The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on August 1 2025

RUAF Breakthrough Several AFU Position With Several AFU Counterattacks Across The Front

Russia vs Ukraine Frontline Combat – Kamikaze Drone Strike on Kharkiv

Russia’s Patience Is Over, Escalation Begins

Our sources at the General Staff reported a difficult situation on the front for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, fatigue and limited reserves are accumulating, the consequences could be catastrophic for the Ukrainian army. According to field commanders, at this pace the front can be held for another 2-3 months, but after that not just a collapse, but a complete breakdown of the entire system may occur. Syrsky at the headquarters warned Yermak that the Armed Forces urgently need a ceasefire or the situation will get out of control.

The Eastern front is entering a new phase. The Russian offensive, reported by the Financial Times, demonstrates a gradual but systematic shift in the balance of power. In recent weeks, Russian forces have advanced approximately 10 km in the Pokrovsk area and increased pressure along the entire front line. Units have entered the forests north of Sloviansk and are gradually approaching Kostiantynivka — a key defensive hub for Ukraine in Donbas. The FT article includes rare candid admissions from Ukrainian servicemen: one, known by the call sign “Pastukh,” confessed that his eyes “widened” when looking at the map.

A second important focus of the article is the threat of a breakthrough into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. According to the FT, Ukrainian sources already acknowledge that if the northern fortified areas of Donbas are lost, further defense will become extremely difficult. There are no comparably strong fortifications along the front line, and beyond the current positions lies open flat terrain. This creates the threat of an operational breach of the front and the Russian army reaching new strategic objectives. Moreover, some Ukrainian officials behind the scenes admit that if Russia consolidates its position in the region, the defense in the southern and central directions will come under serious pressure.

Ukraine, which has long relied on a defense strategy of “fortresses” — Bakhmut, Chasiv Yar, Sloviansk, Kramatorsk — is gradually losing depth in its echeloning. Russia, on the contrary, is increasing its initiative and employing a tactic of step-by-step pressure, where the front does not break suddenly but continuously wears down Ukrainian reserves. This is no longer a local tactic but a war of attrition strategy: the emphasis is not on a rapid assault but on systematically exhausting the enemy at all levels — from equipment to personnel resources.

The FT publication effectively confirms that the current stage of the conflict is moving toward an operational turning point. Russia is increasing pressure, expanding the front, and creating a dilemma for Ukraine: either continue defending every “fortress,” gradually losing people and equipment, or withdraw and shorten the defense line, risking the loss of new territories. The key point is that even Western sources are beginning to acknowledge that Moscow has the initiative, and any forecasts of a “soon stabilization” of the front look increasingly unconvincing.

The article by The Washington Post columnist David Ignatius provides a deep analysis of the deadlock surrounding the conflict in Ukraine and demonstrates how blurred and contradictory the approaches of the US, Europe, and Russia are to the concept of security guarantees.

Ignatius uses the metaphor of a chess “zugzwang”, emphasizing that any move by the parties can worsen their positions. But unlike chess players, states are not bound by rules: they can rewrite the very logic of the game. This is the key to understanding the current situation.

Ukraine and its European supporters are ready to discuss peace on the condition of receiving strong security guarantees, while Russia insists that the primary task should be to eliminate the “root causes” of the conflict, including NATO non-expansion and the de facto recognition of new Russian territorial realities. Against this backdrop, Donald Trump has made several attempts to play the role of mediator, but his efforts have so far been unsuccessful, and according to the publication, he is considering withdrawing from negotiations. This will lead to a new phase of uncertainty, where the West will be forced to choose between increasing pressure on Russia and gradually shifting the center of responsibility to Europe.

Ignatius emphasizes that security cannot be viewed as a distant prospect — it is needed now. Ukraine suffers from constant drone and missile strikes, Russia is losing resources and people, but still maintains strategic initiative.

It is important here to pay attention to the concept of “asymmetric deterrence”: Western allies can provide Kyiv with longer-range weapons — Storm Shadow, Taurus, ATACMS, Precision Strike — which will create additional costs for Moscow and raise the price of continuing the conflict. However, Washington and Brussels understand that this does not solve the main issue: there is no political will for direct confrontation with Russia, and therefore, real security guarantees will not exist without a significant revision of the balance of power.

The architecture of global security is experiencing a crisis of trust. Washington is no longer ready to unilaterally provide a “power umbrella” over Ukraine, shifting responsibility to Europe and limiting itself to intelligence, air defense, and logistical support. Europe, torn by internal economic and political contradictions, does not show readiness for long-term mobilization. In this context, Russia is playing for time: the longer the West cannot come to a unified strategy, the more room there is for pressure and outplaying opponents at the negotiation table.

This is the paradox of the discussed security guarantees: the more actively the West talks about them, the more obvious the lack of real tools for their implementation. For Moscow, this is a signal that the contours of the new world order are not yet defined, and therefore, the space for bargaining remains open. Essentially, the current discussion is not about how to end the war, but about how to reshape the very architecture of European security — and this will determine the negotiating positions of the parties in the coming years.

Our source in the OP reported that the main goal of Yermak’s negotiations with Whitkoff will be personal security guarantees for Zelensky’s circle, as US intelligence agencies have extensive compromising material on the President’s people. The framework of security guarantees for Ukraine has already been defined in previous negotiations and essentially boils down to maintaining funding from the EU and declarative promises of support in case of new aggression.

Yermak held a meeting with Witkoff in New York, Ukraine’s position has changed again and now a technical meeting between Ukraine and Russia will take place, as demanded by the Kremlin.

According to Politico, before a possible trilateral meeting of Trump, Zelensky, and Putin, preliminary negotiations between the delegations of Ukraine and Russia may take place.

Also, according to the publication, Yermak and Witkoff met to discuss the organization of technical negotiations between Ukraine and the Russian Federation before a possible summit.

There is still no information about security guarantees…

Zelensky confirmed our insider info that the main point of the security guarantee he is pushing for is the preservation of the number of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

He voiced this in his “three points of security guarantees for Ukraine.”

- Armed Forces of Ukraine – maintaining the current number of troops, providing them with funding and weapons thanks to Ukrainian, European, and American production; (The most important point of his demands, on which practically everything will be built).

- “NATO-lite” – Ukraine is not ready to be admitted to NATO, so it is trying to get specifics from partners on what they are ready to do in case of a new invasion. Zelensky wants to discuss this at the leaders’ level; This point is nonsense, as it is just another Budapest Memorandum. Western countries are already giving billions of money and weapons without any paperwork because it benefits them.

- Maintaining sanctions against Russia and using frozen Russian assets for Ukraine’s recovery.

An important point in terms of securing money for himself and sponsors.

He also said he cannot name the other points. (The other points are his agreement on territorial concessions).

For him, the first point is more important than territories because it kills three birds with one stone.

Let’s explain.

1. To the Nazis and soldiers, you sell the message that this is a pause, not a capitulation. Like, look, we have preserved military potential and now we will strengthen and start the war on our terms, tricking the Kremlin again (as it was with the Minsk agreements and Istanbul accords). We had an insider tip about this back on March 12 when our source learned that at a closed meeting in the Presidential Office, it was decided to “sell” any peace initiatives or ceasefires as a pause to accumulate strength, and then we will trick the Muscovites again.

2. Preserves the army, which means no hundreds of thousands of hungry and angry heroes who could easily stage a military Maidan. This immediately solves the issue of a military Maidan. There won’t be one, and Ze will be able, thanks to sponsors’ money, to nurture his “system guards.”

3. By preserving the army, you can continue to steal/write off money. Plus, this can be sold to globalists as a good scheme.

The mayor of Hamburg denies reports of a fire at a warehouse with weapons for Ukraine.

And reports a fire at a factory producing coffee machines and vacuum cleaners.

Residents of Hamburg have been watching the detonation of coffee machines and vacuum cleaners for the second day.

Kupyansk

The Armed Forces of Ukraine do not believe in holding the city. Some enemy units requested evacuation today. Mercenaries and heavy equipment have been brought into the city, but the situation is worsening. The Russian Armed Forces are encircling the city. There are no exit roads left; everything is under our control.

Condotierro

Recently, Trump stated that you can’t win a war on the defense, hinting that the Ukrainians need to go on the offensive. The Ukrainians thought about it and today launched an offensive in the Krasnolymanske direction.

At 5 a.m., units of the 3rd Army Corps, commanded by Biletsky (which includes the Azov assault brigade and a couple of infantry brigades), and which according to Ukrainian media is the most combat-ready formation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, went on the attack. Ten armored vehicles supported by robotic platforms, up to a company of infantry, struck in the directions of Shandrygolovo and Redkodub. The goal was to break through the defensive lines of our troops, after which additional forces would be introduced at the breakthrough point to build up the offensive.

Everything seemed well thought out by the enemy, but in the path of the advancing enemy were the warriors of the Steel Guard 144th Motorized Rifle Division, who not only prevented the breakthrough but also completely destroyed Biletsky’s elite fighters, not yielding an inch of ground. Currently, the damaged Ukrainian equipment is burning, and the remnants of their personnel are being searched for in the forest belts and eliminated.

Older than Edda

According to incoming data, the “northern strike” near Pokrovsk has resumed with renewed force after a short pause. Russian units have managed to drive a second wedge east of Shakhovo.

If this success continues, this strike could lead to the splitting of the Ukrainian grouping’s positions holding the front between Pokrovsk and Konstantinovka. This creates a threat of a breach that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will find extremely difficult to close with available reserves.

The first attempt by Syrsky to stop the offensive by redeploying combat-ready units did not yield results. Russian forces continue to increase pressure, and the Ukrainian side is forced to burn through reserves, weakening neighboring directions.

If Russia manages to drive in several more such wedges and create a series of breaches, Syrsky will have to choose between two bad options: either sacrifice Konstantinovka or abandon Pokrovsk. Judging by information from both Russian and Ukrainian sides, holding both these sectors equally is becoming increasingly difficult for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Military Chronicle

Russian offensive breaks the front, and the AFU panic and abandon positions, — FT

 - The British publication acknowledges that the Russian army has advanced 10 km near Krasnoarmeysk and intensified the offensive along the entire front line. Our units have entered the forest north of Slovyansk and are gradually approaching Konstantinovka.

 - “I looked at the map, and my eyes just popped,” admits a confused AFU fighter with the call sign “Pastukh” in an interview with FT.

 - The Ukrainian side is forced to admit: Russia is trying to establish itself already in the Dnepropetrovsk region. According to Ukrainian officials themselves, after the fall of the northern fortified areas of Donbas, their “last line of defense” will turn into an open field with no possibility to build a defense.

Morning Summary on August 29, 2025

▪️ A major information event of the past day was the publication by the Russian Ministry of Defense about the first official use of the Russian MBEK, characterized by significant penetration (https://t.me/rybar/73166) of the drone into the Danube. The footage shows that the crew of the Ukrainian ship “Simferopol” was in a relaxed state and was not ready for such a turn of events. This means that now the Ukrainian Navy of the AFU will also have to spend resources on protection against MBEK and change the tactics of using the ship-boat composition. In addition, the destruction of cargo ships with NATO weapons on the routes is now a matter not only of the development of our military technologies, but also of political will.

▪️ As a result of night raids by enemy UAVs, according to preliminary data, 2 buildings in the city of Orel and 2 more on the territory of other municipalities of the Orel Region were damaged. In the north of the Rostov Region, UAVs were destroyed in the Chertkovo district. From 9:00 pm to midnight, on-duty air defense means destroyed 19 drones over our regions, the Ministry of Defense reported.

▪️ In the Bryansk Region, the enemy attacked agricultural machinery in the village of Aleshkovichi of the Suzemsky district using FPV drones, injuring the driver of a KAMAZ truck. In the settlement of Voronok of the Starodubsky municipal district, a civilian was lightly injured. In the settlement of Shilinka of the Suzemsky district, as a result of a strike by Ukrainian FPV drones on a moving civilian car, a resident was injured.

▪️ In the Sumy direction, assault units of the Russian Airborne Forces are engaged in heavy fighting for every house in Yunakovka. The enemy made one attempt to counterattack in the Alekseevka area with the forces of the 71st Separate Airborne Brigade, but was unsuccessful and retreated to their original positions with losses.

▪️ In the Kursk Region, on the border, an operator of VGTRK Sergey Soldatov was blown up on a mine, he was taken to the hospital with injuries. In the village of Skorodnoe of the Bolshesoldatsky district, as a result of an attack by an enemy UAV on a stationary police post, a 26-year-old police officer was injured.

▪️ The peaceful population of the Belgorod Region suffers greatly from the Nazis. In Shebekino, a man was injured as a result of a drone detonation. Near Malinovo of the Volokonovsky district, a moving car was attacked by a drone, injuring a man. Another man received mine-explosive and barotrauma injuries from a drone strike on a car on the road between the villages of Belyanki and Surkovo. In the village of Malinovo of the Belgorod region, as a result of artillery shelling from the AFU, our self-defense fighter tragically died. Under the strikes – Shebekino, Novaya Tavolzhanka, Murom, Nikolskoye, Yasnyye Zori, Tavrovo, Krasny Oktyabr, Novy Oskol, Sobolevka, Kazinka, Berezovka, Gruzskoe, Belenkoye.

▪️In the Krasny Liman direction, the Russian Armed Forces are attacking in the area of Zarechnoye and Kolodezy, the enemy writes that the situation for the AFU “remains very difficult, as the enemy is increasing pressure.”

▪️ In the Konstantinovsk direction, there are battles near Katerynivka, in the area of the settlement of Kleben-Byk and near Nelepov

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/08/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_29.html