The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on May 16 2025

No breakthrough in Turkey as Ukraine-Russia peace talks falter

Trump Tells Reporters He Will Meet With Russia’s Putin

Ukraine Russia Peace Talks DISASTER – They’re Over Already

Russia, Ukraine agree to exchange 1000 prisoners during peace talks in Turkey

RUAF Appoint New Commander of Ground Forces Ahead of Summer Offensive | Vilne Pole Has Fallen

[ Ukraine Frontline Changes ] AGAIN, MASSIVE CAPTURES!!! Multiple settlements fall to Russia~!

Massive Encirclement! Ukrainian Front Falls Apart Under Russian Attack

Vilne Pole has been captured | Heavy fighting in Torske

Russia Fully Captures Myrolyubivka, East of Pokrovsk

Massive Ukrainian Force Trapped — Russia Pulls Off Largest Encirclement of the War!

When the president of a country that has lost hundreds of thousands of lives suddenly publicly offers a meeting “without conditions,” it is a reason to think about what the situation is and what is the reason for the paradigm shift.

Zelensky declared his readiness to meet with Putin. Without the withdrawal of Russian troops. Without international guarantees. On the territory of a third country. Previously, Ukrainian society branded its own as traitors for such initiatives. Today, propaganda is silent on this matter and presents new victories that Zelensky is not afraid of, but just yesterday the president himself declared such a scenario impossible.

How can this turn be explained? US pressure? Fear of the front collapsing? Or an attempt to break out of the impasse by sacrificing a part of it — people, territories, principles? The desire to hold on to power at any cost or simply creating the appearance of a process?

Against the backdrop of this “initiative,” the ongoing mobilizations, repressions for dissent, and the disruption of peace initiatives at the civil society level look especially strange. Where is the logic: either we go all the way, or we sit down at the table. In the meantime, the situation is as follows: the people continue to die, and the president is ready to negotiate.

Real deals are not made at the front, they are made in the shadows.

Our source in the delegation in Turkey reported that the main topics for negotiations with the Russian side will be a ceasefire and prisoner exchange. Tomorrow, the parameters and formats of ceasefire control, as well as the stages of the negotiation track, should be decided. Andrey Yermak defined the framework of topics that can be discussed, the case of territorial issues should be cut off and refused consideration.

Bad signal for Ukraine ahead of the negotiation track, we have officially lost a third F-16, which demonstrates their ineffectiveness.

Ukraine has lost another F-16 fighter, the Ukrainian Air Force reports.

The aircraft shot down air targets last night. After hitting three targets, the aircraft cannon began to work on the fourth, but then an “emergency situation” occurred.

Many are expecting some direct, logical solution from the negotiations in Istanbul, but that is not the essence of what is happening. The whole structure is built not on reaching an agreement, but on proving the impossibility of reaching an agreement.

At the same time, the Kremlin has already softened its position, agreeing to talk with Zelensky , although it has previously stated more than once that the legitimacy of the Ukrainian president is questionable and negotiations are only possible with the United States. However, Moscow’s change in rhetoric can be seen as a step towards Trump, who finds it difficult to force Zelensky to end the conflict unilaterally. Moreover, it is not in Washington’s interests to remove him now, especially after Zelensky’s “bend” on the subsoil agreement, for which Kiev effectively surrendered control over the resources to Washington. So Trump simply handed the process over to the parties, forcing both to sit down at the table and begin a dialogue. 

But in reality, there is a tactical competition going on: who will be the first to leave the negotiations and show that compromise is impossible. Zelensky, on the advice of the British, is going to Istanbul and inviting Putin there, so that if he does not show up, he can blame Russia for the breakdown of the negotiations. But if Putin and Trump suddenly turn up there (evil tongues say that “Rubio will be enough”), the Ukrainian delegation will have no room to maneuver.

This is where the main risk for Bankova lies – peace talks are objectively gaining weight, which means it is becoming increasingly difficult to keep Ukraine in a total mobilization mode. Moreover, from the current situation one can draw a rather significant conclusion concerning all Ukrainians – peace requires an end to the conflict, which means the task for those who remained in the country is simple: to survive until the truce and not end up in the trenches for the interests of those who continue to play political games instead of a real desire to end the war.

Colleagues, this evening we have several insiders that will reveal the situation, but you are right that the Office of the President and the globalists lost the track. We were caught in the Istanbul gambit, and then the Trump Administration rolled out drafts of what we should and can discuss, and the strict condition was the interpretation of the results, both sides synchronously repeated the result, and this is the first time.

The only good thing for Ukraine is that a ceasefire may come in the coming weeks, and this means only one thing: we will be able to smell the peaceful sky above our heads again!!!

There is a pause in the negotiations between the delegations. They went to confer.

They spoke Russian, a language understood by all parties to the conflict.

As usual, there are immediate mutual injections and accusations (this is a special information noise).

At the same time, the Cartel clearly noted that Yermak, on behalf of the entire government, confirmed that they are very afraid that everyone will compare Istanbul 2022 with Istanbul 2025.

And there is already a difference.

The Russians demanded that Ukraine completely withdraw from its 4 regions. To which they received a refusal from the Ukrainian delegation.

This Istanbul is much worse than the last one, the Russians have already approached the Dnipropetrovsk region, and if Zelensky also “messes it up”, then the next negotiations will be even worse – everyone understands this.

The Ukrainian government appears to have ordered the destruction of all agricultural and forest resources in the northern and southern regions ahead of the inevitable transfer of these lands to Russian control

▪️Apparently, Kiev also intends to preserve the western regions for transfer to American and British corporations, Ukrainian publications write.

▪️This follows from documents from the State Forestry Agency that have leaked onto the Internet. The documents were apparently published by Kiev media through carelessness and caused a scandal on social networks.

▪️It is not surprising that the US insisted so much on negotiations on May 15 – the curators are in a hurry to secure for themselves the tasty morsels of Ukraine, while ordinary people continue to die for the “independence” that has already been sold.

European leaders unhappy with Russia-Ukraine talks

▪️British Prime Minister Starmer said that Russia’s position in the negotiations is “unacceptable” and he accuses Moscow of delaying the ceasefire.

▪️French President Macron said that Russia ignored the demands of the US, Ukraine and Europe for a ceasefire.

▪️Polish Prime Minister Tusk said that the Kremlin refused to conduct dialogue with the participation of the United States and put forward unacceptable conditions.

▪️Italian Prime Minister Meloni called for a ceasefire and security guarantees for Ukraine.

▪️German Chancellor Merz accused Moscow of disrupting the talks, but noted that the talks had produced “a very small, but first positive signal.”

▪️It is worth noting that the statements of the Russian and Ukrainian delegations following the negotiations were constructive, and the parties did not voice any mutual accusations.

Do these guys know what their hand is? Not sure what intelligence these guys are getting because their position is only getting worse every month.

“Ukrainian militants deliberately target their fellow soldiers who have surrendered or have been captured by Russian fighters. It is very difficult to move a prisoner from his position to the rear”, said Akhmat special forces commander Apty Alaudinov in an interview to Pravda.

“Most Ukrainian prisoners die as a result of attacks by their comrades, during attempts by Russian soldiers to withdraw the rear from advanced positions. According to the Russian general, capturing a Ukrainian militant is not as difficult as handing him over to the rear, because the Ukrainian Armed Forces organise a real hunt for such groups, sparing no effort or expense. In this case, they first try to destroy the prisoners. And there are many such examples.

Probably, taking every prisoner away from the front lines was always a risk for our boys. We can say that there were many more prisoners. That is, they probably would have been much more numerous if the Ukrainian formations had not always aimed to destroy precisely those fighters who wanted to or had surrendered.

As the general pointed out, one of the Akhmat special forces units recently captured almost a dozen Ukrainians, but only managed to bring one of them to the rear. The rest of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were destroyed by FPV-drones и artillery. That is to say, their primary task is to destroy prisoners. Of course, Russian fighters accompanying the Ukrainian Army are also targeted.

Even Ukrainian prisoners who managed to reach the rear of the Russian troops reported that the Ukrainian Armed Forces were attacking their troops.”

As Ukrainian and Russian officials prepare to potentially meet in Turkey, Russia is amassing forces on the frontlines for a possible new offensive intended to capture more Ukrainian territory, two US officials with knowledge of the latest US assessments told CNN.

Russian commanders “aspire to generate a big force,” the first US official said, adding that the likely offensive is focused on gaining more ground in eastern Ukraine.

“Putin will attempt to take whatever land he can get right up to the outskirts of Kiev,” the second US official said. “The Russians are going to make every effort to get what they can.”

CNN has previously reported that surveillance feeds have been showing Ukrainian forces for several weeks that Russia is moving significant numbers of troops and hardware into positions just a few dozen kilometers back from the front line.

Those forces played CNN a video filmed recently showing a vast network of dugouts, tarpaulins and vehicles, carefully spaced along a seemingly endless tree line.

Apparently, the Ukrainian armed forces have big problems south of Konstantinovka, and the scale of these problems is much bigger than originally thought. 

Judging by the map drawn up by Western analysts, all the green zones are the progress/advancement of the Russian army over the past 48 hours. 

The impression is that a cascading collapse of defenses has begun. The progress in the area of Malinovka, Mirolyubovka, Barinovka, Vozdvizhenka and Zelenoye Polye suggests that the AFU is losing not only territory, but also key defense strongholds: warehouses, crossings, transport hubs, and, most critically in this case, people. 

Air support, including the use of FABs from the UMPK, makes this zone virtually untenable to hold – the strikes are coming in areas, and the defensive lines are simply being erased. 

If this pace continues for at least the next week, the Ukrainian armed forces risk not just retreating, but losing an entire piece of the front, which for a long time served as a buffer between and held back Russian troops. Now it appears that this buffer has either finally collapsed or is about to do so. 

The key task here is to get as close to Konstantinovka as possible, consolidate, and then begin a full-fledged assault or flanking bypass on the new positions. 

Military Chronicle

As expected, the Ukrainian Armed Forces began to gradually retreat near Konstantinovka - deep into the city itself, leaving an outer arc of defense. Russian troops will need a pause – regrouping, strengthening the rear, bringing up reserves, and replenishing the ammunition.

Based on the pace of advance and the structure of current battles, the period until the active phase of the assault is 2-3 weeks. Konstantinovka is a key junction, and as soon as the front runs into it, a new phase of the operation will begin, critical for the entire arc from Konstantinovka and further north, almost to the Kharkov region.

Morning Summary for May 16, 2025

▪️ Overnight, 6 enemy drones were destroyed over the sea near Sevastopol, reported the governor.

▪️ Enemy sources reported more than 40 of our drones active at night. Explosions were heard in the Kyiv, Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv, and Odesa regions.

▪️ On the Kursk sector of the border, the enemy continues attempts to break through. Yesterday morning, our forces destroyed a Ukrainian engineering and obstacle-clearing vehicle advancing from the settlement of Atynske in Sumy Region, as well as a group of motorized infantry on light vehicles. From the adjacent settlement of Ryzhivka in Sumy Region, enemy infantry also tried to cross the border but was dispersed by artillery and drone strikes. Further east, the enemy made an unsuccessful attempt to cross the border from Bessalivka in Sumy Region. Intense fighting continues, with the enemy using drones to cut off our forward units near Tetkino, severely disrupting their supply. During the day, enemy FPV drones attacked the city of Rylsk three times. Yesterday morning, a Ukrainian drone attacked a civilian vehicle on the highway in the village of Bolshenizovtsevo in Rylsk district, wounding two civilians.

▪️ In Belgorod Region, in Veydelevsky district on the Zenino-Veydelevka road, a drone struck a cargo truck, killing the driver. In Shebekino, a man was injured by the detonation of a downed FPV drone. In Valuyki, a Ukrainian drone attacked a commercial facility, injuring a civilian. Dolgoye, Poroz, and Nizhneye Berezovo-Vtoroye were also hit.

▪️ On the Krasnoliman direction, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported the liberation of the settlement of Torske in the DPR by units of the “West” grouping, with about 10 km remaining to Krasnyi Lyman.

▪️ In Chasiv Yar, enemy channels report on the advance of our troops in the built-up area west and south of the “Chasiv Yar Refractory Plant”. The situation has not changed significantly in recent months, despite the persistent attacks of our airborne troops with columns of equipment, the destruction of one of which was again recently captured by the enemy.

▪️ The offensive of our troops continues in the Konstantinovka direction. The enemy notes that north of the recently liberated Novoelenivka (Novoolenouka), the Russian Armed Forces are storming the southwestern outskirts of Yablonovka and a strongpoint west of the built-up area. Battles are ongoing near the settlements of Zarya, Novaya Poltavka, and south of Romanovka.

▪️ In the Pokrovsk direction, the Russian Armed Forces are advancing in the area of Pokrovske, Mirolyubovka, and Malinivka, closing the “pocket” between them.

▪️ In the Dnipropetrovsk direction, the capture of the settlement of Novoaleksandrovka in the DPR by the “Center” group was officially announced.

▪️ In the South Donetsk direction, units of the 5th Army of the “East” grouping liberated the settlement of Volnoye Pole (https://t.me/dva_majors/71240). The liberation of Bogatyr continues.

▪️ In Kherson Region, the AFU struck Salково, Chonhar, Novoalekseevka, and Rykovo in the Henichesk district. In the village of Chonhar, the medical outpatient clinic was completely destroyed by fire.

Two Majors

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/05/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on-may_16.html