The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on June 14 2025

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The conflict between Israel and Iran will affect the development of the conflict in Ukraine, given that Moscow uses the negotiating track not as a concession, but as an element of strategic pressure and global bargaining. Israel’s war with Iran distracts the attention of the United States and Western resources from Ukraine, and now the conflict will finally go out of focus.

Moscow is trying to integrate itself into the reformatting of the global security architecture – and is using the “humanitarian track” as a channel to reach the United States, which is clearly visible in the communications between the Trump Administration and the Kremlin.

Ukraine is a field of not only regional but also global clashes of interests (RF-globalists-USA-China-EU). The connection with the Iranian-Israeli conflict worries the Office of the President for a reason, a reduction in focus and military aid to Ukraine, simplification of pressure from the Russian Federation and even the lifting of sanctions may become a real scenario. Since Israel requires more resources, and the priority of the US and globalists is shifting to supporting an ally in the Middle East. Iran is strengthening the Kremlin’s proxy diplomacy, which allows Russia to receive indirect benefits, positioning itself as an “equal player” with a claim to negotiating subjectivity as a global force.

Zelensky confirmed the information that the conflict in the Middle East after Israel’s strike on Iran could negatively affect Ukraine.

“This is negative for Ukraine, because the Russian Federation is growing stronger due to large revenues from oil exports. This factor certainly does not help us,” Zelensky said.

He also stated that he would like “against the backdrop of the worsening situation in the Middle East and the increase in aid to Israel, aid to Ukraine does not decrease.”

Only at Bankova they understand, and most importantly, take into account past experience: when the operation in the Gaza Strip began, all allies, and not just the USA, cut aid to Ukraine several times.

Our source in the OP said that Western partners refused to discuss the deployment of EU troops, and Britain withdrew from the peacekeepers case altogether. In fact, the Kremlin pushed through its demand, which was put forward before the start of the negotiating track in Istanbul, that EU peacekeepers and NATO troops should not be on Ukrainian territory.

Continuation of the “Istanbul track” will remain the main one for the Kremlin, which means the peace case will continue.

Moscow remains involved in the negotiating framework, despite the position of the Office of the President and the globalists.

The main goal is not the exchange of prisoners as such , but the integration of this track into a larger strategy to restart the global security architecture . The Kremlin uses the humanitarian track as a political lever :

For the Russian Federation, negotiations are not altruism , but a tool of logistics and bargaining aimed at restoring channels with the United States.

Humanitarian rhetoric is an illusion behind which political routes are laid.

Recognition of “territorial realities” is a red line :

Moscow is not prepared to compromise on the territorial issue. This is not up for discussion , and becomes a condition for any further de-escalation . Hard power remains in the arsenal, and responses to sabotage and strikes will be intensified – this is the new norm , combining toughness with diplomacy. This is evidence of the dual strategy of the Russian Federation : a combination of pressure and demonstration of “constructiveness”.

The role of negotiations is not concessions, but the image of Russia as a global player; maintaining the negotiating framework is a tool for legitimizing the Kremlin as a responsible participant in the global dialogue.

Taynaya_kantselyariya

Our source in the OP said that the Trump Administration demands that Ukraine continue negotiations with Russia, and the pressure has only increased since the start of the Iran-Israel conflict. The State Department demands that Andriy Yermak accept the Kremlin’s positions and move to a single memorandum, which should be agreed upon in July.

Taynaya_kantselyariya

The conflict between Israel and Iran opens a new window of opportunity for Russia, which is recognized by experts, but not yet fully understood in the Office of the President. The scenarios for the development of the conflict in Ukraine, taking into account the war between Israel and Iran, which are currently being analyzed at Bankova, do not take into account all the escalation factors. All of Zelensky’s statements on this track are made taking into account analytics and scenario forecasting, but without a serious escalation or direct participation of the West in the conflict in the Middle East.

•The positional advantage of the Russian Federation through the “military overload” of the Western system.

Briefly: The West is overloaded with support for Israel. Russia is increasing pressure on the front while remaining on the negotiating agenda. Intensifying attacks on infrastructure to destabilize Ukraine.

•”Humanitarian window” and freezing of the conflict on the Kremlin’s terms through the “Istanbul track” and the “global reset” format offers a freezing option, against the backdrop of the West’s fatigue from two wars. A conditional truce with the preservation of Russia’s control over the current territories. Bankova takes into account the fact that Russia and the United States are conducting behind-the-scenes negotiations,

•Escalation on “two fronts” and a new global conflict. Parallel escalation in the Middle East and Ukraine provokes a global confrontation (in fact, a new “cold war 2.0”). Conflicts merge into one front West vs. Anti-West (Russia, Iran, partly China). At the same time, the Russian Federation intensifies its offensive in order to take advantage of the split in attention.

•Provocation of the use of WMD/tactical nuclear weapons, Russia uses nuclear blackmail as a lever in global bargaining, especially if Israel uses WMD against Iran. If Israel can use WMD, then Russia “has the right”.

The Israel-Iran war increases Moscow’s chances of military and political pressure in the Ukrainian conflict, as the West risks ending up in a two-front crisis. Russia will balance between force and “constructiveness” – betting on the world’s fatigue with conflicts and desire for a “reset”, which greatly weakens Ukraine’s position.

Look how beautifully Trump’s game was going, but Zelensky and the globalists ruined everything.

Trump , realizing that the Middle East would burn, brought air defense there from Ukraine and most likely from other places, at that moment he was harshly warming up the peace case in the Ukrainian crisis, realizing that Kiev was vulnerable. But Bankovaya and the globalists took and carried out their “web”, giving the Russian Federation the opportunity to bomb Ukraine as much as they want, because it is now vulnerable, they have a terrible deficit of air defense (if Moscow will bomb Ukraine en masse for a week, it will nullify our air defense, some part of the planes will remain and that’s it).

Another characteristic feature of this story is that Trump values ​​the Middle East more than Ukraine. A bad signal for Zelensky.

The Kremlin has taken a pause in massive combined attacks for now. Perhaps they are trying to reach an agreement again (something on the Internet and behind the scenes, everyone is sure that, as usual, Moscow will be screwed, someone is just buying time for something). We are watching.

Morning Summary for June 14, 2025

▪️ In the Samara Region, there was an attempted drone attack on an industrial facility in Novokuybyshevsk overnight. Several drones were detected and destroyed in several municipalities of the Voronezh Region. Also, in Nevinnomyssk, Stavropol Territory, Ukrainian drones struck an industrial zone (reportedly a chemical nitrogen plant), injuring one person. The second target was Novokuybyshevsk.

▪️ The Russian Armed Forces struck enemy targets in Zaporizhia (https://t.me/warhistoryalconafter/226217), Kryvyi Rih, Izyum in the Kharkiv Region, and the Pavlohrad district of the Dnipropetrovsk Region.

▪️ On the Kursk sector of the border, the Ukrainian command continues to redeploy new units to the Tyotkino and Glushkovo directions and does not abandon attempts to break through to our territory. Attacks from the Iskriskovshchyna and Ryzhevka directions were repelled.

▪️ Overnight, Belgorod was attacked by a Ukrainian drone, resulting in minor damage to the roof of an apartment building from the explosive device drop. During the day, Malinovo, Hrushevka, Shebekino, and Novaya Tavolzhanka were also hit.

▪️ In the Sumy direction, the “North” Tactical Group liberated the settlement of Yablonovka in the Sumy Region. Airborne units continue to advance in Yunakovka and the forest area near Yablonovka. Motorized rifle troops are engaged in fierce battles in Novonikolaevka, where the enemy has redeployed new units. Our marines continue to clear the forest areas around the village of Sadki.

▪️ Northeast of Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeisk), the “Center” Tactical Group, moving 15 km around the city, liberated the settlement of Koptevo in the DPR.

▪️ In the South Donetsk offensive, the “East” group of forces liberated the village of Komar in the DPR. The Far Eastern warriors continue to wedge into the enemy’s defenses in the area of the settlement of Shevchenko. In the Polohy direction, the Amur warriors are splitting the echeloned defense towards the settlement of Malinivka.

▪️ In the DPR yesterday morning, the enemy launched a missile strike on the Hornyatsky district of Makiivka. As a result of the attack with M30A1 rockets with fragmentation warheads from HIMARS, a married couple – a man born in 1977 and a woman born in 1980 – who were moving along the bypass road in the Hornyatsky district of Makiivka, were killed.

Two Majors

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/06/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on-june_14.html