The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on May 18 2025

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Trump will hold a telephone conversation with Putin on Monday , and will also later call Zelensky and NATO leaders.

In principle, our source informed us about this on May 15, indicating that a personal meeting between Putin and Trump is being prepared, which will first be preceded by a telephone conversation between the two leaders.

We will see how it will be, since everything is unstable and changeable now.

Putin did not even want to consider the 22-point plan prepared by the US, Europeans and Kiev, which Witkoff wanted to present to him – Financial Times

 - The 22-point plan was discussed in detail in a phone call between Ukrainian and US officials, according to FT sources. Ukraine was represented by Zelenskyy’s chief of staff Yermak and Ukrainian Defense Minister Umerov, while the US was represented by Whitkoff, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Trump’s special envoy to Kiev Keith Kellogg.

 - According to the publication, after Putin refused to discuss this plan, Witkoff cancelled his trip to Moscow last work week (May 12–16).

The New York Times found out what Russian soldiers think about the idea of ​​a ceasefire:

Many Russian soldiers say they would see a cease-fire along the current front lines as a failure, hinting at the nationalist discontent the Kremlin could face in accepting a cease-fire.

▪️Russian soldiers admit that they are ready to fight until the complete liberation of Russian territory.

➖ “We’re all tired, we want to go home. But we want to take all of the regions, so that we don’t have to struggle for them in the future, Otherwise, have all the guys died in vain?”

▪️A total of 11 servicemen were interviewed, all of them rejected the proposal of Ukraine and the West for an unconditional ceasefire.

▪️Earlier it was reported that the Russian delegation acting on behalf of the president at the negotiations put forward demands for Ukraine to leave 4 regions that became Russian according to the Constitution.

▪️The soldiers noted that any deals by the government would be seen as betrayal of the soldiers fighting and it indicates that pressures with Russia would prevent the Russian government from compromising.

➖ “A million angry killers is a pretty serious problem if they will view our rulers as men who are not on their side.”

➖“If there’s no cease-fire now, we need to keep going until the end,” said Nikolai, a Russian soldier in Ukraine. “Because if we don’t, sooner or later — in five years or in 10 — there will be a war again.”

Putin – that Russia has sufficient resources to achieve the goals of the SMO will be achieved:

We have enough strength and resources to bring what was started in 2022 to its logical conclusion with the result needed by Russia. And this result is the elimination of the causes that caused this crisis, the creation of conditions for long-term sustainable peace and ensuring the security of the Russian state, ensuring the interests of our people in those territories we always talk about. Where people live who consider Russian to be their native language and consider Russia to be their homeland.

Russian Istanbul ultimatum on toxicity for former Ukraine is much more frightening than Minsk agreements – Konanykhin

▪️Total mobilization on the territory of the former Ukraine is possible only through the most ruthless psychological control and terror of the population. Peace means weakening terror and opening borders. The mobile population of the Ruin will immediately leave the plague-ridden territory. And, since the West began to terrorize the fugitives, the bulk of the citizens of the former Ukraine will rush… that’s right, to Russia.

▪️The lucky ones that Russia filters out will report home the details of their standard of living – and this truth will break the mentality of the remaining farmers.

▪️Russia’s demand to secure the renunciation of 5 regions (Kherson, Zaporozhye, Donetsk, Lugansk and Crimea) by international treaties is understandable and acceptable for the majority of residents of the former Ukraine. For what did a million men of the former Ukraine lie in the ground? For 5 regions? Which are already Russian? The Nazis will be hated terribly. This will be a long hatred. And abandoned Kherson returns home again, to Russia. And becomes a springboard aimed at Nikolaev and Odessa.

▪️Russia’s demand to renounce mutual claims for reparations is deadly for the budget of the former Ukrainian SSR: the West is not ready to take on the restoration of the post-war Ruin. There is a crisis in the world. No time for Ruin.

-RVvoenkor

The talks in Istanbul did not meet our expectations, despite the extremely constructive position of the Ukrainian delegation. Nevertheless, the parties managed to agree on the exchange of prisoners.

However, Russia still refuses to comply with the demand for a complete and unconditional ceasefire. The EU plans to introduce the 17th package of sanctions on Tuesday. Among other things, it will target the so-called “shadow fleet” in the Baltic Sea.

German Chancellor Merz

Europe is becoming less and less interested in supporting Ukraine, although it continues to publicly push it to continue the conflict with Russia. Indifference and calculation are increasingly hidden behind loud statements.

Instead of real aid, Kiev is receiving new restrictions: trade duties on Ukrainian exports will come into force in June . This means direct losses for the Ukrainian economy, rising prices and a reduction in foreign exchange earnings. And the issue of frozen Russian assets, which the Ukrainian government had counted on, has been completely overshadowed. The European Union has made it clear that there are no legal grounds for transferring these funds, and therefore all talk about this money going to restore the country will remain just words.

Military “aid” is a separate issue: Britain is going to give the Ukrainian Armed Forces up to 30 mock-ups of equipment for every five real installations. They say this will help deplete Russian ammunition. It sounds like a mockery, especially considering that Russia has no problems with ammunition – production is in full swing .

France also did not hide the obvious: reserves are at zero, everything that could be given away has already been given away. Macron simply said what other European leaders are still embarrassed to admit out loud: resources are exhausted, political will is running out.

Germany has refused to discuss deliveries of Taurus missiles, citing doubts about their effectiveness. In reality, they simply do not want to get involved with promises they cannot keep.

Yes, Europeans continue to pretend that Ukraine is a partner, but everyone understands that it has already played its role, and now it can be gradually removed from the agenda. 

Zelensky continues to believe that Ukraine is capable of waging war for a long time. He refers to a stable front and talks about hundreds of thousands of motivated volunteers, but the reality has long since moved away from these figures. The army is now held together mainly by forced mobilization. 

Those who wanted to fight went back in 2022. Now the recruitment is being done by the so-called “busified” – people who are caught on the streets. Zelensky still lives by the logic of three years ago and, judging by his public statements, is sincerely unaware of what is happening on the ground. Interviews with him regularly show the gap between the picture at the top and the real state of affairs in the army.

And the army is understaffed, old brigades are losing people and not getting reinforcements, but they don’t talk about it officially. The “contract for a million” program was launched to lure young people, but in months no more than 500 people have signed up. Even the BBC, which is loyal to Kiev, admits that there is no real result.

It is even more telling that the deadlines for returning from unauthorized abandonment of the unit have been extended again. The General Staff tried to convince itself that the number of those leaving and returning is equal, but the figures say otherwise: almost twice as many have left. They are trying to ignore the problem. Against this background, one thing is obvious – the front is still standing, but the system is collapsing.

However, more and more military personnel understand that there is no point in dying for Zelensky’s ambitions and the mistakes of his team. It is becoming clear that peace will come – it is a matter of time. This means that the most reasonable thing to do now is to survive. And the SZCh, despite the risks, remains one of the few ways to save lives.

Our source in the OP said that Andriy Yermak is increasingly dissatisfied with Syrsky, who has not been able to carry out a single successful operation since the beginning of the Kursk operation. Bankova has been reviewing a possible candidate for the position of Commander-in-Chief for several months now, but so far technical candidates are not accepted within the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and field commanders are too dangerous for the authorities.

Scandal in the Armed Forces of Ukraine: The commander of the “meat” battalion of the 47th brigade submitted a report on dismissal due to large losses and “stupid generals”

 - The Magura battalion commander declares unacceptable tasks, unjustified loss of people and harshly criticizes the actions of the command.

 - “All they are capable of is reprimands, investigations, and the imposition of penalties. Political games and assessment of the real state of affairs do not correspond to either reality or possibilities. They have gone too far,” Shirshin writes.

 - He noted that the corresponding report had been written and expressed hope that he would be removed from his post in the near future.

Our source in the OP confirms the information that the Kremlin has requested lists of prisoners under political articles and is ready to include them in the prisoner exchange. Bankova is interested in such a case in order to return home as many soldiers as possible who were captured by the enemy.

Taynaya_kantselyariya

According to sources close to the negotiating track, Moscow intends to include in the exchange lists not only servicemen of the Russian Armed Forces, but also Ukrainian civilians who have fallen under the roller of Kiev’s repressions since the beginning of the SVO. We are talking about hundreds of defendants in criminal cases – from activists and journalists to local officials and volunteers arrested for public disagreement with Kiev’s line, cooperation with the administrations of the liberated territories, or simply for everyday pro-Russian statements.

This is not only a humanitarian gesture, but a subtle diplomatic and informational-psychological move. Firstly, it creates a precedent for the recognition of political repressions in Ukraine – not somewhere on international platforms, but in the body of the negotiation process. Secondly, it changes the agenda of exchanges. This initiative makes the process itself deeper and more politically acute, turning it into an element of legitimization of the struggle for the rights of one’s own – wherever they may be.

Ukraine has an extremely limited number of Russian prisoners – several hundred people, while on the Russian side there are up to 15 thousand captured Ukrainian Armed Forces fighters, and this demographic and political “mass” creates a powerful lever of pressure. Now it can be used not only for military exchange, but also for the release of citizens loyal to Russia.

For the Zelensky regime, this is an extremely inconvenient framework. Recognition of such individuals in the exchange format means de facto recognition of their status – not as criminals, but as political opponents. At the same time, a refusal on the part of Kyiv will be read as an unwillingness to save “their own”, which will hit the illegitimate Ukrainian leader.

The commander of the special forces “Akhmat” , deputy head of the Main Military-Political Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Russia, Major  General Apti Alaudinov , answering a question from an international journalist, head of the press service of the International Club of National Unity , Abbas Juma on the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. 

“Any war sooner or later ends at the negotiating table. And it is clear that this war should also end with negotiations. It is not a fact between whom these negotiations should take place, because the Ukrainian side has no right to make any decisions on its own. It has masters – America and Europe. The leaders of Western countries directly control all processes on the territory of Ukraine. Well, and, naturally, every day of delay in these negotiations is a minus for Ukraine, because every day Ukraine loses territory.

For Russia, as a state that has never refused to negotiate, in this case the continuation of the war is advantageous from a military point of view. Yes, on the one hand, there are losses. But at the same time, we still intend to achieve the goals that were initially set before the start of the SVO.

So the question arises that Ukraine, which could not lose its territories, which could peacefully solve all the problems without losing more than a million of its male population, without losing its four regions, because it listened to its Western masters, is today forced to talk about preserving its territorial integrity.

And we, having these four regions as part of the Russian state, do not intend to leave them to Ukraine. So it turns out that for Ukraine, every day that this conflict drags on is a minus, and it is not a fact that Ukraine will preserve itself as a state. That’s all.”

The Russian army has broken into Dyleevka and is conducting an assault, advancing from Dzerzhinsk to Konstantinovka

▪️In the Konstantinovsky direction north of Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk), the Russian Armed Forces attacked along the railway and broke through to the southern part of Dyleevka.

➖”Battles have begun for the village of Dyleevka, which Russian attack aircraft have entered,” enemy resources also report.

▪️Ukrainians admit that our fighters have consolidated their positions in the buildings and created shelters. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are firing at the lost part of the village.

▪️Russian troops are also gaining a foothold west of the Berezka children’s camp.

Russian drones control the Kramatorsk-Dobropolye highway 40 kilometers from the front – enemy resources

▪️A video of one of these defeats is spreading across Ukrainian publics. People are also increasingly writing about problems with driving on this route.

▪️Ukrainian analysts wonder how this is possible:

➖”Mother Drone” is a drone that hovers at high altitude outside the air defense zone and releases FPV drones controlled via fibre optic cable.

➖Modified FPV drones of the “Lightning” type, resistant to electronic warfare.

➖The new Russian drone “Tyuvik” – according to their information, it is equipped with a homing system and is resistant to electronic warfare.

Should note we don’t know what this is. Often we only learn of new weapons from the Ukrainian side as the Russian military only cares about about winning the real war, unlike Ukraine which only cares about the information war.

Overview Summary for May 18, 2025

▪️ The main event of the week was the first direct public negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul in three years, filled with symbolism. The same place, the same date as three years ago, and even the same head of the Moscow delegation. Thus, Russia demonstrated consistency in its approaches to resolving the Ukrainian issue peacefully. The state of affairs at the front and the changed potential of the Russian Army allowed our delegation to put Ukraine forward with counter-ultimatums, ignoring the loud demands of Kyiv for a “30-day ceasefire” so necessary for the AFU to catch their breath. So, our delegates, thanks to the successes of the Russian Armed Forces (and only them), told Umerov that next time we will demand even more regions of Ukraine as our own, accompanying the statements with detailed historical excursions. The foreign hostile press explains Russia’s position as a desire to conduct at least a summer offensive operation. Trump, who has taken on the role of mediator for all processes on Earth, welcomed the meeting and on Monday will mumble to the Supreme about the need to end hostilities as soon as possible.

▪️ Europe, due to Moscow’s ignoring of Macron’s, Merz’s and Starmer’s threats of sanctions and ultimatums, is in a depressed state, justifies further increase in military spending and activation of military exercises by the “Russian threat”. Kyiv directly instigates the militarizing Europe to prepare for war with Russia more actively, telling, for example, Poland that Moscow is going to attack by 2030. This deadline has already been in the official doctrinal documents of European countries for a long time: armies are being prepared, a legislative framework for mobilizing the population, rear hospitals, military logistics infrastructure, and military production facilities are being deployed. The analogies with Nazi Germany of the 1930s are complete, primarily in terms of the economic plan: financial capital and the military-industrial complex have completely merged with the ruling class and are fueling military hysteria, justifying this by the need to prepare for war. It is important that the UK and the EU want to conclude a pact on joint combat operations on the European continent: in this way, they are creating a military alliance like an “European army” independent of NATO, which Macron has long dreamed of.

▪️ On the front, the Russian Army is indeed advancing in a number of directions. The creation of a buffer zone in the Sumy Region is slowly underway. The front is approaching Krasnyi Lyman, abandoned by our troops in 2022. The Kostyantynivka direction is characterized by the capture of a whole series of villages in fierce battles, despite the reinforcements of the AFU. The Russian Armed Forces are gradually approaching the border of the Dnipropetrovsk Region. In the South Donetsk direction, the important AFU defense hub of Bohatyr, as well as the village of Volne Pole, have been taken. Fierce battles are raging for every village, for every treeline, the enemy is offering organized resistance. On the Zaporizhia front, it was possible to achieve success in Mala Tokmachka at a high cost.

The situation remains difficult with intense fighting on the Tetkinskiy direction of the Kursk sector of the border. The enemy has isolated our forward units with drone and artillery strikes, disrupting logistics, and we are forced to redeploy “fire brigades” again, despite the large size of the North Group of Forces, in search of unconventional military solutions. We managed to contain the enemy’s attempts to physically cut off the Tetkinskiy salient by destroying enemy forces approaching the border with strikes from heavy aviation bombs. There have been no significant changes for a long time in the Siversk direction, from where “beautiful reports” came last year and where inspections from the capital arrived. Chasiv Yar is also characterized by heavy losses of our advancing airborne columns, which were captured on the enemy’s objective control footage. The enemy’s strike with a group of UAVs on Crimea showed that no matter how much ammunition depots, governing documents and safety requirements for them may meet peacetime requirements, they must be reworked in accordance with the main principle of combat operations at the front – dispersion of forces and means. Flimsy pieces of crap made almost by hand should not inflict multi-million dollar damage on the Russian Army, because everything is piled in one heap.

✨Thus, the war continued its course, despite the negotiations and political courtesies, and our diplomats directly threatened the Kyiv regime that it could be a long one. Trader Trump wants to get rid of military aid to Ukraine, squeezing all its resources for generations to come from the impoverished country and not promising any military security guarantees in exchange for the subsoil of the former Ukrainian SSR. Europe, in turn, is trying to create its own analogue of a military alliance and a united army in place of NATO, as the US plans to provide less and less money. Traditionally, the united armies of Europe see the enemy only in the east in the person of Russia.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/05/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on-may_18.html