The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on July 15 2025

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Our sources in the General Staff doubt that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will hold the situation on the eastern front. Currently, the main enemy strike is aimed at encircling Pokrovsk to slow down the advance of the Russian army. Syrsky is forced to throw elite units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. About 8 brigades, approximately 10,000 troops, could be operationally encircled near Konstantinovka. The situation there is critical due to limited ammunition supplies and the possibility of retreat. All information from the front is filtered, and journalists are prohibited from writing about the difficult situation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to avoid spreading panic in society. 

spletnicca

Battle for Pokrovsk: Frontline Updates, part 1/2: Myrnograd.

In just three days, the northeastern flank of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Pokrovsk and Myrnograd area has degraded considerably.

The Russian MoD announced the establishment of control over the village of Mayak north of Myrnograd, but much more important and interesting events are happening to the south. 

The Ukrainian military reports that Russian forces have already crossed the Kazeni Torec River near the village of Razino and reached the outskirts of Krasny Liman, which is in the outskirts of the town of Rodinskoe.

Ukrainian channels lament the wide open fields in this area, where the AFU are unable to build a stable and connected defense, leaving a lot of holes for the Russians to penetrate.

In case of continued success, the Russian armed forces will be able to not only cut this road from here, but also to directly enter the northern outskirts of Myrnograd itself, forcing the Ukrainians to fight directly in the city.

Battle for Pokrovsk, frontline updates, part 2/2: Pokrovsk itself 

Russian forces have entered the town of Zvirove on the western flank, by all intents and purposes a suburb of Pokrovsk. We can already say that the RUAF have now breached the city limits.

To the south, advances have been made within Lysivka, and some sections of the fortifications south of Pokrovsk are already in the contact line.

Considering how thick the fortifications to the south are, however, it’s likely that the RUAF will focus their efforts on the much weaker western flank.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) were surrounded in Shcherbinovka near Toretsk.

But they try to keep quiet about it, because no one likes bad reports to be sent to the top. However, the main paradox of the Ukrainian information machine is that it can simultaneously publish two mutually exclusive narratives. Some Ukrainian (and pro-Ukrainian) analysts write that everything is collapsing for Russia near Toretsk. That everything is lost, the cast is being removed, the client is leaving. And then Jihadi Julian Röpke appears and starts to throw a tantrum that Russia has advanced and captured Petrovka and Leonidovka, and that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are surrounded. Moreover, Röpke is hard to suspect of sympathizing with the Russian Federation. The German correspondent for BILD has lived in this world for a long time with a stable anti-Russian position, but sometimes, nevertheless, he gives the base. When even he writes that the Russian Armed Forces have entered new settlements in the Toretsk direction and have taken the Armed Forces of Ukraine in pincers, it becomes obvious: there is no “rollback” there is a steady advance.

Military Chronicle 

The settlement of VOSKRESENSKA in the Donetsk People’s Republic has been liberated by the forces of the “EAST” group of troops!

🌟As a result of decisive offensive actions, the guardsmen of the 37th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 36th Army of the “East” grouping liberated the settlement of Voskresenska.

In fact, the units of the grouping broke through the enemy’s defenses and, after defeating the second defensive node of the AFU in this area (on the western bank of the Mokrye Yaly river), following the settlement of Karl Marx, continued their advance westward, as a result of which Voskresenska completely came under the control of the units of the 36th Army.

❗️Voskresenska is already the sixth settlement liberated by the Far Easterners in July.

❗️They took control of a section of the state border with the Dnipropetrovsk Region of more than 4 km of the front line.

❗️As a result of fierce battles, more than 430 buildings were cleared, and up to a company of the enemy from the 31st Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the AFU was destroyed.

❗️The guardsmen of the 37th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade have installed Russian flags in various parts of the settlement.

💪The “Far Eastern Express” of the “East” group of troops continues its offensive, taking another step towards the complete liberation of the Donetsk People’s Republic.

According to sources, Andriy Yermak is currently removing all American clientele in the country to strengthen his influence and maintain power during the transitional period. British intelligence fully controls the track and supports the Head of the Office of the President. In fact, an authoritarian regime is being formed under the format of a single leader who manages all processes in the country. The liquidation of the hitmen went according to the necessary scenario; no witnesses were needed, which is why they were simply eliminated on the spot, and the legend about resistance during detention was needed to close the case.

Our source reports that Bankova issued an oral warning to the judges that if they punish the TCKashnikovs, then it will be perceived as obstructing mobilization and then their career can be considered over, plus all agencies will dig up dirt on that judge.

That is why there are almost no court decisions against the TCK.

Bankova is intimidating everyone and promoting unlimited mobilization.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine are looting apartments, houses, and cars of Ukrainians – People’s Deputy.

Another of our insights from 2024, confirms that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are massively looting houses in the 30-km zone of the line of contact, and as practice shows, they are seizing cars and robbing people, and if you resist, they will simply kill you, and the case will be hushed up, as with the boy from the village of Grishino, Pokrovsky district. 

There have long been no legal relations in Ukraine. The whole country lives in repression from the authorities, fear from the guards of the Ze-elite, in the daily lawlessness of the TCC, and military marauders/racketeers, etc. 

What democracy and European freedom do you still need?

Our source reports that the killed Kyiv SBU colonel Ivan Voronich had a quiet conflict/contradictions with the head of the SBU Malyuk. Voronich was feared by Bankova and personally by Yermak.

Voronich was driven by the CIA and promoted by them for the post of head of the agency. Rumor has it the Americans wanted to put forward his candidacy as an ultimatum to Bankova. If Voronich was not appointed head of the SBU, Washington would have rolled everything back. 

The Office and Malyuk knew about this, as Voronich worked very closely with the CIA and Americans but did not publicly show up. 

In the SBU there is a special department for “important matters” that come from ZeYermak. 

Many sources are sure that the killer did not leave Ukraine immediately, as he was confident he was “insured” and was waiting for the “green light,” but it turned out as usual. They used and dumped him. The SBU knew where the killer was hiding. 

The source adds that the killer is connected not with the Russian but with the Azerbaijani mafia, which is 100% connected and controlled by Baku. The British/Yermak work closely with the Azerbaijanis. 

They simply removed a dangerous competitor and a true professional. 

The infighting in the country continues. We warned long ago that the time would come when “patriots” would start “removing” each other. 

In Dnipro they have long been shooting and blowing each other up over the redistribution of spheres of influence, as in Odesa the radical Hanul was taken down by “their own.” 

It’s convenient when everything can be blamed on the Kremlin/FSB, etc.

Trump wants to give missiles to Zelensky so that he can strike Moscow and St. Petersburg, – Washington Post 

▪️During a conversation with Zelensky, Trump asked why he hadn’t struck Moscow.

➖”We can, if you give us the weapons,” Zelensky said.

▪️Trump stated that Ukraine needs to increase pressure on Putin, not only on Moscow but also on St. Petersburg.

▪️Trump also considered supplying Ukraine with long-range Tomahawk missiles – reports WP citing sources.

▪️They are currently removed from the supply list, but they may be returned later if Trump wants even more leverage.

▪️The overall military aid package to Ukraine worth 10 billion dollars will also include permission to use 18 ATACMS missiles with a range of 300 km and possible supplies of additional such missiles.

The Pentagon’s decision to  freeze military aid to Ukraine was made after a memo from Deputy Secretary of Defense Elbridge Colby. It was his position that convinced Pete Hegseth, to reduce supplies – in the face of limited US resources and growing tensions with China.

▪️In the memo, Colby pointed out that the volumes of weapons requested by Kiev threaten to deplete American arsenals needed for their own needs, including troop training and strategic reserves around the world

▪️Colby is the author of the book “Interdiction Strategy,” in which he insists on prioritizing the defense of Taiwan and the containment of China

➖ “Many refuse to admit that resources are limited. But Colby is doing just that – offering to focus on the main threat, even at the cost of concessions in other directions”

▪️The pause in aid to Ukraine is not so much isolationism as an attempt to adapt to a new geopolitical balance: the US is not ready for simultaneous military activity in Europe, the Middle East and Asia

Trump may transfer long-range JASSM missiles for F-16 to Ukraine — Military Watch Magazine

▪️US President Donald Trump, according to Military Watch Magazine, is considering the possibility of transferring long-range air-to-ground cruise missiles JASSM to the Kyiv regime, which are capable of striking targets at distances up to 370 km, and in new modifications — up to 1000 km.

▪️ These missiles, previously supplied in limited quantities to Washington’s allies, allow strikes on targets deep behind enemy lines. Notably, even the US strategic ally — South Korea — was not granted permission to purchase JASSM at the time.

Peskov on whether Putin will comment on Trump’s statements:

The statement by the US president is quite serious. Some of it is addressed personally to President Putin. We definitely need time to analyze what was said in Washington. And if and when President Putin deems it necessary, he will definitely comment on it. I would not want to get ahead of ourselves, so let’s wait for Putin’s decision on whether he will comment on it himself.

What changes for the Russian Federation after Trump’s statements about the supply of Patriot SAMs?

🔺While everyone is counting how much Trump promised—17 batteries or 17 launchers—the most important thing is being overlooked. 

From a military point of view, nothing changes for Russia. The army continues to implement the chosen strategy: methodical pressure, destruction of infrastructure, degradation of the reserve. 

Yes, each subsequent US package gives Ukraine a chance to last a little longer, but not to level the balance. Why? Because the US is not supplying what is needed. The Armed Forces of Ukraine need not SAMs, but tracked armored vehicles, which can be lost in the hundreds. They need “Bradleys” in the amount of 1000+, not 30. They need “HIMARS” in the dozens (if not hundreds), not in pairs. They need vehicles that carry infantry to and from the front line, without which it is impossible to either attack or defend – M113, MaxxPro, M-ATV, Striker, anything on wheels and with armor. And most importantly, they need infantry. And with it, more precisely, with its quality, there is still tension. The mobilization system is obviously focused on quantity, but given the desertion rate of 70%, it is difficult to maintain any significant rhythm. It is difficult to fill trenches when mobilized people run away, and volunteers have not yet been assembled in the fields between Rabotino and Orekhov. 

At the same time, the West is not eager to supply either equipment in the required quantity, or especially people. The United States will not fight with infantry for Ukraine. NATO will not put its contractors on Bradleys. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are left alone with the reality in which even the construction of new fortified areas near Slavyansk does not make sense without people willing and able to hold them. An empty trench is not a defense, but a decoration.

Military Chronicle

Trump’s special Ukraine fluffer Kellogg stated that he will discuss in Kiev with Zelensky Trump’s plan to accelerate US arms deliveries to Ukraine with NATO’s help

➖”Today in Kiev, we will discuss with Zelensky the historic Trump-NATO agreement that will speed up the delivery of the best American weapons to Ukraine. Fully funded by allies, it accelerates deliveries, supports Ukraine’s defense, strengthens NATO unity, and underscores its commitment to peace through strength,” he wrote

MP Skokhod stated that Ukraine does not need American weapons, but people.

‘I think that we can really expect a decision from Trump on providing weapons, but I want to add here that the war cannot last forever. And we have a main problem with people. Nobody gives us people.’

The US is ending its military aid to Ukraine, US Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker – Fox News.

“I think the first thing to understand is that the days of the US sending tax money without restriction to defend Ukraine are over.  Trump made a very smart decision and made an agreement with NATO where Europe and Canada will pay for the weapons and the US will build them. Obviously, we build the best weapons systems in the world, and everyone wants them. We will prioritise those weapons to Ukraine. It also sends a very clear message to Putin: We gave you a chance at peace. Trump is a peacemaker. But if you want war, we will arm Ukraine and Europe will pay for it. 

Merz on arms supplies to Ukraine:

We are doing this in our own interests. It will help Ukraine defend itself from Russian bombings. Only in this way will the pressure on Moscow to finally achieve peaceful negotiations increase. Ultimately, we demonstrate that we have united as partners in the field of security policy.

The advancement of Graham’s bill on 500% duties against Russia and its trading partners has been halted in the US Senate, according to Politico. 

 - Senate Majority Leader John Thune stated that he would refrain from advancing this sanctions package following today’s statements by Trump. Thune also suggested that the US President’s statements mean that the Senate no longer needs to pass the Graham-Blumenthal bill.

 - Trump previously stated that he may impose 100% duties against Russia and its trading partners in 50 days. Whereas Graham’s bill refers to tariffs of 500%.

Massive raid on Voronezh and neighboring regions, Russian air defense destroyed 55 drones – details

 - Last night, Russian air defense forces repelled a massive attack by Ukrainian drones: a total of 55 drones were destroyed: 32 over the Belgorod region, 12 over the Voronezh region, 6 over the Black Sea, 3 in the Lipetsk region, 1 each in the Rostov and Kursk regions.

 - Voronezh region

— As a result of falling debris from downed UAVs, seven people were injured, including three elderly residents. One of them was hospitalized. Apartments in high-rise buildings, private houses, building facades, cars and commercial facilities were damaged. A hit was recorded in the building of a kindergarten and the Gallery Chizhova business center.

 - Lipetsk region

— In Yelets, a drone fell in an industrial zone, one person was injured. A arrival was also recorded in the Dobrinsky district.

 - Kursk region

— Two people were reported injured as a result of an attack on a car.

 - According to governors, all the wounded received the necessary assistance. Utility services are dealing with the consequences. Authorities promise to quickly restore damaged facilities.

Morning Summary for July 15, 2025

▪️ Overnight, UAVs were destroyed in the Verkhnedonskoy District of the Rostov Region. Several drones were destroyed in the suburbs of Voronezh and one of the districts of the region. From the Lipetsk Region, there were reports of air defense activity in Yelets, with a likely target being an industrial facility.

▪️ Several dozen “Geraniums” worked on targets overnight in the Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Zaporizhia, Mykolaiv, and Sumy Regions. In the evening, footage of fires after strikes emerged from Chuhuiv in the Kharkiv Region.

▪️ From the Bryansk Region, there were reports of an attack by a Ukrainian UAV on the settlement of Suzemka.

▪️ On the Kursk sector of the border, our troops repelled an attempt by the enemy to break through from Ryzhevka towards Tyotkino, counterattacked and drove the enemy out of seven households in the Ukrainian border village, reports the North Group of Forces. The area of Russian Armed Forces control is expanding near Bessalovka in the Sumy Region. Another attempt to break through from Pavlovka to our border village of Novy Put was repelled.

▪️ In the Sumy direction, the AFU continue counterattacks near Kondratovka and Andreyevka, but the number of their attacks has decreased. The Russian Armed Forces continue the assault on Varachino and Yunakovka.

▪️ In the Kharkiv direction, the Russian Armed Forces continue the assault on Dehtiarny in the Volchansk district, with battles ongoing in the Velykyi Burluk direction in the area of the recently captured Melove.

▪️ In the Belgorod Region, a 2-year-old boy was wounded as a result of a UAV attack by the AFU in the village of Shchigorevka. A man who was injured today in an attack on a passenger car in Shebekino also sought medical attention. Voznesenivka, Ziborovka, Nikolayevka, Baitsury, Chapayevsky, and Semeynyy were under strikes.

▪️ In the Konstantinovsk direction, the Russian Armed Forces demonstrated their flag in the settlement of Petrovka (https://t.me/dva_majors/75374), but fighting continues. The difficult assault on Yablonovka is nearing completion. The completion of these offensive actions from several directions may soon mean that the Russian Armed Forces will reach the Kleban-Byk reservoir, strictly 3 km north of which is Konstantinovka. From the northeast, our forces continue fighting north of the village of Dyleyevka and west of the village of the same name.

▪️ Over Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk), the flank of our advancing grouping is looming ever stronger. The Russian Ministry of Defense announced the liberation of the settlement of Mayak in the DPR. Data from the scene indicate the development of our offensive on the nearby Boykivka and Fedorivka. Earlier, south of there, near Myrnograd, the Russian Armed Forces achieved success in Mykolaivka. The enemy is worried that further advancement of the Russian Army towards the city of Rodinskoye will further threaten the logistics of the AFU in the Pokrovsk-Myrnograd-Rodinskoye area.

▪️ The East Group of Forces on the Hulyaipole direction liberated Malinivka in the Zaporizhia Region, for which fierce battles had been going on.

▪️ On the Zaporizhia front, the enemy notes that after the capture of Kamyanske, the Russian Armed Forces are also storming the neighboring Plavni.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/07/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on-july_15.html