The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on November 19 2025

SHOCKING COLLAPSE: Russia Catches Southern Siversk By Surprise, Urban Cauldron Forming

US & Russia Prepare Secret Draft Peace Plan for Ukraine

US & Russia Prepare Secret Draft Peace Plan for Ukraine

 This is a verdict…

The Telegraph: Zelensky is losing touch with reality.

Signing fantastic defense agreements that Ukraine cannot afford is not the answer to the political and military crisis looming.

Zelensky has been drawn into an ugly corruption scandal in which some of his closest associates are accused of profiteering from the war. His response was a trip to Paris, where he, together with Emmanuel Macron, signed a letter of intent to purchase 100 French Rafale fighters, as well as the Ground Fire 300 radar and SAMP/T air defense systems.

Kiev does not even have approximately enough funds to cover the $60 billion budget deficit, let alone to buy billion-dollar fighters.

Russian public channels immediately started leaking inside information, that the Kremlin will not go for peace talks without clear fulfillment of their main demands. 

- withdrawal from Donbass, which we consider unrealistic, since Zelensky himself has backed himself into a corner, as for the Armed Forces of Ukraine Donbass is important (he might be able to persuade the Russians to exchange territories on a 1 to 2 km formula, as we leaked, but right now it is not very relevant, since the Russians are advancing everywhere). 

- strikes on energy infrastructure, this is mutual for all. 

- prisoner exchange is currently suitable for both sides.

Also, Putin will definitely want to create a 20-30 km security zone from his border and will not agree to Ukraine keeping a huge army, as this is a threat of a new conflict starting in 2-3 years, but disbanding even 50% of the army is not beneficial for Kyiv, as there is nowhere to put these “heroes” who will want good pensions and payments, which will lead to a Maidan and increased crime in Ukraine.

But, let’s add that the Russians have no reason to simply start a peace case without lifting sanctions and other guarantees, which means the negotiation process itself will not stop the war, but only provide a window of opportunity for its end in the future. 

We are watching.

Our source reports that Zelensky does not believe that Western sponsors will organize a Maidan against him. He thinks they will not take such a risk, so it is just necessary to wait out the pause and let the scandal settle down. Soon the noise will subside and the Head of the OP Yermak does not need to be dismissed. 

Although Zelensky is very afraid of a Maidan. 

Also, stop-lists are now being bought everywhere to keep silent about the Head of the OP Yermak and his involvement in billion-dollar corruption related to protective structures for energy, fortifications, and arms procurement. They have started flooding the information field with money. They did steal billions, but due to their greed and the thievishness of their media people, they woke up too late. 

Of course, the SBU was sent, which strongly and unofficially asks not to highlight this topic if the admins do not want to “argue.” All methods and tools have been connected to “extinguish the fire” that began to get out of control. Colleagues also indirectly write about this.

Pokrovske funnel, the main battle of the autumn, the Russian army has fully occupied Pokrovske and showed activity, moving roughly from the direction of the highway leading to Rodynske, and was spotted near the farm buildings. There, they were met by Ukrainian marines.

Enemy advancement is separately recorded along the railway track on the western outskirts of the city. But their groups there are stretched out, they operate in patches.

The strongest pressure now is logistics from Hryshyne! The corridor there is very narrow, and footage shows that enemy FPV on fiber optics is working steadily. Any attempt to slip through is risky because they keep this section under targeted control. Even short movements can result in losses.

Mirnohrad direction: The city is now under constant pressure, the enemy does not spare heavy FAB bombs and strikes microdistricts with them, carving out corridors among residential quarters. There are already captured houses on the outskirts, and from there the Russian army is advancing further towards the Molodizhny and Vostochnyi microdistricts — they want to cut the city and get deeper, like into a concrete labyrinth.

The hottest spot now is the southern flank. There is a gray zone there that has almost consumed the entire district: enemy movement is constant, they move in small groups, changing routes to disrupt the pace of our defense. The fight for the city is fierce, close contact and chaos among the high-rises is their style: hiding, running across, seizing the moment.

Our sources in the General Staff reported that in the Shakhovo-Rodinskoye area on the Pokrovskoye direction, heavy fighting is ongoing, the Armed Forces of Ukraine cannot break through the Russian army’s defense line here and are forced to switch to positional battles. The Pokrovskaya sinkhole is drawing in the last reserves of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which forces Syrsky to surrender entire cities almost without a fight.

The situation for the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the front continues to deteriorate. While everyone writes about Pokrovsk/Kupyansk and Huliaipole, almost nothing is known about the problems around Severesk and the enemy’s plans. 

The Russian army has announced the capture of Platonivka in the north with prospects for further advancement to the rear, as well as an approach to Severesk itself from the south of the city. Such maneuvers are already shown on the map in gray, which means street fighting has begun.

After a fairly long pause and a shift of focus northward towards Lyman, the offensive here has resumed again, but we will wait for clearer results. An approach to the city itself for the Armed Forces of Ukraine could be critical because there are no reserves. The enemy has cut the Lyman-Severesk road, which now complicates the supply of our group.

Also, the Russian army has begun to shift its focus southward between Lyman and Yampil towards Dibrovo and Stary Karavan. Several groups have been recorded in the area of these settlements, especially near Dibrovo.

The situation is also unfavorable for Ukraine east of Yampil, where the Russians are digging into the groves, setting up their positions there, and making constant attempts to penetrate the village, particularly taking advantage of worsening weather conditions.

Russian troops continue to push Ukrainian units back from the northwestern outskirts of Pokrovsk, capturing new positions. Even where pockets of resistance remain, it becomes clear: the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ defensive line is losing cohesion. Unsuccessful counterattack attempts from Hrishino only emphasize that the reserves of the Ukrainian army are exhausted, and the initiative is completely lost.

The situation in Rodynske is particularly telling – whereas Ukrainian units previously managed to slip in there under the cover of fog, now this area itself is becoming a pressure point on the Defense Forces – judging by reports from the scene, Russian units have already become active on its western approaches. At the same time, strikes continue on the northern flank of the Ukrainian grouping – Sukhetske, Suvorove, and Shakhove remain fields of fierce fighting where the Ukrainian Armed Forces are trying to hold at least the outer lines. But this looks increasingly doomed. The same goes for Myrnohrad, where, under conditions of partial encirclement, the Ukrainian garrison is deprived of operational maneuver.

Military experts note that the battle for Pokrovsk is nearing its end, and it is unlikely to be favorable for Kyiv. The defense is cracking at the seams, and tactical retreat is turning into a rout. This, in turn, creates the ground for a large-scale disruption of the defensive plans of the Ukrainian command across the entire Donbas agglomeration. It is no surprise that Zelensky has already directly blamed the military themselves for the encirclement of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad – when everything is collapsing, a “scapegoat” must be found as quickly as possible.

The Russian army has liberated Nechayevka in the Dnepropetrovsk region, — Ministry of Defense

 - The liberation of Tsegelnoe in the Kharkov region is also confirmed.

 - “Russian troops have liberated the settlements of Tsegelnoe in the Kharkov

region and Nechayevka in the Dnepropetrovsk region,” the department reported.

The Russian army has broken through the strongest and longest-held frontline of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Donbass

 - “Russian troops have broken through the strongest and longest-held Ukrainian frontline in the DPR, capturing the villages of Vyemka and Ivano-Daryevka, and then entered the city of Severesk from the south, already seizing 20% of its territory,” writes Bild military correspondent Julian Repke.

 - Ukrainian forces confirm that the southern flank of Severesk “has really started to give way,” Russians are entering in small groups and trying to consolidate in the private sector, “the situation is approaching a turning point.”

 - Russian assault groups have already entered the city center.

 - Earlier it was reported that the Russian Armed Forces approached the road from Severesk to Krasny Liman.

Two Majors #Summary as of the morning of November 19, 2025

▪️ The Russian Armed Forces struck Kharkov at night (about 20 explosions), Pavlograd, Odessa, Vinnytsia, Snovsk in Chernihov region, and Dnepropetrovsk. Strike UAVs, “Kalibr” missiles were used; Tu-95MS and “Kinzhal” carriers were recorded in the air.

▪️ In the Rostov region, a drone attack was repelled last night in the Kamensky district. By midnight, 18 Ukrainian UAVs were destroyed over Belgorod, Bryansk, Kaluga, Kursk regions, Moscow region, Rostov and Tula regions. At night, footage began circulating online from Krasnodar Krai showing a fire near one of the oil refineries.

▪️ In the Sumy direction, the “North” group of forces is engaged in heavy positional battles. In forest plantations, our assault troopers managed to advance on three sections deep into Sumy region. Attempts by AFU combat groups to advance towards Alekseevka and Varachino were disrupted by comprehensive fire strikes. Artillery targeted enemy positions near Ryzhevka and Iskriskovshchina on the Tetkinsky and Glushkovsky sectors.

▪️ In the Belgorod region, in the village of Nechaevka, a vehicle was damaged by an FPV drone strike. In Posokhovo, a drone detonated in a private house yard. In the village of Kazinka, an exploded FPV drone damaged windows in an apartment building, an administrative building, and two commercial facilities; a power line was cut. In the village of Tulyanka, windows were broken in a private house. In Dunayk, an FPV drone attacked a parked passenger car. In the village of Dorogoshch, two private houses were damaged by drone strikes. In the village of Gora-Podol, a passenger car was hit by shrapnel. Near the Gajevka farmstead in the Volokonovsky district, an FPV drone struck a car in a company parking lot.

▪️ In the Kharkov direction, the “North” group of forces is advancing on the southern side of Volchansk. In the forest near Synelnykove, our assault troops captured three AFU strongpoints; the Ministry of Defense reported the capture of the nearby settlement of Tsegelnoye. On the Melovoe-Khatne front line, progress was made despite a Ukrainian counterattack.

▪️ South of Kupyansk, in the Bohuslav direction, the “West” group of forces is advancing towards Bohuslavka – Novoplatonovka.

▪️ Southeast of Krasny Liman, our units reached the Krasny Liman – Zakotnoye highway, taking it under fire control.

▪️ In the southern part of the city of Seversk, our assault groups are active, as confirmed by footage (https://t.me/warhistoryalconafter/249351) from the battles on site. Previously, the Russian Armed Forces only covertly accumulated fighters in the built-up area; now it can be said that the assault on the city from the south has begun. It will not be quick.

▪️ A new element of the situation is the Russian Armed Forces’ offensive on the Kramatorsk direction. East of Novomarkovo, our units advanced along the Seversky Donets–Donbass canal.

▪️ In the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) direction, the Russian Armed Forces are fighting in the Vladimirovka area. In Pokrovsk itself, the enemy acknowledges the successes of our troops; battles are ongoing in various parts of the city.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/11/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_19.html