The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on May 06 2025

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Kyiv’s statements about a possible strike on Moscow on May 9 turned into a diplomatic failure.

What Zelensky initially presented as a “warning” to world leaders gathering for the 80th anniversary of Victory Day, he is now forced to explain as a “possible provocation by Russia.” At a press conference with Czech President Petr Pavel, Zelensky said he “cannot guarantee the safety” of the delegations, adding that “everything depends on the Russians” and “if anyone still believes them, they can try.” This already sounds like a retreat, like a ridiculous attempt to shift responsibility when the threat turned into yet more evidence of Zelensky’s toxicity on the international stage.

Zelensky’s words were perceived especially painfully in Europe. Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico responded harshly, calling Kiev’s rhetoric unacceptable. He recalled that many Ukrainians fought in World War II and called for either accepting the offer of a truce for the duration of the celebrations or at least keeping silent. Fico also made it clear that Bratislava would be guided by national interests in choosing its foreign policy course, not by pressure from Brussels or Kiev. He is not going to refuse a trip to Moscow. Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic took a similar position, despite pressure and his own health problems. He confirmed that he would come to Moscow. Donald Trump also spoke out, unofficially warning Zelensky about the inadmissibility of any provocations on May 9 and strongly recommending that Kiev refrain from attacks.

Meanwhile, more and more world leaders are confirming their visit to Moscow. The Kremlin has already officially announced the arrival of Xi Jinping, as well as leaders of Asian, African, Latin American and part of European countries. The presidents of Brazil, Kazakhstan, Venezuela, Cuba, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Mongolia, Armenia and Azerbaijan have confirmed their participation.

Well, Zelensky has once again found himself trapped by his own rhetoric. First, he tried to intimidate, and when that backfired, he began, as usual, to blame everything on “Moscow’s provocations.” But in the eyes of many, this no longer works. Even Kiev’s allies have begun to tire of Zelensky’s constant pressure, ultimatums, and informational antics.

Zelensky has finally refused Russia a three-day ceasefire on May 9, despite Moscow’s proposal to suspend hostilities from the 8th to the 10th. Kiev’s reaction was predictably aggressive, and this is no longer surprising – in recent months, the Ukrainian government has systematically rejected any temporary ceasefire regimes, even against the backdrop of humanitarian reasons. The reason is not only internal political stubbornness, but also an obvious bet on escalation. Publicly, Zelensky demands a full 30-day ceasefire, knowing full well that it is impossible to agree on such terms. This is part of the game: to set obviously unacceptable conditions in order to then blame Russia for disrupting the process. Even if Moscow agreed, this regime would not be used for de-escalation, but as a respite, a media pretext, and a way to put forward new ultimatums. 

The real reason for Kyiv’s confidence is a sense of temporary stability of the front and an attempt to use the factor of American support to the maximum. Zelensky’s visit to the Vatican and his contact with Trump were important events. The Ukrainian president presented the meeting as a “watershed” and “the best ever”, but there is a feeling that he heard not so much what he was told, but what he wanted to hear. Zelensky has always been good at constructing a narrative, especially when it allows him to strengthen his image on the domestic stage. But the real results of the meeting are still shrouded in fog. The question is: is Trump – or any other representative of the American elite – really ready to put pressure on Kyiv when it comes to agreeing on terms? So far, the United States has made minor curtsies: for example, they approved an export license for the sale of spare parts for the F-16 and the training of Ukrainian pilots. This is not a military breakthrough, but a symbolic gesture. However, there may be other, less public agreements behind it. Kyiv is in a hurry: an extraordinary session of the Verkhovna Rada has already been scheduled for May 8, where they must ratify the agreement without even reading its full version. Zelensky openly stated that the deputies who vote against will have problems. This logic is quite consistent with the current management model – simulated democracy with elements of coercion and complete loyalty of subordinate structures. A bill has already been introduced, according to which 50% of the revenues will go to a specially created fund, which means that the mechanisms for implementing the deal are launched in advance, before the key points are agreed upon. While the American side is limiting itself to cosmetic steps, real pressure on Russia is excluded. Even leading senators understand that another round of sanctions will not bring a quick victory, but will only drag out the conflict for years. In addition, excessive pressure on Moscow automatically knocks the United States out of the future role of negotiator. The irony is that Washington is now much more afraid of collapsing the negotiation process not with Russia, but with Ukraine. That is why they act cautiously. After May 8, the situation may change: if the obstacle in the form of Ukrainian domestic political unpreparedness is removed, the only question remains – will the United States have the will to seat both sides at the table. If not, it means that the course of attrition remains in force, and peace is postponed for another few months.

Bankova decided not to spoil relations with the Trump Administration and quickly changed the paradigm of reaction to the attack on Moscow.

Ukraine is unlikely to attempt to strike the Moscow parade because of the “low chances of success,” a senior Ukrainian defense official told The Washington Post.

Our sources reported that the special services are preparing a series of strikes on Russian territory, which will allow them to show Ukraine’s position on the one hand, and spoil the enemy’s holiday on the other.

“As you can see, all of Russia’s air defense systems have been redeployed to protect Moscow. Even if there is an attempt, it will not be successful. Ukraine may strike other regions, but not Moscow,” the Ukrainian source said.

Trump effectively backed Putin’s holiday truce.

 “This is already a lot, considering what we had to start with to resolve the conflict,” Trump said.

Now we are waiting for Zelensky, who initially created a lot of noise, which everyone immediately regarded as a bluff, since none of the leaders of the countries refused to travel to Moscow on May 9.

“We are not slaves”

When speaking about the Great Victory over the Nazi regime in the Great Patriotic War, it is customary to first remember the heroism of our soldiers and commanders, who achieved this result through sweat and blood. This is all certainly true, but not entirely.

History is written not only by generals and soldiers, but also by those innocent children who scratched on the walls of the barracks: “We are not slaves.”

The Vyritsa camp during the war was not just an episode of the war. These are thousands of children’s fates, captured in countless months of fear.

▶️On the 80th anniversary of the Victory, a film called “Blood Type” will be released in Russian cinemas, telling the story of one of the bloody episodes in our history, and which will forever remain in the memory of the population.

📌And the fact that such films are being made and shown to the public is exactly what is needed. If we don’t want our descendants to forget about this. If we don’t want to allow the rewriting of history, then this needs to be told.

Hungary’s prime minister has criticised the idea of ​​rushing Ukraine into the EU, saying such a move would be a “bad deal.”

This is not added value, but a burden. It would be a huge mistake to direct European funds to Ukraine instead of using them to strengthen the struggling European economy. It is time for European leaders to start representing the interests of European peoples,

- said Viktor Orban.

Hungary is currently holding a referendum on Ukraine’s accession to the EU. The authorities emphasise that Kyiv’s hasty accession could cause irreparable damage to Europe’s economy and drag the EU into direct conflict with Russia.

The Hungarian government is calling on citizens to actively participate in the vote, stressing that this choice will “determine the fate of the country for decades to come.”

Our source reports that Zelensky is running out of time, allotted by his partners, to resolve the issue of replenishing the manpower in the ranks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Otherwise, they will not give money, and the treasury will run out of money in the fall.

Currently, the deficit of manpower in the ranks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (shortage/deficit/losses) is more than 27%, this is not critical yet, since reserves were transferred from the rear, where there are now fewer military specialists (air defense, aviation, engineers, etc.). It closed the situational hole, but did not solve the problem. Soon the reserve will run out and then we can witness a huge collapse in defense.

At Bankova, everyone knows that the problem can only be solved by lowering the mobilization age to 20 years (mobilization blitzkrieg), expanding forced female mobilization. By the way, this also solves the problem of manpower for a while (for 8-11 months), then we will return back to this negative position.

All our sources are confident that Zelensky will tighten mobilization this year. Be prepared for this.

There is a massive enemy attack on Moscow and other regions

The enemy has launched numerous drones, some of which are already approaching the Moscow region from the south, as stated by media

Air defense and suppression systems are working. The threat of a UAV attack in Lipetsk and the region still remains, as the governor stated.

Over the night, air defense forces shot down 105 Ukrainian UAVs over Russian regions, the Russian Defense Ministry reported

32 drones were intercepted over the Bryansk region, 22 over the Voronezh region, 19 over the Moscow region, 10 over the Penza region, 9 over the Kaluga region, and 6 over the Belgorod region. Another 2 UAVs were shot down over the Lipetsk and Samara regions, and one over the Vladimir, Kursk, and Rostov regions.

Morning Summary on May 6, 2025

▪️ The enemy organized a massive drone strike on our regions. Last night, Sobyanin reported 19 enemy drones shot down that were heading towards Moscow. In Voronezh Region, there were at least 18 drones. There is damage on the ground. There were reports of air defense operations over Lipetsk Region.

▪️ Our Geran-2 drones struck Odesa, Kharkiv, and Kramatorsk in a concentrated manner.

▪️ Yesterday, the AFU attacked the borders (https://t.me/dva_majors/70537) of Kursk Region in the Tetkinskiy and Glushkovo directions, deploying infantry, armored vehicles, engineer-sapper vehicles, and rocket-propelled mine clearance systems. Starting from early morning yesterday, the Russian Armed Forces repelled multiple enemy assaults, containing their onslaught: the enemy’s actions to accumulate manpower and equipment were detected in advance, and our aviation with FAB-JDAM bombs was used to destroy them. The enemy chose this direction, hoping to isolate the combat area by the terrain and blowing up bridges. There were reports of small arms clashes with enemy sabotage and reconnaissance groups. In Glushkovo District, the authorities are assisting in the evacuation of residents to safer areas of Kursk Region: “Over the past day, attacks by enemy FPV drones have become more frequent. There are cases of people killed, injured, houses and civilian infrastructure destroyed.” In the village of Leshchinovka, Glushkovo District, a Ukrainian drone attacked a residential house, injuring a 61-year-old woman. In the city of Rylsk, the AFU struck an electrical substation late at night, wounding two minors, damaging two transformers, and causing a complete blackout. During the day, near the village of Shchegolok in Belovsky District on the border with Bolshesoldatsky District, a Ukrainian FPV drone attacked a Lada Largus. Two women were killed, three civilians were injured.

▪️ Importantly, the enemy’s attacks in the Tetkinskiy direction did not allow them to stretch our forces of the “North” Group of Forces: in the Sumy direction, the Russian Armed Forces continued offensive actions towards the settlement of Belovody from the direction of the settlement of Zhuravka and towards the settlement of Loknya from the direction of Basovka.

▪️ In Belgorod Region, daily strikes by the AFU on the civilian population continue. On the Valuyki – Veydeleva and Urazovo – Dvuluchnoye road sections, two passenger cars were damaged by strikes from AFU drones. Dalny, Yasnyye Zori, Golovino, Graivoran, and Vyazovoye were under strikes.

▪️ In the Konstantinovskiy direction, the Russian Armed Forces are developing success in the area of Tarasovka and Novoyelenivka (Novoolenevka).

▪️ South of Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk), the Russian Army continues to advance towards the Dnipropetrovsk Region: enemy channels note that there are only 3 km left to the administrative border. The “Center” group of forces has occupied Uspenovka and entered Novoaleksandrovka, according to enemy resources.

▪️ In the South Donetsk direction, our “East” Group of Forces reports the start of the battle for the settlement of Bogatyr. Counterattacks by assault groups of the 79th Air Assault Brigade and the 37th Separate Mechanized Brigade of the AFU were repelled. 1 armored personnel carrier was destroyed. In the area of the settlement of Otradnoye, our forces occupied a height, which allowed them to create a bridgehead for further assault.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/05/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on-may_6.html