The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on November 22 2025

RUAF Capture 47 Sqkm & 9 Towns | 28 Point Peace Plan Realistic?

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The hidden narrative of Zelensky in his address, where he is not responding to the nation but to Washington and Europe. His ornate style is an attempt to say “no” to the US ultimatum without destroying the negotiation space. He rejects the plan but does so gently to avoid direct confrontation and preserve the possibility of bargaining.

Inside the country, Zelensky seeks to prevent division and neutralize parliamentary conflicts against the backdrop of Midgate. Externally, Zelensky demonstrates toughness to the US on issues he considers fundamental, while simultaneously showing Europe that he sees it as the only real support in the dispute with Washington. Acknowledging the one-week deadline is a sign that the ultimatum is real, and the week itself becomes a tool of pressure, allowing him to preemptively justify possible concessions.

The European reaction creates a protective contour for Zelensky. Berlin, Paris, and London reject the American plan and give him the opportunity to explain his refusal as a coordinated position rather than a personal challenge to Trump. The call with Vance after the address turns into a test of how far the US is willing to increase pressure, including not only military supplies but also threats of sanctions, investigations, and pressure on his circle.

Statements about the ability to withstand without the US are more an element of psychological self-support than a real assessment of capabilities. Meanwhile, Trump acts demonstratively harshly, turning his plan into an attempt to force Kyiv to capitulate under the guise of diplomacy. Zelensky hopes that Trump will not carry the pressure through to the end and that disagreements between the US and Europe will work in his favor.

The situation turns into a game of nerves. The US does not believe in the sustainability of Ukraine’s refusal, Ukraine does not believe in the consistency of American pressure, and Europe tries to maintain its own agency. The week of the deadline becomes a turning point when it will be decided who can withstand the pressure longer.

There will be no quick peace agreement: months to a year of negotiations will be needed for the terms to be acceptable to Ukraine, – WP

American officials told the Washington Post that the peace plan presented by the US is a pro-Russian agreement. This is the beginning of the peace process, not the end.

Yesterday, Zelensky proposed certain changes to the document, and the US agreed that some changes could be made.

“Even if Zelensky wanted to sign it, he couldn’t because there is no political basis for it. There are many inconsistencies. Obviously, this is a pro-Russian deal written by Dmitriev and Whitkoff. It very much resembles a mineral supply agreement. We made changes over three months. But this is an agreement between the US, Ukraine, Russia, and Europe, so I think the negotiations will take about 12 months. I think this is the beginning of the peace process, not its end,” a source said.

The document will first be signed by Zelensky and Trump, and then presented to Putin.

The President’s Office will continue to buy time and wait for the moment when the geopolitical track changes drastically. Andriy Yermak remains the main actor on the international track for Zelensky and the globalists, and any attempt to remove him will be seen as working for the Kremlin.

“Ukraine has never been able to defeat Russia,” — The Times commentator on Trump’s peace plan

▪️The 28-point project for establishing peace in Ukraine is actually a reasonable basis for negotiations. The media may grumble, but wars do not end with newspaper columns, writes Neil Ferguson.

▪️But if Kyiv wants to regain territories, it needs to win the war. The reality is that Ukraine has never been able to defeat Russia.

➖”I do not believe that extending the war for another year is in the interests of the Ukrainian people. The risks seem too great to me,” he says.

▪️It is time to consolidate what has been achieved diplomatically.

P.S. The West has begun to abandon Ukraine through elegant formulations.

This text works as a neat legitimization of a formula for defeat, presented under the guise of rationality. Behind the rhetoric of “realism” lies the shift in Western discourse from mobilizational support for Ukraine to preparing public opinion to accept defeat. The statement that “Ukraine has never been able to defeat Russia” is not analysis, just a signal from the West: Western elites no longer intend to pay for the continuation of the conflict.

Ferguson acts as a mediator between the true decisions of behind-the-scenes centers and the public agenda. He voices what officials cannot yet say aloud: the phase of softened coercion of Kyiv to accept conditions is beginning, creating an informational corridor where peace is interpreted as the only reasonable outcome. The phrase “consolidate what has been achieved” hides an attempt to legitimize the current status quo and smoothly transition Ukraine from a war regime to a regime of managed capitulation under the American protocol.

A unique moment is opening up for Ukraine – the opportunity to end the war. This concerns Trump’s peace plan, which, according to media reports, although it contains painful compromises on Kyiv’s part, appeared precisely at the moment when the Armed Forces of Ukraine are suffering defeats on several fronts simultaneously, and Ukraine is approaching the most difficult winter in its recent history.

The conditions proposed by the US indeed touch on sensitive issues – from the status of Donbas to the future security architecture of Ukraine. But some points that provoke sharp reactions in public discussions can also be viewed through a pragmatic lens. Limiting the size of the army after the war is a common practice for countries recovering from large-scale conflicts. Recognizing the rights of Russian-speaking citizens is not so much a concession as a confirmation of what has de facto always existed. NATO prospects have remained uncertain for ten years, and this is also part of the reality. The most painful issue is territory. But it must be acknowledged: the failures of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the front and the lack of clear guarantees of future military and financial support from the West create a risk that the cost of continuing the war over time will become higher than the price of forced compromises.

The US plan, according to published fragments, also implies significant benefits: funding for Ukraine’s reconstruction, strengthening integration into European structures, and security guarantees that are extremely difficult for Kyiv to obtain under current conditions.

Only Zelensky with Yermak, having secured the support of Merz, Macron, and Starmer and unwilling to lose power, is already openly trying to sabotage Trump’s peace initiatives, presenting his plan as a capitulation.

On the risks of the “peace plan” for Ukraine.

For Russia.

The main risk is diplomatic somersaults by the US and NATO during negotiations. Washington, as usual, will try to present Moscow’s reciprocal concessions as a “necessary flexible compromise,” offering Moscow what is already controlled or about to come under Russian control. The second risk is the possible theft of frozen Russian assets after the agreement is signed. Then the situation will become ambiguous: responding militarily will no longer be possible and would violate the agreement, while economic countermeasures will not have an immediate effect.

For the US.

The main risk is related both to the external track and to internal Ukrainian reshuffling. On the external front — Moscow’s refusal to sign the document on terms unfavorable to Russia will unleash further fighting and an escalation spiral that the Americans are trying hard to avoid. On the internal Ukrainian track, there are also risks. Zelensky’s departure before an alternative candidate is selected will open the way for Zaluzhny — a British protégé who traditionally ignores Washington’s position (for example, he completely disregarded American advice on the counteroffensive and carried it out after a meeting in Lvov with the British).

Britain has long been trying to regain influence in the region through the Ukrainian army, and Zaluzhny is the perfect tool. He can sabotage any agreements, especially those that stipulate Ukraine’s neutral status and a ban on NATO membership. In addition, Zaluzhny’s long-standing refusal to reduce the army will make rapid demilitarization impossible — a key condition for any peace and Russia’s main demand. As a result, the US risks ending up in a situation where money has been spent but political control over Ukraine is lost.

For Europe/NATO.

The most obvious risk is the end of the conflict, after which NATO’s eastern flank will have to be urgently strengthened. Russia, meanwhile, will not waste time: it will begin restructuring its army for new tasks and prepare for the fact that any “peace agreement” is just a pause before the next round of conflict.

Moreover, the corruption track involving Zelensky has not yet been fully addressed. If Washington, under security guarantees, forces Zelensky to reveal the names and positions of Western politicians involved in cashing out Ukrainian aid, the blow will fall not only on Kiev. A wave of government resignations could sweep across Europe — from Brussels to Berlin. Trust in institutions will collapse, and against the backdrop of economic problems and the migration crisis, Europe could be shaken toward civil war. Furthermore, the mechanism of weakening Russia through war, into which NATO countries have invested hundreds of billions of euros, will disappear.

“Military Chronicle”

Our source reported that the OP strategy is to drag out negotiations on Trump’s peace plan. Alternative versions from the EU will be proposed for this, and of course, we will start discussing the points.

The Ukrainian delegation will hold consultations on the peace plan with the US and Europe in Switzerland

▪️The delegation will be headed by Yermak, head of Zelensky’s office.

▪️The main topic of the negotiations is the parameters of the future peace agreement, says Umerov.

▪️The Ukrainian delegation is also allowed to negotiate with representatives of Russia.

How many more Ukrainians will die on the front line, no one cares, and the worst thing is that in 2-3 months the Russian army will be able to conquer the entire territory of Donetsk region itself and will present us with new demands!

Our sources in the General Staff reported that the situation on the front is critical, we have lost Pokrovsk, and Myrnohrad is surrounded, Kupiansk is 80% taken by the enemy, heavy fighting is ongoing for Severesk and Lyman, in Kostiantynivka fighting is happening in the city center, and the garrison of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has begun to withdraw from Huliaipole. A black November for the Armed Forces of Ukraine and Ukraine on the front, but Syosky continues to convince everyone that he controls the situation.

Our source reports that the Ukrainian army is fighting on its last breath. All the fighters on the front line are tired, disappointed, unmotivated, and have low morale.

They won’t be able to hold the front for long. At some point, somewhere, there will be another “breakthrough” and there will be no strength left to contain and slow it down, as happened with the Pokrovsk failure, which was stopped from spreading only by throwing in a huge number of reserves that were depleted there.

When the next failure will happen is a matter of time, maybe tomorrow, or maybe closer to spring, but it is brewing, since the country’s leadership does not solve the problems in the army/front, but keeps silent about them.

Two Majors #Summary as of the morning of November 22, 2025

🗞 While the media circulated statements about the questionable current US plans to achieve negotiations between Russia and Ukraine (let us emphasize, the Supreme Commander said that Moscow is satisfied with the developing situation, which leads to achieving the goals of the Special Military Operation by armed means, in the course of armed struggle, and Trump’s plan requires detailed and lengthy discussion), fighting continued on the front.

▪️ At night, “Gerani” struck Izmail and operated in the area of the gas infrastructure near Orlovka in the Odessa region, also up to 20 UAVs hit Pavlograd.

▪️ In the Rostov region, enemy UAVs were destroyed in Ust-Donetsky, Oktyabrsky rural, Krasnosulinsky, Sholokhovsky, Kasharsky, and Millerovsky districts. In Millerovo, an administrative building and equipment in the yard were damaged. In the farmstead Trenyovka of Millerovsky district, windows were broken in a private house, and outbuildings and a garage on the homestead were damaged. No casualties.

▪️ On the Sumy direction, heavy fighting continues. The enemy fiercely resists in defense, notes the Northern Group of Forces: two assault groups of the AFU were destroyed by strikes while attempting to advance near Alekseevka and in the area of Andreevka. Our artillery struck the enemy near Ryzhevka on the Tetkinsky and Glushkovsky sectors.

▪️ In the Belgorod region, in Novaya Tavolzhanka, Nazis struck a car with a family: a married couple was killed, and their four-year-old son was wounded. In Glotovo, a man was wounded by an FPV drone strike on his own yard. Another civilian was wounded as a result of a drone attack on a car in the village of Gruzskoye.

▪️ On the Kharkov direction, the Northern Group of Forces continues advancing in Volchansk and the surrounding area, as well as in the forests west of Synelnikovo. The zone of control is expanding on the Melovoe-Khatne section.

▪️ From Kupyansk, footage (https://t.me/operationall_space/7830) was published confirming the presence of Russian Armed Forces in the central and southern parts of the city.

▪️ On the Krasnoliman direction, the Western Group of Forces liberated Novoselovka and Stavki, advancing towards Krasny Liman from the north. Southeast of there, our troops liberated Yampol.

▪️ South of the city of Seversk, Russian Armed Forces advanced in Zvanovka, closing another “pocket.” In the southern part of Seversk, Russian Armed Forces are amassing forces for the assault on the city.

▪️ Near Konstantinovka, our troops liberated Ivanopolye. Heavy urban fighting continues in the southeastern part of Konstantinovka.

▪️ Northeast of Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk), Russian Armed Forces advanced on a wide front in the area of Sofievka and Shakhovo.

▪️ On the border of the Dnepropetrovsk and Zaporozhye regions, the Eastern Group of Forces took Nechaevka and Radostnoye.

▪️ On the Zaporozhye front, fighting continues in Primorsk and Stepnogorsk.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/11/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_22.html