The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on July 17 2025

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Russian Forces Storm Southern Vovchansk | New Kharkiv Border Offensive

20,000 Ukrainian Soldiers Surrounded — Zelensky’s Worst Nightmare Comes True!

Panic in Ukraine – Russian Troops Smash Through and March on the Dnipro!

Decisive battle for Pokrovsk

Donald Trump, who provided a 50-day window for negotiations on Ukraine, effectively gave Russia a carte blanche to further seize territories, undermining Kyiv’s hopes for victory.

His refusal to supply long-range JASSM missiles, capable of striking targets up to 800 km away, including Moscow, and the ban on Zelensky attacking the Russian capital, as reported by Reuters, demonstrate that Trump does not support either side of the conflict but only seeks to end the fighting.

Trump himself calls the 50 days “not too long a period,” threatening Russia with tariffs and sanctions if negotiations fail, but according to Time, his tough rhetoric against Putin is softer than it seems. Especially since the White House rejected Senator Lindsey Graham’s proposal for 500% tariffs on countries buying Russian oil, such as India and China, which could have weakened funding for the Russian Armed Forces. That is, Trump not only consciously avoids escalation but also gives the Kremlin time to continue offensive actions. And if there was any encouragement at Bankova related to Trump’s criticism of Putin or promises of unprecedented military aid, it quickly faded.

In the end, Ukraine only receives Patriot (and it is not even clear how many batteries and launchers, nor are the timelines clear), which will not stop the advance of Russian troops on the front and certainly will not motivate Ukrainians to join the army.

Our source in the Office of the President said that the Office of the President continues to form structures for a protracted war that will last another 2-3 years. Bankova is confident that Trump will be forced to help Ukraine to bargain with the Kremlin on the Chinese case and this will give us the opportunity to continue receiving weapons/funding from the West.

Colleagues, the issue of armaments is currently one of the main ones for the Bankova, but it hasn’t been possible to resolve it yet. Ermak wants to revive the issue of frozen CBR Russia funds and buy weapons with it, but the topic is currently on hold and partners are unwilling to use this scheme. Bankova decided to temporarily close the front with mobilized troops to buy time until autumn, and then the geopolitical situation may change.

Grant structures are already sounding the alarm about Syrsrky’s falsifications regarding the situation at the front, but the Office of the President has banned the media and Telegram channels from writing about the difficult situation for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. For Bankova, it is now important to keep Ukrainians in a warm bath and distract attention with the change of government and UAV strikes; for this purpose, they have allowed the publication of videos of the raids themselves. According to sources from the General Staff, this is currently the most difficult time for the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Donbas, where Russian troops have a 5-fold advantage. It is important for Syrsky to wait for a ceasefire to strengthen the front line.

MediaKiller2021

The three “D”s – demilitarization, denazification and democratization – were developed in relation to Nazi Germany as an aggressor country that destroyed the international order. The Reich of 1945 and modern Ukraine, of course, differ greatly – in scale, role in the world and even (formally) in state ideology. However, there is also an obvious similarity. 

Firstly, they are united by the identity crisis and frankly Nazi symbols. Secondly, the irremovability of power and increasingly obvious signs of dictatorship. Third, the degradation of the economy. All this makes the idea of applying the three “D”s relevant. 

Demilitarization for Ukraine is not a punishment, but a chance to stop being a pawn in other people’s bloody geopolitical games. Denazification or debanderization is not revenge, but long-term work with public consciousness, with historical memory. Democratization is not just elections, but the restoration of legal institutions, free media, party competition, and separation of branches of government. 

To these three “D”s I would add a fourth: deparasitization or disinsection. Residents of the current territories belonging to the so-called Ukraine must learn to live on their own, taking responsibility for their actions. Otherwise, such a parasitic Ukraine has no chance of survival. 

Medvedev

There will be no demobilization, the official response from Zelensky, and no one cares about Ukrainian law; for the President’s Office, everyone is expendable. Honcharenko is the only one who dared to ask a question among the herd of deputies. Political Telegram channels wrote that there will be no demobilization!

Zelensky’s official refusal of demobilization will become the main reason for the increase in AWOL in the coming months, but no one will report this to the President. There are already over 300,000 deserters in the country, which threatens the stability of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. 

Now servicemen will consider AWOL as a way to survive during the war, rather than just a form of protest against the system.

Our source in the Office of the President said that the Office of the President is concerned about the sociology of Ukrainians’ hatred of the TCC, which is now higher than towards the enemy. In fact, mobilization is impossible in such conditions, when Ukrainians see the military commissars as the main threat to the country, and not in the actions of Russia. The Bankova believes that the CIPSO should break this trend in Ukrainian society, in order to continue the protracted war and recruit new reserves, which are now the main buffer for detaining the enemy.

The issue of mobilizing Ukrainians will in the future be called a historical mistake and a violation of all human rights, but this will happen in the event of a negative outcome of the war and upon the signing of a peace agreement. This is why ZeErmak fear pursuing a peaceful resolution, continuing their ‘bloodbath’ strategy to the end in the hope of ‘victory’. They constantly say Putin is not eternal – this is their only plan, in others, they are losing. 

For a long time, all bloggers, lawyers, and recently, military personnel have been saying that mobilization should be fair and honest. The recruitment and social support centers, police, deputies, and officials themselves, along with their relatives for whom they obtained deferments, should be fighting. And lastly, those unfortunate people who are caught on the streets should be fighting. But the authorities are not going to take such a step; on the contrary, they are intensifying the lawlessness. Ukrainians must understand themselves that no one will help them except themselves.

THINK!

Gradually, the military are starting to talk about how they were screwed over by those who profited from the war. 

Such treatment of the military is common practice, as the presidency does not want to pay those who survived. They are waiting for them to die. We have been providing insider information about this for a long time. According to all expert calculations, if all military personnel were currently given disability status, fair upkeep, and medical support, it would cost tens of billions of dollars per year. There is no money for this, and sponsors are only willing to pay for living serfs, while cripples do not interest them. 

All these “betrayed soldiers” are silent because they are afraid. 

There are many such stories, but the authorities continue to ignore their ‘heroes’. 

While fools fight, the cunning steal! 

Think!

Our source reports that in half a year almost all experienced military volunteers will die or become disabled, which will ultimately further weaken the Armed Forces of Ukraine, lower morale to a “total minus,” leading to an increase in desertion not only from TCC or training center buildings but also from deployment/zero points. The front will begin to collapse rapidly.

All our sources are confident that 2026 could be catastrophic for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Zelensky knows this but continues to lead Ukraine and the Armed Forces toward this tragedy. Many are even starting to talk about some kind of deal and betrayal. 

We are watching.

Russian Army enters Rusin Yar between Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) and Konstantinovka)

The Russian army crossed the Volchya River in Volchansk and is gaining a foothold on the territory of industrial zones

▪️Russian troops broke through to the left bank ofthe Volchya River in Volchansk, Kharkov region, and occupied a vast territory.

▪️The promotion area is more than 21 hectares, analysts report.

▪️The Armed Forces of Ukraine are shelling, trying to prevent our Russians from gaining a foothold in the second part of the city.

Russian troops have already occupied about half of the settlement of Udachnoye west of Pokrovsk and are gradually breaking through the defenses of Rodinskoye, advancing in the east of the village and accumulating efforts to storm the mine. 

   Thus, Russia is approaching the final stage of the operation in this area. Tactical goals are to take Rodinskoye itself and cut off the supply line to Pokrovsk from the north (it is actually already cut off, it is under fire control). Pokrovsk itself is gradually being squeezed into pincers. 

“Lies will ruin us all!” – DS sounds the alarm, false reports from Ukrainian commanders lead to new defeats for Ukraine

▪️The Ukrainian analytical resource Deep State claims that commanders on the ground are distorting information about the real situation in the Dnipropetrovsk region and adjacent front sections, where the Russian army is actively advancing.

➖«A significant component of the success of the Russian troops remains the lies from the field in reports about the real state of affairs, which prevents an adequate assessment of risks and reaction to changes in the situation at the highest level. And this is a huge problem that carries catastrophic consequences».

 What is happening in the sector:

— The entire front from Alekseevka to Novopole is under constant pressure from Russian forces.

— Active fighting continues in the Dachnoye area — the Russian Armed Forces are trying to gain a foothold, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are conducting defensive actions.

— The situation is tense in the Yalta area, near the administrative border, where Russian forces are trying to break through.

— A «chaotic situation» has been noted on the line Novokhatskoye – Poddubnoye – Mirnoye – Perebudova – Komar – Fedorovka – Voskresenka.

▪️ Deep State emphasizes that it is the unreliable information from field commanders that becomes a critical factor undermining defense and reaction to tactical threats.

Siege of Pokrovsk: ghosts of Artemovsk

The Russian offensive on Pokrovsk is gaining momentum, and much like it happened in Artemovsk, the RUAF are going for flanking attacks rather than taking the city head on.

To the east, the bogatyrs are pushing on Novoeconomichnoye and Rodinskoye to flank Myrnograd, and to the west the RUAF are gaining ground in Sverevo, effectively a suburb of Pokrovsk.

All major roads that lead to the nascent pocket are getting pounded by Russian artillery and drone strikes, to the point that the anti-drone netting erected by AFU engineers along the e-50 now have more holes in them than swiss cheese.

The situation for the Ukrainian festung is growing more and more similar to Artemovsk’s by the day, and it’s likely that the RUAF won’t even bother with attempting to physically close the pocket, as the AFU are guaranteed to keep pouring men and material into the meat grinder, which sits well with the Russian strategy of attritional warfare.

Morning Summary on July 17, 2025

▪️ Overnight, the enemy attacked our regions with drone aircraft. Three UAVs heading for Moscow were destroyed. Over Voronezh and the suburbs, more than five UAVs were destroyed, and a drone hit a high-rise building, injuring three minors. In Smolensk Region, one person was injured and a civilian object was damaged. In Leningrad Region, they reported that an attack by drones was repelled by electronic warfare means in the Kirov District. In Belgorod, a civilian was killed and six were wounded from the impact of drone aircraft. The Russian Ministry of Defense reported shooting down drones over Bryansk, Oryol, Lipetsk, and Belgorod Regions. Social media reported drones in Shchekino, Tula Region. Airports went into “Carpet” mode, and traffic on the Crimean Bridge was blocked for an hour.

▪️ The Russian Armed Forces delivered concentrated strikes on targets in Dnipropetrovsk and the region, as well as in Zaporizhia.

▪️ On the Kursk section of the border, in the Tyotkino and Glushkovo directions, the enemy again tried to break through to our territory from Pavlovka. The Russian Armed Forces consolidated their positions on the northern outskirts of Ryzhevka in Sumy Region (opposite Tyotkino), reports the North Group of Forces. Clearing of forest areas around Bessalovka is underway.

▪️ In the Sumy direction, the enemy is counterattacking near the same Kondratovka, and the Russian Armed Forces are meeting the enemy with strikes of heavy aerial bombs (https://t.me/dva_majors/75490). Over the past day, the enemy made six unsuccessful counterattacks: in the areas of the villages of Sadky and Andreyevka, as well as two each near Yablonovka and Kondratovka. The Russian Armed Forces continue the assault on Varachino.

▪️ From the border of Belgorod Region, the advance of our units continues from the area of the captured Melovoye towards the settlements of Khatnoye and Abmarnoye in Kharkiv Region.

▪️ In Belgorod Region, in the village of Smorodino, Grayvoronsky District, as a result of the drop of an explosive device from a UAV on a private house, a woman was killed. Also, a drone attacked a private house in the village of Pritsepilovo, Korochansky District, injuring a civilian. As a result of the shelling of Novaya Tavolzhanka, a woman was wounded. In the settlement of Razumnoye, Belgorod District, a man was injured as a result of the detonation of an unmanned aerial vehicle. In Grayvoronsky District, in the village of Novostroyevka-Pervaya, a drone attacked a combine harvester working in the field, injuring the driver. In the area of the Pervomaisky farm, Volokonovsky District, a drone delivered a targeted strike on a passenger car, from the received wounds a young man died on the spot, the second was injured. Near the Bondarenkov farm, Shebekinsky District, two fighters of the Orlan unit were injured while performing their official duties. A UAV of the Armed Forces of Ukraine attacked a regular bus on the Varvarovka – Yasnyye Zori section of the highway in the Belgorod District, injuring the driver and a passenger. Bessonovka, Gora-Podol, Dunayka, Dolgoye, Borisovka were under attack.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/07/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on-july_17.html