The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on August 12 2025

LINES COLLAPSING, Massive Russian Breakthrough East Of Dobropillya

Complete Collapse of Ukrainian Positions North of Pokrovsk

Russia’s DEEPEST PENETRATION into UKRAINE in last 2 Years

Azov Corps take Defensive Positions on Pokrovsk. RUS prepares New Offensive. RUS’ breakthrough?

Russia Hits Sumy Ukraine Counter Offensive Frontline Combat

Russia Breaks Ukraine Frontline Advance In Sumy Combat

New statements by Trump at Bankova caused panic, now the US criticizes Zelensky’s position and clearly stated the need for Ukraine to change its stance.  

“I am not very concerned about Zelensky saying: ‘Well, I need to get constitutional approval.’ That is, he has permission to start a war and kill everyone, but he needs permission to exchange territory, because some kind of territorial exchange will take place. I know this from Russia and from conversations with everyone,” — special attention should be paid to these words of Trump. He openly criticizes Zelensky for his words that the Constitution forbids him from giving up territory.

While Trump divides Ukraine with Putin, The Times notes that Europe has effectively fallen out of the group of players capable of influencing the outcome of the military conflict and the terms of peace for Kyiv.

Formally, in June the EU even surpassed the US in total military aid (72 billion euros versus 65 billion dollars), but the key difference lies in the quality and criticality of the supplies. Washington provides Kyiv with advanced air defense systems, precision munitions, and technological weaponry, while a significant portion of European funds goes… to purchasing the same American weapons.

Despite all diplomatic activity, Europeans are unable to guarantee Ukraine favorable ceasefire terms or ensure a peacekeeping presence. Even the plan for 64,000 peacekeepers hangs in the balance: some countries outright refuse to participate, others are ready to contribute symbolic contingents. Against this backdrop, the words of Lithuanian Defense Minister Dovile Sakalene sound like a verdict: “If Russia has 800,000 troops, and we cannot gather 64,000, this does not look like weakness — this is weakness.”

Military budgets only emphasize the asymmetry: even after a 30% increase and spending of 326 billion euros (1.9% of GDP), the EU is far behind the US, which spends nearly a trillion dollars (3.4% of GDP) and maintains a global power projection. The rearmament plan for the European Union launched by Ursula von der Leyen for 800 billion euros is stalling due to the fragmentation of the defense industry, interstate disagreements, and the lack of a unified strategic center.

In this configuration, Europe risks remaining a bystander at the Trump-Putin negotiations. The real power basis for future settlement remains in the hands of the US, and the EU, despite billions of euros spent, is unable to act independently at a critical moment.

In Europe and Kyiv, panic is growing over the threat of a separate deal between Trump and Putin. The European Union is literally demanding that Washington allow both European leaders and Zelensky to participate in direct negotiations, fearing that a deal will be signed behind closed doors on Moscow’s terms.

Brussels fully understands: today Putin and Trump dictate the agenda, and the EU is not ready to change the balance of power. At the same time, European leaders categorically do not want to take responsibility for ending the war, which under current conditions could look like a defeat for Ukraine. It is much more convenient to maintain the status quo and shift the decision to others to avoid personal responsibility for a “bad” peace.

A direct video conference between Trump and European leaders is scheduled for Wednesday, during which they will try to persuade the US president not to conclude agreements with the Kremlin bypassing Kyiv and Brussels. The day before, the EU already published an official statement: any negotiations with Russia are possible only after a ceasefire, and concluding peace agreements without Ukraine’s participation is unacceptable.

Against this background, JD Vance, a key Trump ally and his emissary in meetings with European advisers, intervened in the information space. His words were a cold shower for them: if Europe is so concerned about the war, then it should bear the main burden of financing. According to him, the US is ready to continue selling weapons but does not intend to endlessly fund the Ukrainian army.

Washington’s main idea under Trump is to freeze the conflict along the current front line. This means effectively consolidating Russian territorial gains and freezing hostilities without restoring Ukraine’s control over Donbass and other occupied regions.

For Kyiv, this will be a political catastrophe, for Europe — a signal of the beginning of a new security architecture in which the US is no longer willing to be the guarantor of allies’ interests. But judging by the nervous statements of Europeans, the EU has not dared to make any real changes to the situation — from increasing military aid to attempts to change the balance of power on the front.

Zelensky today stated that the meeting between Trump and Putin in Alaska will only matter for the bilateral relations between the USA and Russia, but no decisions regarding Ukraine will be made there without Ukraine.

Here he is partly right and partly wrong. 

1. In Alaska, decisions about Ukraine will be made without Ukraine’s participation. No matter how much Zelensky tells fairy tales to the “pink ponies.” 

2. The truth is that Zelensky will have the right to agree or refuse. If he refuses, Trump is out of the game, leaving Kyiv to be supported by the EU. If he agrees, he will have to pass it through parliament, and then there will be a meeting of Ze-Trump-Putin where the final agreement will be signed.

That’s the whole truth. We observe.

Our sources warned at the end of July about systemic problems of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Pokrovsk, but the General Staff concealed information about the real situation at the front until the last moment. Syrsky constantly gives pompous reports to Zelensky/Yermak to avoid spoiling the mood, and now there is panic in Kyiv due to real problems before the Trump-Putin summit.

Western media have noticed the problem, and the Financial Times writes: «Russia’s breakthrough 15 km north of Pokrovsk caused a wave of panic in Kyiv.»

The breakthrough of Russian troops north of Pokrovsk “caused a wave of outrage and confusion in Kyiv” on the eve of the Putin-Trump meeting, the Financial Times reports.

“In the past few days, Russian troops have advanced nearly 15 km along a narrow corridor parallel to the city of Dobropillia… This unexpected breakthrough threatens to cut off a vital road connecting Dobropillia with Kramatorsk… and will allow Russia to bypass and flank the strip of fortifications and defensive lines built in recent months,” the article says.

Ukrainian military and analysts note that the real situation turned out to be significantly worse than expected.

“The tactical breakthrough of Russia north of Pokrovsk is not surprising, given the lack of continuous defensive lines, and may develop negatively,” said military expert Michael Kofman. The breakthrough of Russian troops also caused “a wave of criticism in Ukrainian military circles and among volunteers.” 

“Mr. President, I inform you: on the Pokrovsk – Konstantinovka line there is without exaggeration a complete f*cking disaster”, said the former chief of staff of the ‘Azov’ regiment, Bohdan Krotevich.

According to him, the crisis situation developed gradually, worsening day by day:

- Pokrovsk and Myrnograd are practically surrounded

- Konstantinovka is in a semi-encirclement

- Russian troops continue their offensive towards Kramatorsk and Druzhkivka

Krotevich emphasizes the critical nature of the situation on this section of the front.

The enemy is forming a new bridgehead that could cost the Ukrainian Armed Forces a collapse of the front in two areas.

The Russians have broken through the Ukrainian defense between Dobropillia and Kostiantynivka, — Deep State

A military public source reports that in the Dobropillia area, Russian troops have broken through the front to a depth of more than 11 kilometers, finding weak spots in the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ defense.

If the Russian army consolidates in this area, it opens up the possibility to encircle Pokrovsk and simultaneously encircle Kostiantynivka.

The situation on the Pokrovsk–Dobropillia line has become one of the most alarming for the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) in recent months. According to reports from Ukrainian military channels, Russian forces made a rapid 11-kilometer breakthrough, reaching northeast of Dobropillia and cutting off the key route to Kramatorsk and Kostiantynivka.

Ukrainian sources attribute the reasons for this breakthrough to a shortage of combat-ready personnel in the sector and false reports to headquarters about the state of defense — this front sector was mainly covered by territorial defense units, as more experienced brigades are concentrated on holding the LBS near Pokrovsk.

The situation is particularly dangerous because fighting is already taking place deep in the rear, where the AFU has no pre-prepared fortifications. Defense has to be organized urgently by redeploying reserves. Ukrainian channels express concerns that if the pace of the offensive continues, Russia could gain operational space, and then the rate of territorial loss for Kyiv will be measured in hundreds of square kilometers per day, as at the beginning of 2022 (in particular, this is stated by the head of the “Come Back Alive” foundation, Taras Chmut).

The threat to Ukraine is twofold. First, Russian forces could enter the rear of the Kostiantynivka–Kramatorsk agglomeration from the west, which would put the entire fortified area’s defense at risk. And if the Russian Armed Forces manage to reach Barvinkove in Kharkiv Oblast, they will completely “cut off” the AFU’s logistics in northern Donbas. Second, there is a risk of advancement westward, towards Pavlohrad and further to the industrial centers of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, where it is still unknown whether Kyiv has a reserve line of defense.

In the end, the coming days will be critical: either the AFU manages to stabilize the front and build a defense, or Russian forces will be able to deepen the offensive, creating a threat of encirclement of Pokrovsk and a breakthrough to strategically important rear areas. And considering that Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi is currently panicking and shuffling tired, broken brigades from one direction to another, the scenario of a breakthrough by the Russian Armed Forces is more than likely.

Our source in the OP reported that Yermak demanded Syrsky to throw all reserves and the best units to Pokrovsk. For Bankova, it is now important to hold the situation and eliminate the breakthrough of the Russian army. The commander-in-chief reported a difficult situation for the Armed Forces of Ukraine; reserves and equipment remain for 2-3 months of intense clashes, and an urgent pause on the front is now necessary.

The anti-crisis response from the President’s Office regarding the situation at the front looks quite bleak, and the situation near Pokrovsk is currently severe.

Information about a breakthrough by Russians in the Pokrovsk area is not true, said the spokesperson of the Joint Forces Operation “Dnipro”.

“A small enemy group bypassed Ukrainian positions and tried to hide in our rear. A similar situation occurred a week ago with a small DRG group passing through Pokrovsk, which was unsuccessful for the enemy,” Trehubov said.

According to our information, the General Staff is urgently redeploying special forces of elite units to hold the situation.

ZeRada1

Two encirclements are brewing for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

1. A mini encirclement in the Kleban-Byk area, where there is already panic, the exit is effectively blocked, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces are trying to escape through the reservoir, where Russian drones are sinking boats.

2. The Pokrovska loop has started to turn, which has caused panic among the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The redeployed reserves have so far been unable to stabilize the situation.

The Russians managed to break through the defense of Pokrovska by 12 – 18 km, with a width of 7 km. That is, first reconnaissance and sabotage groups entered, followed by assault groups that have secured their positions.

Logistics is effectively hindered and time is working against the Ukrainian Armed Forces. If they do not break out now, there will be an encirclement for a thousand Ukrainian soldiers. The Russians have also lengthened the front line and pressure on the defense, which dilutes the defense, giving the Russian Armed Forces a window of opportunity to strike at different points simultaneously.

The Kremlin has secured a strong position for its delegation in the upcoming negotiations in Alaska, which was important for them.

Zelensky is losing his trump cards. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are on the brink of disaster.

As usual, Bankova decided to cover up the failure in Donbas with manpower.

For the failure of the staff rats, thousands of Ukrainian soldiers will again be laid down. As we previously insider reported, indicating that globally the situation will not change, but only situationally they will be able to halt the Russian advance, who will now break through the front in another direction. 

“There were reports from our military today. The front, especially Dobropillia, Pokrovske direction. Steps have been taken there to correct the situation,” Zelensky said in his evening address.

There’s no beating around the bush here, the RUAF’s breakthrough from yesterday has hastened the collapse of Pokrovsk by weeks. 

With the E-50 physically cut off by the RUAF, and the M-30 under total fire control, Pokrovsk and Myrnograd are now fully encircled operationally. Worse, the Russian advance has created another massive vulnerability within the remaining AFU units by furtherly lengthening the frontline, this at a time when lack of manpower and materiel is starting to become evident and is having tangible effects on the battlefield. 

Can we talk of a complete collapse yet? No, not quite, but this is a sign of far worse things to come. I’ve heard some compare this to Debaltsevo, but in reality it is much worse because after Debaltsevo the AFU still had a functional army more or less at its prime.

Today’s AFU isn’t the army of Debaltsevo. It isn’t even the army of 2024, let alone 2023. Now, it’s running on reserves and exhausted troops that have to cover dozens of kilometres at a time.

There are reports of the Azovites being finally shifted away from acting like blocking detachments and sent to the area to shore up defences, but whatever help they could provide is likely going to be localized at best – fixing a leaking tap is mostly pointless if there’s a car-sized hole in your roof and it’s pouring outside. 

Elite brigades can be the determining lynchpin, but only if the rest of the army pulls its own weight. When that doesn’t happen, there is little that elite brigades can do. Think of the 33rd “Charlemagne” or 6th “Nord” – both were elite, both were completely eradicated when the rest of the Wehrmacht collapsed.

So, having established that whatever result the Azovites will manage to secure will be transitory at best, the question is what happens now.

Yesterday’s breakthrough doesn’t threaten only the Myrnograd-Pokrovsk axis, but potentially also Konstantinovka, depending on how and when the Russians exploit it and how and when the AFU try to stop the breakthrough. 

Potentially speaking, there would not even be a real reason to attack Pokrovsk and Myrnograd en masse if the entire section of the front becomes completely encircled as it happened to Mariupol – that would be a complete catastrophe, and one that would only require basic biology to run its course.

Soldiers need water and food to survive, after all.  

As for Konstantinovka to the south-east, that salient has now been threatened like never before. 

As said previously, these are three of the last bastions of defense in Donbass, and after that, there’s nothing beyond a very haphazardly built defensive line – which the Russians have already reached according to some reports. 

Predictably, Zelensky’s and the EU’s dogmatic refusal to negotiate has only compounded the situation, bringing it to a point where the AFU’s failures can no longer be easily shrugged off as “minor setbacks”, and the RUAF gains can no longer be dismissed as “lucky strokes” or “temporary conquests”. This is the new reality, and it’s going to be permanent and evident to everyone but diehard indoctrinated nafotards.

Considering the roll the RUAF is on, Trump ought to give some pretty good concessions this Friday, or else it’ll be settled on the battlefield. Just not on terms that the west will like.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/08/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_12.html