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The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on December 19 2024

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Zelensky and Yermak are deliberately creating conditions to disrupt any peace talks.

Trump’s future special envoy to Ukraine said that Kirillov’s murder “was not a smart move” by Kiev

▪️Keith Kellogg believes that this terrorist attack will not be an obstacle to the start of peace talks on the Ukrainian conflict. According to Kellogg, both Moscow and Kiev are ready for discussions.

▪️Earlier, Russia’s Permanent Representative Vasily Nebenzya emphasized at the UN that Moscow would not be satisfied with any schemes for freezing the Ukrainian conflict.

Putin on Kirillov’s murder: 

You said assassination. I am grateful to you for that, because you indirectly recognized that this was a terrorist act. Why? Because this murder was committed in a way that is dangerous to the lives of many. The regime in Kiev has repeatedly committed such crimes, terrorist crimes, terrorist attacks against many Russian citizens. And in Kursk now, when they are shooting civilians there, I mean in Kursk region, and in other territories of Russia, they have killed journalists, committed terrorist acts against journalists. We have never once heard any condemnation of such terrorist attacks from the Western journalist corps. 

Are you comfortable with the assassination [of General Kirillov]?

Prime Minister Starmer:

“Well, as I said, we must stand with Ukraine. I think it is the developing situation. But this morning’s morning discussion was very clear about the strategic need for NATO to stand as we do with Ukraine in this critical period”

Our source in the OP said that Zelensky is confident of further support from the West, and lobbyists in the US assure us of the need to hold out until 2025 and the situation will change. The President’s Office has prepared for a protracted war and will not compromise with Trump, who is imposing his plan for a peaceful settlement of the war in Ukraine.

Briefly about Putin’s final press conference.

Putin played the role of peacemaker against the backdrop of Zelensky, who was escalating the situation.

Putin showed his strength by proposing a “duel” between Oreshnik and Western air defense. Even if Kiev/Western curators refuse, it will be a sign of weakness and a formal victory for the Russian Federation.

Putin confirmed that he was ready for a Christmas truce, which is a plus for his image as a peacemaker compared to Zelensky.

Now Zelensky is giving his press conference, which, against the backdrop of Putin, is completely saturated with aggression and aimed at “continuing the war.” Ze is losing in terms of information. All his statements are based on “loud, unfounded accusations.”

Ze buries himself.

Regarding the possibility of negotiations with the so-called Ukraine, during Vladimir Putin’s “direct line” the same formulations were voiced as half a year ago and earlier, where the key words are about “taking into account the realities on the ground.”

The Russian president added that there will be no talks with the illegitimate leadership of the so-called Ukraine, and something can be discussed with Zelenskyy only if he holds elections, which the head of the Kyiv regime does not plan to do for now.

In general, the situation remains the same: the probability of real negotiations will be determined by the combat capabilities and successes of the Russian Armed Forces, as well as the ability of the industry to ensure the continuation of hostilities without losing the economic stability of the state.

Starmer said that Britain will arm Ukraine even if peace talks begin.

Repeats Johnson’s path.

If you look at the situation as a whole, you can see that we are in a new ‘cold war’ with Russia.

We are at a very important stage. We have passed the mark of 1,000 days of war. My message is that regardless of whether there can be negotiations or not, we must not reduce our support for Ukraine. We must redouble our support.

‘UK defense minister Healey has allowed British troops to be sent to Ukraine’ – they will not only train the Ukrainian armed forces but also help with mobilization – The Telegraph 

‘We need to make access to training easier and we need to work with the Ukrainians to help them motivate and mobilize more recruits. We will look for any opportunities to meet the needs of the Ukrainians. They are the ones fighting.’

Zelensky in Brussels: 

  I think this is a very good opportunity to talk about security guarantees for Ukraine today and tomorrow. It is really very important to use these two days in Brussels to meet with all our partners and have one, which is very important, undivided, one common position of Europe. About how to ensure the security of Ukraine, how to strengthen us, our people, citizens, and, of course, make our army stronger.

And of course, you mentioned, you talked about the priority of winter and of course it is about missile defense, about the systems, the number of such systems, very important for us. So we already had a meeting with President Macron, and a little bit later tomorrow we will have a meeting with other leaders. We will share all our messages with all the EU leaders.

Ukrainian Politicians’ Rudeness as an Element of Information Warfare

In recent days, we could observe how Zelenskyy and other representatives of the Kyiv regime resorted to rudeness (https://ria.ru/20241217/zelenskiy-1989763750.html) towards Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and other politicians discussing peace initiatives.

As we have already written, (https://t.me/rybar/65411) such behavior is not only a manifestation of the obvious level of cultural development of the Ukrainian leadership, but also a conscious strategy within the framework of attracting Western attention to the so-called Ukraine.

It all started at the beginning of the SMO, when the Western media created an image of Zelenskyy and his entourage as indispensable, without whose resolution there could be no negotiations on the fate of the so-called Ukraine. Naturally, they began to actively use this.

📌 For example, Zelenskyy could demand from Germany or the USA the delivery of weapons on the principle of “ask for more – they will give a lot,” nodding to the public statements of NATO countries in 2022 about comprehensive support for the so-called Ukraine.

As a result, the sponsors of the Kyiv regime found themselves in a situation where they cannot refuse their promises, and they cannot publicly rein in Zelenskyy due to the carte blanche they have issued for impunity.

❗️In this regard, the question arises of when and how exactly Zelenskyy and his entourage will be held accountable for all the antics, which have not been forgotten in the West. Especially in the conditions when the costs of maintaining the so-called Ukraine are less and less consistent with the “output” from it.

US and allies spent $250 billion on military aid to Kiev; Blinken against ceasefire in Ukraine without Russia fulfilling “fundamental demands”

▪️The US sent $100 billion in military aid: A significant portion of these funds was directed toward the development of the US military-industrial complex and the production of products needed by Ukraine.

▪️US allies and partners have provided Kiev with approximately $150 billion in aid, the outgoing Secretary of State added.

▪️Blinken spoke out against a ceasefire in Ukraine without Russia fulfilling “fundamental demands.”

➖”Any ceasefire in Putin’s eyes looks like an opportunity to give the troops a break, re-equip them and attack again at the right moment,” he said.

▪️According to him, a ceasefire is only possible under conditions “that ensure compliance with fundamental requirements.”

➖”If this (ceasefire – Ed.) contains the necessary agreements, the necessary guarantees, the necessary obligations that will prevent further Russian aggression.”

The President’s Office is looking for air defense to protect nuclear power plants from Russian attacks.

Zelensky said that Russia, during its latest strikes, targeted substations that supply power to Ukrainian nuclear power plants.

According to him, there are more than 20 of these substations, which is why Kyiv has requested 19 additional air defense systems from the West.

During the direct line, Vladimir Putin also spoke about the “Oreshnik” system, proposing a “technological duel” to NATO – to choose an object in Kyiv, concentrate all Western air defense and missile defense systems there, and see who wins.

In general, such events do not occur that rarely, if one looks at the strikes on Kyiv with its dense cover of Patriot, NASAMS and IRIS-T systems. Judging by the footage of impacts on power plants (https://t.me/rybar/59064) or the Artem factory (https://t.me/rybar/61661), the outcome of at least some of these “rounds” was unambiguous.

As for the notorious “Oreshnik”, a very obvious candidate for its use seems to be not so much Kyiv, but rather an object located very close to Poland. Or even a structure several dozen kilometers further west.

Zelensky – about the duel with “Oreshnik”: 

  Do you see who we are dealing with? Today, a “comrade from the Kremlin” said that Russia is proposing a technological duel. He says: “We’ll hit Kiev somewhere with Oreshnik, and let them put up air defense. We’ll see what happens.” And you think this is an adequate person? Just scumbags.

Putin – about the duel with “Oreshnik”: 

[Are we right now ready for a duel?] 

 - We are ready right now. Right today. 

[Why in Kiev?]

 - Please, we can do it elsewhere. It’s just that in Kiev, in my opinion, according to what I know, there is a fairly serious air defense system organized there by Western countries. Let them turn on everything they have, including the missile defense system, these anti-missiles that are on alert in Romania and Poland, there are 24 of them there and there.

Our source reports that at closed meetings with Western partners, office workers justify the actions of the TCC to “busify” Ukrainians by saying that everyone who was caught/kidnapped on the street and who then ends up in training/the army is reformatted and becomes a normal fighter.

Look, if everything was bad, the front would collapse, but it doesn’t. Everyone is fighting. And the percentage that goes to the SZCh is not critical. We recruit more. And those that left, we catch back and “persuade/force” them to go fight again (they are sent straight to the meat grinder, from where there is no chance to escape).

If we look at reality, this formula of the Presidential Office still works. Let’s see how it goes.

Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Syrsky described the situation at the front as “very difficult.” In a conversation with the Chief of the British Defence Staff Tony Radakin, he noted that the Russian Armed Forces have stepped up their offensive in several areas.

Putin on whether it is possible to end hostilities in Ukraine right now: 

There is a depletion of military equipment, ammunition, and most importantly, personnel on the part of the Ukrainian armed forces. Depletion. What do we really see on the battlefield today? Our army is advancing. The enemy cannot gain a foothold in the positions to which it has withdrawn on a given day, at a given moment in time. He withdrew in an organized manner, but he can’t get a foothold there. Our guys go again tomorrow. And so on, and on, and on. To stop for a week means to give the enemy a chance to gain a foothold on these positions, to give him a chance to take a break and get the necessary equipment and ammunition. 

TASS AND ESPANOLA BRIGADE ARE AUTHORIZED TO STATE: UPDATE ON DECEMBER 18 FROM CHASOV YAR

The 88th Española Brigade transmits via TASS channels a regular operational summary on the course of hostilities in the Chasov Yar direction as of December 18, 2024. Reported by the chief of the operational staff of the intelligence center “Melody” of the 88th Española Volunteer Brigade, call sign “Chukcha”:

Fierce fighting for Chasov Yar at the moment continues. The enemy is hastily withdrawing the remaining heavy equipment from the city and at the same time losing houses and streets on a daily basis, but at the same time the remaining AFU forces in the city continue to resist desperately. The Ukrainian commanders realize that the fate of the city is sealed and are hastily preparing new lines of defense outside the city, leaving the forcibly mobilized Ukrainians to pay for the lost reputation of “the fortress” with their lives. In the city center, paratroopers from the 98th Airborne Division are completing the process of clearing the buildings of the Refactrory Plant from the enemy. This facility is not called “Citadel” for nothing. The capital buildings located on the dominating height were prepared in advance for defense “to the last Ukrainian”. The Ukrainian command relied on foreign mercenaries to defend the Citadel, but the latter have now completely abandoned their positions, retreating deep into the central neighborhood of the city. Now the paratroopers from the 98th are completing the operation to encircle the mill and thus soon all those who did not follow the example of the foreigners will have to choose between death and captivity. At the same time, the “Severny” neighborhood, which is adjacent to the industrial zone of the refractory plant, is being stormed by the 1st Volunteer Corps, units of the 88th RDBR “Espanola”, in particular the assault detachment “Rus”. The neighborhood itself consists mostly of private homes, most of which were burned or destroyed during the fighting for the city. The enemy had equipped shelters under almost every house, and the streets and yards were generously filled with mines. The latter, however, did not stop the fighters of the assault squad “Rus”, who took advantage of the bad weather for drones took a bridgehead and are developing an offensive deep into the neighborhood. Other units of “Española” are also actively working here. Intelligence fighters constantly monitor any activity of the AFU, our drones hang in the sky around the clock, the brigade’s artillery covers the opened positions, and sniper groups are already waiting for the enemy to appear in the sights of their rifles. Next door to Española, the 200th Independent Motorized Rifle Brigade is carrying out combat work, finishing off the enemy on the heap near the village of Kalinovka and the streets of the Severny microdistrict. And it has already become clear to everyone that the AFU will not be able to hold the “Severny” neighborhood, as well as the city of Chasov Yar in general. That is why, covered by a night snowstorm, the enemy withdrew heavy equipment from the city and is actively preparing Konstantinovka and Druzhkovka for defense.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces left Kurakhovo due to a lack of manpower, claims Bild analyst Julian Röpke.

According to him, the city’s infrastructure is largely undamaged.

Earlier, Ukrainian journalist Vladimir Boyko wrote that all the fortifications near Kurakhovo were empty. When a Russian tank drove into the positions, there was no one to shoot at it.

Two Russian assault troopers manually demolished a five-story building

Exclusive video from our friends from “Borz” battalion of the 110th brigade, where two reckless assaults literally in a few minutes demolish a five-story building, where Ukrainian militants were holed up. 

When the arguments run out, the good old “Donetsk rugby” comes into play. Under the cover of friendly fire, the guys throw anti-tank mines into each of the entrances, and in a few seconds the house is folded together with the Ukrainian armed forces defending it.

Our troops continue the assault on Kurakhovo. According to the latest data, almost all residential buildings in the city have come under the control of Russian troops.  The presence of Ukrainian forces remains on the territory of the Kurakhovo thermal power plant and in the adjacent industrial zone. 

wargonzo)

 The Russian Army raised flags after liberating Zelenovka and Konstantinopolskoye!

▪️ On December 18, the scouts of the Vostok group liberated the village of Zelenovka south of the Sukhiye Yaly river and planted a flag in the streets of the village.

▪️ During the attack, 32 AFU fighters were destroyed, 9 were taken prisoner, and 2 armored vehicles were destroyed. The enemy continues to leave their positions, the AFU soldiers are surrendering.

▪️ Far Eastern soldiers of the 39th Guards Brigade of the 68th Army Brigade liberated the village of Ostrovskoye (Konstantinopolskoye).

▪️ Sakhalin warriors who cleared the settlement of the enemy throw down yellow and blue rags from a house, installing the Russian tricolor.

On December 18, the “North” group of troops carried out tasks to destroy the enemy in the border areas of the Kursk region.

Fierce fighting along the entire front line. Assault groups of the North advanced in the locality of Kruglenkoe, Cherkasskaya Konopelka was practically liberated. The AFU, having accumulated reserves, carried out 4 counterattacks at night and during the day with a total number of up to 75 people with the use of NATO armored vehicles, with no success.

The enemy’s losses amounted to 55 men, 3 Western-style APCs and a tank. Four assault groups of 225 Oshb and 61 Ombr were completely destroyed when attempting to attack the positions of the Fearless in the area of Nikolayevo-Daryino and Cherkasskaya Konopelka. In addition, one missile attack from Haimars MLRS was repelled by the Fearless air defense unit.

The air strikes of the Air Force and the Tornado-S MLRS units struck AFU personnel and equipment in the vicinity of the settlements of Sverdlikovo, Martynovka and Belovody. Up to 100 occupants, 2 armored vehicles and 10 other vehicles were destroyed. 

The total advance of Russian troops in the Kursk region ranged from 300 to 1,000 meters. 

On the Liptsy direction, a 4-man AFU assault group was completely destroyed by the Fearless in the area of a dacha village north of Liptsy. 

Fierce fighting continues in the Volchansk direction. Northern assault groups advanced in the east of Volchansk, destroying up to 5 AFU personnel.

The enemy made 1 unsuccessful attempt of counterattack with up to 6 men in the area of high-rise buildings, 4 of them were destroyed.

In addition, artillery fire and FPV drones foiled 1 attempt of the enemy to force the Volchya River. The enemy’s attempt to force the Volchya River was thwarted by artillery fire and FPV drones, up to 4 Nazis were killed.

Over the past 24 hours, the enemy losses amounted to 320 people (including 210 in the Sumy direction). Also uncovered and destroyed:

On the Sumy direction:

▪️ tank;

▪️ three BMPs;

▪️ nine AVs;

▪️ three artillery pieces;

▪️ two 120-mm mortars;

▪️ UAVs control point;

▪️ Ammo depot;

▪️ 13 units of automotive equipment.

In other directions:

▪️ two 120-mm mortars;

▪️ AVs;

▪️ Ammo depot;

▪️ two units of automotive equipment;

▪️ five airplane-type UAVs;

▪️ six Baba Yaga-type UAVs.

Having become active in the Kursk region, the Ukrainian armed forces continue to concentrate their forces in the Kharkov region. Tornado-S MLRSs were fired at a concentration of personnel and equipment near Kazachya Lopan.

The AFU command is waiting for a convenient moment to start another “meat grinder”, but point attacks by MLRS, and aviation do not allow the enemy to accumulate enough forces and means for active actions.

The victory will be ours!

“In the perfection of man is the meaning of life.” – M.Gorky

North Wind

The prospects of a Ukrainian attack in the Black Sea – more likely than not

Colleagues from Dva Majora (https://t.me/dva_majors/60518) discuss the possibility of a Ukrainian strike on the Crimean Peninsula in the Black Sea, noting that while everyone is preparing for a push in the north, Ukrainian forces may “unexpectedly” strike in the south.

One of the main elements of the offensive, or rather its preparation, is deception. If we recall the events in the Kharkiv or Kherson Regions, it was roughly the same back then.

➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖

➖The AFU still have a large number of watercraft, despite strikes on the Odesa port.

➖USVs have only been used twice in the last three months, but their production has not stopped. The same applies to UAVs.

➖According to Archangel (https://t.me/rusich_army/19452), several SOF “South” groups have settled in Ochakiv, training to cross the sea on boats and jet skis.

➖In the Kherson Region, units of the 72nd Mechanized Brigade have been spotted, and the 150th Mechanized Brigade has been transferred to the command of the 30th Marine Corps to strengthen its potential.

➖And F-16s have not been used yet, with 24 out of 34 units deployed to the Fetești airbase in Romania near the Black Sea. A week ago, there were only 18.

➖NATO exercises off the coast of Romania have addressed issues of underwater sabotage and amphibious landings.

➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖

❗️As in the previous year, such an attack (if it occurs) will pursue purely political goals. Achieving any military objectives seems highly unlikely.

However, the adversary has quite a few strike assets: they are mass-producing drones thanks to the West, and are also stockpiling long-range missiles. So we shouldn’t dismiss this scenario, as all this could cause problems if their capabilities are underestimated.

Russian Defense Ministry: 

   On December 18, a missile strike was launched from the territory of Ukraine against the Kamensky Combine enterprise in Rostov Region. According to confirmed data, six American-made ATACMS operational-tactical missiles and four Storm Shadow air-launched cruise missiles were used. 

During the anti-missile battle, combat crews of the S-400, Buk-M3 air defense missile systems and the Pantsir air defense missile and cannon system shot down all ATACMS missiles and three of the four Storm Shadow missiles. 

One cruise missile was deflected away from the object of attack. As a result of its fall, a technical structure on the territory of the plant was damaged. These actions of the Kiev regime, supported by Western curators, will not go unanswered.

Last night, Ukrainian formations attacked the territory of Russia again, using more than 80 drones and three missiles.

According to official data, most of the air targets were intercepted, including 21 over the territory of Bryansk Region, 14 over the territory of Belgorod Region, six over the territory of Voronezh Region, three each over the territories of Kursk and Tambov Regions, and one over the territory of Krasnodar Krai.

In Rostov Region, one of the drones struck the Novoshakhtinsk Oil Refinery, causing a fire. By morning, the emergency and rescue teams had extinguished the fire. Reports of casualties came only from near Rostov, where a person was injured by falling debris.

Debris from Storm Shadow (SCALP-EG) missiles shot down during their flight to the Rostov region.

Chronicles of the special military operation

for December 19, 2024

Russian forces struck targets in several regions of the so-called Ukraine over the past day, including in Kryvyi Rih, where there were power outages.

Ukrainian formations again carried out a massive raid on Russian territory. As a result of the attack, there was a fire at the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery, which was quickly extinguished.

In the Kursk direction, Russian troops raised the flag of the 155th Marine Brigade in the east of Novoyivanovka, confirming its complete liberation.

In the Vremivka direction, Russian Armed Forces units completely drove the enemy out of Razdolne, which facilitates the liberation of the neighboring village of Novyi Komaр.

In the Zaporizhia direction, Russian troops expanded the control zone in the area of Nesteryanki, driving the enemy out of a major stronghold.


Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2024/12/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_19.html


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