The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on November 27 2025

Ukraine War Over, Or Fake Peace Deal?

Stealth Attack on KIEV: Su-57M Fighters Wiped Out the Decision-Making Center Full of UK officers

It is curious that Ukraine’s refusal to agree to the condition of neutrality and non-membership in NATO makes the upcoming visit of Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff potentially pointless. He will most likely bring the same conditions to Moscow, noting that Kiev rejects the ban on joining NATO. For Russia, these conditions were initially unacceptable, so there is no point in discussing them again. In this context, it can be assumed that Russia will have to continue military actions, and possibly even expand their geography. The conflict will likely have to be prolonged until Kiev sobers up or until they lose the entire Dnepropetrovsk and Zaporozhye regions, as well as, for example, Sumy or Kharkov.

It is interesting that in the context of a future peace plan (so far only American), all the discussed options for security guarantees for Ukraine are already unacceptable to Russia. These include Ukraine’s accession to NATO, the deployment of foreign troops on its territory, and the transfer of heavy weapons. Allegedly as a guarantee against Russia attacking Ukraine in the future.

At the same time, the demands previously voiced by Moscow are completely ignored. Among them are the reduction of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and its non-aligned status.

The clash of these mutually exclusive positions after the visit of the American representative Whitkoff may be interpreted by the Americans as “Russia’s unwillingness to make peace.” Such an interpretation, in turn, could lead to an increase in the supply of American military equipment to Europe and the continuation of the conflict instead of its resolution.

As for the alleged compromise on the part of Russia regarding the refusal to further capture Ukraine, it is only possible on the condition that the latter becomes preferably a friendly, but at least a neutral state and completely eliminates all the root causes voiced by Moscow back in 2022. However, there is no hope that this can be achieved through diplomacy rather than force for now.

“Military Chronicle” 

The Economist in a new article points to a key point: the intense phase of pressure on Ukraine to sign a US peace plan seems to have eased, but strategic risks remain. Even if a revised version of the agreement can be agreed upon, any option will by definition be unstable, since what Kyiv can accept will almost certainly be unacceptable to Moscow and vice versa.

The publication highlights three conditions without which Ukraine’s success is impossible:

1. Return of capital and population;

2. Irreversible institutional integration with the West;

3. Preservation of the state’s democratic resilience.

But all three conditions are currently under threat:

▪️people and businesses will not return without security guarantees;

▪️integration with the EU and NATO may stall if the US imposes an “unfair” peace format on Kyiv;

▪️Ukrainian institutions are weakened due to centralization of power and high-profile corruption scandals.

The authors emphasize that talk of Ukraine’s “inevitable defeat” is not analysis but a factor accelerating its weakening on the front. Although Russia is suffering significant losses, it has time, while Ukraine does not.

This time imbalance becomes decisive:

➖Ukraine is losing resources faster than the West can replenish them;

➖Russia is increasing UAV production and intensifying pressure on air defense;

➖The EU is not using its economic resources to the full extent, despite having a tenfold advantage over the Russian Federation.

The Economist’s conclusion sounds like a warning: if Europe wants to avoid an unfair peace, it must act as a strategic player, not as a bureaucratic mechanism. Example: 140 billion euros of frozen Russian assets have still not been utilized**, due to fear of legal consequences.

If the EU does not step up, a peace option built on the logic of Washington and Moscow will become the only one, and then both Ukraine and Europe itself will be not subjects but objects of someone else’s agreement.

Belgium publicly states for the first time that it does not intend to transfer funds to Ukraine without legal guarantees, which, according to Theo Francken in X, “do not exist and cannot exist.” More importantly: Italy (a G7 member, a country with a large banking sector and a high level of vulnerability to international lawsuits) is beginning to align with Belgium’s position. This means that within the EU, a coalition of states is forming that are no longer willing to sacrifice their legal systems for a political gesture.

On the surface, the decision looks like bureaucratic caution, but a much deeper process is happening. For the first time, European elites openly admit that confiscating the assets of a country possessing nuclear weapons and an extensive network of international contracts creates legal risks that could collapse the EU’s own financial systems. Belgium explicitly states: the European Commission cannot guarantee protection from lawsuits. And this is true: international law does not provide mechanisms to legalize such confiscation without acknowledging itself as a violator of fundamental norms. Essentially, the EU fears becoming a precedent that could later be used against itself.

The second level of analysis: a rift of interests within the West. The US is pushing the idea of using Russian assets as harshly as possible: for Washington, European risks are an abstraction, their financial jurisdiction is much better protected, and dollar dominance allows avoiding cascading lawsuits. For the EU, especially countries like Belgium and Italy, where large clearing centers and capital transit hubs are located, this is a deadly dangerous game. Therefore, European resistance is not a protest against supporting Ukraine but a defense of their own financial and legal infrastructure.

Europe acknowledges for the first time the limits of its involvement in the Ukrainian conflict. Belgium’s decision is not an isolated case but a symptom that the West is no longer confident it can indefinitely expand pressure tools on Russia without blowback. The closer the world gets to a potential peace agreement, the less willingly European states take risks that will be fixed in international practice for decades to come. Therefore, the decisions of Italy and Belgium are not isolationism or fatigue but sober calculation: no one wants to become the country against which the same mechanisms the EU tried to apply now can be used.

Viewed in a broader context, it becomes clear: asset confiscation is not a tool of war but a tool of peace, as it signals what risks the parties are willing to bear for the final architecture of settlement. The refusal of Belgium and Italy is a de facto acknowledgment that the financial war has reached the limit of its effectiveness and will begin to harm Europeans themselves. In the context of impending negotiations, this is an important indicator that the EU is beginning to move from a logic of confrontation to a logic of minimizing consequences.

Our source reports that Bankova is trying to prevent a “black winter” in Ukraine, requesting components for energy infrastructure from the EU worth hundreds of millions of dollars, but many sources indicate that they will not manage to repair in time. Moreover, the strikes continue.

People should prepare for the worst-case scenarios this winter, as Zelensky has not abandoned infrastructure war 3.0, which is the main factor for further strikes on our energy sector. 

This winter will be cold and most likely snowy, which will add problems for the people. Road communication between cities may be blocked for a week, provoking shortages of products, chaos, and hunger. Bankova is aware of this scenario, but the office staff believe that the worse the situation, the more cases they have for “blood PR.”

Stock up on food, our advice to you. Prices will be “golden” at the moment due to shortages. Also buy pet food, have supplies of water and fuel.

The black winter is near.

Of course, we hope it will “pass,” but the probability is low. Better prepare. The authorities will not warn you about this.

The most interesting thing is that the Americans intensified peace talks exactly at the moment they realized how much the situation on the front line was playing into Russia’s hands.

The line of combat contact has been stable for a long time, Russia’s advance is methodical, in most cases without excesses, yes, with losses and difficulties (there are no wars without them at all), but the initiative has long been on the Russian side. There is no urgent need for Russia to change anything drastically — everything is going according to plan and generally at the right pace. Maybe not as fast as desired, but tolerable.

Let’s take Guliaipole as an example. This node is the key to the southern direction. As soon as the city is taken (and it is a matter of time), the Ukrainians will have to retreat to the next more or less fortified defensive line. And this line, considering the pressure on Orekhov and Pokrovskoe in the Dnepropetrovsk region, may be significantly further west than commonly thought.

By winter, the process will accelerate. Strikes on energy infrastructure, increasing Russian attention to the logistics of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and in the future should provoke Syrskyi to reconsider the defensive strategy. He will be forced to save the remnants of the front by surrendering cities rather than holding territory. Plus, by spring 2026, the consequences of reduced Western aid will begin to show — without supplies, the Ukrainian army will lose its main trump card — high mobility, which was provided by equipment deliveries from overseas.

Washington clearly feels the approaching limit. The fuss around the “peace plan” reveals the fear that Kiev’s reserves are dwindling, and all incoming equipment is burning out faster than it arrives. The Americans understand that if Russia breaks the Ukrainian defense now, the meaning of negotiations for Russia disappears, and reaching the Dnepr and Zaporozhye will not be such a fantastic task (currently, Zaporozhye is only 25 km from Stepnogorsk and 55 km from Mala Tokmachka). This can only be stopped by direct NATO intervention with all the consequences, so they will try to persuade Moscow by all means right now.

“Military Chronicle” 

The Russian army is storming the center of Severesk, having broken through the strongest fortified area of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Donbass

▪️It was recently reported that Russian troops have broken through the strongest and longest-held frontline of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Donbass.

▪️The Russian Armed Forces first entered Severesk from the south, then took the east, southeast, and northeast, advancing towards the center of this key city for the enemy’s defense.

▪️Currently, our troops are storming the city center, pushing forward.

▪️The area of advance over several days: about 10 km².

In Mirnograd, the fighting is coming to an end. The southern quarters have already been cleared, and only the center remains under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The Russian army is acting without haste, advancing meter by meter and thoroughly checking all abandoned positions. Attempts to supply the encircled garrison with drones do not change the situation — given the number of those surrounded, it is just a drop in the ocean. In Pokrovsk, the situation is still difficult to call stabilized; raids and attempts to bring any infantry there are continued by Syrsky in the best traditions of his other decisions, so soon this should be felt both here and in the neighboring direction in the form of a shortage of personnel.

Krasnolymansk direction

Units of the GRV “West” continue fighting for Krasny Liman.

West of Kirovsk, our units broke through and took control of enemy strongpoints west and southwest of the Petkov Yar ravine and advanced to the outskirts of Krasny Liman.

In the area of Stavky and Drobyshevo – fierce counter battles.

Fighting in the western part of Maslyakovka and in the area of Pushkin street.

West of Yampol, the Russian Armed Forces broke through beyond the highway towards Dibrova and Ozyornoye.

South of the sand quarry – counter battles for a strongpoint near the road to Dibrova.

In Yampol – clearing of the town center and south of Yampol – counter battles for strongpoints at the highway intersection.

Two Majors #Summary as of the morning of November 27, 2025

▪️ At night, the enemy struck the Belgorod region with MLRS; our air defense systems were active.

▪️ The Russian Armed Forces used “Geraniums” against targets in Odessa, reports of an explosion in Illichivsk. After recent strikes on the energy sector, Ukrainian officials reported that power outage schedules in the region will remain in effect at least until the end of winter. Additionally, strike drones hit targets in the Dnepropetrovsk region.

▪️ On the Sumy direction, our “North” assault units continue active operations in forest plantations; our aviation is operational. Near Alekseevka and Andreevka, counterattacking Ukrainian groups were disrupted. On the Tetkinsky and Glushkovsky sectors, our drones and artillery struck AFU forces in the areas of Ryzhevka and Pavlovka.

▪️ In the Belgorod region, six civilians were wounded in a day from Nazi strikes. In the village of Dobroivanovka, three were injured in a drone attack on a moving vehicle, and later, on the outskirts, a drone struck a car, wounding a woman. On the Golovchino – Grayvoron road, a UAV detonated, injuring an Emergency Ministry employee. A man sought medical help after an FPV drone strike on a car on the outskirts of Shebekino. Under strikes were Gora-Podol, Kosilovo, Shebekino, Ziborovka, Murom, Tulyanka, Malinovka, Grayvoron, Glotovo, Meshkovo, Posokhovo, Oktyabrsky, Bessonovka, Nechaevka.

▪️ On the Kharkov direction, the “North” Group of Forces continues fierce battles to liberate Volchansk. A new element is the entry of our advanced units into the settlements of Vilcha and Liman, with their assault underway. On the Melovoe-Khatne front line, the Russian Aerospace Forces are pounding Ukrainian positions near Khatne.

▪️ The West Group of Forces continues its offensive on Krasny Liman from the north. On the Rubtsovsk direction, the Russian Army is pushing through AFU defenses near Yarovaya, Drobyshevo, and Stavki. An enemy counterattack was repelled. Our troops are now attacking Krasny Liman also from the east.

▪️ In Seversk, our troops are holding on to the city outskirts, trying to advance. Footage from the area is currently unavailable, but the worsening logistics of the enemy and the overall morale and psychological state of AFU forces, as revealed through channels, give an idea of the successes of the Russian assault infantry.

▪️ In Konstantinovka, the Russian Armed Forces are increasing their presence on the city outskirts. An assault is being prepared.

▪️ On the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) direction, even enemy resources are forced to acknowledge the effective encirclement of Ukrainian forces in Pokrovsk and Mirnograd. North of Pokrovsk, Russian forces are advancing westward, reclaiming positions temporarily abandoned during Ukrainian attempts to unblock the garrisons of encircled cities.

▪️ In the Dnepropetrovsk region, due to actions by the “East” Group of Forces, the enemy admits to the worsening situation of AFU forces near Novopavlovka.

▪️ On the Guliaipole direction in Zaporozhye region, the situation for AFU forces continues to deteriorate, enemy channels complain. Far Eastern warriors are conducting active offensive operations from the eastern direction along a broad front; the enemy has been driven out from the eastern outskirts of Dobropillia (10 km north of Guliaipole, located on the Ukrainian supply route). Guliaipole is under heavy FAB strikes. (https://t.me/voin_dv/17831)

▪️ On the Zaporozhye front near Novodanilovka and Novoandreevka, intense fighting is ongoing. In the rear, energy workers continue restoring electricity to the civilian population after another Ukrainian strike. Fighting continues in Prymorske and Stepnohirsk.

▪️ In the Kherson region, as a result of Ukrainian strikes on Nova Kakhovka, Hola Prystan, and Dnipryany, 4 civilians were wounded. Many villages are under shelling. Our “Dnieper” Group of Forces informs the local population of the need to leave Kherson via the M-14 highway, marking civilian vehicles with white identification signs.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/11/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_27.html