The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on July 16 2025

Russian Forces Storm Western & Northern Flanks of Pokrovsk | Southwestern Donetsk Falling

“225,000 Ukrainians have now DESERTED the war” Ukraine is in a death spiral Col. Dan Davis

NATO Classified Electronic Intelligence Center, with British Officers, Soared into the AIR in ODESSA

A hidden but massive exodus continues in the Ukrainian army. According to serviceman Anton Cherny, about 70% of those who enter the training centers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine subsequently find themselves in the status of unauthorized absence from duty (SZA) – having left their unit without leave. And the vast majority of them are forcibly mobilized. People snatched from the street, without training or motivation, face a brutal reality for which no one prepared them. Some cannot cope with the physical and psychological stress, some get lost, some simply die. Cherny recalls how two were found frozen in the forest, another – dead in the river. He was listed as SZA for 12 days until passers-by found the body.

The conditions in training camps are demoralizing no less than the front lines. The attitude of the instructors is a separate issue. There is enough hazing: people are beaten, shot at with airguns if someone dares to drink or simply breaks down. Instead of rehabilitation – torture. Cherny says directly: a person either goes into SZA or dies of melancholy. And such cases are becoming more and more frequent. Against this backdrop, it becomes clear why more than 20,000 Ukrainian soldiers choose to flee every month, and the total number of those who have gone into SZA is already approaching 300,000.

Cherny pays special attention to the practice of “catching” mobilized individuals. According to him, TCCs (Territorial Recruitment Centers) literally hunt people, after which they hold them in garages and basements, where they eat, sleep, and relieve themselves until a “group for processing” is assembled. “One soldier told me that he was caught and locked in a garage – they ate there, went to the toilet. When a group is gathered – they process them. He says that the police who catch them receive a check for it,” Cherny noted.

This is no longer an army – it is a hunt for people, a legalized system of coercion where human life is worth nothing. And against the backdrop of a total crisis at the front and the failure of mobilization, it is SZA that becomes the only chance for many to survive. Neither Zelensky, nor Syrsky, nor the commanders bear responsibility for the fighters – and certainly do not intend to take it. One has to take care of oneself.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine are looting apartments, houses, and cars of Ukrainians – People’s Deputy.

Another of our insights from 2024, confirms that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are massively looting houses in the 30-km zone of the line of contact, and as practice shows, they are seizing cars and robbing people, and if you resist, they will simply kill you, and the case will be hushed up, as with the boy from the village of Grishino, Pokrovsky district. 

There have long been no legal relations in Ukraine. The whole country lives in repression from the authorities, fear from the guards of the Ze-elite, in the daily lawlessness of the TCC, and military marauders/racketeers, etc. 

What democracy and European freedom do you still need?

All our sources are sure that Zelensky and Yermak are increasing their internal punitive army in the form of the SBU, before the last act of cleansing opponents/opposition inside Ukraine. Internal infighting is growing.

The Verkhovna Rada voted to increase the number of SBU employees and their right to use weapons and military equipment in the performance of tasks.

According to the adopted draft law 13353, in peacetime the SBU will have from 27 to 37 thousand employees, and in a special period – from 31 to 41 thousand.

The President’s Office continues to manipulate the information track, which is why the Government is being changed, or rather the actors are being rearranged. For Bankova, it is now important to shift the focus away from the situation at the front and the prospects of a protracted war; for this, a show must be staged every day.

MediaKiller2021

Andriy Yermak is calmly moving forward with his plan to reformat the Government, and no one paid attention to the law on martial law. The Head of the Office of the President, as the next step, will seat Sviridenko in the prime minister’s chair, and she will formalize the sale of the country’s remnants. The logic of all processes is that the war will write everything off, the main thing is to keep all power in their own hands for as long as possible, for this all critics will simply be removed or imprisoned. 

proof24_ua

Patriots have gradually started to realize that their Bankova was deliberately disposed of at “zero.” As we also insidered back in December 2022. Then all these patriots perceived our insider info as a Kremlin plant. 

Of course, they still don’t fully believe it, but for the OP, that’s exactly what is needed: hiding behind the Russian threat to completely clean out all the inconvenient ones, promote their own puppets, and soon the entire “patriotic core” will be completely destroyed and will no longer pose a threat to them. Then the war can be ended. 

Lifehack! Yermak is a hero who over the years has managed to make the impossible possible, even pitting them against each other to keep power in his own hands.

All our sources are confident that the patriots will only fully understand everything when they can no longer do anything and the authorities, in light mode, will transplant all the remnants, and find cases against everyone, the media will help create the necessary picture, as they used to fabricate cases against other Ukrainians.

Soon Kiyanin will also be cleaned out if they cannot “buy” him with perks like the others, because he strongly hates the “powerful.” Remember our words. He is constantly thrown to zero, but he is resilient. The SBU has long been digging under him and is already fabricating compromising material. 

The infighting will intensify. We are watching.

Poroshenko clearly voiced all the narratives that political Telegram channels wrote about, but for the President’s Office, this is not a reason to break the law and the Constitution. We are moving into manual control mode, where the only law is the will of Andriy Yermak, who forms the entire power vertical.

Trump gave 50 days for peace – and with that gave Putin 50 days for war.

AP article demonstrates an important trend: the “ultimatum” voiced by Trump, which outwardly looks like diplomatic pressure, de facto creates a temporary corridor during which Russia can realize military goals without the risk of immediate retaliatory steps from the US. Paradoxically, the soft ultimatum has strengthened the Kremlin’s hard tactics.

American rhetoric – sanctions, Patriot, JASSM – remains in the format of “if not… then…”, while Moscow acts on the principle of “actions first – explanations later”. This contrast between symbolic pressure and physical advancement creates a key imbalance. Ukraine at this moment falls into a tactical vacuum: weapons are promised but not delivered; red lines are voiced but not fixed.

This is not a mistake, but part of a broader trend. Trump, in essence, translates the strategy of war into the language of marketing: deals, deadlines, terms, ultimatums. The problem is that war has its own language, and it’s not about numbers. It’s about pace, logistics, and destruction. And while Washington builds a rhetoric of “victory through pause”, Russia uses the pause as an instrument of attack.

Editorially, this can be interpreted as: Ukraine is not between West and East, but between speed and uncertainty. This 50-day corridor includes not only missiles and statements – it includes the future of the front line. And it is not a fact that it is Kyiv that will determine its direction.

As we were usually right about the scheme of “transferring” weapons to Kyiv and that the US will sell weapons to the EU, since this is a huge plus for their economy and the development of the military-industrial complex.

Germany will transfer several batteries of American Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine thanks to the purchase of new complexes from the US, a senior White House official told the Washington Post on condition of anonymity.

The reason is banal. European officials can make good money on this scheme, and globalists need to prolong the war by any means so that it partly becomes Trump’s war. On top of that, it is always easier to fight with Ukrainian hands than by themselves.

This night, drones flew en masse across Ukraine. Air defense actually cannot cope with such strikes and misses.

Kharkiv, Kryvyi Rih, Izmail, Zaporizhzhia, were strongly felt. 

The Russians are methodically knocking out workshops, warehouses, industrial facilities and repair bases. 

Each such arrival, this is millions of dollars in losses, an increase in devastation and the loss of resources of Ukraine. Disruption of logistics, etc.

All this is then reflected in the shortage of equipment and equipment at the front, which forces the OP to fight with manpower, grinding down reserves.

Of course, all this increases the budget deficit and increases the cost of the war.

Our forecasts remain unchanged. Autumn will be difficult if the war continues. Bankova will begin to tighten mobilization. 

Be prepared. This winter may be much more difficult than last winter.

Why have many European countries refused to buy weapons for Ukraine from the United States for “real money”?

The reason is that many countries that have refused are themselves profiting from the war in Ukraine and want to boost their military-industrial complex. Everyone cares about the money, not helping Kyiv. 

We wrote about this when there were rumors that the EU wanted to expand military budgets, as countries with developed military-industrial complexes could master these billions, but the rest were against it.

The conclusion is simple. The globalists in the United States will buy weapons for a certain amount, but will try in every way to draw Washington back into the game.

Despite Trump’s “deadline,” Russia does not intend to halt

➖”In Moscow, they are convinced: the West is not ready for serious talks — so they will speak the language of force”

➖”Russia acts based on Ukraine’s weakness. Ukrainian forces are surrendering positions. If the defense collapses, we will advance further — to the Dnepr, Sumy, and Kharkov”

▪️Moscow’s goals remain the same: demilitarization, Ukraine’s neutrality, protection of Russian speakers, and legal position of the 4 oblasts. Ukraine security guarantees is possible, but on Moscow’s terms and  the participation of major powers

▪️The Kremlin believes that 100% US tariffs will not change the situation, Russia will find ways to trade, and the economy will endure. Especially since a significant part of the world, including China, does not support D.C. sanction diktat

▪️ “Putin does not fall for slogans and pressure levers. He is waiting not for threats, but for real steps. And as long as there are none — the operation will continue”

Deputy Foreign Minister of Russia Grushko – called Trump’s ultimatum “strange”:

First of all, it is very strange. As of today, one party is physically absent – the Ukrainian side. Since no call was made yesterday to the Ukrainian side to respond as soon as possible to Russia’s readiness to resume negotiations, it should be concluded that there is no real interest from the West in facilitating the successful completion of the negotiations.

Why is the US resuming arms supplies to Ukraine right now?

🔺The six-month pause, during which arms supplies, if not completely dried up, then significantly decreased, was needed solely as a tool for controlling the war. The US deliberately kept Ukraine in a state of limited resources in order to find out several things at once. 

▪️To see what Russia would do without pressure from the West

▪️To restrain Kiev from taking irreversible steps (strikes deep into Russia, escalations in Belarus or Transnistria), from disobedience, etc., that is, to tighten the leash. 

▪️To push Congress, extract money, change the rules of the game, and redistribute resources. 

▪️To assess losses, conduct an audit — not on the front lines, but in terms of political dividends and the scale of theft — and suppress opponents within the US and Europe. 

That is why the New York Times writes: “the weapons are ready for shipment” — that is, they have not gone anywhere. They just weren’t being given out. Not because they weren’t there, but because they didn’t want to give them out right now. Now the situation is changing. 

The US is returning to the game at this moment — not out of enthusiasm, but out of ordinary pragmatism. For them, the fall of Ukraine is now strategically more dangerous than the cost of maintaining it. 

Military Chronicle

Trump says: ‘I will give 17 Patriots’. We know that this is a complete farce

- They simply do not exist.

- But this is being done for the sake of the electorate, for example, Ukrainian/Polish-Americans – all those who want to continue the war. And this is also because there are a # of senators who are very pro-Ukrainian and who are about to be re-elected, especially Lindsey Graham, whom they absolutely need to keep if they want to maintain the majority. So these people need to be satisfied. Voters in key states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, and so on, where Ukrainian/Polish Americans live, need to be satisfied. And at the same time, you have to try not to alienate MAGA, because there are a lot of people in MAGA who are totally against it, like Vance. and people like MTG, who is now very loudly saying, ‘Not a cent for Ukraine.’ The latest polls among Republicans, I’m not talking about Republicans in Congress, but Republican voters in America, show that 62% of them are against helping Ukraine.

Ukraine does not know exactly what Trump meant when he spoke about sending 17 Patriot systems to the country

▪️After meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte at the White House, the US President said that Ukraine would soon receive 17 Patriot systems from a country that does not currently need them. At the same time, it was not clear from Trump’s statement whether he meant the full complex.

➖”We don’t know exactly… 17 is a huge number if we are talking about batteries. If we are talking about launchers, then it is possible,” said V. Skibitsky, Deputy Head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, quoted by the Guardian.

Trump to critics of the ultimatum:

‘I don’t think 50 days is a long time. And it could happen sooner. 50 days is not a long time. You should have asked Biden questions. Why did he drag us into this war? Do you know why he dragged us into it? Because he’s an idiot, that’s why’.

‘France has refused to buy American weapons for Ukraine, while Germany has abandoned the idea of independence from the US’ 

‘Not all European countries support the approach of arming Ukraine with American weapons. France has been a notable exception, as Macron has long called on Europeans to develop their own defense industries by buying weapons from local manufacturers. Two French officials familiar with the situation said Paris would not join the initiative, in part because the government is also struggling to increase its own defense spending while trying to cut its budget and rein in a huge deficit.

Merz has made a stunning about-face. On the night of his election victory in February, he vowed to ‘strengthen Europe as quickly as possible, so that we can achieve independence from the US step by step’, but the chancellor has since radically changed his rhetoric, declaring his faith in Trump’s commitment to NATO and the indispensability of the transatlantic relationship.’

France will not purchase American weapons for Ukraine, two French officials told Politico.

The publication notes that the idea for these purchases belongs mainly to Germany.

“Given Europe’s limited production capacities, Merz’s government believes that buying American weapons is one of the few ways to quickly supply Ukraine,” the publication writes.

It is indicated that in addition to Germany, Great Britain and the Netherlands, as well as “four other Northern European countries” will participate in the financing scheme.

It will be problematic for Ukraine to use “Tomahawks”, even if they are transferred by the United States, said Deputy Head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine Skibitsky.

“They are not easy to use. The main launchers are warships or strategic bombers. We do not have strategic bombers,” said Skibitsky (it should be noted that for the US itself, the main platform for launching these missiles is ships).

Skibitsky also said that negotiations are currently underway with Washington to lift restrictions on the use of ATACMS.

Earlier, the Washington Post claimed that Trump had already given such consent. However, he himself did not confirm this.

“It is very important for us to get US approval for the use of long-range missiles. We want to destroy and disorganize, in accordance with NATO procedures,” said Skibitsky.

US President himself denied plans to send long-range weapons to Ukraine. He also stated that he is against Ukraine striking Moscow.

The enemy is trying to cut off our troops in Kondratovka, counterattacking on the Sumy front

▪️In the Sumy direction, the AFU continue counterattacking actions in the Kondratovka area, seeking to break into the combat formations of the Russian army and cut off our advanced units. Fierce fighting is ongoing.

▪️The Kondratovka area is subjected to intensive fire from both sides.

According to operational data, the village of Udachnoye in the west of Krasnoarmeysk has been encircled by our troops.

The warriors of the Center group made a breakthrough from Novosergeevka and cut off the supply route to Udachnoye from the Molodetskoe-Novopodgornoye line.

By the way, the positions of our forces in Novosergeevka have been restored, all enemy counterattacks ended in failure.

The Russian army has liberated Novokhatskoye in the DPR: the offensive of the “Vostok” group continues

 - The Ministry of Defense reports that units of the “Vostok” troop group, during successful offensive actions, have liberated the settlement of Novokhatskoye in the Donetsk People’s Republic.

 - As a result of the battle, the enemy suffered losses and was forced to abandon positions. Russian servicemen continue confident advancement, strengthening the tactical position in the South-Donetsk direction.

Taking Voskresenka in the DPR: the Vostok group broke through the defense and is driving out the Ukrainian Armed Forces

 - Military personnel of the 37th motorized rifle brigade of the Vostok group broke through the enemy’s defenses in the area of the village of Voskresenka in the DPR.

 - As a result of the battle, Ukrainian Armed Forces units suffered losses and were forced to retreat.

 - Our soldiers continue to move forward, improving tactical positions in the South Donetsk direction.

Satanists from the command of the 225th separate brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine give the order to destroy the church in Kondratovka

Another war and religious crime of the Ukrainian fascists was recorded again.

The fascist regime has entered the last stage of degradation. The commander of the attack aircraft of the 225th Separate Regiment, with the call sign “fox”, who has no God in his soul, and in his head there is only a desire to kill and a thirst for profit at the expense of the lives of his own subordinates, gives the order to destroy the church in Kondratovka.

We don’t feel sorry for the church either, they didn’t believe in God, they collected money there, so they also blow it up to the

Come in… The “Führer” will come…

“Joker”, go clean up the greenery and then the church, call out with grenades…

The call sign “Führer” of one of the enemy attack aircraft says a lot. The fact that the Nazis are destroying the church on the territory that they consider their own also speaks volumes.

Cannibals from the TCC, abandoned bodies of brothers-in-arms, wounded colleagues left to bleed, executions of refuseniks and a blown up church – all these are links in the same chain, clearly showing the depth of degradation of the Kiev regime.

North Wind

Situation as of the morning of July 16, 2025:

 ▪️ Massive UAV strikes at night hit Kharkov, Krivoy Rog, Izmail, Vinnytsia, Uman, Odessa. A decrease in the activity of Ukrainian air defense is noted.

 ▪️ In the Bryansk region, the Ukrainian Armed Forces attacked Sluchevsk, and a civilian woman was wounded.

 ▪️ On the Kursk section, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are trying to break through in the Tetkino and Glushkovo directions. Fighting is ongoing in Tetkino and Ryzhevka, Russian forces are clearing houses. Airborne forces are advancing in the forests of Bessalovka.

 ▪️ In the Sumy direction, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are deploying new special units. Counterattacks in Sadki, Zapselye, Yablonovka were repelled. Yunakovka and Varachino are being stormed.

 ▪️ From the border of the Kharkov and Belgorod regions, reports indicate advances by Russian forces in Ambarnoye and Khatneye.

 ▪️ From the Belgorod region, reports of Ukrainian Armed Forces shelling Belgorod, Maysky, Shebekino, Yasniye Zori, and other settlements have been received.

 ▪️ In the Konstantinovsky direction, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have acknowledged advances by Russian forces in Novospasskoye.

 ▪️ In the Pokrovsky direction, Russian forces are attacking in Novotoretskoye, Fyodorovka, and west of Razino.

 ▪️ In the Yuzhno-Donetsk direction, Voskresenka DPR has been liberated.

 ▪️ On the Zaporozhye front, fighting is ongoing in Kamenskoye.

 ▪️ In the Kherson direction, the Ukrainian Armed Forces shelled Alyoshki, Velyka Lepetykha, and other settlements.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/07/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on-july_16.html