The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on May 25 2025

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Our source in the OP said that after the exchange, the most difficult phase for Ukraine in the negotiation track begins; they are expecting drafts for a roadmap and a memorandum from us, and we must agree on the initial format with the Trump Administration.

Our source in the OP said that Andriy Yermak gave instructions to the Center for Informed PsyOps to prepare a joint cognitive campaign to discredit Trump’s policy on Ukraine, the main semantic superstructure will be a comparison with Afghanistan and Vietnam. Bankova wants to form an opinion in the Western media that Trump’s withdrawal from the negotiating track will humiliate the United States, which will receive the strongest international blow if Ukraine loses the war to Russia and we are forced to sign a cowardly peace.

Our source in the OP said that Zaluzhny is controlled by the Head of the OP, and his political statements are coordinated with Andriy Yermak, while visually they diverge from Zelensky’s policy. In fact, British intelligence is preparing a “successor plan” to maintain control over the Ukrainian case and form a political vector from scratch.

Our source in the General Staff said that the negotiating track has finally destroyed the morale of the Ukrainian Armed Forces military, who have begun to refuse to carry out risky tasks of the General Staff. Syrsky believes that the rebellion of commanders is one of the reasons for the peace talks, which he is unable to influence, since sabotage is taking place along the entire vertical and now not only the military, but also the command staff refuse to go on suicidal attacks.

The head of the Kiev regime recorded an evening speech in which he spoke about the next phase of the prisoner exchange and said that “Ukraine is ready to take any diplomatic step to achieve peace and receive security guarantees.” At the same time, it is noteworthy that the recording took place not in his office in Bankova, but in a room with a white wall as a background. Ergo, the Narkobunker. 

The Narkoman and Churchill reborn is once more bravely issuing speeches from safety. This could mean that Zelensky is no longer sure that he has security guarantees in the event of joint Russian attacks. 

Israeli prime ministers have stopped traveling to Kiev, and apparently, there is now no one to offer him “guarantees”, and it seems that the guarantees have been downgraded to “guarantees with nuances”. 

These nuances may also involve a CIA/MI6 “cleanup crew” sweeping in during the next Russian strike and blaming it on the “Bears” if the Narkoman becomes too much of a political liability.

Zelensky has become very predictable.

First he sends hundreds of drones to Moscow, and then complains again that a response is flying across Ukraine?

Do you know what changed? Many stopped playing along with Zelensky. Of course, this is because the US stopped noticing these manipulations and provocations.

His statement today confirms insider information that they deliberately sent drones to Moscow en masse, as they wanted to provoke the Kremlin to retaliate and cause a tragedy in Ukrainian cities, so that they could then use it for PR. They have been using this life hack for 3 years. It worked before, but now it doesn’t.

 Zelensky stated that:

“The silence of America, the silence of others in the world, only encourages Putin. New sanctions against Russia must be introduced, which will “definitely help.”

Remember, all these shellings, deaths, tragedies will continue as long as the war continues. Only peace talks and peace agreements can bring peace to the country. But the “office” elites do not want to end the war.

Ukraine is in for another noisy night tonight.

As we can see, the Russians’ tactics have remained the same. They send drones en masse to one selected “fat object” and destroy it en masse. The chances of 20 UAVs getting past the air defense are very high. They also send them in waves, when the first wave devastates the air defense, and the rest easily reach the target.

Be careful!

Colleagues from the telegram channel Kartel correctly write that Ukraine spent a lot of air defense missiles to repel the last two attacks of the Russians. We write constantly that the air defense case will always be in short supply for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Especially if the US stops supplying missiles to the Patriots.

Let’s agree that at some point, this will first lead to the selection of priority targets, and then to complete defeat in the “air”, which will give the Russians the opportunity at some point to begin dropping airborne troops.

We indicated in our January 30th outline that one of the many challenges of 2025 will be the shortage of air defense and ammunition.

The situation for the Ukrainian Armed Forces is very difficult, but, most importantly, it will only get worse in all cases.

According to estimates by a number of foreign analysts, a night strike on Kiev amounts to no more than 20% of the potential that Russia could theoretically realize in an attack on the Ukrainian capital. At the same time, the key role in the current configuration of attacks has long been played by Geranium-type kamikaze drones used in several waves and with high density, up to 15-20 UAVs per object and about 200 drones simultaneously. 

The limited scale of current strikes is explained not by a lack of funds, but by tactical calculations: the work of air defense is assessed, radar positions are revealed, and the entire response structure is revealed. 

The flexibility of the strike configuration is preserved – Russia will not use the entire attack force at once, leaving room for changing tactics and increasing intensity.

According to Western experts, if necessary, Russia can scale the strike, including the simultaneous use of Geraniums, Kalibers, Kh-101, Kh-55 and hypersonic missiles Kinzhal (which still does not use, despite a six-month break), with suppression of air defense. 

So the biggest strike, both in terms of density and number of targets hit, seems to be ahead. 

Judging by the slight panic on some Ukrainian channels, overnight Patriot SAM crews used up more than 20 PAC-3 (“Patriot Advanced Capability-3″) missiles. According to some estimates, the number of spent missiles is closer to 40. 

This is the latest and most technologically advanced version of the Patriot anti-aircraft missile. Compared to the basic PAC-3, the MSE version received an improved engine and aerodynamic stabilizers, which allowed to increase the intercept range to ~40 km and altitude to ~20-25 km. But in the case of the strike on Kiev on the night of May 25, this apparently was not enough.

It is a curious paradox: while Western mediators are discussing “peace initiatives” and schedules for a potential ceasefire, hundreds of tons of weapons are being loaded onto Ukrainian territory – especially Kiev.

This includes additional missiles for Patriot systems.

It seems that the Ukrainian armed forces, counting on the freezing of the front line and a pause in the strikes, have carefully placed the weapons they have received in warehouses. In conditions when the strikes were expected to hit infrastructure and military facilities, not stashes, this all seemed like a reasonable decision. But the strikes were lined up to work on pre-opened storage, transportation, and deployment points.

The threat to use “Oreshnik” as part of Operation #khryukostyag (oinkflag) has yet to be carried out, but Moscow now has its hands untied after massive UAV raids on Russian cities. 

One of the key, but not fully clarified, questions in the story of Patriot air defense systems in Ukraine is who exactly operates these systems in combat conditions. 

It is publicly stated that it is Ukrainian crews that have undergone accelerated training in the United States and Germany. However, given how complex Patriot is as a system, there are doubts that it is really Ukrainians.

Patriot is not a “shoot and forget” SAM system. It is a platform linked to the U.S. intelligence architecture that requires coordination with external data sources, including satellite data. If this all really works – then there are US operators involved in the loop, either remotely or directly on the ground. 

If this hypothesis is correct, it suggests two important thoughts. 

First, in addition to influencing the activity of HIMARS/ATACMS, the U.S. has a direct military presence in the Ukrainian air defense system loop, which means that it is directly involved in the confrontation with the Russian Air Force. 

Secondly, the fact that some Patriot divisions, despite their declared capabilities, miss missiles and drones, indicates that the Americans have already realized the practical limitations of their system in combat with a technologically advanced enemy. 

In addition, the night raid on Kiev demonstrates that Russia’s current strikes are not the peak of its capabilities, but a selective operation. They [strikes] can be scaled up if desired, both in terms of density and saturation of various means, and in terms of geography. 

The other question is whether U.S. industry and the military are prepared to operate under such conditions. 

Although the U.S. prints its own money in unlimited quantities, supplying Patriot is hundreds of millions of dollars on top of the billion-dollar cost per battery, which is sensitive even under such conditions. Neutralizing the Patriot has been shown to be a matter of thirty drones and three ballistic missiles. 

All of which the Americans can’t help but consider. 

What about the night strikes?

 With simple manipulations, thanks to NASA satellites and Ukrainian media, we find out what was hit last night as a result of a massive missile and drone strike on objects in Ukraine, in order of screenshots:

🟠 The most severe fires broke out in warehouses in the village of Mirnoye near the city of Slavyansk.

🟠 At the same time, another blow was dealt to the Pavlograd Chemical Plant in the city of Pavlograd. Strong fires were also recorded there.

🟠 In the city of Chuguev, the strike was carried out on the territory of the air base. In particular, the fire engulfed probable air defense and radar positions, as well as hangars ( before the SVO, personnel were housed there and training sessions were conducted ) along with the buildings of the technical and operational unit.

🟠 The night strike also hit the Gogolev Airfield in the Kiev region. There, according to the NASA satellite, fires after the strike engulfed both the technical buildings of the airfield and the hangar with aircraft ( since the fire began to spread from it towards the field ).

🟠 As the cherry on the cake, thanks to the State Emergency Service of Ternopil Oblast, we learn that the missiles reached the Ternopil State Scientific and Technical Enterprise “Luch”. Judging by the footage, the strike was carried out both on the building of the enterprise itself and on the workshops, where a large fire broke out.

That’s how things are…

Iznanka

Russian Army Continues Breakthrough to Konstantinovka, Breaking into Yablonovka and Popov Yar

▪️”The Russians have made significant progress in the Popov Yar area and have gained a foothold in the southern part of Yablonovka,” Ukrainian military analysts also admit.

▪️Russian troops are also finishing off the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Romanovka, controlling most of the village

The Russian army took Romanovka and entered Zarya in the Konstantinovsky direction – enemy resources

 - The Russian Armed Forces made significant progress, entered Zorya and took half of the village.

 - Also, Russian troops took Romanovka and are already advancing through the plantings north of the settlement.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/05/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on-may_25.html