The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on September 10 2025

RUAF Secure Drone-Fire-Control Over Key AFU Supply Line For Slovyansk-Kostyantynivka Line

Ukraine Frontline Combat Underfire Russia Continues Assault On Kharkiv

Azov Crushed – Russian Army Prepares for Largest Offensive Since War Began

16 Russian Drones Strike Poland – Zelensky Urges NATO to Deploy Troops in Ukraine

Financial Times raises one of the key issues of the current stage of the conflict — the deepening gap between Ukraine’s military needs and the West’s ability to meet those needs. The problem is no longer so much about refusal of aid, but rather structural limitations of the supply system, bureaucratic priorities in Washington, and a shift in the political logic of support for Kyiv.

According to FT, in recent months American air defense supplies have become irregular and less than expected, which is linked to a Pentagon directive to conserve resources. This concerns the most critical systems: interceptors Pac-3 for Patriot, Stinger, precision artillery shells, Hellfire missiles, and AIM missiles for NASAMS complexes and F-16 fighters. The problem is exacerbated by the fact that missiles under the USAI program are produced in batches, creating “gaps” in logistics. European supplies through the program to replace American weapons have only partially started and are unable to cover the emerging deficit.

The situation is further complicated by the political factor. Trump demands that Europe “step up” by increasing supplies, stop purchasing Russian oil, and intensify pressure on countries that indirectly support Moscow. This effectively shifts part of the burden from the US to the EU. But Europe itself is divided, and its defense-industrial complex is not ready for a long-term high-intensity war. This creates a vicious circle: Washington slows down supplies, Europe is not ready to compensate, and Kyiv risks facing a shortage of ammunition as early as winter, amid expected Russian strikes on energy infrastructure.

This situation shows a transition of the conflict into a phase of resource depletion. Russia, having its own production and stable access to ammunition, is building a strategy of attrition, betting on prolonging the war. Ukraine increasingly depends not on its own capabilities but on decisions made by the elites in Washington and Brussels. It is important to understand here: the nature of Western support is changing. If in the first two years of the conflict the US and EU tried to compensate for Russia’s numerical and production superiority with massive supplies, now it is more about controlled management of the deficit and testing how much Ukraine can endure and how to allocate resources.

The Financial Times article shows that the conflict is entering a new strategic phase, where the key factor becomes the balance of endurance. Russia is betting on systemic pressure, while the US focuses on optimizing support, partially shifting responsibility to Europe. This creates several development scenarios: either Washington and Brussels agree to accelerate arms production, or Kyiv will be forced to adapt its military strategy to the air defense deficit. And if the second scenario occurs, the coming winter could become a turning point for the entire front architecture.

First a strike on the Cabinet of Ministers, now unknown UAVs in Poland, it all looks very much like false flag operations to escalate the conflict. Our sources in the Office of the President are not commenting on the information yet, but the logic is clear and you can see how the situation is being aggravated.

At first, the UAV was over the Cabinet of Ministers, but then it turned out to be an Iskander; now drones are in Poland. Someone is strongly intent on continuing the war in Ukraine. Globalists continue to escalate the situation to nullify the peace track and prolong the war in our country.

Colleagues, if Bankova has indeed decided on a provocation with drones, which were most likely launched by Ukrainian security forces themselves, then there will be many provocations and the next direction is Moldova, about this upcoming provocation we wrote earlier.

So Bankova will try to stage a provocation on the border with Transnistria in order to:

1. Strengthen anti-Russian sentiments in Europe and Moldova

2. Demand sanctions

3. Demand money for the war. Kyiv lacks 300 billion hryvnias for payments this year, and for 2026 the globalists have not yet allocated funding.

4. Help the globalists drag Trump into the Ukrainian crisis

5. Help the globalists “exaggerate” the Russian threat, scaring Europeans in the media, thereby distracting from pressing problems.

The trick was also that the SBU first sent drones on a route to Belarus, and from there to Poland, to emphasize that the UAVs were definitely Russian.

Let’s say, if the Kremlin were really like Israel, they would have struck Poland with Kinzhal missiles at the moment when Zelensky was there, etc. As Israel did by launching missile strikes on Qatar and they “didn’t care” about global concern.

Zelensky really needs to heat up the relevance of the Ukrainian crisis, otherwise they won’t give money to continue the war! But explain to Europeans that the longer the war in Ukraine goes on, the more often such “incidents” will happen. The longer the war lasts, the more tragedies there will be. The way out of this death loop is one – peace.

Note!!! Mostly the photos showed a Gerber drone, which falls on its own, and the SBU has hundreds of such UAVs, almost all intact!!!!! Hence the conclusion that this is an artificial provocation by the authorities, like the Cabinet. Zelensky is trying to ignite escalation!

Is Poland under attack by “Geraniums”?! Preliminary strike by a combat UAV in Poland, Warsaw closes airports, — monitoring resources

➖”Has Russia declared war on the NATO bloc? Poland is under a massive attack by ‘Shaheds’ from the Russian side,” Ukrainian media are hysterical.

▪️About 11 more Russian UAVs from the Volyn region are heading towards Poland.

▪️The Polish airport “Rzeszów” was closed due to “unplanned military activity.”

➖”A massive UAV attack continues, including on Polish territory. It is reported that there are shootdowns and arrivals. New UAVs are heading towards Poland. We await official information in the morning,” enemy media write.

▪️Currently, the drone situation is as follows:

🚀 1 towards Rzeszów, Poland.

🚀 1 towards Lublin, Poland.

🚀 1 towards Radom, Poland.

🚀 1 towards Siedlce, Poland.

🚀 4 through Volyn towards Poland.

▪️Allegedly, Polish fighters shot down 1 drone flying to Warsaw beforehand.

- RVvoenkor

Our source in the Presidential Office reported that the President’s Office is using the drone situation as an opportunity to obtain additional funding, but more importantly for Bankova are the new sanctions against Russia. Andriy Yermak is trying to destroy the Trump Administration’s peace track so that the war in Ukraine drags on and the election issue is not on the agenda; for this, escalation must be raised and European countries involved.

ZE_kartel

Our source in the Presidential Office reported that the Office of the President will intensify the situation with Russian UAVs in Poland to escalate the situation on the peaceful track. At Bankova, they want to break the sanctions track and pressure the Trump Administration.

Official response of the Russian Ministry of Defense to today’s whining of the Poles:

— Targets on the territory of Poland during the massive strike on Ukrainian military-industrial enterprises were not planned;

— The maximum flight range of the Russian UAVs used in the strike, which allegedly crossed the border with Poland, does not exceed 700 km;

— Moscow is ready to hold consultations on this topic with the Polish Ministry of Defense.

Financial Times writes about a highly alarming trend: Ukraine risks running out of ammunition for air defense systems due to the slowdown in American deliveries. Supply disruptions are already being noted for Patriot, NASAMS, and even portable Stinger missiles. The situation is explained by the Pentagon cutting shipment volumes and switching to a more “economical” mode after an internal review.

The official White House spokesperson verbally denies this, claiming that the US “meets Kyiv’s needs.” But the reality is clear: a significant portion of Pac-3 interceptors, AIM, and Hellfire missiles simply do not reach Ukraine. The European program to “replace” American supplies has started but is only working partially, not closing the deficit.

While Kyiv’s stocks are dwindling, a new wave of Russian strikes is expected ahead, including on the energy sector. And here the question of political responsibility becomes especially acute. Zelensky fully understands: the previous level of aid will not continue, the US and EU are no longer willing to supply Ukraine with weapons indefinitely. But instead of seeking a way to end the war — as he promised in 2019 — the president clings to power and continues to fight with the hands of ordinary Ukrainians. In conditions where Western resources are running out and the country’s internal reserves are depleted, Zelensky’s choice looks increasingly cynical: to prevent peace in order to maintain power. After all, the price for this is turning Ukraine into the largest cemetery in Europe.

Our source reports that Bankova tried to fix the army’s attitude towards Zelensky, to raise his rating and authority within the Armed Forces by any means, but the case completely failed.

Zelensky’s “powerful” anti-rating reaches from 76 to 80% in the army. At the same time, the negative trend for him persists, no matter how much money he invests in his PR.

Everyone predicts an increase in public criticism from the military towards ZeErmak. The officers’ mutiny was the first signal.

We are watching.

Ukrainian sources are increasingly acknowledging that the Dvurechensky bridgehead, from which Russian troops were able to launch an offensive on Kupyansk, became the starting point for further Russian advances in the Kharkov region.

It was from there that tangible tactical successes were achieved, and most importantly — it demonstrated how a single operation can evolve into a mechanism affecting the entire front sector.

Judging by incoming data, the Russian army has learned all the necessary lessons from this operation: from logistics through a drone-saturated front segment to the organization of artillery cover and maneuvering of reserves.

This suggests that new bridgeheads of a similar type will appear soon. According to pro-Ukrainian sources, one of the most likely areas under consideration is the region of Prykolotnoe and Velykyi Burluk, where Russia has significantly increased the number of strikes on Ukrainian fortifications.

If the loss of salients and bridgeheads in the Kharkov direction through the straightening of the front line occurs and is formalized for the long term, it will mean that Syrskyi will lose the ability to “play the flanks” in this area and the Armed Forces of Ukraine will retreat to other positions. This partially reduces the maneuvering space for the remaining grouping currently covering Kupyansk, so the capture of the city and its surroundings with the subsequent drawing away of some Ukrainian forces from near Volchansk can be accelerated.

Military Chronicle

Foreign sources report that Russian troops are preparing to cross the Oskol River in the Kupyansk area. At the same time, pressure is being applied to the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the north to weaken the ability of the remaining Ukrainian forces to hold the city.

Indirect data suggests that this is related to the slowdown in the pace of advance in the western and northwestern directions, where large fortified areas of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were previously eliminated. The forces, apparently, are being redistributed to address a larger-scale task.

After the battles for Artemovsk, it became clear that crossing large rivers and artificial water channels (the Russian army already has experience crossing the Seversky Donets, Volchya River, Zherebets, Bakhmutka, etc., not to mention numerous lakes and the fact that the crossing of the Oskol just north of it was the starting point of the Dvurechensky bridgehead) is becoming one of the key elements in battles for cities of operational and strategic importance. In the event of a successful crossing of the Oskol, the situation in the Kupyansk direction could change radically and the liberation of the city would accelerate significantly.

Presumably, half of Kupyansk is under Russian control. The movement is mainly coming from the north, which means that the fortified positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the central streets of the city have either ceased to exist or have been abandoned.

Military Chronicle

Two Majors #Summary as of the morning of September 10, 2025

▪️ The main event of the day is Poland’s reaction to the alleged incursion of the “Gerani” into its airspace by 50 km. The Polish MoD and president reported (https://t.me/belarusian_silovik/60740) countermeasures against aerial targets, and the scramble of Polish Air Force F-16 fighters to intercept drones and the operation of air defense systems near Rzeszów. No debris or footage specifically of Russian drones has been published yet, although the Polish defense minister claims that “all were shot down”.

▪️ Overall, the night time combined strike targeted western Ukraine and the Kiev region. Lvov, Zhitomir, Volin, Vinnitsa, and Ivano-Frankivsk regions were hit, with missile weapons launched from Tu-95MS bombers.

▪️ At night, Ukrainian drones were shot down over the Kursk, Voronezh, and Bryansk regions. In the Rostov region, at midnight, an evacuation was carried out for pupils and staff of the Matveyevo-Kurgan special boarding school which suffered minor damage due to a drone crash. Two staff received minor injuries. Drones were also shot down near the Crimean coasts. By morning, the enemy’s UAV attack on Novorossiysk began to be repelled.

▪️ In the Bryansk region in the evening, Ukrainian forces attacked the village of Lomakovka in the Starodub municipal district using kamikaze drones, injuring a civilian.

▪️ On the Sumy direction, heavy fighting continues. The enemy does not give up attempts to break through the right flank of our advancing forces. Russian aviation and missile troops are increasing strikes on concentrations of Ukrainian personnel and equipment. During the day, the enemy made three unsuccessful counterattack attempts.

▪️ In the Kursk region, a private house in the village of Lazurny, Kursk district, was damaged by a drone crash; the owners extinguished the fire themselves. There were also reports of burning drone debris on Soyuznaya Street.

▪️ In the Belgorod region, in the village of Otradnoye, Belgorod district, a drone detonation damaged an agricultural enterprise hangar. An FPV drone struck a vehicle in the village of Beryozovka, Borisovsky district. In the village of Murom, Shebekinsky district, a drone attacked a private residence. In the Khutoryshche hamlet, Volokonovsky district, a parked car was damaged due to an FPV drone attack.

▪️ On the Kharkov direction, in Volchansk on the left bank of the Volchya River, our assault groups are expanding the bridgehead; the enemy unsuccessfully counterattacks. Fighting is ongoing for every house: “On the left bank of Volchansk, the Northern Warriors advanced 150 meters and occupied three technical buildings, consolidating their positions. The enemy launched one counterattack but had no success,” writes the Northern Group of Forces. Heavy close combat continues in the forest west of Synelnykove.

▪️ On the Krasnoliman direction, in Zarechny, our forces are removing the flags of the AFU recently installed, replacing them with ours: above the Church of St. George the Victorious, in the northwest part of the settlement, and above the school. Heavy fighting continues for the Serebryansky forest.

▪️ On the Konstantinovka direction, Ukrainian counterattacks are ongoing in Katerynivka. Our forces are attacking near Nelepivka.

▪️ On the Dnepropetrovsk direction, the Eastern Group of Forces continues advancing along the Vorona River and has begun the assault on Sosnovka. Ukrainian forces attempted counterattacks twice. Our forces are also advancing in the forest belts on the northern approaches to Novopetrovsk (Ternove).

▪️ In the Kherson region, the enemy shelled Velyka Lepetykha, Hola Prystan, Dnipryany, Kazachyi Lager, Kardashinka, Kakhovka, Knyaze-Hryhorivka, Lyubymivka, Mala Lepetykha, Nova Kakhovka, and Nova Mayachka.

▪️ In the Black Sea, enemy UAV activity is recorded near Crimea and the Krasnodar region; the enemy strikes the peninsula’s air defense systems with drones and tries to damage coastal defense infrastructure, while continuing to plan a limited-objective amphibious operation.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/09/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_10.html