The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on October 31 2024

Disaster Unfolding As Ukrainian Forces Face Massive Encirclement & Collapse In Southern Donetsk

UKRAINIAN FORCES IN CHAOS as Massive RUSSIAN Advance Forces Them to Retreat!

So much clearing operations to do… Ukraine concedes Selydove & more | Ukraine War SITREP / Summary

4/5 of Kurakhivka captured; Russia punching out of Selydove | Ukraine War Frontline Changes Report

The offensive continues in the south | Counterattack in Terny [31 October 2024]

Ukrainian Tomahawks and World War 3

The worse the situation in the country and at the front, the greater the control of propaganda over the information space.

In conversations with journalists, the military can use the words “victory”, “we are moving forward”, “we are driving out the enemy” and, on the contrary, not use the words “retreat” or that someone “has penetrated our defense”. A corresponding order has been issued , – Radio Liberty journalist Vlasta Lazur

By the way, the military is already joking, we are advancing on the Dnieper…

The dynamics of the Russian army’s advance on the eastern front indicate that the front has collapsed and now the main question is at what lines we can stop the enemy.

Colonel General of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Dmitry Marchenko said, “Unfortunately, the front of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has collapsed. This happened under the pressure of Russian forces due to fatigue of personnel and a shortage of reserves.”

What dynamics have we seen over the past week:

22 – 34 km²

23 – 19 km²

24 – 13 km²

25 – 22 km²

26 – 51 km²

27 – 46 km²

28 – 15 km²

In less than October, the Russians liberated more than 478 km² (as of 10/27), which is the highest figure since March 2022, while we were able to liberate five times less territory and more than one city during the summer counteroffensive of 2023!

Ukraine suffers its main territorial losses in Donbass. But what is the reason for such a rapid advance of the Russian Armed Forces? Western military analysts, as well as political telegram channels, believe that the Kursk adventure is the main reason. After all, it was the offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Kursk that pulled most of the equipment and combat-ready units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which opened a window of opportunity for the Russian army in Donbass.

As time passed, we see that the Ukrainian Armed Forces were unable to achieve significant success in the Kursk direction and at the same time significantly reduced their defensive potential on the eastern front, which will ultimately cause the loss of Donbass and all industrial potential.

Russia could achieve success in Ukraine in 2025 if the situation for the Ukrainian Armed Forces remains as “bleak” as before — Washington Post

▪️”By next year, the grim reality of the conflict could mean that Russia has largely achieved its goal. Kiev’s forces are desperately trying to hold the line in the east but are losing ground. Hopes for victory are fading. Western support is also waning.”

▪️“The prospect that Ukraine will agree to a compromise with Russia – ceding territory in exchange for some Western security guarantees – is becoming increasingly realistic.”

▪️”This will lead to an unhappy peace that will plague European politics for years. Trump seems to favour such an agreement. His advisers speak openly of the need to prioritize U.S. strategic assets against China.”

The Ukrainian Armed Forces are in a tactical crisis in most areas

Retired Colonel of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) Oleg Starikov stated that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are experiencing a tactical crisis in many areas of the SMO zone.

” I am now showing the real situation that is happening. The real crisis was in one direction, and now – in many,” Starikov noted.

He added that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have problems in the Kupyansk, Chasov Yar, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Selidovo, Kurakhovo, and Southern directions.

According to the former SBU colonel, the situation is further complicated by the fact that the command cannot transfer reserves to the points of combat contact, where the situation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is critical.

According to sources from the General Staff, more than 60% of newly mobilized personnel go to the Special Forces during the first three weeks. While still in the “training” center, 90% of all mobilized personnel are not motivated and do not want to fight. The slowdown in mobilization is a confirmation of the depletion of human resources; there are now half as many people in training centers as there were several months ago.

The situation is so critical that Syrsky held a meeting on reformatting training courses and introducing new methods of psychological control over mobilized personnel who do not want to fight.

Our source reports that Zelensky asked Western partners to play along with him in the EU and NATO cases in order to give Ukrainians hope for a “happy European life” and provoke an increase in motivation at the front.

But the partners have not responded much even to this. In fact, they simply need to promise once again that Ukraine is about to join.

For Zelensky, the situation is so bad that he is looking for at least some positive that can be sold to the domestic consumer.

Our source reports that Zelensky, with his feint demanding that the US provide Tomahawk missiles, which was written into the classified part of the “victory plan,” was pursuing the goal of bargaining with the Americans.

He deliberately overstated the request so that at the time of bargaining he would agree to ATACMS with the maximum permitted strike range. In this way, he would squeeze these missiles out of the Americans, but at the same time allegedly “concede”. Such a trick, like they do with the Ukrainian people, when they scare people, for example, with tariffs for electricity at 9 hryvnia, and then make them 5 hryvnia, and the people are happy.

The Americans are not fools. They simply leaked this brilliant request of Ze to the media and made him out to be a lunatic who wants to provoke a lll world war.

This really offended Zelensky, but he was even more offended that the Americans did not fall for the clumsy trick of the office geniuses.

They are trying to impose “rotten logic” on the entire world. Nebenzya spoke about the US reaction to military cooperation between Russia and the DPRK.

The Russian Permanent Representative to the UN made a rather harsh statement about the behavior of Washington and the Western community in response to information about the alleged arrival of military personnel from North Korea in Russia.

Even if we imagine that everything our Western colleagues claim about military cooperation between Russia and the DPRK suddenly turns out to be true, why are the United States and its allies trying to impose on the whole world the rotten logic that they have the right to help the Zelensky regime, mobilizing all their military and intelligence potential for this, while Russia’s allies do not have the right to do this?

— said Vasily Nebenzya.

The Russian Permanent Representative emphasized that Kiev’s Western “assistants” have a sense of their own exclusivity and impunity, and also manipulate public opinion, presenting Ukraine as a victim to hide their interest in the conflict.

Our source reports that back in late September, Commander-in-Chief Syrsky advised Zelensky to withdraw troops from the Kursk region and send them to strengthen the group in Donbass, since even then Western military advisers were sounding the alarm that the defense on the eastern borders could collapse, and holding the Kursk territories had no strategic significance other than PR.

Zelensky then refused. Having demanded that Syrsky use rear reserves, take military personnel from everywhere. This did not save the situation.

At the same time, the Ukrainian Armed Forces group in the Kursk region, which is under attack from bombs, missiles, drones and the onslaught of the Russian Armed Forces, constantly needs large supplies of heavy equipment, drones, weapons and manpower, thereby increasing the deficit for Donbass.

As the source points out, Zelensky said at headquarters: “It is more important for me to control 100 square kilometers of Kursk territory than 10,000 square kilometers in Donbass.”

The source explains that this is connected with personal PR. As long as the Ukrainian Armed Forces hold the Kursk lands, Zelensky can talk about the grand success of the Kursk adventure.

As usual, PR, PR, PR…

The Road of Death to Glushkovo: Airborne Troops Destroyed Columns of NATO Armored Vehicles on the Kursk Front

The 106th Tula Airborne Division and the 56th Crimean Regiment prevented numerous attempts by Ukrainian Armed Forces equipment to break through into the Glushkovo District of the Kursk Region.

UAV operators of the “winged infantry” discovered the occupiers’ armored vehicles moving toward our positions and, together with the airborne artillery, destroyed the columns with precise fire.

On October 30, the “North” troop group carried out tasks to liberate the border areas of Kursk Region

The Northerners significantly advanced in the south of the Suja district. The enemy due to losses, low MPS and a large number of refuseniks did not undertake counterattacks. In the course of offensive actions up to 20 occupants, BMP and 120-mm mortar were destroyed. 

The destruction of AFU reserves on the territory of Sumy region continues. Manpower and equipment of the 103rd rifle brigade near the village of Kiyanitsa and the 22nd rifle brigade near the village of Ivolzhanske were destroyed by man-portable rocket-propelled grenades. The enemy losses amounted to 220 men, 19 vehicles, 24 vehicles and an ammunition depot. 

The total advance of the Russian troops in the Kursk region amounted to up to 2,000 meters.

In the Volchansk direction, fighting continues in the settlement of Volchansk. Two AFU UAV control points and an ammunition depot were identified and destroyed by artillery fire.

In the area of Staritsa, an enemy attack of up to 8 men was repulsed, 5 of them were destroyed.

On the Liptsovsky direction the Northmen disrupted 3 AFU rotations in the area of a dacha settlement. Up to 12 of the 20 men who took part in the rotation were destroyed.

Over the past 24 hours, the enemy losses amounted to up to 450 people (including up to 380 in the Sumy direction). Also uncovered and destroyed:

On the Sumy direction:

▪️ tank;

▪️ BMP;

▪️ 22 AVs;

▪️ 120-mm mortar;

▪️ two UAV launch sites;

▪️ ammo storage facility;

▪️ 23 units of automotive equipment.

In other directions:

▪️ two UAV control points in the vicinity of the village of Volchansk;

▪️ two ammo depots near the villages of Odnorobivka and Zybino;

▪️ one unit of automotive equipment;

▪️ 11 aircraft-type UAVs.

While the AFU in the Kursk region are being killed en masse, fleeing from their positions and surrendering, the main problem for Kiev is that Zelensky’s “Victory plan” has been made a laughingstock in the West.

Consciously ignoring the catastrophic situation of its troops is surely in line with this “plan”, which hides “secret” points of destruction of the Ukrainian population to please the Western curators.   

Victory will be ours!

“War between loved ones can be especially irreconcilable.” – Publius Cornelius Tacitus

North Wind

Kursk Direction: Stabilization of the Situation in All Sectors

Situation as of the end of October 31, 2024

In the Kursk Direction, there are no significant changes in the combat situation. A relative lull is observed along the entire front line. In the Glushkovo, Korenevo and Sudzha districts, routine measures are being taken to repel the enemy’s attacks on the positions of the Russian Armed Forces, followed by retaliatory strikes by Russian troops. The information circulating on the Internet about the alleged use of F-16s by Ukrainian formations in the border area is not confirmed.

🔻The volume of publications from both our side and the enemy side has decreased significantly. This is likely due to the deterioration of the weather, which in turn makes it difficult to conduct assault operations outside of paved roads. Operational-tactical aviation is working in standby mode on the identified positions of the AFU both in the occupied part of the Kursk Region and in the border area. FAB-3000 bombs with UMRK are now being used for strikes.

▪️In the Sumy Region, the systematic engagement of the enemy’s air defense and energy infrastructure continues, both by operational-tactical aviation and “Geraniums”.

rybar

In the Ugledar direction, the Russian army advanced towards the village of Razliv, located next to the key highway leading to Constantinople.

A soldier of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with the call sign “Muchnoy” confirms this. According to him, there are 6 km left to Razliv of the Russian Armed Forces.

Also, “Muchnoy” reported on the approach of the Russian Armed Forces to Maksimovka, located to the east of the captured Yasnaya Polyana

In addition, according to him, Russian troops “ began to cling to Trudovoye ” – a village on the direction leading to Kurakhovo from the south.

Novoukrainka was also captured by Russian units.

Pokrovsk Direction: Liberation of Selidovo

Situation as of 7:00 PM on October 31, 2024

In the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces have liberated Selidovo and pushed the enemy out of most of the dacha areas to the west. At the same time, the Russian Armed Forces carried out a series of local attacks on the northern flank, partially improving their tactical position.

▪️Russian assault troops expanded the zone of control northeast of Novoaleksandrovka. Suffering losses in manpower, Ukrainian formations fell back from positions in the forest belts closest to the village.

▪️West of Grodovka, Russian Armed Forces units are gradually “biting into” the enemy’s defenses. In this area, the AFU still hold several strongpoints that impede the advance of Russian troops towards Mikhailovka.

▪️East of Sukhyi Yar, Ukrainian formations are defending with support from forest belts in the area of the railway tracks.

On the southern outskirts of Mirnograd, the enemy has set up temporary deployment points and UAV positions. The Russian Aerospace Forces regularly strike this area, disrupting communications and destroying AFU personnel.

▪️Russian Armed Forces units have completely liberated Selidovo, driving Ukrainian formations out of positions on the northwestern outskirts of the city. The internet regularly features new footage (https://t.me/btr80/21703) from Russian soldiers demonstrating the raising of the flag of the 114th Motorized Rifle Brigade and the Russian flag in various parts of the city.

❗️It is worth noting that the settlement itself did not suffer too seriously during the fighting – most buildings sustained only superficial damage. Sources on the ground report a large number of civilians found during the city’s clearing operations.

Apparently, despite the significant time for the evacuation of the population, Ukrainian formations did not carry out systematic work in this direction. Russian units are currently checking documents, providing first aid, and evacuating people to the rear.

▪️After establishing control over the northwestern outskirts of the city, Russian assault troops “on the heels” of the retreating enemy entered the “Zemlany” dacha settlement.

In the battles that unfolded here, Ukrainian formations suffered losses in equipment and personnel. In particular, on one of the streets, Russian UAV operators destroyed (https://t.me/sudoplatov_official/3242) a MaxxPro armored vehicle transporting AFU personnel.

At the moment, at least half of the settlement’s territory is under the control of the Russian Armed Forces. Its final liberation, given the current configuration of the front, is only a matter of time.

▪️South of Vishnevoe, Russian troops pushed the AFU out of several positions in the forest belts. The Russian Armed Forces also broke through the defense of Ukrainian formations in the area of Novodmytrivka.

By October 28, assault troops had driven the enemy from a strongpoint northeast of the village, allowing them to develop their success and reach its eastern outskirts.

rybar

The front line near Pokrovsk is buzzing louder and louder every day.

After a temporary lull, primarily due to a short rest of the troops and regrouping after the capture of Selidovo, the Russian Aerospace Forces and artillery are gradually intensifying their work in the Novopavlovka-Dachenskoye area (5 km south of the city), which means that the battle for Pokrovsk will soon begin.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces are bringing in reserves from the Kharkov region and the border region with Belarus. Many units are arriving from Pavlograd and Dnepropetrovsk, there are units from the Zaporozhye and Kherson directions.

Around Kurakhovo, the front line has been straightened. 

There are still pockets of resistance in some places, but nothing serious. The Kurakhovo reservoir is being cleared from the north, and from the south the Vostok group is responsible for straightening the frontline near Novoukrainka and Bogoyavlenka. Good options for the AFU in this area are coming to an end. Russian troops do not move forward without aviation. First FABs, then infantry. The AFU garrison in Kurakhovo can only watch the ring tightening around it. There is less and less strength to fight back. If the order to retreat is given (and it will probably come soon), there are great chances to take Kurakhovo warm and intact, like Selidovo and Novogrodovka.

Military Chronicle

“The Russians are trying to push our guys out of their positions,” – Besedin, head of the Kupyansk city administration.

According to him, the Russian army is pressing along the entire front line, throwing in a large number of manpower and equipment. The Russian Armed Forces are trying to finish off and push out the Ukrainian Armed Forces from their positions and have local successes. There is an exit to the Oskol River in certain areas, as well as an approach to Kupyansk itself, which is 2.5-3 km away.

Lately there have been a lot of flights around Kharkov.

The authorities claim that an FAB (air bomb) landed, but the destruction is minimal for a bomb (that’s what we think, looking at the video of the destruction).

It feels like someone is deliberately escalating the situation with the tragedies in Kharkov.

Let us explain why they might do this.

1. Shift the information focus. Everyone is not discussing the retreat of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in all directions. Not the encirclements and mini-cauldrons where Ukrainian soldiers find themselves because of the Ze-headquarters, not that Bankova prohibits its soldiers from leaving the encirclement when there is still a “road”. Everyone is discussing the “Russian bomb” hitting a residential building. But is it a bomb? Is it Russian?

2. With such a series of mini-tragedies, Bankovaya again wants to increase the degree of hatred in society towards the Russian Federation and the rejection of the peace case. Also to get the approval of society to tighten the already tough mobilization. People will be caught even more, like cattle.

3. In this way, Bankova creates news items to promote itself in the Western press and warm up the case for continuing the war.

Ukrainians must understand that the continuation of any war means loss of life, tragedies, catastrophes, destruction, etc.

Of course, we do not deny that a stray bomb could have landed, but when there is a series of such mini-tragedies, then this raises doubts.

And let’s add that Israel drops bombs on Gaza and Lebanon every day into residential buildings, where dozens of children and hundreds of civilians die. Entire buildings are actually being demolished there. If Bankova manages to raise the level of hatred, which they most likely do, then something similar awaits Ukrainian cities.

ThinkTE

This night the Russian Armed Forces inflicted attack on the road-rail bridge in Zatoka, Odessa region

This information is confirmed on Ukrainian Telegram channels.

The bridge is the only railway line connecting the west of the region with the main territory of Ukraine and is used to transport Western weapons and equipment.

In the evening, two Iskanders and 8 Air-to-Surface missiles, most likely Kh-59, struck a bridge in the village of Zatoka Odessa region.

The logistics of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Dniester estuary have been completely destroyed.

Chronicles of the special military operation

for October 31, 2024

Russian forces struck enemy targets with drones in Kyiv, Cherkasy and Dnipropetrovsk Regions, and also launched a dozen missiles at a bridge in Zatoka, Odesa Region.

Ukrainian formations, in turn, attacked fuel and energy facilities in Ufa with drones. Several more UAVs were shot down over Volgograd. Ten UAVs attacked the seaport in Berdyansk, but the port’s operation was not disrupted.

In the Pokrovsk direction, the Russian forces slightly expanded their control zone west of Selidovo.

In the Donetsk direction, the Russian Armed Forces took control of most of Kurakhivka, advancing towards Volchanka.

In the South Donetsk direction, clashes continue in the area of Shakhtarsk and Novoukrainka.

Morning Summary on October 31, 2024

▪️ In the Kursk Region, the “North” grouping of troops reports advancing in the south of the Sudzha district. The enemy did not launch counterattacks due to losses, low morale, and a large number of refusals. In the Sumy Region, strikes by long-range missiles destroyed concentrations of personnel and equipment of the 103rd Territorial Defense Brigade near Kiyanytsya and the 22nd Motorized Brigade near Ivolzhanske.

▪️ In the Kharkiv Region (https://t.me/dva_majors/56360), the line of contact remains unchanged. Our forces are using thermobaric weapons to destroy AFU positions in Volchansk.

▪️ From the Sumy Region, there are continued reports of the enemy building up forces in the area of the previously forcibly evacuated city of Shostka. Local authorities have been quartering military personnel in abandoned homes. Additionally, draft evasion is increasing in this region amid the difficult situation for the AFU in neighboring Kursk Region.

▪️ In the Kupiansk direction, the Russian Armed Forces are expanding their control zone near Synkivka and Kruhlakivka. Conditions are being created for an advance from Kruhlakivka southward, along the Oskil River, towards Zahryziivka.

▪️ In the Pokrovsk direction, the enemy’s resources acknowledge that the Russian Armed Forces have captured the enrichment plant west of Kurakhove, reporting on “brothers” who have surrendered.

▪️ In the Konstantinopol direction (northwest of Vuhledar), the Russian Armed Forces continue their offensive. According to the enemy’s assessment, the front line in the Yasna Poliana area is becoming more complicated for the AFU. Our troops have begun moving towards the villages of Rozliv and Maksymivka. North of the recently captured Bohoyavlenka, the advanced units of the Russian Army are operating near Trudove. There is a visible plan to reach the outskirts of the important fortified area of Kurakhove from the south, with about 12 km remaining from the current line of contact.

▪️ In the Belgorod Region, the arrival of ammunition in the village of Otradnoye of the Belgorod district wounded four civilians. Three women received various shrapnel wounds, and a man suffered a closed head injury. In the village of Dvuluchnoye of the Valuyki municipal district, a kamikaze drone attacked a residential building. In the city of Shebekino, a UAV attacked a social facility. In the Shebekino municipal district, in the village of Nezhegoľ, the windows of a residential building were blown out by a UAV attack. Another drone dropped an explosive device on a private household. The village of Murom was subjected to artillery shelling and an attack by an FPV drone. There, a UAV also struck a moving passenger car. In the village of Repyakhovka of the Krasnoyaruzhsky district, a UAV dropped an explosive device.

▪️ In the DPR, in the village of Staromikhailovka, a man born in 1960 was injured by an PFM-1 “Lepestok” mine. In the Nikitovsky district of Horlivka, a woman born in 1984 was wounded as a result of the enemy’s use of barrel artillery.

Two Majors

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2024/10/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_31.html