The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on November 02 2024

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Zelensky wants Tomahawk missiles

Our source reports that Zelensky has been in an irritated state for the last week. He is very hot-tempered and nervous. Despair reigns at Bankova, although everyone is trying to talk about the positive in public.

In such a situation, Zelensky could make a lot of mistakes.

Our sources report that there are more people in Ukrainian security and government agencies leaking information to the Russians. We were the first to get inside information about this at the beginning of the year.

Russian strikes have increasingly begun to hit targets at the moment when senior military officials and personnel are gathering/meeting, when interesting toys are being brought into facilities/warehouses, when production and storage locations for UAVs and equipment are being leaked, etc.

In Ukrainian society itself, the number of those who want Russia to come to them and end this nonsense and chaos is growing.

This all happened not because the Russians have a well-functioning media machine, but because Zelensky, his entourage and his policies turned people against Ukraine.

American military and intelligence officials have concluded that the war in Ukraine is no longer a stalemate as Russia makes steady gains, and the sense of pessimism in Kiev and Washington is deepening.

The dip in morale and questions about whether American support will continue pose their own threat to Ukraine’s war effort. Ukraine is losing territory in the east, and its forces inside Russia have been partially pushed back.

Russian troops have advanced in the Donbass region of eastern Ukraine. They have clawed back more than a third of the territory that Ukrainian forces seized in a surprise offensive in the Kursk region of western Russia this year. The number of Russian drone strikes across Ukraine has increased from 350 in July to 750 in August and 1,500 in September.

“The situation is tense,” said a Ukrainian major stationed on the Ukrainian side of the border near Kursk who goes by the call sign Grizzly. “We are constantly losing previously occupied positions, the enemy has an advantage in men and artillery, and we are trying to hold the line.”

Gone is the Russian force that repeatedly stumbled as it invaded Ukraine in 2022. The Russian military, according to a senior U.S. military official, has evolved and is “on the march.”

As a result, some American intelligence agencies and military officials are pessimistic about Ukraine’s ability to stop Russian advances as Kiev tries to find ways to build up forces exhausted by nearly three years of war.

In Ukraine, morale is eroding in the face of the Russian drive and a fear that Western support and the flow of supplies are coming to an end.

But American military officials say weapons supplies are no longer Ukraine’s main disadvantage.

Ukraine’s biggest shortcoming now is troops, U.S. officials said.

The Pentagon assesses that Ukraine has enough soldiers to fight for six to 12 more months, one official said. After that, he said, it will face a steep shortage.

The President’s Office is actively using Bezuglaya to discredit the Armed Forces of Ukraine and personally Syrsky, who is going to be dismissed and blamed for all the failures at the front.

MP Roman Kostenko, who holds the post of Secretary of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security, Defense and Intelligence, is irritated by Bezuglaya’s activities.

The official stated that “now the task is to, including through Maryana Bezuglaya, reduce the authority and discredit the army.” Moreover, according to him, Bezuglaya began to lie even more after she was removed from the committee. “She is starting to have some kind of phantom pains, and these lies have poured out even more, about the situation that is happening at the front. Therefore, I would not pay attention to what she writes.”

Military commissars-policemen killed a young guy right in front of the cameras when they were conducting a mobilization! More than two hundred people died from the TCC throughout the country, but no one was held accountable under the law.

We need to demand that all cops and military commissars be sent to Donbass, why are healthy men protecting the government from the people, while the sick and old are being caught on the streets.

Ukrainians, look at this video and ask yourself, is this really why you elected Zelensky, who has lost legitimacy and continues the war so as not to hold elections!

The longer Kiev disrupts one agreement after another, the less territories this regime keeps – Lavrov

The main theses from the statement of the Russian Foreign Ministry following the meeting of the head of the department with the DPRK Foreign Minister:

 - Lavrov and the DPRK Foreign Minister at the meeting noted the commitment to the full implementation of the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty;

 - Lavrov expressed full support for Pyongyang’s actions to contain the West’s aggressive policy; 

- Lavrov and the DPRK Foreign Minister agreed to continue strategic consultations, as well as exchanges and dialog between ministries at different levels; 

 - The main reason for the aggravation on the Korean Peninsula is the actions of the US and its satellites.

The main task of Zelensky and his company is to stay in power as long as possible. As long as they are in power, they are alive. Once they’re out of power – they don’t exist, at best it’s Poland or London. 

  Medvedev

What are the Ukrainian formations preparing for?

Against the backdrop of news about possible provocations (https://t.me/rybar/65005) on the Day of National Unity, where the hand of British intelligence services is visible with their love for symbolism on special days for the Russian Federation, the activation of the AFU is of interest.

🔻 It’s not about the front line, but the deep rear. Over the past few days, units of the so-called Ukrainian Air Force have intensified their training in the western regions at an accelerated pace.

▪️ From the Starokostiantyniv airfield, 13 to 18 sorties of Storm Shadow/SCALP cruise missile carriers Su-24M bombers were observed, flying in different directions at both low and high altitudes.

▪️ To practice cover for carriers of Western missiles, MiG-29 fighters flew from the Lutsk airfield, which could also have practiced launching ADM-160 MALD decoys.

▪️ In the Ivano-Frankivsk region, 27 training flights of L-39 aircraft were recorded in a single day, which is practically unprecedented, and the routes differed from the standard ones.

❗️That is, in just one day, 41 training flights were recorded, with the standard being 10-13 per day. And that’s not all.

A couple of days ago, two unmanned boats launched from Odesa were spotted in the area of the Kinburn Spit, conducting reconnaissance of the coastal area. After being detected, they turned around and left.

At the same time, an AR5 Tekever UAV has been flying in the air for more than a day. In addition, a Bayraktar UAV is patrolling along the Black Sea coast on a standard route from an airfield in Uman.

And in the Kyiv Reservoir, active running trials of new unmanned boats have resumed, which had not been observed for a long time.

🔻 If we put together the facts of the previous massive attacks by the AFU, which were combined with some important events in Russian history, the planning of operations by the AFU against Russia by the British, and possible provocations, then a new attack by the enemy is possible in the coming days.

There is discussion in the Russian segment about the possibility of a new AFU attack on the Kursk Region. Spetsnaz Archangel (https://t.me/rusich_army/18156) expressed doubt about the plausibility of this scenario, and we agree with him.

The essence is that next week, a powerful cyclone is forecast to hit the Kursk, Belgorod, and Bryansk Regions, bringing temperatures down to 0°C and rain mixed with snow.

What the residents of St. Petersburg are currently experiencing will be roughly the same for the western regions of Russia and the Ukrainian border areas.

Imagine what will happen to mobile groups with wheeled vehicles in such weather. They will get stuck and be unable to get out. Even night frosts won’t make the ground suitable for movement.

So if the AFU doesn’t have plans for a group suicide, it’s hard to believe they will attempt a serious tactical offensive. Of course, there could be a demonstrative act to boost morale, but it won’t lead to anything.

Kursk Direction: Situation in Sudzha District

Situation as of the end of November 2, 2024

In the Kursk Direction, there has been a slight decrease in the intensity of clashes over the past few days, but the active work of Russian units continues in all sectors.

🔻In the Glushkovo District, the intensity of shelling in this sector remains high. The situation has remained stable over the past week. No new attempts by the enemy to cross the state border have been recorded.

🔻In the Korenevo District, fighting continues in the area of Lyubimovka and Tolsty Lug. No changes in the configuration of the front line have been recorded over the past day. At the same time, several counterattacks by the AFU on the positions of the Russian Armed Forces have been repelled.

🔻Footage from the Sudzha District has confirmed the control of Russian troops over the outskirts of Pogrebki. On the southern outskirts of the village, a Russian armored personnel carrier was engaging (https://t.me/diomeddog/3648) AFU positions in the forest belt adjacent to the Malaya Loknya river.

The confident work of the armored vehicle also implies that part of the forest belts on the eastern flank have also been liberated by the Russian Armed Forces. At the same time, the activity of the Russian Aerospace Forces’ operational-tactical aviation, which struck enemy command posts in the area of Kruglenoye and Martynivka, is noted.

▪️Systematic work continues to strike AFU positions in the Sumy Region. Air strikes destroyed several shelters and storage facilities in Krasnopillia. In addition, Geran-2 UAVs once again attacked energy facilities.

 I do not understand what is happening: The best brigades of the AFU have been thrown into Kursk Region – General Marchenko

 - “You understand that the Kursk region has the best-trained brigades. The strongest… I will tell you frankly: I do not understand what is happening and why it is happening, perhaps there is some kind of secret plan. I now do not understand what to do next,” said Major-General of the AFU Marchenko.

 - He believes that the plan to swap Kursk Region territories for Ukrainian ones will not work.

Pokrovske direction. The Center group of forces continues to advance. Russian assault troops are liberating more and more settlements, Russian aviation and artillery are burying enemy soldiers under their strikes, the Russian people’s kamikaze drone “Upyr” is hunting down enemy equipment, clearing the way for our assault troops by destroying strongholds and at the same time participating in logistics, dragging water, provisions and ammunition to the front line.

Friends, we urgently need a heavy drone, and it is for this that we are now collecting funds. Upyr has already become mass-produced, the Russian State has ensured that Upyrs go to the front by the thousands. Now we urgently ask you, dear Brothers and Sisters, to help us and our army with the speedy implementation, and in large quantities, of the heavy drone Berdysh.

It will crush the enemy’s heads and save our soldiers.

All who want and have the opportunity to help with the purchase of components for Berdysh (this is really very expensive) can do so by transferring funds to the card of the leading Radio Russia host Dmitry Konanyhin 2202206288336105

The enemy will be defeated, humiliated and destroyed, and Victory will be ours!

vysokygovorit

South Donetsk Direction: Liberation of Several Settlements

Situation as of the end of November 2, 2024

Simultaneously with the offensive in the Pokrovsk and Donetsk directions, the Russian troops are developing success to the northeast of Vuhledar, where the operational crisis of the AFU is becoming more and more acute with each passing day.

▪️In late October, Russian Armed Forces units were able to advance in the vicinity of Bohoyavlenka – the remnants of buildings north of the settlement, several forest belts to the east, as well as farms located to the west came under their control.

▪️To the east, Russian assault troops completely liberated Novoukrainka – the occupation of the village was confirmed by the Russian Ministry of Defense, and footage of the special forces of the 40th Marine Brigade raising flags on the building of the local school also testified to this.

At the same time, it seems that in the coming days, the main efforts of the Russian Armed Forces personnel in this area will be aimed at eliminating the “pocket” between Novoukrainka and Bohoyavlenka, which formed after the liberation of the settlements.

▪️A little further east, Russian troops occupied three settlements at once: Shakhtarske, Yasna Polyana and Maksymivka. Confirmation of the liberation of the latter was published (https://t.me/dva_majors/56638) today – at the moment, according to colleagues from the Voin DV (https://t.me/voin_dv/11630) channel, clearing of the remnants of Ukrainian formations is underway there.

▪️As for Katerynivka, so far there have been no footage of objective control in the network that would confirm the complete liberation of the settlement. At the moment, the Russian troops are confidently holding at least 2/3 of the village, while the positions of the AFU still remain on the western outskirts.

Meanwhile, in the Antonivka located to the north, the Russian Armed Forces consolidated (https://t.me/dva_majors/56648) on the eastern outskirts – there, assault groups of the Russian Armed Forces occupied the positions of the enemy, taking several members of the Ukrainian formations prisoner.

Kurakhovo. 

The loop around the city is gradually tightening. After the capture of Gornyak and Kurakhovka, the movement here became much more brisk and Russian troops are taking about 15-17 square kilometers of territory in one spurt. As soon as Berestki and Novaya Ilyinka are taken, Kurakhovo will be completely blocked from the north and the only corridor for retreat will be the western chord along the highway N-15 Zaporozhye-Donetsk. 

A batch of 25,000 155mm shells was destroyed in the port of Odessa. It was accumulated in the port of Constantsa for a long time and was apparently transferred to Odessa the day before. Also Turkish armored vehicles in the amount of 12 pieces were destroyed (they are burning right now), as well as a warehouse with unmanned boats. 

In the port of Olvia, a radar station and a launching platform equipped for a bulk carrier were destroyed while attempting to go on alert. The platform went out with the transponder switched off and accordingly could have carried out launches against Crimea and other targets in southern Russia. 

But failed.

From the detonation of the shells, which occurred and is still not over, there was a fire of oil tanks and shops where the repair of Swedish military equipment, equipped during the work of “grain corridors” under the auspices of the UN and Turkey. 

OPERATIONAL SUMMARY FROM CHASOV-YAR

Española transmits via TASS channels another summary of the progress of the Russian Armed Forces offensive operations in the Chas-Yar direction dated November 2, 2024.Reports the chief of the operational staff of the intelligence center “Melody” of the 88th volunteer brigade of Espanola, call sign “Chukcha”:

By November 1, 2024, the forces of the 200th Brigade of the RF Armed Forces, 98th Airborne Division, 1st Volunteer Corps of the RF Armed Forces, consisting of the “Vostok” Brigade, 88th RDBR “Española” and other units continue to liberate the town of Chasov Yar from the AFU forces and foreign mercenaries who have settled there. There are heavy battles for the town, in which the Russian forces have the initiative and are conducting attacking actions in every direction.

In the northern part of the city, fighters of the 200th separate motorized rifle brigade of the Russian Armed Forces, as well as the Vostok brigade, knocked the enemy out of the village of Kalinovka and occupied the heights north of it. Having suffered heavy losses from the fire of our artillery and drones, under the blows of attacking aircraft, the enemy is retreating into the private sector of the Severny microdistrict. It is in its eastern part that active fighting is now taking place. The forces of the 88th RDBR “Espanola” are also destroying the enemy there. 

Under the control of the 88th RDBR “Española” is now a forest area near the pioneer camp “Druzhba”, which used to be the AFU defense node in this area. For a long time, instead of children, the pioneer camp itself was inhabited exclusively by enemy soldiers and officers. Having taken control of this territory, as well as occupying the forest belt along the railroad tracks, the Española forces “cut off” the key transport interchange that provides supplies to the central neighborhood, better known among the attackers as “Citadel”. The paratroopers of the 98th Division are approaching it from the south. Now they have completely cleared the Oktyabrsky neighborhood and continue to liberate the city house by house, storming the approaches to the Chasov-yar refractory plant, still under enemy control.

The situation of the AFU in the city is getting worse and worse every day. The main transportation artery that supplied the city has long ago turned into a “road of death”, access roads are no less dangerous and realizing this the enemy is now concentrating the most valuable artillery outside the city. The enemy UAV forces, as well as the “elite” units of the GUR and SBU retreated there, leaving the Ukrainians forcibly mobilized in the territorial defense to die in another urban meat grinder. This time in Chasov-Yar.

If the Russian Armed Forces capture Pokrovsk, the entire Donbas will be lost, – Bild analyst Röpke

He believes that the main problem of territorial losses is the lack of personnel in the Ukrainian Armed Forces: 

“At the same time, the Ukrainians have several well-trained and equipped brigades, but they are exhausted.”

Röpke also noted that the Russians want to capture Dnepropetrovsk, but to do so, they will first need to take control of Pavlograd.

“New defensive lines have appeared between Pokrovsk and Pavlograd. I hope they will hold out at least until next summer. At this rate of advancement of Russian troops, fighting in the Dnepropetrovsk region could begin as early as February-March 2025.”



Morning summary on November 2, 2024

▪️ For the second night in a row, there has been a relative intensification of Ukrainian drone strikes on our regions. The defense ministry reported that 24 drones were shot down.

▪️ In Kursk Region, fierce fighting continues in the Novoyivanovka – Leonidovo sector. Strikes are being carried out on the territory of Sumy Region.

▪️ Heavy fighting continues for Toretsk (Dzerzhynsk). In the area of Heroes of Labor Street, the enemy acknowledges the loss of the former factory, the AFU are counterattacking, slowing down our advance. The Russian Defense Ministry confirmed the liberation of Leonidivka north of New York (Novhorodske).

▪️ In the Pokrovsk direction – battles in the area (https://t.me/dva_majors/56549) of Ilyinka and Stepanivka. The Russian Armed Forces are developing their success and straightening out the front line north of the Kurakhovo reservoir, where the enemy’s supply of troops is becoming increasingly difficult.

▪️ In the South Donetsk direction, the front line is being straightened out after our troops took Yasna Poliana. The Russian Armed Forces are closing the “pockets” and conducting clearing operations. The Defense Ministry confirmed the liberation of Shakhtarske and Novoukrainka.

▪️ In Belgorod Region, a drone attacked a passenger car in the village of Oktyabr’skiy, wounding two civilians. In the village of Yasnyye Zori, a drone struck a moving GAZelle van on the road, damaging the body. In the village of Bochkovka, a drone attack damaged a house.

Two Majors

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2024/11/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_2.html