The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on November 6 2025

Russia CLOSING IN On Final Escape Routes Out Of Myrnohrad & Pokrovsk

RUAF Clearing Final Greyzones Within Pokrovsk & Rodynske | AFU Clear Supply Routes Into Shakhove

TERRIFYING moment in KUPYANSK: Russia surrounded US Army Officers and an Elite NATO Assault Team

Our sources in the OP reported that Syrsky today informed Zelensky about the situation in the Pokrovsk pocket, the Armed Forces of Ukraine began an independent withdrawal from Myrnohrad, but the enemy controls all roads/fields. The Commander-in-Chief also reported that Pokrovsk is 95% lost and there is no point in holding the city anymore, but the President demanded to continue fighting to prevent the Kremlin from strengthening its negotiating positions.

Our sources in the OP reported that Syrsky today informed Zelensky about a possible encirclement of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Myrnohrad by the end of the week. The Commander-in-Chief assured the President that the General Staff continues the counteroffensive to unblock the brigades in Myrnohrad, but so far the enemy holds the perimeter. 

Our source reported that Syrsky proposed a strategy to unblock Mirnograd through Rodninske, for which special military forces from across the country were brought to Dobropillia. The first two counteroffensive attempts failed, which is why the decision was made to attack with a broader front. The losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are colossal, but there is a political objective: to allow the encirclement, which means reserves will continue to be transferred to the flank of the Pokrovska pocket.

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A month ago, political Telegram channels were writing about the situation in Pokrovsk, but the General Staff was simply hiding the scale of the disaster, and now it is throwing all reserves to unblock Myrnohrad.

The fact that we will lose Pokrovsk is a fact that follows from the ratio of forces and means, — officer of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Mykola Melnyk

“The Pokrovsko-Myrnohradska agglomeration is in a semi-encirclement with logistics practically cut off. The Armed Forces of Ukraine control less than 50% of Pokrovsk. The problem is not in the fact of the loss itself, but in ensuring that not everyone defending it dies,” notes Melnyk.

The Washington Post: Ukraine must choose between holding territory and saving the lives of its soldiers in the battles for Pokrovsk.

Pokrovsk was a stronghold of resistance, and its capture by Russia would be a propaganda victory, but experts believe it is now time to retreat and save lives for future battles.

Ukraine has been resisting Russia’s advance on Pokrovsk for almost two years and more than ever refuses to cede territory to Moscow, as Vladimir Putin calls on the White House to pressure Kyiv to agree to a deal ceding the entire Donetsk region.

Leaving Pokrovsk—even to strengthen more advantageous positions nearby—could boost Russian morale. Moscow could also use it to convince the unpredictable White House that Kyiv is unable to prevent Russia from achieving its maximalist goals. But staying in the city amid unfolding street fighting carries serious risks of heavy losses of Ukrainian troops and equipment. This poses a danger to a country whose army is already facing a serious personnel shortage.

Putin may use the loss of Pokrovsk to “convince” President Donald Trump of the “inevitability of victory and the futility of aid to Ukraine,” said Nikolai Beleskov, a research fellow at the National Institute for Strategic Studies. Kyiv faces a “very difficult dilemma,” he added. As the military situation in Pokrovsk worsens, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and senior officials must “consider preserving the troops.” However, “from a political point of view, it is difficult to leave sovereign territories knowing that this could become diplomatic support for Russia.”

Russian control over Pokrovsk could also open the way for Russia to advance toward the Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia regions to the west and southwest, which are less well defended. The dilemma is complicated by the painful history of other cities captured by Russia—Bakhmut in 2023 and Avdiivka in 2024—where Ukraine fortified but then suffered huge losses. Ukrainian military have been criticized domestically and abroad for not retreating earlier to save the lives of their soldiers.

If Pokrovsk falls, it will become the largest city captured by Russia since Bakhmut. Russia wants to “occupy as much territory as possible in eastern and southern Ukraine” to increase pressure to lift economic sanctions and exert “political pressure on negotiations,” said Sonata strategic expert Andriy Ryzhenko. “That is why they are so active in the Pokrovsk area,” he added.

However, military analysts believe decisions must be made quickly, as the window of opportunity to withdraw Ukrainian troops from Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad may close rapidly.

“After a year of fighting on the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad axis, the loss of these cities now will have limited impact on the overall operational picture. Ukraine’s withdrawal from this area does not mean Russia will automatically gain an advantage it can immediately exploit,” he wrote on X, noting that Ukraine’s limited human resources are more important than holding territory at any cost.

“At this stage, Ukrainian troops should retreat rather than try to hold on in a collapsing cauldron,” said Michael Kofman, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment, who specializes in the Ukrainian conflict and recently visited troops near Pokrovsk.

The situation looks “increasingly dangerous,” he said, and “no one knows for sure how many troops actually remain.” Regardless of their number, “at this stage of the war, it is extremely difficult to withdraw troops under fire from enemy drones.”

“It is unclear how long Ukrainian defenders can hold out… This bridgehead could collapse soon if Ukraine fails to stabilize the front line and clear the city of Russian troops,” said military analyst Franz-Stefan Gady from Vienna.

Kiev has decided to hold Pokrovsk and Mirnograd to the last, otherwise the Russian Armed Forces will gain operational freedom in the Dnepropetrovsk region, — “Flash”

▪️”A military-political decision has been made to hold the Pokrovsk-Mirnograd conglomerate for as long as possible. All possible reserves will be involved for this,” said the Ukrainian Armed Forces radio technology specialist Sergey “Flash”.

▪️”From a military standpoint, holding these positions is important because they open up an almost flat territory deep into the Dnepropetrovsk region. If the Russians take Pokrovsk, UAVs will be able to operate far from its heights.

▪️But no position is worth the lives of people, and I hope that if there is a need to save people, it will be done in time,” added Sergey Beskrestnov.

▪️Earlier, the Ukrainian military told Western media that they were essentially surrounded near Pokrovsk.

With roughly 70% of Pokrovsk (officially “Krasnoarmeysk”, as the Kiev government had no mandate to change a city’s name in the Donetsk People’s Republic, but everyone knows it as Pokrovsk) now under Russian control and the frontline wrapped around the urban area, the question “why Pokrovsk matters” arises again. We all know the “The city is no longer strategically significant” meme.

Pokrovsk sits in western Donbass on the M30/E50 corridor. Although the Donbass is often reduced to Donetsk and Lugansk oblasts, the Donets Coal Basin runs westward toward Pavlograd in Dnepropetrovsk oblast. The M30 links Donetsk–Pokrovsk–Pavlograd–Dnepropetrovsk and has also been the main Kiev–Donetsk route. Together with the secondary M03 from Kharkov, this corridor fed the entire AFU grouping across the Donbass.

When Pokrovsk lay well behind the line it served as an excellent operational rear for Ukrainian forces around Donetsk, Gorlovka and Artemovsk/Bakhmut, tied directly by road and rail to Pavlograd (the strategic rear, and site of repeated Russian strikes on rail infrastructure since 2023; ongoing). The role of Pokrovsk shifted from operational rear, to tactical rear, to contested battlespace. In the coming months, the city is going to turn into Russia’s tactical rear, and then Russia’s operational rear.

West of Pokrovsk lies a long stretch of open steppe before Pavlograd to the northwest and Zaporozhye further south-west. The city’s capture opens operational depth for the “Center” army group, enabling either continuation along the M30 toward Pavlograd or lateral maneuvers north/south across western Donbass, with shorter interior lines from Donetsk.

Crucially, Pokrovsk is a major rail node, one of the two arteries that historically supplied the Slavyansk–Kramatorsk agglomeration. Once secured, cleared, and repaired, control of the Pokrovsk junction unlocks the entire Donbass railway web for Russia.

After full capture, Pokrovsk becomes a natural logistics hub for Russia: a forward distribution point on the M30/E50, a marshalling and repair base on the Donbass rail grid, and a staging area that shortens supply lines for further advances. Its industry can likewise be repurposed for fuel storage, ammunition handling, vehicle repair, and medical evacuation nodes.

In short, what was once the AFU’s key rear area in the Donbass will now become a primary gateway and supply switchyard for Russian operations west of Donetsk and into the open country beyond.

Most Ukrainian sources expect that Pokrovsk will be fully taken by the Russian army within the next 48-72 hours. Meanwhile, stabilization measures are underway in the city, and the northern and northwestern outskirts are being cleared. Most of the remaining Ukrainian Armed Forces units seem to have retreated to Hrishino. From there, if some incoming information from the Ukrainian side is to be believed, there will be a renewed attempt to push into the city in order to oust the Russian Federation and at least temporarily delay the city’s capture.

The enemy continues the “counteroffensive” near Kupyansk

▪️Following Zelensky’s orders, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been making a series of attempts for two days to break through to Kupyansk and the Oskol River to unblock their encircled units.

▪️Enemy infantry and equipment keep advancing nonstop from the south and west. The amount of equipment is decreasing. Fighters of the 68th division and the 27th brigade of the “West” troop group repel wave after wave.

▪️In the Kupyansk area, units of the 6th Army continue to destroy the encircled enemy group, the Ministry of Defense reported this afternoon.

▪️During the day, 4 counterattacks by units of the 92nd assault and 151st mechanized brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the 1st National Guard brigade were repelled in the areas of Monachynivka, Blahodativka, and Petrovka in Kharkov region.

▪️In the Kupyansk area, up to 50 Ukrainian militants, 26 units of weapons and military equipment, including American M113 APCs and 155-mm Paladin self-propelled howitzers, 7 armored vehicles, 2 mortars, a truck, and 8 pickups were destroyed in one day.

Two Majors #Summary as of the morning of November 6, 2025

▪️Night strikes by the enemy also hit Volgograd: a drone crashed into a 24-story residential building, damaging balconies and breaking windows. A civilian was killed. In several districts of Volgograd, damage to glazing in residential buildings and vehicles is being recorded. A fire broke out in the industrial zone in the Krasnoarmeysky district, apparently hitting the oil refinery. Restrictions were imposed at several airports. In the Rostov region, UAVs were destroyed in the Aksaysky, Myasnikovsky, Millerovsky, Chertkovsky, and Sholokhovsky districts. Footage is circulating of a strike on the Kostroma State District Power Plant (the third most powerful thermal power plant in Russia, located in Volgorechensk).

▪️Russian Armed Forces struck targets in Sumy, Chernigov, and Dnepropetrovsk regions. The strikes were of a “routine” nature.

▪️In the Bryansk region, kamikaze drones attacked the village of Krapivna in Klimovsky district and the Miratorg agricultural enterprise yesterday. The driver of a feed truck was injured.

▪️In the Kursk region, the AFU shelled Rylsk. Fences, facades, glazing of five private houses, and a gas pipeline and power lines were damaged.

▪️On the Sumy direction, intense fighting continues. The enemy is strengthening defensive positions and redeploying engineering units. The Northern Group of Forces disrupted three attempts by the AFU to advance in the areas of Andreevka, Kondratovka, and Varachino with comprehensive fire strikes. Our OTRK struck the AFU near Katerynivka on the Tetkinsky and Glushkovsky sectors.

▪️In the Belgorod region, the AFU struck a vehicle with a drone in the settlement of Oktyabrsky killing the driver. In the Masyshevo of the Grayvoron district, a man suffered barotrauma as a result of a drone attack on a moving vehicle. Grayvoron, Murom, Borisovka, Shebekino, Sankovo, and Rakitnoye came under fire.

▪️On the Kharkov direction, the Northern Group of Forces is pushing the enemy out of the left bank of Volchansk (https://t.me/pionergrupa/9087). Our units are advancing near Synelnykove and on the Melove-Khatne front sector, where a wide range of weapons is actively used. The Russian Aerospace Forces, “Geran-2″, and TOC-1A are working on AFU positions in the areas of Hryhorivka, Podsredne, and Dvurechansky.

▪️Regarding the assault on Kupyansk, the Russian MoD issued an official statement refuting Kiev’s publications about the alleged small size of our grouping in the city. It should be noted that logistics are indeed difficult, but overall the situation of the AFU in the city continues to deteriorate.

▪️On the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) direction, even the Western press, unlike the Kiev leadership, publicly acknowledges the dire situation of the AFU in Pokrovsk and Mirnograd. The enemy constantly counterattacks; intense fighting is ongoing. Enemy channels claim that “a military-political decision has been made [by Kiev] to hold the Pokrovsk-Mirnograd conglomerate as long as possible. All possible reserves will be used for this.” They explain this by the fact that west of Pokrovsk is flat terrain without heights, which creates a threat of Russian Armed Forces gaining operational space, and this, given the release of our significant forces after the assault on Pokrovsk, threatens the enemy with a cascading collapse of defense in a specific sector.

▪️On the Zaporozhye front, there are no significant changes on the Orekhov and Stepnohirsk front sectors; heavy fighting continues. The enemy counterattacks, including using GUR special forces on the front line.

▪️In the Kherson region, mutual strikes across the Dnieper River. On our side, there was an emergency shutdown of a high-voltage power line; 10 municipal districts (more than 300 settlements and 200,000 people) are left without electricity, the governor reported.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/11/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_6.html