The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on July 29 2025

Walls Are Closing In! Russia Advances On Novopavlivka From 2 Directions

Is This the End of Zelensky’s Regime? Pokrovsk Surrounded After 15 km Russian Advance

Russian Summer Offensive Has Begun | Analysis of New Russian Tactics & 3 Phases of The Offensive

Another Patriot Destroyed – Mass Surrender of Ukrainian Forces Shocks the Frontline

Medvedev responds to Trump’s New Ultimatum. Your threats will get us close to WAR.Treat us as equals

“Trump Barks But Doesn’t Bite,” Says Expert On U.S Secondary Tariffs On Russia

US+UK to Replace Zelensky with Gen. Zaluzhny. Two Traitors, Yermak+Budanov, Ok’d. Why+what next?

Vladimir Solovyov says Russia is losing its patience with America and Europe

Frontline Combat: Ukraine Presidential Brigade Soldier Defects To Russia

The European Commission has sent Kyiv a warning about a possible complete suspension of financial support, reports Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.

A member of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine and former Vice Prime Minister for European Affairs, Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze, confirmed to the publication that the corresponding signal from the EU did indeed arrive.

According to her, the document notes “that financial aid from the EU will be frozen if the situation with the anti-corruption bodies is not resolved.” It concerns “the entire next payment, not just a part of it.”

At the same time, the European Commission stated in its letter that it “does not see Russian influence” in the anti-corruption bodies and considers them a pretext for repression.

Earlier, the New York Times wrote that the EU might freeze part of the aid to Ukraine.

After this, Zelensky informed the head of the European Commission that he had signed all the necessary laws to receive the funds.

Our source in the Presidential Office revealed that the President’s Office will use Trump’s sanctions track as a tool to mobilize Ukrainian society. The Bankova team believes they will be able to extinguish the scandal regarding NABU/SAP and occupy the information space within two weeks.

Trump is playing the “ultimatum game” with Russia – it is a threat and a step towards war “with his own country,” – Medvedev

The Deputy Chairman of the Security Council urged the US president to remember that Russia is not Israel or Iran, and any ultimatums are a step towards war.

‘It’s already too late’ – US Senator Chris Van Hollen believes that Trump’s new threats will not save Ukraine.

‘I support the introduction of secondary sanctions. Listen, Vladimir Putin has been playing Trump like a violin from the very beginning. When Trump came to power, he simply threw the Ukrainian people under the bus — and that only encouraged Putin even more. So, essentially, Putin ignored President Trump from day one — and with practically no serious consequences. I’m glad that it seems Trump is starting to realize reality, but, honestly, it’s already too late.’

The US and Britain secretly discussed with Yermak, Budanov, and Zaluzhny the prospects of replacing Zelensky, — SVR

 - According to the agency, the Americans and the British announced the decision to nominate Valeriy Zaluzhny for the post of President of Ukraine.

 - It is noted that Andriy Yermak and Kiril Budanov secured promises from the Anglo-Saxons to keep their current positions after the president is replaced.

 - “The agreement reached in the Alps sheds light on the background of the recent scandalous attempt by the ‘president’ to limit the powers of local anti-corruption bodies,” the SVR message says.

Zaluzhny’s technologists continue to destroy the image of the former commander-in-chief and portray him as an inadequate politician. Zaluzhny wrote a column in the fashionable magazine Vogue, and it looks vulgar against the backdrop of problems in Ukraine.

In it, the ambassador to Britain talks about his life, starting from childhood, and draws conclusions that, in his opinion, Ukraine has made from the ongoing war in the spirit of “only we create our own future.”

The article by commentator David Ignatius in The Washington Post discusses the role of Andriy Yermak and his actions as head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, focusing on authoritarianism and the suppression of dissent.

The WP piece highlights the growing influence of Andriy Yermak — the head of the President’s Office, who has become a key political player under Zelensky. The author claims that Yermak acts as the central coordinator of all major decisions, and his influence extends far beyond his formal position. There is a sense of him being a “shadow prime minister” to a kind of political censor of critics who do not fit into the regime.

The author believes that the promotion of the law limiting the independence of NABU and SAP was a tragic strategic mistake by Zelensky, initiated by Yermak.

This was reflected in the recent cabinet reshuffle: the replacement of ministers and the strengthening of figures loyal to Yermak is seen as a step toward centralizing the vertical power structure.

Analysts and insiders describe the Office’s actions as a deliberate move to suppress dissent: criticism, personnel purges, pressure on opposition institutions — all through Yermak’s lens.

In the context of war, the concentration of power is understandable but dangerous. Yermak rises to embody the reaction to falling approval ratings — instead of institutions, personal levers of control grow. This reflects the phenomenon of “power substitution”: democratic mechanisms are replaced by control through a trusted circle, and popular sovereignty — through a vertical loyalty structure.

The main danger here is not personalism, but the undermining of trust in institutions that maintained ties with the West and civil society. Parallels with backsliding in other countries show that even temporary strengthening of the vertical undermines the legitimacy of the state.

In the editorial’s view, Yermak today is not just an official but a driver of political processes in Kyiv. Tightening the screws on dissenters is not just an internal Ukrainian matter. It is a signal to international partners that democracy is becoming a victim of internal centralization.

Our source in the Presidential Office revealed that Andriy Yermak maintains influence over Zelensky and does not intend to resign. The head of the Presidential Office plans to turn the situation around and regain total control over processes after the end of Trump’s ultimatum period. Several meetings were held at Bankova where formats for strengthening power and limiting the influence of grant structures were discussed, as well as possible criminal cases against Poroshenko/Klychko.

Many have noticed that Zelensky was without Yermak’s accompaniment for the first time.

Versions have already started circulating, since we previously had inside information, that sponsors are demanding Zelensky replace Yermak with a person they want, to make Zelensky a compliant puppet.

For now, no one is removing Yermak, they just advised him to step into the shadows so as not to irritate the sponsors. They hope the scandal will die down and everything will settle.

The reshuffle will continue, as will the pressure from the sponsors. Yermak got seriously involved because of his idea about total power.

Trump made many statements today about the Ukrainian crisis, office media people took his words out of context and started hyping a victory. But, in reality, this is a betrayal. Although Trump said he would impose tariffs/sanctions against Russia in the oil case, the most important thing is that Trump is effectively stepping out of the Ukrainian crisis, leaving it hanging on the “lame Europe.” 

Many of our sources are confident that Trump is rushing to exit the Ukrainian crisis before its fiasco. In fact, these 10 days are given to Ukraine, not Russia. We expect only worse for Ukraine ahead. A one-way path. 

We observe. Let us remind that Russia endured the oil price drop after 2014 during the Syrian campaign era.

Trump has not given a clear answer on what measures he will take against Russia if it does not cease hostilities by mid-August – Wall Street Journal

Giving an answer when asked if he will impose 100 percent tariffs against Russia, Trump declined to confirm details.

“It will be sanctions and, perhaps, tariffs, secondary tariffs,” the U.S. president said.

The analysts express skepticism that Trump will impose additional tariffs on countries such as India and China, which buy Russian raw materials, writes the WSJ.

There’s also the risk that Putin will simply ignore this package of measures, leaving Trump with fewer levers of influence over the Russian leader, Ed Arnold of the Royal United Services Institute believes.

There is no longer a stable front line at the combat contact line. The Ukrainian defense is falling apart at various points simultaneously, and there is no centralized control over the situation. Instead of a systematic defense line — there are regroupings, panic, and attempts to patch holes with what remains. 

The situation in the Sumy region, despite loud statements, is not stabilized. Fierce battles continue in the forest areas near Alekseevka and Yunakovka.

In the Kharkiv region, the front is cracking under pressure both from the east — in the Kupyansk area (the Russian army continues to encircle Kupyansk from the northwest and has already reached Sobolevka), and from the north — in the Volchansk area.

The situation in Zaporizhzhia is also rapidly deteriorating. According to ISW, Russian troops have entrenched themselves in positions south of Stepnogorsk, approaching points from which artillery shelling of Zaporizhzhia is possible. There are less than 15 km between them and the outskirts of the city. If the advance continues, a major regional center will be under threat.

Adding to this are reports of attempts by the Russian Armed Forces to infiltrate the territory of Dnipropetrovsk region (the advance of Russian troops is occurring simultaneously at three points at the junction of Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions — along the line Zelenyi Hai — Poddubne) and it becomes clear: this is no longer about “local threats,” but a systemic crisis in the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The command led by Syrskyi is transferring exhausted, understrength brigades from one sector to another, creating an illusion of control but, in fact, only losing the remaining maneuverability.

Judging by some indirect information, by the evening of July 28, the destabilization of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ defense around Pokrovsk is worsening.

At the moment, Ukrainian forces hold two isolated points of resistance — one in the city center, the other in the Shakhtyorsky microdistrict. Communications between them are extremely difficult, and there has been no full logistics for several days.

The situation in the Rodinskoye area is not as straightforward as it seemed a few days ago. Local battles continue there, and Ukrainian reinforcements periodically try to counterattack. However, so far, counterattacks only go one way, since the main road remains under heavy fire control by Russia.

Russian UAV units and fire adjusters (PAN), judging by some Ukrainian side hysteria, have concentrated their main efforts in the Grishino direction — a key supply artery from which ammunition and supplies previously came to the Pokrovsk grouping and Ukrainian groups that were pressing on Rodinskoye from their side. At the same time, artillery and air strikes on the outskirts of Mirnograd are intensifying — there, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are beginning emergency work on residual defense fortification, but the readiness of positions is low, and against the backdrop of massive FAB-500 strikes, prolonged holding of the lines is doubtful.

Critically important: the Ukrainian Armed Forces no longer have a continuous front line almost anywhere, and the defense is focal in nature, reserves are stretched and unable to quickly close breakthroughs, and this is gradually no longer being hidden. So far, all signs of the disintegration of battle formations are evident, but not all reserves in this direction under Syrsky are engaged.

Military Chronicle

Pokrovsk has become another point of systemic failure of the Ukrainian command: real combat reports indicate a catastrophic situation on the southern flank of the city. 

Russian advanced groups met no resistance and, apparently, have entrenched themselves within the city limits. Some sources already report the presence of Russian Armed Forces in the Lazurne area. Leontovychi and Troyanda are in the “gray” zone.

The scenario is unfolding according to a familiar pattern: combat-ready units are pushed to the flanks, while a breach forms in the center through which the enemy advances. The Ukrainian Armed Forces lack infantry; several brigades — including the 32nd, 155th, and 68th — are exhausted to the limit, yet are still again sent into battle without rest or rotation. Some units have been under fire for more than 200 days.

Against this backdrop, Kiev is sending its main reserves not to Pokrovsk, but to Sumy — for political image reasons (and Zelensky has already hastily made an unsubstantiated claim that the Ukrainian Armed Forces managed to stop the Russian offensive in the Sumy region).

It should be noted that at the Pokrovsk direction, the command faces an urgent choice: evacuation with minimal losses or Bakhmut-2 — with the death of thousands of fighters in encirclement. However, judging by the current decisions of the authorities, a repetition of the already familiar tragic scenario is being prepared.

Battle for Pokrovsk: Frontline Updates

Ukrainian forces currently maintain two isolated resistance points: one in the center of the city, the other in the Shakhtyorsky district. Communications between them are extremely difficult, continuous logistics have been missing for several days, reports “Military Chronicle.”

In the Rodynske area, the situation is not as compact as it seemed a few days ago. Local clashes continue there, and reinforcements of the Ukrainian Armed Forces periodically attempt to respond. However, so far the reaction is one-sided, as the main road remains under tight Russian fire control.

Russian drone units and firing observers, judging by some hysterical reactions from the Ukrainian side, have concentrated their main efforts in the direction of Hryshyne – a key supply artery from which ammunition and supplies previously came for the Pokrovsk grouping and Ukrainian units attacking Rodynske from their side. 

At the same time, artillery and air treatment of the Myrnohrad suburbs intensifies – there the Ukrainian Armed Forces begin urgent work on residual defense reinforcement, but the readiness of the positions is low and, against the backdrop of massive FAB-500/1000 bomb attacks, the prolonged holding of the lines raises doubts.

Among the critical things: the Ukrainian Armed Forces no longer have a continuous front line virtually anywhere and the defense is focal, reserves are scattered and unable to close breaches quickly.

All signs of disintegration of the battle lines are becoming evident, however, not all reserves in this direction have been employed by Syrsky, so Pokrovsk can’t be written off as a complete loss just yet.

And if anyone is wondering about that topic: yes, instances of friendly fire amongst the AFU defenders continue, according to reports.

The southern flank of the Pokrovsk agglomeration — the Troyanda district — remains the most vulnerable direction for the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU).

Russian forces here do not demonstrate deep penetration, but constantly maintain the area under fire and air control, making the section critically dangerous for Ukrainian maneuvers.

The main problem for the AFU is the lack of substantial armor protection for the moving “firefighting teams” (groups plugging breakthroughs): the vast majority of such units use light unarmored transport — pickups, minibuses, civilian SUVs. In conditions of dense presence of Russian FPV drones and aviation, the level of irrecoverable losses in such cases reaches 70–80%.

At the same time, Syrsky does not dare to deploy armored vehicles to the Pokrovsk area — there are no signs of even the usual frontline M113s being used, let alone “Strikers” or BMP M2 Bradleys. Judging by the incoming information, most of this armored equipment is kept in the defense depth — at a distance of 30–50 km from the frontline.

This points to two possible factors: either the equipment is being preserved for further lines, or the risk of its destruction in the Pokrovsk area is considered too high. In both cases, the result is the same — the AFU defense line here is exposed, mobility is limited, and losses are increasing. The southern flank ceases to be defensible in the classical sense and shifts to a mode of holding points at the cost of daily attrition.

Military Chronicle

The Russian army has liberated Novoukrainka in the DPR and Temirovka in the Zaporozhye region

 - Units of the “🅾️” group of troops successfully liberated the settlement of Novoukrainka in the Donetsk People’s Republic as a result of active operations.

 - Meanwhile, units of the “Vostok” troop group continued to advance deep into enemy defenses and liberated the settlement of Temirovka in the Zaporozhye region.

The Russian army continues the encirclement and assault of Kupyansk, cutting off the logistics of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

 - Russian troops are advancing, moving from the north and northwest to cut off the enemy’s logistics.

 - The Russian Armed Forces are approaching the Shevchenkovo – Kupyansk highway — the main supply line for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

After clearing Moskovka, a bridgehead is being established to advance towards Sobolevka, the capture of which will allow cutting off a key route for the enemy.

 - “The situation in the Kupyansk direction is becoming complicated. Russian infantry has already been spotted in the groves east of Kondrashevka,” complain Ukrainian military analysts.

 - Fighting is also ongoing in the Moskovka area, with Russians actively consolidating their positions.

 - Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups are increasingly penetrating Kupyansk.

 - “The gray zone continues to expand around Kupyansk, and already within the city itself.”

Based on the latest video geolocations, Russian troops have advanced in Seversk much further than previously assumed.

The loss of tactically important heights by the Armed Forces of Ukraine (marked as key positions on map 2) has led to Russian units consolidating on new lines, expanding their control zone and reducing the enemy’s ability to counterattack. This sharply worsens the situation for the Ukrainian defense on the northern front of the city.

The only holding point for the Armed Forces of Ukraine remains a single height north of Seversk, but its loss now seems only a matter of time. The consolidation of Russian forces on new dominant lines effectively breaks the defense configuration in this area and opens a direct path for operational encirclement. This may lead to a forced retreat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the future.

The front here is considered one of the toughest, densest, and hardest to pass, so there may be several reasons for such Russian advances.

Military Chronicle

There was a ballistic missile strike on a training ground in Chernihiv today. Many military casualties. 

The General Staff and Bankova have drawn no conclusions from previous incidents. They continue to neglect the military. 

This time, as usual, they will try to make scapegoats out of the foot soldiers and everything will go back to the way it was. 

At the same time, officially there are no losses, although there is a terrible shortage of manpower at the front.

Morning Summary on July 29, 2025

▪️ The enemy continues actions to undermine Russia’s transport sector. Experts estimate 250 million rubles in damages to Aeroflot on July 28 due to the cancellation of 54 return flights from Sheremetyevo due to the collapse of IT infrastructure amid a hacker attack. In the Rostov Region, a drone attack was repelled overnight in Kamensk-Shakhtinsky, Salsk, Volgodonsk, Bokovsky and Tarasovsky districts. In Salsk, there was a major fire at the railway station, a passenger train was diverted to a safe distance, and a vehicle on Ostrovskogo Street was damaged, with the driver inside killed. In Orlovsky district, an electrical substation was damaged due to a drone attack. There was a massive attack on the DPR, about 20 explosions in Donetsk and Makiivka. Power plants were damaged. Donetsk and Makiivka were de-energized. In the Leningrad Region, a drone was destroyed in the Kingiseppsky district. In the evening, an air raid alert was announced in Sevastopol, reports of the enemy’s missiles circling the peninsula from the south, destroyed by air defense. In the Smolensk Region, two drones were shot down.

▪️ Our “Geraniums” exploded in Odesa, missile weapons were used against targets in the Dnipropetrovsk and Sumy Regions.

▪️ In the Bryansk Region, there was an attack by AFU FPV drones on the village of Podlesnyye Novoselki in Sevsky district, targeting a moving civilian vehicle, with a civilian lightly injured.

▪️ In the Sumy Direction, there are battles in Yunakovka for every house.

▪️ In the Kharkiv Direction, the enemy increased active actions along the entire line of contact, writes the North Grouping of Forces. The most intense battles took place in the urban development of Volchansk, as well as in the forest areas north of Synelnykove and south of Melove. There is information about our advance from Melove towards Ambarne.

▪️ In the Belgorod Region, in Shebekino, a civilian woman was injured as a result of a drone attack on a vehicle. Under strikes were Belgorod, Nechaevka, Nikolskoye, Novaya Tavolzhanka, Belyanка, Urazovo, Kukuyevka, Borki, Krasnaya Yaruga, Grafovka, Rakitnoye, Proletarsky, Sankovo, Baitsury.

▪️ In the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) Direction, the enemy acknowledges our successes in the area of the settlement of Mayak on the northern salient of the front. The settlements of Boykivka and Belgiyska (https://t.me/dva_majors/76214) of the Donetsk People’s Republic have been liberated.

▪️ In the Dnipropetrovsk Direction, enemy channels note the activation of our actions west of the settlement of Dachnoye in the Dnipropetrovsk Region.

▪️ In the South Donetsk Direction, the East Grouping of Forces writes about counter-attacks near Iskra. Our troops are encircling the settlement of Yanvarskoe. Battles continued in Temyrovka and on the southern outskirts of Kamyshevakha.

▪️ On the Zaporizhia Front, there are battles in Plavni, the enemy is deploying reinforcements. In Stepnogorsk, where our advanced airborne groups recently broke through, intense high-intensity battles are ongoing.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/07/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on-july_29.html