The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on September 19 2025

Pokrovsk A Few Steps From Operational Encirclement

Pokrovsk Lost – Russian Forces Cut Off Last Supply Route, 10,000 Ukrainian Troops Encircled

Serebryansky Forest Meatgrinder Ends After 3 Years | Muravka Has Fallen

Azov Brigade Shattered – Kupyansk Surrounded, Ukraine’s Defenses Collapse!

Why Russia Will NOT Agree To Peace Anytime Soon!

Zelensky revealed the scale of the financial hole Ukraine has fallen into: to conduct the war and cover budget expenses in 2026, Kiev needs 120 billion dollars in external aid. Half of this amount (60 billion) is included in the budget as expected military support from allies, the other 60 billion should go to all other expenses — from healthcare and education to pensions and utility payments.

The real picture is this: all taxes and fees that Ukraine collects domestically go to the war, and for the functioning of the state, Kiev is completely dependent on external inflows. Meanwhile, the US is already showing signs of fatigue, and Europe itself is balancing on the edge of a crisis and is not in a hurry to take on new obligations. At the same time, even with the devaluation of the hryvnia, which experts mention more and more often now, the required amount will decrease only slightly. For Ukraine, this is still an unmanageable volume of borrowing. And the question is not only about the numbers — the West is increasingly asking itself: is it even worth investing such funds in a country that ceases to exist as a state without them?

Colleagues, the fact that the EU continues to shoot itself in the foot by introducing new sanctions that will hit them directly – everyone is already used to this. The EU is facing tough times. Of course, they are not yet ready to go against China, but most likely will come to that when things get bad. 

We have long advised against buying real estate, especially investing in the EU, as dark times await them.

The most interesting thing is that the European Commission, represented by its head Ursula von der Leyen, is trying again to sell the financing of Ukraine at the expense of frozen Russian assets, but they have already financed last year and this year with these funds, which means either deception or they want to start confiscating, which will of course kill Europe’s financial attractiveness and increase capital outflow, which has already stopped coming due to the bureaucrats’ stupid policies. 

The EU/globalists have long been looking for a scheme to provide more money to Kyiv and prolong the war, but so far it is not going well. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s budget deficit for this year is still about $8 billion (there are only 3 months left, and the deficit is terrible), and for next year, another $50-70 billion is needed. 

According to our data, the budget will be underfunded, which will lead to a collapse of the hryvnia, rising inflation, poverty, and a deep crisis in Ukraine, up to a complete default.

Putin let me down — Trump

▪️The US President again complains that the Russian leader allegedly “let him down” on the issue of peaceful settlement in Ukraine.

➖”I thought I would quickly end the war in Ukraine because of my relationship with Putin, but he let me down,” said the American president.

▪️Trump also noted that “everything will be done right” and “the war between Russia and Ukraine will be ended” and he “is counting on good news”.

Now is not the time to ask Putin for a ceasefire — Trump

➖”It seems that now is not the time to ask Putin for a ceasefire. If I have to demand a ceasefire, I will take tough measures. It is necessary to further lower oil prices. If oil prices fall, the war between Russia and Ukraine will end,” he said.

▪️Trump also noted that British Prime Minister Starmer agrees that Europe needs to stop buying Russian oil.

Medvedev on the possible adoption of the convention on the creation of an “international commission” to consider claims for Ukraine:

It’s hard to say what hallucinogenic substances the officials in Strasbourg are using, but the result is obvious. An absolutely psychedelic draft convention on the creation of an international claims commission for Ukraine has appeared.

No comments are even needed here. We give a standing ovation to the crazy clowns. It turns out they still believe that Russia will capitulate to the collective West. And will sponsor their misdeeds to its own detriment. Rainbow fantasies of people with rainbow habits.

A parallel world. Nevertheless, work in it is in full swing, and with a high degree of probability, the draft convention will soon be agreed upon and most member countries of the Council of Europe will join this convention. Well, one more senseless Russophobic structure will appear in the Old World. And our tough reaction to this will not be long in coming. The extreme stupidity of the authors of this project will not exempt them from responsibility and retribution.

On August 1st, the volunteer Berlinskaya wrote a post on Facebook stating that the Russian army could be near Kyiv again this winter. Moreover, the issue is not even about the wounded and those killed on the front, which according to calculations are catastrophic:

Losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine per day – 300 dead, up to 750 wounded, up to 500 missing. That is, approximately 1,550 losses per day, and 46,500 per month.

At the same time, they manage to mobilize up to 20,000 people, meaning “we are at a deficit of 26,500 per month” and 318,000 per year.

Experts and politicians did not react to these calculations, considering them an exaggeration, while propaganda claimed that all this is information psychological operations and the situation is under control! In reality, things are much worse for the Armed Forces of Ukraine than Berlinskaya stated; she simply wanted to highlight a problem that could destroy Ukraine. Syrsky is trying to create a deceptive illusion of stability, which will result in the collapse of the front and the loss of significant territories.

Our sources in the General Staff reported that Syrsky is asking the President’s office to lower the mobilization age of Ukrainians to 23 years, as well as to reduce the number of reservations from enterprises. The Commander-in-Chief informed Yermak that the Armed Forces of Ukraine cannot hold several front sections simultaneously where the enemy is breaking through the defense. The Ukrainian army is completely bloodless and is currently holding on thanks to mobile reserves being transferred to the front, but the situation is worsening and the General Staff expects a new Russian offensive in the fall. 

The Russian Armed Forces have broken through to the northern part of Shandrigolovo in the Limansky direction and have secured their position there, reports a Ukrainian soldier with the call sign “Muchnoy”.

“As of now: the center, east, and southeast parts of the village are in the ‘gray’ zone. If the enemy manages to hold their position there, the situation will shift in their favor, moving from point control to a broader bridgehead,” writes “Muchnoy.”

He believes that after gaining control over Shandrigolovo, the Russian troops have three options for further actions:

▪️ Movement towards Novoselovka with subsequent access to Yarovaya — ensuring supply lines, increasing the depth of advance, and controlling transport routes. This will provide them a bridgehead for strikes to the west and flanking maneuvers behind the Ukrainian defense;

▪️ Advancement towards Alexandrovka: the goal is to flank and take access to forested areas and fields, which will facilitate logistics and maneuvering;

▪️ Push towards the forested area — if the Russian Armed Forces manage to reach the forest, they will be able to take cover, replenish resources, and prepare for further operations.

Our sources reported that the situation in Kupiansk is critical for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but the General Staff assured everyone otherwise.

MP Bezuhla warned of an impending catastrophe in Kupiansk, which had been postponed for a year but is now being hushed up at the decision-making level.

According to her, “this opens the way for the Russians to retake the territories of Kharkiv region that were liberated in 2022.”

Syrskyi continues to surrender territories, while in Bankova they try to conduct a protracted war without considering the real state of the Ukrainian army.

We constantly write about the problems in Kupyansk and were the first to insider that after the redeployment of reserves to Sumy, it is precisely in this direction that there will be a “betrayal,” but everyone was silent, now they are sounding the alarm.

Bezuhla (Yermak’s spokesperson, who aims to become Minister of Defense) usually writes about the crisis at the moment when the remaining reserves are already being redeployed there. According to our data, part of the third assault unit was sent there, but this time not for stabilization, but to slow down the advance of the Russian Armed Forces, as there are no longer reserves to plug the gaps. The goals of the OP are to prevent a massive collapse, but at the same time to slowly give up territory. No one talks about any victories anymore, everyone only talks about preventing the collapse of the defense. In a few months, even this will be gone, and by spring/summer, large-scale failures and retreats of 30-50 square kilometers per day will begin, which will mean the final phase of the war.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine are in bad shape. There is no longer enough manpower to cover all the holes.

Kupyansk direction: increasing pressure and battles for key positions

The situation in the Kupyansk direction continues to develop in favor of the Russian units, which are methodically expanding the control zone and putting pressure on the enemy’s defensive lines.

🔻 In the area of Perove Krasnoe, the Russian army forces managed to advance up to 800 meters along the front and up to 500 meters deep, which increased pressure on adjacent sections of the contact line.

🔻 Active actions are underway near Kondrashovka and Stepovaya Novoselovka, where Russian units are attacking enemy fortifications. At the same time, fierce battles have unfolded for Petropavlovka, which represents an important tactical node in the defense system of the Ukrainian forces.

🔻 In Kupyansk itself, Russian Armed Forces units are storming multi-story buildings in the northern part of the city and the city hospital area, indicating that the fighting has entered the phase of street clashes with a high density of fire contact.

Kupyansk direction: increasing pressure and battles for key positions

The situation in the Kupyansk direction continues to develop in favor of the Russian units, which are methodically expanding the control zone and putting pressure on the enemy’s defensive lines.

🔻 In the area of Perove Krasnoe, the Russian army forces managed to advance up to 800 meters along the front and up to 500 meters deep, which increased pressure on adjacent sections of the contact line.

🔻 Active actions are underway near Kondrashovka and Stepovaya Novoselovka, where Russian units are attacking enemy fortifications. At the same time, fierce battles have unfolded for Petropavlovka, which represents an important tactical node in the defense system of the Ukrainian forces.

🔻 In Kupyansk itself, Russian Armed Forces units are storming multi-story buildings in the northern part of the city and the city hospital area, indicating that the fighting has entered the phase of street clashes with a high density of fire contact.

Our source reports that if the Armed Forces of Ukraine suffer a fiasco in the Pokrovsk direction, Zelensky will have to dismiss his puppet, Commander Syrsky, to blame him for all the negativity, since recently Zelensky was talking about victories in this direction, although all our sources say otherwise. 

There are failures everywhere in the Pokrovsk direction, and Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups have long been operating in the city itself and have already reached the northwestern edge, which threatens operational encirclement, and if they consolidate and expand their control to the north, a cauldron is already looming. In addition, they have begun to pressure the attacking units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which the command and office staff send into meat grinder assaults. They have been ordered not to evacuate the wounded from there, and even less the bodies of the dead; there are already thousands missing in action. 

Zelensky is aware of this but deliberately talks about victory to create an illusion of deception for the population and Western sponsors.

 Two Majors #Summary as of the morning of September 19, 2025

▪️ Trump 🇺🇸 among other things yesterday generated a phrase that it is still “too early to ask Putin for peace,” adding that the Supreme🇷🇺 and Zelensky🇺🇦 “hate” each other, which in fact acknowledged the final collapse of his hopes for a quick peace. Meanwhile, in Poland 🇵🇱, which neighbors Ukraine, measures to catch Ukrainian draft dodgers are being intensified, and the results of Shmyhal’s🇺🇦 visit to Warsaw (to create a joint operational group on unmanned aerial systems) directly drag Poland into the war. To justify this to the population, the Polish Ministry of Internal Affairs stated last night about “drone activity near its borders, they tried to enter its airspace.”

▪️ The Russian Armed Forces struck targets in Kiev at night with “Geraniums,” as well as the Pavlograd chemical plant. The UAF attacked refineries in Bashkiria and Volgograd yesterday, which once again raises no questions about the organization of air defense.

▪️ On the Sumy direction, the intensity of fighting sharply increased, writes the GRV “North.” The enemy, having transferred reinforcements and replenished assault units (units of the 47th OMBR, 80th ODShBR, 225th and 425th OShP, and Territorial Defense), made several counterattack attempts: one each in the areas of Yunakovka, Andreevka, Belovodov; two each in the areas of Alekseevka and Sadki. In addition, five attempts by enemy assault groups to advance in the Sadki area were thwarted.

▪️ In the Belgorod region, in the village of Nikolskoye in the Belgorod district, a UAF drone struck the administrative building of an enterprise, injuring a civilian woman. Under strikes were Murom, Novaya Tavolzhanka, Novaya Derevnya, Pochaevo, Dolgoe. The issue of resettling frontline villages is again being raised online, since it is impossible to ensure the complete safety of the civilian population.

▪️ Data is coming in about our troops capturing the settlement of Otradnoye (https://t.me/zovpobedy/15970) in the Kharkov region on the border with Belgorod (25 km southwest of Valuyki).

▪️ In Kupyansk, reports say the Russian Armed Forces are storming high-rise buildings in the northern part of the city, as well as the city hospital. The blocks have been turned into a fortified area by the enemy. To the south, writes GRV “West,” our troops are trying to close a huge “bag” (16 km in diameter), heading towards Kurilovka. However, it is too early for victorious reports, and premature reports on the internet have never helped.

▪️ On the Pokrovsko-Myrnograd direction, the Russian Armed Forces continue the assault from Troyanda to the north, our DRGs operate to the west of Pokrovsk.

▪️ On the South-Donetsk direction, GRV “East” is storming Novoivanovka in the Zaporizhzhia region (south of the border junction with Dnipropetrovsk). There are successes near Berezove, the control zone is expanding near the recently liberated Novonikolaevka and Olhovske. The UAF made three counterattacks in the areas of Kalynovske and Berezove, but had no success.

▪️ On the Zaporozhye front, our forces are advancing on the southern outskirts of Prymorske, the control zone near Stepnohorsk has been expanded. On the Orikhov direction – positional battles. The UAF shelled the Vasylevka district; a woman died in an apartment building.

▪️ In the Kherson region, as a result of enemy shelling in Zavodivka, a 73-year-old man received shrapnel wounds. The enemy shelled a church in Brylivka, apartment buildings in Nova Kakhovka and Korobky, as well as Aleshky, Velyka Lepetykha, Hornostaivka, Kazachyi Lager, Kakhovka, Kairy, Knyaze-Hryhorovka, Mala Lepetykha, Nova Kakhovka, and Dnipryany. Our artillery and drones strike the southern part of Kherson. Any movement is considered military activity: no civilians remain.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/09/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_19.html