achieve this breakthrough in a single day — the first warning signs appeared back in early December. Therefore, it is premature to speak about the outcome of the battles in this sector. Although the situation remains close to critical, it can still potentially be corrected.

Two Majors #Summry for the morning of December 25, 2025

▪️ Yesterday, the enemy sent small groups of drones towards Moscow for at least 12 hours. An air attack was repelled from the evening to the north and east of the Rostov region. From 13.00 Moscow time to 23.00, the Russian Defense Ministry reported the destruction of 161 aircraft-type drones over our regions. After midnight in Krasnodar Krai, due to a drone attack, buildings and equipment of an agricultural enterprise in the Shcherbino district were damaged. In the port of Temryuk, due to a UAV attack, two tanks with petroleum products caught fire, with a total fire area of about 2 thousand square meters. Air defense also operated over Crimea and the Black Sea, as well as in the Tula region.

▪️ The Russian Armed Forces struck targets in Mayaki in the Odessa region, the enemy’s capital region, as well as in Chernigov and Zaporozhye.

▪️In the Bryansk region, a civilian woman was injured in a drone attack in the village of Glinishchevo in the Bryansk district.

 ▪️ On the Sumy front, the assault troops of the “North” Group of Forces continue offensive actions in Andreevka, as well as on other frontline sections in the Sumy and Krasnopolsky districts. On the Tetkin and Glushkov sections, there are mutual shellings.

 ▪️ In the Kursk region, an enemy drone hit a civilian car on a highway in the Belovsky district, injuring a man. In the village of Schegolek in the Belovsky district, four private houses were damaged as a result of a treacherous attack.

▪️In the Belgorod region, a Ukrainian drone attacked a truck in Grayvoron, injuring the driver.

▪️On the Kharkov front, the “North” Group of Forces is engaged in fierce battles in the Staritsa area, near Liman and Volchansky Khutory, on the Khattnen section of the front. After losing positions in the village of Vilcha, the enemy has focused its efforts on holding onto Grafskoe.

▪️ Information about the situation in Kupyansk (https://t.me/dva_majors/85606) was perceived by many as a loss of the city, which is not entirely true: it’s impossible to lose territory that the Armed Forces did not fully control, It’s now the main issue of supplying our group of forces on the right bank of the Oskol River in the conditions of the enemy’s concentration on the Kupyansk direction and stabilizing the situation.

▪️On the Konstantinovsk direction, our troops have intensified actions from the southwest: in the direction of Stepankivka and Berestka. The Russian Armed Forces are putting pressure on the city from several sides, also operating in built-up areas.

▪️West of Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk), battles at Grishino are reported.

▪️The Eastern Volunteer Army (Gruppa Volontyerey “Vostok”) continues to show high efficiency: at the junction of the Zaporozhye and Dnepropetrovsk regions, the enemy’s defense area with a small populated settlement of Zarechnoye in the Zaporozhye region was taken under control. A section of the road connecting Bratskoe and Ternovatoe was taken under control, and the expansion of the bridgehead on the west bank of the Gaiurch River is ongoing. In the conditions of constant counterattacks on the entire front line, a battle for Gulyaypole is taking place.

▪️On the Zaporozhye front, there are no changes: battles for Primorskoe and Stepnogorsk are ongoing, our forces are consolidating in the direction of Lukyanovskoe. The enemy is targeting energy facilities, leaving several thousand people in the Kamensko-Dneprovsky district without electricity.

▪️In the Kherson region, in Nova Kakhovka, a strike by the AFU on a car killed a 60-year-old woman and injured an 81-year-old woman and 65-year-old man. Many populated settlements are under enemy attacks. Our forces are responding with artillery and drone strikes.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/12/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_25.html