The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on November 26 2024

Macron, Starmer To Cross Putin’s Biggest Red Line? UK & France ‘Reactivate’ Talks On Big Plan

Advances in Kurakhove & fierce fighting at the gates of Velyka Novosilka [26 November 2024]

Russia Enters Velyka Novosilka l 2 Fronts Collapsed At Once

Ukrainian Defenses Fall One After Another In Southern Donetsk

Only GIGACHADS know Russia’s NEW OFFENSIVE! Kozacha Lopan incursion expanded… | Ukraine War SITREP

RUSSIA EXPANDS BEACHHEAD ALONG OSKIL RIVER; Ukraine cleared Kupyansk | Ukraine War Frontline Changes

Our source in the OP said that Andriy Yermak is going to offer the Republicans all the lucrative contracts that the Democrats were sitting on in Ukraine, while he is ready to leak all the Biden Administration’s money-making schemes. The head of the OP hopes to profitably exchange the corrupt data of actors in the US for further support for Trump and agree on a personal reception for Zelensky in January.

Andriy Yermak is trying to formulate a negotiating position for Zelensky that will suit Trump and be accepted in Ukraine.

The downside of Volodymyr Zelensky’s plan to end the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict, written for the Republicans in the United States, is that it does not provide for the return of Ukraine’s 1991 borders, a source from the Ukrainian top military and political leadership told RBK Ukraine. According to the publication, Kyiv is considering a return to the borders of February 23, 2022, as a starting point for starting negotiations. Zelensky offered the United States joint development of deposits on the country’s territory. This is due to the assumption that if Kyiv’s Western partners have their own business in Ukraine, they will be more likely to protect these assets and provide Kyiv with security guarantees.

Colleagues, the Head of the OP Yermak has chosen a wait-and-see position for now , since Trump is not yet in power. He is testing the waters for bargaining through his lobby. Yes, if necessary, he will sell out everything and everyone, but so far he has not received such an offer, and he himself is downright afraid to offer such a thing while Biden is still formally in power.

Most likely, all our officials will run to bow to Trump after the inauguration.

If Yermak is not directly involved in the negotiation process on the Ukrainian crisis, which Trump initiated in January, and which Yermak is trying to personally get involved in, it will mean that he has been “sent off.”

We are observing

Syrsky hinted that the Ukrainian Armed Forces would soon launch a new urgent offensive. This could of course be a bluff, or an attempt to raise the morale of the retreating army. But we should not forget that Bankova needs to carry out this offensive at any cost before Trump begins a peace case on the Ukrainian crisis.

Our source has long stated that Zelensky is preparing an offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces closer to Christmas (Christmas offensive). It is advantageous in that it should happen a month before the inauguration and give Bankova better conditions in the negotiating case.

Many experts warn that this “urgent offensive” that Zelensky demands could turn into a disaster for the Ukrainian Armed Forces and ultimately collapse the defense even more.

Let’s see how it goes.

Our source in the General Staff said that the problem of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the Eastern Front is the lack of reserves, since all forces are thrown into the Kursk Region. The General Staff is forced to remove units from their positions and plug gaps in other areas, while the enemy constantly leaves for observation and attacks the places from which we remove soldiers.

the_military_analytics

Our source reports that the Kremlin is coordinating lists for a retaliatory strike against Ukraine.

The Kremlin will keep its promise and will fly en masse to Ukraine in response to the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ strikes with Western ATACMS missiles on the Kursk region. Zelensky deliberately launched a massive strike to try to disrupt Trump’s peace plan and further ignite the Ukrainian crisis.

According to the source, EVEN a massive combined strike with the use of all means of destruction is being discussed. Geranis will fly en masse, followed by Kalibres and “Xs”, then Iskanders and Onyxes, and for dessert, Oreshnik.

Everyone is waiting for the list of targets. Most likely, many will fly to Western Ukraine and Kyiv. Many on logistics and railroads. Many on energy and possibly “dams”.

We advise you not to ignore the alarm. Stock up on water, food and charge everything you can.

If the Kremlin announces the list, it should not be treated irresponsibly. Although Bankova will try to troll again, since they need a tragedy.

The enemy has launched a series of strikes with US missiles on Kursk region, a response is being prepared – Defense Ministry statement 

 - According to confirmed data, over the past 3 days, the AFU launched 2 strikes with long-range Western weapons on facilities in the Kursk region. 

 - Thus, on November 23, the enemy struck the position of S-400 air defense missiles with five US-made ATACMS operational-tactical missiles near Lotarevka (37 km north-west of Kursk). 

 - During the anti-missile battle, three ATACMS missiles were destroyed and two reached their target. 

 - As a result of the strike, the radar system was damaged. There are casualties among the personnel. 

 - On November 25, the Kiev regime launched one more strike with eight ATACMS operational-tactical missiles against the Kursk-Vostochny airfield (Khalino settlement). 7 missiles were shot down by S-400 SAMs and Pantsir SAMs, one missile reached its target. As a result of missile fragments falling, two military personnel were slightly injured and infrastructure facilities were slightly damaged. 

- In the course of the survey of the places that were attacked, it was reliably confirmed that the Ukrainian armed forces were striking with ATACMS operational-tactical missiles. 

The Russian Defense Ministry is monitoring the situation, and retaliatory actions are being prepared.

Biden’s recent decisions to allow Ukraine to launch missiles deeper into Russia and to provide Kiev with controversial antipersonnel land mines were driven by a stark new reality:  Ukrainian battlefield losses and the election of Trump have thrust Ukraine into perhaps its weakest position in nearly 3 years.

‘Since the start of the fighting in Ukraine, Biden has resisted delivering ATACMS for a year, worried about how Russia would respond. Biden’s fears have often been reinforced by U.S. intel agencies, with analysts arguing that a powerful ATACMS, for example, could provoke Putin into a harsh response. Biden ultimately authorized the use of ATACMS in Russia after Korea sent troops to Moscow’s aid, hoping to signal to Pyongyang that it risked significant losses. But Biden is cognizant of the risk that Putin might use nuclear weapons if he felt threatened. Even those who disagree with the president, understand the pressure he faces to avoid drawing the US into a broader war with a nuclear rival.’

Former French Secretary of State Pierre Lelouch:    

It’s madness to drag French troops into a war when we don’t have the means, and it would lead us into an escalation that we couldn’t control. Suppose you were to place French troops along the front today. Or even behind. The Russians will strike those forces and kill 100, 200, 1,000 French soldiers. What do we do at that point? Where are the support forces, the reinforcements? We have almost none, since we disarmed 30 years ago. So what do we do? Do we rebuild our forces, which will be destroyed again? Do we go nuclear after that? 

So when you get into a game like this, you have to be careful what you say. This is a time for cool heads and de-escalation. Not for such military statements, especially when you can’t afford it.

The French army today is not capable of serious and sustained engagement in a high-intensity war. All our soldiers know this. We need to rearm urgently. That is one of the lessons of this war. France’s possession of nuclear weapons will not, contrary to our hopes, protect us from war.

The Biden administration will provide Kiev with everything it needs to continue the conflict in 2025 and engage in a peace dialog “from a position of strength” if it comes to it – Blinken. 

This seems to be the answer to the question “will the Ukrainian offensive take place in 2025″. 

There are a couple of subtleties. Let’s assume that another 100-150 M1 Abrams tanks will be shipped under this event, another two or three hundred M113 APCs will also be easily found, and some number of Soviet-type tanks will be restored and assembled from machine kits. Quite possibly some number of F-16s will be used here as well.

Where Blinken, Syrsky and all those involved are going to get another 500-800 thousand (or preferably a million) trained troops is perhaps the most important question, since no trench or dugout works if the army has no soldiers. There is nothing to say about the offensive.

In 2023, the strike on Tokmak/Melitopol and towards Volnovakha/Mariupol involved (literally) hundreds of thousands of elite AFU units. Motivated, trained and well-equipped. 

But even such resource consumption gave, to put it mildly, only a limited effect in terms of time and influence, which at the moment (November 26, 2024) has been leveled almost completely. 

In this regard, it is extremely difficult to understand what exactly will be counted on when preparing a new offensive and whether it will be comparable in scale to what was seen in 2023.

Military Chronicle

Our sources report that Russian activity on the front is now at its highest level since the beginning of the war.

Many associate this with the fact that the Russians are deliberately creating mass activity in order to have high negotiating positions in January.

The argument is simple, we are advancing everywhere, they (the Ukrainian Armed Forces) are retreating. Another six months and they will completely capitulate. Why should we stop? But if you ask like that, then our demands are simple, give us 4 regions, etc.

Zelensky, the OP, the General Staff and the GUR are aware of this, but the real shortage of manpower, the high level of special forces, low motivation, and Zelensky’s desire to hold the Kursk territories at any cost, weaken the defense capabilities inside Ukraine.

The Kursk adventure will become a ‘thorn in Zelensky’s side’ – this is another Bakhmutov meat grinder, where the staff rats are draining the best Ukrainian forces for the sake of political bonuses.

Our source in the General Staff said that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are experiencing a severe shortage of anti-tank mines, which is why they are unable to create full-fledged defensive lines. If the enemy takes Pokrovsk, then operational space will open up for them and the opportunity to freely advance to the Dnieper.

“How is this possible?” Germany is outraged by the actions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Kurakhovo

Bild columnist Julian Repke expressed bewilderment over the advance of the Russian Armed Forces towards the city centre.

“How can 10 Russian soldiers breach the Ukrainian defense in central part of Kurakhovo? I just don’t get this. If you don’t want your army to fight man against man for your strategic towns, then you can give the sh*t up and negotiate your surrender”

- the German journalist wrote.

Kurakhovka direction: liberation of a number of settlements and fighting in Kurakhovka

situation as of 8:00 pm on November 26, 2024

Russian forces continue a rapid advance both on the approaches to Kurakhovka and to the south of it.

▪️In the city itself, fierce fighting continues in the urban area. Ukrainian formations are conducting local counterattacks, trying to stabilize the situation. Due to the extremely dynamic nature of the fighting in the city, the front line in Kurakhovka is rather conditional at the moment.

▪️To the south, Russian forces are advancing along the Sukhaya Gully, as well as attacking in the direction of the N-15 highway from the side of Dalneye. To the west of the latter, there are also successes in the forest belt towards Yantarnoye.

▪️At the line of Yelizavetovka – Ilyinka. The latter was liberated by Russian troops after several days of fighting. This was preceded by the clearing (https://t.me/dva_majors/58513) of a large stronghold east of the village by units of the 33rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division. Then they managed to reach the outskirts of Romanovka. According to some reports, Russian assault troops have already begun assault operations in the village. Significant advances of the Russian Armed Forces have also been recorded in the fields north of Ilyinka.

▪️At the same time, fighters of the 39th Guards Brigade and the 57th Regiment of the 20th Division of the 8th Army liberated Yelizavetovka. Under the cover of armored vehicles, they were able to quickly break the defense of the AFU in the village and reach its western outskirts. Later it became known that the territory of the “Forest Estate” grove also came under the control of the Russian Armed Forces, the capture of which opens the way to Veselyi Gai from the south.

“The fortifications in Zaporozhye will simply be bypassed”: another message from the Ukrainian Armed Forces about the difficult situation in the Velyka Novosilka area in the south of Donetsk Oblast.

A lieutenant of the Ukrainian Armed Forces with the call sign “Alex” writes that in this direction “something clearly went wrong, since the enemy has noticeably increased its offensive actions.”

“Don’t think that if Velyka Novosilka is in Donetsk Oblast, that’s all it will be. There’s a very short distance from there to the border of Zaporozhye and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts,” he explains.

According to him, Russians are already “dropping in” to Velikaya Novosyolka.

“We need to take immediate stabilization actions right now, because on an operational scale, a failure there could cost us dearly – to the point that the fortifications in Zaporozhye will simply be bypassed,” says “Alex.”

The Russians unexpectedly withdrew from the outskirts of Kupyansk.

There is an assumption that after Zelensky’s arrival, the Ukrainian Armed Forces were preparing to cut the Russians’ thin supply line and take the advanced units into a cauldron. This would have been a mega PR victory.

For the first time, the Russian military leadership decided not to waste the lives of soldiers.

There is also a version that the Russians have changed their strategy and most likely the departure from the Kupyansk positions is a regrouping.

We’ll see how it goes. But for now, this is the first positive news for the Ukrainian Armed Forces in recent months.

Chronicles of the special military operation

for November 26, 2024

The Russian forces carried out a massive drone strike on enemy targets in various regions of the so-called Ukraine. The main target was the energy infrastructure in Ternopil.

In the Pokrovsk direction, the Russian Armed Forces took control of most of Petrivka and occupied new positions west of Novoaleksiyivka.

In the Kurakhovka direction, Russian troops are advancing in the fields near Yelyzavetivka and Ilyinka, with fighting ongoing in Romanovka.

In the Kherson direction, the AFU shelled a bus with civilians in the center of Nova Kakhovka with mortars. Four people were killed, and more than two dozen suffered severe injuries.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2024/11/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_26.html