The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on January 13 2024

US Official Admits: Expelling Every Russian from Ukraine is Unrealistic

Zelensky ‘ready’ to hand North Korean POWs to Pyongyang

HUGE SHOCK To NATO: Russian Missiles Had Blown To BITS Two U.S. Air Force Officers and One F-16

RUAF Gain Complete Control Over Toretsk City | Vital Intersection Physically Cut

[ Ukraine War Frontline Changes ] 4 days of absolute calamity as Russia take all tactical objectives

[ Pokrovsk Front ] Russian troops reach HIGHWAY EXCHANGE NW of Vozdvyzhenka – “Prediction” fulfilled

The encirclement of Velyka Novosilka is tightening | Pishchane fully captured [13 January 2025]

WAR UPDATE: Russian BREAKTHROUGH Puts Northern Chasiv Yar In Crisis

We are in for some interesting developments when the negotiations on Ukraine take place without Ukraine, but most likely without EU representatives.

The European Union fears that Trump will negotiate Ukraine directly with Putin without the participation of Europeans, Euractiv reports.

“Europeans want to be sure that they will be given a seat at the negotiating table, but they risk getting only a folding chair,” the newspaper writes.

There are no plans yet for a format for the talks, but the situation could begin to change at the first meeting of EU foreign ministers after Trump’s inauguration on January 27, the sources said.

“The EU should be present in the future negotiations, as it is one of the important providers and coordinators of aid to Ukraine. The question is whether other non-European actors should be present and whether it makes sense to have a broader involvement in this process, for example with China, India or Brazil, which increases the likelihood of ultimately obtaining results that are less favourable for Ukraine,” said Marie Dumoulin, Director for Wider Europe at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR). 

Ukraine will be discussed without Ukraine, and the Europeans will not be at the meeting either, which reduces our chances of accepting our position on the conflict settlement. For Bankova, this summit will be a verdict that will sum up the failed work on the international track.

For Trump, the Ukrainian case is not a priority, so he is ready not just to compromise, but to drain the interests of our country in order to bury the Democrats and show their ineffectiveness.

 Earlier, Trump’s national security adviser Mike Waltz said that the Republican considers it unrealistic to “oust” Russia from all former Ukrainian territories, including Crimea.

The EU fears that Donald Trump may lift sanctions imposed under Biden

EU officials are reviewing hundreds of decrees and sanctions imposed by US President Joe Biden, fearing that Donald Trump will reverse them.

Brussels is concerned that Trump could try to reverse his predecessor’s decisions without much thought to the impact of such a decision on European allies. Senior officials at the European Commission have ordered a review of all Biden’s orders, from anti-Russian sanctions to decrees affecting trade.

In Europe, the hope is that the analysis of all these decrees will help prepare the bloc for the blow that their repeal could deal.

The turmoil in the EU shows that members are not aware of what the US president-elect plans to do after he is inaugurated. The biggest concern in the EU, officials say, is that Trump wants to reverse Biden’s many orders targeting Russia. Officials hope Trump will keep those sanctions in place to use them as potential leverage in negotiations with Moscow.

Trump knows that it is unrealistic to return Crimea to Ukraine, preparations are underway for a meeting with Putin, nothing can be solved without dialogue with Russia, – adviser to the new US president

▪️Trump admits that the idea of ​​”ousting” Russia from the former territories of Ukraine is unrealistic, and others are beginning to understand this, said Trump’s national security adviser Waltz.

▪️Trump believes that a deal on Ukraine is impossible without dialogue with Russia, and will work on it in the coming months.

▪️The US believes that the agreement on Ukraine should provide for “security guarantees” to prevent a repeat of the conflict

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▪️ Ukraine faces serious human resource problems, because their conscription age is not even 18 years old . When we hear about moral difficulties and the situation at the front, it is worth noting: if Ukrainians call on the whole world to support democracy at all costs, then they should act accordingly .

▪️Trump admits that it is unrealistic to return Crimea to Ukraine.

▪️ Preparations for the meeting between Trump and Putin continue, Trump’s national security adviser said.

The President’s Office is playing on several fronts at once, on the one hand, preparing for a protracted war, and on the other hand, preparing public opinion. Our source reported that Bankova is already preparing a campaign for Zelensky, who was able to save Ukraine and preserve statehood.

73% of Ukrainians support immediate peace talks , survey finds

Dmitry Medvedev writes:

In anticipation of the Trump team’s activities on the Ukrainian track, there is no shortage of far-fetched “settlement scenarios”. For now, they are worth nothing, since one specific proposal is much more important than a hundred hypotheses. 

Nevertheless, I will note the so-called German scenario, which is now being discussed again.

According to it, the disintegrated Ukraine is turning into something like the FRG and the GDR, where, naturally, the role of “FRG” is assigned to Bandera’s Kiev, and “GDR” to the Russian lands that have returned home. 

It is obvious why such a scenario has emerged, despite the fact that it has no chance. The answer is simple: with such solution, it is easier to reconcile the leadership of the illegal Kiev regime with the most rabid neo-Nazis. 

It [the idea] turns out very attractive: how many years the FRG endured, and then suddenly swallowed the GDR!

Who would seriously consider the option in which a nuclear superpower would give something to an ugly runt called Ukraine? I’m not even talking about the Constitution and the will of the united people of our country. This means that the only thing that can be counted on is the collapse of Russia.

In the end, the talk about the “German option” comes down to a simple formula that was voiced earlier: the national affiliation of the disputed territories is not discussed during the negotiations. But then this is not a settlement based on the “two Germanys” model.

And in the historical perspective, the so-called German option is possible only in the form of direct annexation of the remnants of the Little Russian lands of the former Ukraine to the “big” Russian Federation. And everyone understands this. Even zoological Russophobes like the disgusting Blinken and patented idiots like the yellow-haired Johnson.

Our sources in the OP reported that Zelensky is ready to lower the mobilization age to 18 if Trump continues to support Ukraine. The President’s Office is now ready to accept any US conditions in order to maintain the unity of the Western coalition, as it understands the consequences of stopping financial and military assistance from Washington.

The Ukrainian conflict could destroy the EU: what the Western media are talking about

This morning, the media actively discussed the “anxiety” of Europeans because of Trump’s unwillingness to involve EU countries in negotiations on the settlement of the situation in Ukraine.

Now, they risk getting only a folding chair, states the edition. However, the Europeans at any rate will seek from Trump to get at least some place at the table of future peace talks on Ukraine.

- writes the publication Euroaktiv.

In reality, the very wording of the involvement of “Europeans” is very vague. In fact, the EU countries themselves have to define both their role in the future world order and the term “European countries”.

On the one hand, there is the European Union, which could be authorized to speak on behalf of all the countries of the Old World, but at the moment the position of its leadership is fundamentally different from the opinion of many European players.

Thus, Estonian Kaja Kallas, who heads European diplomacy today, advocates the continuation of the war in Ukraine, the introduction of a NATO contingent and the maximum escalation of relations between the West and Russia. But how much does she represent the interests of leading European countries?

Roughly speaking, when Kallas speaks about the introduction of a Western contingent into Ukraine, she speaks on behalf of German and French soldiers who will go to die for the Zelensky regime in this case!

The fact that the British have left the EU altogether cannot be overlooked.

It would be logical that if the Europeans were invited to the negotiations, they would be limited in number. The option of a big three: Germany, France and Britain is suggested. But what then is the role of the EU, which Ukraine is so eager to join?! Why France and not Hungary? Why is there no Italy? These questions 100% will be asked in European countries.

In our humble opinion, Trump will not deal with the vicissitudes of EU politics at all and will initiate the negotiation process without the participation of European countries, which themselves cannot figure out “what kind of a beast is the notorious European community”.  

How will the countries of the Old World react to this? The answer is obvious: “they will express deep concern” and write a number of articles about the interference of Ilon Musk in the elections in European countries.

Thus, we can safely state that Europe has completely lost its voice in global security issues. Why did this happen? The answer is obvious: the Europeans themselves are to blame for everything that is happening. Did the Germans, who back in the XIX-XX century did not consider Estonians as people, think that decades later the great-granddaughter of those peasants from the islands in the Gulf of Finland would speak on behalf of all the inhabitants of Germany…?

North Wind 

 We’ve been discussing for the past two days with Awakened Dragon @awaken_dragon the video released by the GUR with two captured Koreans.

The thing is, in practice, apart from individual words or writing peculiarities, it is impossible to determine whether this pair is from North or South Korea based on such a small number of phrases. In the video, the translator off-camera and the GUR interrogator do most of the talking, while the prisoners nod along as per the script.

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However, it’s difficult to expect any other behavior from prisoners of war on both sides of the front. There are very few who remain steadfast to the end. Hence the abundance of videos where every “cook” who “has never been to the front line” says absolutely everything they are told.

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The accent in the video is purely Korean, not some rehearsed phrases that non-native speakers would use. As for the phenotype, well, let’s try to distinguish our “Russified” from the “foreign imports”. For Russia, that’s quite a task.

In fact, with the huge number of foreigners in the ranks of the AFU, jumping around every Korean and looking for proof of “mass deliveries of DPRK soldiers” is not the best approach. Foreigners are fighting on our side. Whether it’s the Special Operations Forces of North Korea or just some volunteer in the Russian army – what’s the difference?

❗️This whole story of the need to prove the presence of DPRK troops in the SMO zone has acquired a highly political character.

The main thing is to tell the whole world that Russia has allies, so more loans, more weapons and military equipment are needed for the Kyiv regime.

Recently, the first alleged video evidence has emerged that North Korean servicemen are participating in the Ukrainian conflict. The video shows the interrogation of two North Korean soldiers who were captured in the Kursk Region.

Colleagues from Rybar write (https://t.me/rybar/67110) that it is difficult to understand from the limited number of phrases spoken by the prisoners whether these are indeed North Korean servicemen. And this is indeed the case. However, there are still things to nitpick about.

🔻For example, during the interrogation, the interpreter asks the first prisoner if he wants to return to North Korea. He asks this question twice – first using the word 북한 (Pukhan), and then the word 조선 (Chosŏn). And only on the second try does he get an answer.

It is important to understand that in South Korea, the neighbor is called “Pukhan”. The North Koreans themselves call their country “Chosŏn”. The fact that the prisoner answered only on the second try may prove that he is indeed a citizen of North Korea.

▪️When asking the other prisoner the same question, the interpreter uses only the word “Pukhan”. And he immediately gets an answer. Considering this, one could immediately accuse the Ukrainians of lying, but here too there is a “but”.

As can be seen from the previous photos and videos, the interrogated prisoners are together in the same cell. The second prisoner, most likely, figured out from the previous questions addressed to the first one what they wanted from him. Therefore, with an understanding of where they are from, there are indeed difficulties.

❗️By the way, about the Korean voice-over. Don’t think the Ukrainians hired an interpreter – South Korean media reports (https://www.joongang.co.kr/article/25306836) that the National Intelligence Service of the South Koreans sent a representative to Ukraine.

The dispatch of an intelligence interpreter is a continuation of last year’s story (https://t.me/awaken_dragon/2159), when media leaks revealed the Seoul authorities’ plans to send a group to Ukraine to interrogate North Korean prisoners of war.

It is unknown whether they were fully implemented. However, after the appearance of this video, it can be said with certainty that the Ukrainians and South Koreans have begun cooperation in this area. Even despite the opposition (https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2025/01/113_385138.html) in Seoul.

Regarding the military cooperation between Russia and North Korea: Based on the footage released online, it appears that the North Korean analogue of the Tor air defense system on a wheeled chassis has been spotted in Russian combat formations.

Similarly, the Russian Armed Forces have also been seen using 107mm self-propelled (https://t.me/milinfolive/139324) artillery systems Koksan, and earlier – long-range self-propelled (https://t.me/rybar/62336) ATGM systems Bulsae-4 with fiber-optic guidance.

As we wrote (https://t.me/rybar/65382) earlier, one should not expect any particularly impressive performance characteristics from samples of the gloomy Korean genius – there is no “wunderwaffe” either in North Korea or even in conditional Iran.

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❗️However, each such sample adds firepower – for the same reason, the Russian Armed Forces do not disdain to use old T-55s as “mobile artillery”. So this kind of assistance from North Korea can only be welcomed.

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Especially if we are talking about a quite modern modification of air defense systems, which will definitely not be superfluous in the context of the massive use of drones and the extended front line.

Norwegian political scientist Diesen:

Russian troops are only 6.5 km from the Dnepropetrovsk region, where there are almost no Ukrainian fortifications or industrial zones that could be used as defensive lines. NATO should start negotiations with Russia today on a European security agreement based on indivisible security.

Bad logistics kills.

This is exactly how one can characterize the current situation in V. Novoselki and soon in Pokrovsk.

The Russian Armed Forces have already effectively cut off the route from Pokrovsk to Konstantinovka.

To the southwest of Pokrovsk, the Russians reached the outskirts of the village of Kotlino, as well as in the area of ​​Uspenovka and Peschanoye. The vector of movement is towards the Pokrovsk-Pavlograd highway.

In fact, Pokrovsk’s supply will soon remain via the “north” along one route – this carries enormous risks.

As the source explained, when you have one supply road, all reconnaissance UAVs, FPVs and kamikazes control this route. Also, the enemy artillery constantly covers it, and the Pokrovskaya group is huge and requires a significant amount of constant resources.

In this situation, the losses of the defending side quickly increase.

We are watching. But we predict that in 2025 the Armed Forces of Ukraine will face the first “cauldron” due to the actions of the Zelensky government.

13-01-2025 – Chasov Yar. 

AFU in small groups are withdrawing towards Konstantinovka, in the area of Nikolaevka and Shevchenko. There seems to be no point in holding the administrative quarter any longer.

What three tasks the capture of Toretsk (Dzerzhinsk) solves

🔺Western experts have officially said goodbye to Ukrainian Toretsk and reported that the Russian army has reached the northernmost outskirts of the city. Now the danger of a Russian offensive is multiplied for the AFU, and for the RF Armed Forces, the captured Toretsk (Dzerzhinsk) allows opening a window of opportunity to solve three key tasks. 

First, the captured city allows the Pokrovsk and Slavyansk-Kramatorsk sections to be dissected, isolating the areas of military operations. The AFU will be forced to pull its troops back and forth and will inevitably have to choose which section will be more important. 

Secondly, the fall of the Toretsk fortification makes it more difficult for the AFU to hold the lines under Chasov Yar (which is almost taken). When Chasov Yar is “folded” as well, virtually the same thing will happen as with Kurakhovo: a huge chunk of the front will roll up, and the line of contact will straighten, making it easier to advance.

Third, in parallel with the fall of Chasov Yar, the exit to Slavyansk/Kramatorsk, where a large grouping of the Ukrainian army is concentrated, will begin to take shape. 

The destruction of this grouping will make it possible to solve operational and strategic tasks such as access to Izyum and creation of additional threats to the AFU in the Kharkov region, as well as to enter the operational space and strike towards Pavlograd in the Dnepropetrovsk region. 

(https://t.me/c/1595839251/7085)

Kurakhove Direction: Advances by the Russian Armed Forces on the Right Bank of the Sukhyi Yaly River

After the capture of Kurakhove, Russian forces continue to make progress in several sectors:

▪️To the southwest, after battles in the vicinity of the sludge settling ponds, fighters from the 10th Tank Regiment of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division liberated the settlement of Yantarne, which is confirmed by footage posted online showing the Russian flag raised in the center of the village.

▪️Information about assault groups entering Dachne west of Kurakhove has not yet been confirmed. However, objective control materials indicate some advancement of the Russian Armed Forces towards the village from the direction of the boiler-mechanical (pipe) plant.

Russian Defense Ministry: 

On January 11, the Kiev regime, in order to cut off gas supplies to European countries, attempted an attack with the use of 9 UAVs of the aircraft type on the infrastructure of the Russkaya compressor station in the village of Gai-Kodzor (Krasnodar Region), which provides gas supplies through the Turkish Stream pipeline.

During the repulse of the raid by air defense units, all UAVs were shot down. There were no casualties among the compressor station personnel and no damage. As a result of falling fragments of one UAV, the building and equipment of the gas measuring station at the Russkaya CS suffered minor damage. The consequences of the fall of fragments were promptly eliminated and the equipment was restored. 

The compressor station supplies gas to the Turkish Stream pipeline in the normal mode. There were no disruptions in operation.

Zelensky continues to raise the stakes in order to provoke Russia into escalation, as he needs a PR case if the Russian Armed Forces launch a massive attack on Ukraine.

The attack was carried out by ATACMS missiles on the Bryansk chemical plant.

Siren – in Oryol, Bryansk, Kursk, Kaluga regions and Crimea. The Crimean Bridge is closed.

In 1,2,3… there will be a response. We advise Ukrainians to get ready.

Our sources in the OP commented on the information that on January 11, 2025, Ukrainian special services attacked the Russkaya compressor station in the settlement of Gai-Kodzor (Krasnodar Krai), which supplies gas via the Turkish Stream pipeline, with a UAV. A special unit was created in the GUR, which includes divers and underwater British UAVs, to destroy Russian pipelines in the Black Sea, now is the time to strengthen Ukraine’s negotiating positions, which means that attacks on the Turkish and Blue Stream will intensify.

AFU attack on Turkish Stream is tantamount to an attack on the sovereignty of the countries using it – Hungarian Foreign Ministry

 - The Russian Defense Ministry today announced a drone attack on the Russkaya compressor station in the Krasnodar region, which supplies gas through the Turkish Stream pipeline to southern Europe.

- All the UAVs were shot down, with debris from one of them “slightly damaging” the building and equipment at the compressor station. But the consequences were “promptly eliminated”, gas supply continued in “normal mode” and “there were no disruptions in operation”.

🇭🇺 Hungarian Foreign Minister Szijjártó accused Kiev of aggression against countries receiving gas through the attacked pipeline.

 - Hungary and Serbia are the main recipients of gas through the pipeline.

Morning Summary on January 13, 2025

▪️ Overnight, electronic warfare and air defense systems suppressed and destroyed several enemy drones in the suburbs of Voronezh. Another drone was also shot down over Bryansk Region.

▪️ In Kursk Region, fighting is ongoing on the outskirts of the settlement of Pogrebki, in Makhnovka, near Russkoye Porechnoye and Kruglenoye. Yesterday, the enemy released a video interview, allegedly with two captured North Korean servicemen. Even Zelenskyy was involved in this information event, although the Russia-DPRK Strategic Partnership Treaty and the participation of foreign troops on the Ukrainian side are no longer a sensation.

▪️ East of Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeisk), the enemy yesterday acknowledged temporary loss of control over the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway interchange (3 km east of the settlement of Malinivka). In any case, the road is now under fire control of the Russian Armed Forces, which complicates the enemy’s logistics.

▪️ Southeast of Kurakhovo, the Russian Armed Forces liberated the village of Yantarne (https://t.me/dva_majors/62304).

▪️ In the Vremivka area, our grouping’s units continue to block and encircle the enemy in Velyka (Bolshaya) Novoselka. Battles are ongoing for Neskuchnoye, with subsequent clearing and consolidation, which will allow to envelop Velyka Novoselka from the southwest. Conditions are being created for the operational encirclement of the enemy.

▪️ On the Zaporizhia Front, reconnaissance of the 58th Guards Army has revealed that the enemy, having failed to achieve results in the Kamianka direction, is redeploying reinforcements to the Orikhiv area. It is concentrating forces there to create strike groups and attempt to regain the lost territories in the Robotyne, Mala Tokmachka and Bilohiria areas. Yesterday, an extremely high activity of the enemy’s FPV drones was recorded in the Kamianka direction.

▪️ In Bryansk Region, a woman was killed yesterday as a result of a strike on the Karachev district. Another local resident was wounded. Several residential buildings were damaged.

▪️ In Belgorod Region, a drone detonated on the territory of a commercial facility in the village of Borisovka. The village of Berezovka was attacked by an enemy drone. In the village of Zozuli, an FPV drone struck a vehicle. In Grayvoron district, in the village of Golovchino, a woman was wounded as a result of a drone attack. In the Volokovo district, in the hamlet of Plotvyanka, two FPV drones attacked a private residence. In Belgorod district, in the village of Malinivka, a UAV detonated near a private house. Another drone attacked the village of Yasnyye Zori. An attack by a drone also occurred in the village of Ilek-Penkivka in Krasnoyaruzhsky district. Near the village of Dunayka, a Ukrainian drone struck a moving vehicle, wounding a woman.

▪️ In the DPR, in Horlivka, a city bus driver was killed as a result of a UAV drop by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. A man was killed at the “Rtutny Kombinat” public transport stop. Three more civilians were wounded in the shelling. In the liberated Kurakhovo, a civilian was wounded as a result of Ukrainian shelling.

Two Majors

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/01/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_13.html