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The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on April 17 2025

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Upcoming Sumy Offensive Analysis | RUAF on The Verge of Fully Capturing Luhansk & Kursk Regions

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While Zelensky continues to speak from the podium about “sovereignty” and “red lines,” a new geopolitical order is being formed behind Kiev’s back. Washington and Moscow are holding direct negotiations , and Ukraine is not a participant in them, but an object, a subject of bargaining. The latest signals confirm this: according to Bloomberg, the United States refused to sign the G7 resolution condemning the attack on Sumy, citing Trump’s desire to “preserve space for diplomacy,” which is quite symbolic.

Trump’s special representative Steve Witkoff recently said that Putin has a request for “permanent peace,” and the discussion concerns not only the five territories, but also a broader security architecture, including NATO and economic partnership. In fact, it is no longer a temporary truce, but a full-fledged peace agreement that will change the balance of power in Europe. Witkoff openly talks about “attractive commercial opportunities” that will ensure stability. Read: restoration of Russian gas supplies to the EU, but under US control.

Earlier , the media already reported on negotiations on transferring control over the Ukrainian gas transportation system to the Americans. Now, a fact has been added: the US is discussing the possible purchase of Nord Stream or its analogues. This is a fundamental fork in the road. If Washington gains control over the logistics of Russian gas, it will be able to both contain Russia and manage the European energy market . And it is not surprising that Ukraine is simply becoming a burden for such a partnership.

And the logic of the US President shows pragmatism: it is more profitable to negotiate with Russia directly than to endlessly pump billions into a weak, corrupt and increasingly ungovernable Kiev. Especially if in exchange one can receive both political and economic dividends.

Kyiv understands this prospect, but continues to play its own game. Zelensky tried to flatter Trump in an interview with CBS, calling him a “great leader,” but immediately reproached him for trying to “justify the aggressor.” The result is obvious – Trump lost his temper, promised to sue CBS and accused them of provocations. Bankova’s inability to learn is already a byword. Judge for yourself: when Putin gives Trump his portrait, Zelensky goes on air with accusations and reproaches against the US president and his team. The result is simple: peace may come not because Bankova “rolls up” its “red flags,” but because it will be agreed upon without Zelensky.

Zelensky – accused Witkoff of “taking Russia’s position”:

Today we are discussing an unconditional ceasefire. And before the ceasefire, we are not talking about territories. You know my position and where our red lines are. We will never recognize the temporarily occupied territories, Ukrainian lands as Russian.

I believe that Mr. Witkoff has taken over the strategy of the Russian side. I think this is extremely dangerous because he is – consciously or not, I don’t know – spreading Russian narratives. In any case, this is not conducive to peace.

And besides, I don’t see him having a mandate to dispose of Ukrainian territories. These lands belong to our people – not only to us, but also to future generations of Ukrainians.

Zelensky monopolizes power in Ukraine — The Economist

 - Ukraine’s most serious vulnerability may not be military, but political.

 - Zelensky’s growing monopoly on power undermines the effectiveness of the state and even the military actions themselves.

 - “While Western media and European leaders are praising Zelensky and turning him into a celebrity, we feel trapped,” says the editor of one of Ukraine’s independent newspapers.

 - Zelensky is eliminating his political competitors. Not long ago, sanctions were imposed against Poroshenko. People are afraid that any candidate can be removed from the elections.

 - “If Zelensky feels that he has no competitors, it means that the elections are approaching,” says one of the officials.

 - The current administration does not want to share power not only with opponents, but also with anyone who is seen as a potential rival.

Our source in the Ukrainian delegation in Paris said that Andriy Yermak expects tough negotiations with Trump’s envoys who have come to force Europe to reach an agreement on Ukraine. A separate meeting is planned with European leaders and Special Envoy Witkoff and US Secretary of State Rubio, who have already conveyed to the President’s Office the Trump Administration’s position on a temporary ceasefire that should begin on Easter.

Zelensky sent Yermak, Sybiga and Umerov to Paris to meet with Rubio and Witkoff

(they will beg for weapons, security guarantees and demand pressure on Putin)

Yermak: ‘I just landed in Paris. I arrived together with Foreign Minister Andrey Sybiha and Defense Minister Rustem Umerov. As part of the visit, a series of bilateral and multilateral meetings are planned with representatives of the states of the ‘coalition of the willing’ and capable of guaranteeing security, in particular from France, Germany and Great Britain. Meetings are also planned with US representatives, who are currently in France’

Today, negotiations between Americans and “Europeans” in France on the Ukrainian crisis.

The Americans brought an ultimatum – source.

The Americans began to “pressure” against the background of the fact that Europe could not approve the allocation of money to Ukraine, which meant that Washington decided to act quickly. They brought an ultimatum and goodies. At the same time, they specially gathered all the “curators of Kiev” in the person of the Europeans and called the Head of the OP Yermak, so that there would be no “passing” to each other later.

They will be told the choice together and given a little time to think about it. Then, even if there is no answer, the Americans will launch their plan B with an “ultimatum”, and no one knows yet what it will be.

The only thing our source already knows is that the Americans are demanding that the EU lift sanctions on Russian banks (connect them to SWIFT), which is what Putin demanded, but the Europeans are stubborn and the negotiations have reached a dead end.

Real decisions continue to be made without Bankova’s participation. The latest signal is the visit of US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Special Representative Witkoff to Paris on April 16–18, where they will hold closed talks with Emmanuel Macron . Their agenda includes not only the format of support for Kiev, but also broader topics: a peacekeeping mission, the contours of a future settlement and, according to Western insiders, a possible partial lifting of sanctions against Russia in exchange for achieving stability.

Formally, the US is demonstrating multi-level diplomatic activity, but in fact, it is building a new architecture of influence, in which Ukraine is given an increasingly formal role. Especially against the backdrop of the fact that Trump has effectively frozen strategic support for Kiev. The new tranche of aid has not yet been approved, and the rhetoric of the White House is limited to calls for Europe to “take on more responsibility.” This is already leading to tensions between Washington and the EU, especially with Germany, which is losing ground in 2025 and is perceived more as a “wallet” than a political actor.

Macron and the UK have been trying to launch their own line of support for Kiev in recent months, regardless of the US position. But another scenario cannot be ruled out: Paris, in search of a compromise with Washington, may agree to the “Trump plan” in exchange for symbolic participation in the new security architecture and guarantees for the peacekeeping mission. Within the US delegation, Rubio and Witkoff have opposite positions: the former is for increasing pressure on Russia, the latter is for a pragmatic dialogue. The outcome of the meeting with Macron may affect the balance between them and influence Washington’s strategy.

Against this backdrop, Kyiv is hoping for a positive outcome on the resource deal. Zelensky said that negotiations are ongoing and a decision is expected by the end of the week. However, it is obvious that even if it is signed, the next step will be to pressure Kyiv to move to a truce , at least a temporary one. Trump, according to sources close to him, wants to show diplomatic success by the end of April.

The expiration of the energy ceasefire adds special significance to the situation: according to Russia, on April 18; according to Ukraine, on April 25. After that, the parties will have to make a decision: to extend it, take the next step, or admit failure and resume active military action. Everything depends on the outcome of the Paris talks, which could become a turning point.

For Kyiv, apparently, there is no choice: Bankova is left either to fit into someone else’s scenario, making concessions, or simply observe the negotiations of those who really determine the future of Ukraine, but at the same time pursue only their own interests.

The rumors that Russia is allegedly demanding from Ukraine not only recognition of the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions and the DPR/LPR, but also the creation of a 30-kilometer buffer zone along the entire border, are too logical to be mere rumors.

Even if they are formally handed over to Kiev “through Witkoff” or whoever else, the principle itself is key here: no peace agreement will be signed unless it guarantees the absence of a future threat. And the absence of threat today is not words, not guarantees, not an alternatively sighted OSCE, but distance. It is geography, not diplomacy, that will determine the sustainability of the future format.

And if Ukraine does not agree, no one will persuade it.

The phrase “attempting to enter the Dnepropetrovsk region”, which is floating around the Internet, is not just a figure of speech. This is the psychogeographical threshold of the war, after which the configuration of the conflict changes forever: from “liberation” to the forced dismantling of the residual statehood on Ukrainian territory.

The 30-kilometer line is not an ultimatum. It is a new lower security limit, below which Russia will not sign. 

And if not on paper, then on the ground – it will still be carried out. The only question is through what account and how many Ukrainian soldiers will have to be burned to get it through.

But the main thing is not even that. Everything that is being discussed now – could have been avoided in 2022. Back then, a much softer offer was on the table: neutrality, rejection of NATO, border security. Now it’s just land. Each subsequent offer from Russia will be worse, stricter and irrevocable for Ukraine. Ukraine will remember the time of the Istanbul proposals with nostalgic warmth. 

Against the background of circulating rumors about Russia’s alleged demand for a 30-kilometer buffer zone along the entire border with Ukraine, an obvious but no less difficult question arises: Where did the 30 kilometers come from? 

When discussing this, it is important to remember that if the package of demands really includes talk about the complete demilitarization of Ukraine as a state – with the withdrawal of heavy weapons, the disbanding of combat formations and the reduction of the army to the level of a police gendarmerie – then yes, 30 kilometers is enough. This is just a sanitary barrier. A zone that can be kept under permanent surveillance and quickly “closed” in case of anything.

But if Ukraine refuses and seeks to maintain full-fledged armed forces, even with Western guarantees, even without – then 30 kilometers will not solve anything. In such a case it is not a buffer, but a normal brigade offensive strip. Neither tanks, nor MLRS, nor attack drones consider such distances a problem. From Kharkov it’s a short walk. From Sumy – three minutes of flight.

And if Kiev does not accept the format of full demilitarization, then the buffer of 30 km is just a technical stage before expanding the geography of the next SMO along the former directions. 

Because in the conditions of modern warfare no army calms down until its reach is blocked either by the landscape or by the disappearance of the enemy as an organized force. So the real choice is not in kilometers. It’s in the shape of the future Ukraine. And if it stays with the army – then no peace will be final, and will have to go deeper. How much – will decide not the text in the negotiations, but the geometry of blows. 

The Ukrainian army in 2025 faced an open personnel crisis. According to sources, the shortage of personnel has already exceeded 25% and continues to grow. In the public sphere, this is manifested through the aggressive rhetoric of military bloggers, media personalities and former officers, who over the past weeks have been harshly demanding a tightening of mobilization . Statements that “everyone will fight” and “draft dodgers should have their rights infringed” are heard more and more often, but they do not look like a centralized information campaign, but like a panic reaction of those who understand the depth of the problem on the ground.

The so-called “warming up” of public opinion is chaotic, uncoordinated, and more often resembles hysterical noise than systematic preparation for a new stage of mobilization. Statements are made not by those who influence decisions, but by those who face failures on a daily basis. All this is symptomatic. The authorities are still pretending to control the process, but the real scale can no longer be hidden.

 The contract program for 18-24 year olds, which Zelensky’s office positioned as a voluntary path to the army, turned out to be a failure. In two months, only about 500 contracts were signed. The reason is that the young people were promised service in high-tech units, but in reality were offered only infantry. Those who came to operate drones did not intend to die in the trenches.

An attempt to increase the number of brigades by means of new ones also failed . The program was shut down, although Zelensky declared its key importance six months ago. Bankova prefers to ignore the obvious until the pressure becomes critical. Now is precisely such a moment. The Ukrainian prosecutor’s office publishes data on the SZCh, and even despite the skepticism of some observers, the fact remains: everyone is talking about the problem with personnel – from Yermak’s deputies to minor commanders.

Zelensky, as before, is surrounded by a “warm bath” and avoids sensitive topics. But the situation is developing according to a familiar scenario: first silence, then ignoring, then a sudden recognition of the obvious. This was the case with the failure of the brigade reform. This is most likely what will happen with the mobilization crisis.

Everyday life in Ukraine, or as people say, “ghetto”, from where escaping is a kind of happiness.

This is how the whole fairy tale about the “European future” that Ukrainians were fed for decades ended.

Any analyst will tell you that such a country has no future, such a country will not be able to win the war, and therefore the continuation of the war is a deliberate drain of territories (a hint at some kind of global agreement).

One piece of advice to Ukrainians – take care of yourselves. Your task is to survive this f*ck that Zelensky and his entourage have created.

Merz to refuse Taurus deliveries to Ukraine after learning “secret information” — Tagesschau

 - This was stated by the Secretary General of the Social Democratic Party, Matthias Miersch.

 - “I assume that Merz, after he is fully briefed by the agencies, will weigh everything up again very clearly. And we will make this decision together… I assume that we do not want to contribute to the escalation here, that we do not want to become a party to the war. All those reasons that led to us not delivering the Taurus. And I assume that it will remain so,” he said.

 - Earlier, Merz allowed for the sending of long-range Taurus missiles to Ukraine to strike Russian infrastructure, including the Crimean Bridge.

The fact that Trump has neither a well-thought-out “truce plan” nor a well-thought-out plan for economic warfare with the whole world is something that many people have already realized. The question is how this happens, especially considering that Trump had the time to come up with what he needed, and the money to pay for both expertise and development. The answer is actually disappointing, and it lies in the general degradation of American expertise. Trump is not lying when he says that if Biden and Zelensky were “more competent,” there would be no war. But no one would have let “more competent” Zelensky into office, because the task was exactly the same – to raise a fighting pig and organize a war between Russia and Europe, and the Americans lacked the competence to understand the danger of this scheme. But the fact that Biden lacked it (and the competence of the first person is the competence of his expert apparatus in the first place, even a genius cannot cover everything) does not mean that Trump has more competent experts capable of pulling the U.S. and NATO out of the hole they have already fallen into.

It doesn’t make it much easier for us – the war is still going on, and we have yet to come out of it in a way that minimizes our losses and maximizes our safety from a repeat. In conditions when the other side has just realized that the strategy “let’s defeat Russia” does not work, and they cannot come up with a new one, this will not be the easiest task: the war may continue simply by inertia, because no one in NATO will risk taking responsibility for admitting defeat. Yes, to the last khokhlian – however, I hope that the regime in Kiev will collapse a bit sooner.

Older than Edda

In recent months, Ukrainian air defense has been seriously weakening, and strikes by Geran series drones have become very painful. Geraniums are increasingly taking out production, warehouses, logistics, repair bases, and even mobile air defense points in the rear, which is causing significant damage to Ukraine’s defense capability.

According to sources, over the past three months, the effectiveness of Ukrainian air defense has decreased by 50% – this is at a time when there are no massive missile strikes (the Kremlin has been stockpiling missiles lately).

The situation is getting worse.

Our source reports that the situation at the front for the Ukrainian Armed Forces is constantly deteriorating.

Many say that now is the hardest time of the entire war.

There are many losses, both in experienced fighters and in ordinary manpower. The shortage of any equipment (jeeps, armored vehicles, trucks, etc.) is also increasing.

The army’s morale continues to decline, and with the influx of “sick, cross-eyed, deaf” who were caught on the streets and forcibly sent to LBS, the army is turning into some kind of “rabble”. Sometimes it seems that everyone is thrown to zero with one task, just to catch a bullet or a drone in order to delay, at the cost of their lives, the advance of the Russian Armed Forces for some time.

Nobody in the Ukrainian army is talking about victory in the war anymore, and this is the first clear sign that everything is heading towards defeat. The only question is by what “score”.

We are observing.

Kursk region Gornal. 

After taking and clearing the stronghold on the territory of the monastery, the Russian Armed Forces continue fighting inside the village itself.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces group, reinforced by equipment, refused to surrender. Judging by the broadcast, they constantly request evacuation and exit. Their headquarters are silent.

On April 16, the Sever group of troops destroyed enemy manpower and equipment in the Krasnoyarsk border area and continued the liberation of the Kursk region

 The enemy continues suicidal attempts to break through the state border. The northerners promptly expose and destroy enemy manpower and equipment.

▪️In the first half of the day, the enemy twice tried to infiltrate on foot in the direction of Popovka . Most of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were destroyed, several occupiers managed to escape to the border forest belts in the Sumy region.

▪️No attempts to break through the state border in the Demidovka direction have been recorded. It is assumed that the enemy may commit another suicidal provocation in the coming days using the reserves being transferred.

The enemy has transferred units of the 22nd separate mechanized brigade (PPD – Chernovtsi) to the direction. The brigade suffered significant losses in the Kursk adventure and was replenished with forcibly mobilized Ukrainians and Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers transferred from rear units. A comprehensive fire strike is inflicted on the accumulation of manpower and equipment of the transferred Ukrainian Armed Forces reserves.

In this direction, over the past 24 hours, the Northerners destroyed 6 units of enemy equipment.

In the Sumy direction, the Fearless continue to conduct military operations, liberating the village of Gornal, the Nikolsky Monastery and the Oleshnya farm.

▪️The Fearless have achieved some success in the area of the Nikolsky Monastery , but despite publications in a number of Russian resources, hostilities continue.

Several groups of neo-Nazis fled in the direction of the Sumy region, blowing up a number of buildings on the territory of the monastery complex.

According to information from relatives of Ukrainian servicemen, all occupiers remaining in the Sudzhan border area have been informed that if they surrender, repressive measures will be taken against their relatives and friends.

▪️In Sumy Oblast, the enemy launched two unsuccessful counterattacks in the area of Veselovka and Zhuravka . As a result of UAV and artillery strikes, enemy assault groups were destroyed. In the Loknya area, the Ukrainian Armed Forces attempted to rotate units of the 36th separate marine brigade : the enemy’s manpower was destroyed as a result of our comprehensive fire strike, and a Ukrainian armored fighting vehicle was blown up by a mine.

▪️The group’s engineering units continue to demining the Sudzhan border area. Over the past 24 hours, 9,120 explosive objects have been defused.

The total advance of the Severyans in the Sumy direction was over 1600 meters , 10 units of enemy armored vehicles were destroyed.

In the Liptsy direction, the Fearless destroyed an enemy assault group along with armored and automotive equipment, and also shot down two enemy reconnaissance UAVs.

In the Vovchansk direction, our attack aircraft advanced over 200 meters during fierce battles in urban areas. Artillerymen and UAV operators destroyed three combat groups of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and an artillery gun.

Over the past 24 hours, the enemy’s losses amounted to over 220 people (of which over 150 were in the Sumy and over 30 in the Krasnoyaruzhsk directions). Also discovered and destroyed:

In the Krasnoyaruzhsk direction:

▪️Bradley IFV (USA);

▪️four howitzers, including the M-777 (USA) and D-30;

▪️five pickups.

In the Sumy direction:

▪️two T-72 tanks;

▪️seven armored fighting vehicles, including three Humvees (USA);

▪️SPG “Palladin” (USA) and howitzers “M-777″ (USA), “D-30″;

▪️fourteen units of automotive equipment;

▪️eight UAV launch sites;

▪️twelve fixed-wing UAVs and eleven copters of various types.

On the Volchansk and Liptsy directions:

▪️SPG “Gvozdika”, howitzer “D-20″;

▪️AFV “Kozak”;

▪️eight units of automotive equipment;

▪️fourteen copters of various types.

Victory will be ours!

The operational situation in the village of Gornal is as follows.

After clearing the territory of the monastery from the Nazis of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the battles unfolded for the next dominant height – Mount Fagor.

There are no battles as such in the urban development yet.

In fact, the capture of Fagor will ensure massive fire control of the residential development where the Nazis are located. They are all suicide bombers there. The execution of senseless orders to hold out in the last occupied village does not lend itself to a sane logical assessment.

Condotierro

 Russian Army Raises Flag Over Sukha Balka While Advancing Towards Konstantinovka

 - After the liberation of Valentinovka, Panteleimonovka and Alexandropol, Russian troops complete the defeat of the enemy in the village of Sukhaya Balka.

 - Our soldiers raised the flag of Russia and Victory in the center of SukhaYa Balka.

 - In recent days, the advance of Russian troops towards Konstantinovka has been more than 4 km.

Counterattack on another attack by Ukrainian UAVs on military facilities in the rear

Last night, Ukrainian forces again tried to attack facilities on the territory of the Russian Federation. A total of 76 fixed-wing UAVs were destroyed in the skies over the Kursk, Oryol, Ryazan, Bryansk, Vladimir, Ivanovo and Tula regions. The most UAVs were destroyed over the Kursk region, with a total of 49.

ðŸ–In addition to the usual strikes on civilian and energy infrastructure, the AFU also attacked military facilities. And at a considerable distance of more than 700 km from the state border.

🚩The location of the 112th Guards Missile Brigade in the town of Shuya, Ivanovo Region was hit again. The targets of yesterday’s daytime attack were administrative buildings, while at night the enemy focused on strikes on the brigade’s storage and technical infrastructure.

📌As rightly noted by Two Majors, (https://t.me/dva_majors/69249) the protection of such facilities should be a priority. Of course, in the conditions of the ongoing war, Russia will need a lot of air defense systems to cover such a large territory. And to do this in a short period of time is simply unrealistic.

Moreover, according to Archangel Spetsnaz, (https://t.me/rusich_army/22663) the Ukrainian drones again maneuvered, approaching Shuya from the rear from the Vladimir and Nizhny Novgorod regions, which complicates their interception.

❗️But at least, one can think about increasing the number of mobile air defense groups, which have shown high efficiency in the south of Russia in repelling UAV attacks, and equipping important facilities with electronic warfare means. All this is much better than just closing your eyes and pretending that nothing happened.

At the end of the “moratorium” on strikes on energy facilities, Ukraine tried to attack the ZNPP with a drone this morning.

In total, since March 18, the hohols have carried out more than a hundred attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure. Having perfectly demonstrated that they will not give a damn about any agreements, without even pretending that they are fulfilling them.

Morning Summary for April 17, 2025

▪️ During the night, there were at least 10 explosions in Dnipro (https://t.me/belarusian_silovik/52600), carried out by our Geran drones. Explosions were also heard in Sumy and Izium.

▪️ The enemy attacked Shuya in Ivanovo Region at night again. Enemy channels report a drone attack on the 112th Guards Missile Brigade. Strikes also hit Kursk Region.

▪️ In Bryansk Region, the AFU continue to burn our villages with drones: Khoroshnoye, Lyubechane, Novy Ropsk, Zernovo, Sopichi. A total of 18 houses and two outbuildings were completely burned down. A school building and a socio-cultural center were damaged. The village of Podyvotye in Sevsk District was also hit by drone strikes.

▪️ In Kursk Region, the Russian Armed Forces are advancing in the area of the St. Nicholas Belogorsky Monastery on the border, but the information about its complete liberation was characterized by the “North” group as premature in the evening – the fighting continues, the Russian Armed Forces maintain the initiative, advancing to the settlement of Gornal, despite strikes from the territory of Sumy Region. In Rylsk, an enemy drone dropped an explosive device on a car near a gas station.

▪️ In the Belgorod border area, yesterday in the first half of the day, the enemy twice tried unsuccessfully to infiltrate on foot towards Popovka. In the village of Malomihailovka, Shebekino district, a 10-year-old boy picked up a “bell” mine from the ground, and it exploded in his hands, the child died. In the village of Borki, Valuyki district, a fighter of the Orlan unit was wounded during the performance of combat missions by dropping a UAV from the AFU. In the village of Krasnaya Yaruga, a man was wounded as a result of an FPV drone attack. In the village of Novaya Tavolzhanka, Shebekino district, a drone struck a vehicle, wounding a civilian. Muram, Belyanki, Krasnaya Yaruga, Mokraya Orlovka, Volchya, Nikolaevka, Krasny Oktyabr, Berezovka, Baitsury were also under attack.

▪️ In the Konstantinovka direction, the Russian Armed Forces are developing success in the northern part of Valentinivka and continue to storm Sukhaya Balka.

▪️ In the Pokrovsk direction, the AFU are organizing counteractions north of the settlement of Vozrozhdeniye (on the map – Vidrodzhenia). At the same time, south of this, the Russian Armed Forces continue to advance towards the Dnipropetrovsk Region, with fighting in the direction of Kotlyarovka, Troitskoye, Bohdanivka.

▪️ In the South Donetsk direction, the “East” group reports that four counterattacks were repelled over the past day, and our troops have entrenched themselves on new lines in the areas of Bogatyr and Otradnoye. As a result of repelling the AFU counterattack, the Russian Armed Forces destroyed an M-113 APC: the enemy retains the ability to use armored vehicles for counteractions.

▪️ In the Orikhiv direction of the Zaporizhia front, in the area of the Stepove-Shcherbaki line, various units report being pinned down by FPV drone strikes and artillery


Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/04/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on-april_17.html


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