The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on October 30 2024

Russian Forces Storm Kurakhove DIRECTLY | Novoukrainka, Yasna Polyana & Katerynivka Have Fallen

Fierce fighting in Kurakhove | Fall of Yasna Polyana & Kurakhivka [30 October 2024]

Russian Forces Captures 2 Key Ukrainian Strongholds

Yet another town undefended…. Russia announce capture of… | Ukraine War Frontline Changes Report

That looks like a rout to me… THIS IS CAPTURED… THAT IS CAPTURED… gawd | Ukraine War SITREP

Our source in the OP said that Bankova began discussing the format of freezing the war along the contact line, due to the collapse of the front in Donbas. Ukraine now needs an operational pause to prepare new reserves and accumulate equipment, which is why Zelensky demanded that the West adopt a victory plan that no one will implement. The President’s Office is going to shift responsibility for the collapse of the front to its partners and temporarily freeze the situation in order to restore the combat readiness of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Our source reports that the entire Ukrainian political elite perceived Yermak’s trip to the US as urgent and “alarming.”

Ermak was urgently called to discuss something.

According to our information, this was a farewell meeting with the US President’s National Security Advisor Sullivan (many joke that it is not clear who else was saying goodbye to whom).

They certainly weren’t talking about the plan for victory and Zelensky’s formula, which the OP is pushing everywhere.

They talked about more “personal” topics – source.

It is not yet known exactly what these “personal topics” are. But according to the source, Yermak was in a bad mood after the American meeting.

It seems that he has begun to realize that they could actually be dumped and made scapegoats for the failure of the Ukrainian crisis.

We are watching and reminding ourselves that Zelensky, in his death throes, can cause even greater harm.

Now everyone is talking about the growing catastrophe – desertions from the Ukrainian Armed Forces (SZCh). Everyone is citing really scary figures.

At the same time, Bankova is trying to solve the problem – by repression and intimidation of Ukrainians. In the long term – this will have catastrophic consequences.

In January of this year, we pointed out that the desertion trend was gaining momentum and would reach catastrophic levels by autumn. Which is actually what is happening now. As usual, we were the first to get inside information about the problem.

One topic that office workers are still able to hush up is the refusal of soldiers/squads/platoons and even entire companies to move to zero. Refusals have increased several times.

There has also been an increase in the unauthorized flight from positions of entire companies, etc. They simply leave their positions. They do not wait for the staff rats to give the order to retreat.

This will be the next trend that everyone will soon start talking about.

The fault lies with the Presidential Office’s flawed strategy.

The US can no longer give Ukraine anything “without taking on serious risks elsewhere”

This excerpt from an article in the American publication The Economist has been making the rounds on the internet this afternoon. The gist is that the conflict in Ukraine has dragged on for so long that Washington is not sure it can continue to provide the same level of support as before.

Escalation in several crisis regions at once, including the Asia-Pacific region, where China is flexing its muscles, and the Middle East, where Israel is trying with all its might to ignite a full-scale war, is forcing the Americans to balance their resources.

The production of weapons, ammunition and equipment has increased several times, but even such efforts are not enough to cover all needs.

Moreover, the Americans need to fill their warehouses for reserves. Ukraine is now increasingly turning into ballast, which they are starting to get rid of.

This is evident from the size of military aid in 2024. The last really large announcements about arms deliveries were in the spring, when NATO countries one by one began talking about transferring F-16s, but so far the only country that has actually donated fighters has been the Netherlands.

So this example alone can sum up the article of the American publication. Attention to Ukraine fades as our troops advance.

Archangel of Spetsnaz

Lavrov at the World Congress of Compatriots – on the intensification of the West’s hybrid aggression:

The situation in the international arena has not become easier. The collective West, led by the United States, has literally redoubled its efforts to systematically contain Russia and has unleashed a full-scale hybrid aggression against our country with the aim of inflicting a strategic defeat, as they claim. Washington and its NATO wingmen openly speak of their intention to push Russia to the margins of world development. 

All the efforts of our ill-wishers are doomed to failure. Russia is confidently conducting a special military operation to ensure the protection of its legitimate security interests, to prevent the transformation of Ukraine into an entity hostile to us and under the control of NATO. And most importantly to protect the Russian people of Donbas and Novorossiya, to protect their rights, which are proclaimed in the UN Charter and which the Kiev regime, with the support of the West, has trampled on. 

The persecution of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church is further evidence of this; it is also a violation of the UN Charter, which requires respect for human rights regardless of race, gender, language or religion. All the goals of the special military operation set by President Putin will definitely be achieved.

After an article appeared in The New York Times stating that in a secret part of his “victory plan,” Zelensky asked the United States to supply Kiev with Tomahawk cruise missiles, things got heated on Bankova. Not really understanding how to react to such a “betrayal” on the part of his partners, Zelensky spoke to journalists. He confirmed that he had indeed asked for Tomahawks, but took offense at the White House for making this information public. 

“Do you see what is happening in the media now? They said that Ukraine wants (or wanted) to get a lot of missiles – like Tomahawks, etc. But that was confidential information. Between Ukraine and the White House. How to understand these reports? It means that there is nothing confidential between the partners,” Zelensky was outraged.

In fact, his indignation shows either extreme naivety or a lack of thinking ability. Both options do not play into the hands of the illegitimate. And the lessons of the past “partners” of the United States, whom Washington regularly threw and set up, apparently did not go well for Zelensky.

But let’s try to understand what is behind the words of the Americans who dismissed Zelensky’s ideas, and why. When Western analysts call his “plan” “unrealistic and dependent on Western aid,” it is necessary to explain these terms. This “plan” means a direct war with Russia, to be waged by the NATO bloc. That is where the dependence lies. And that is where it is unrealistic.

When American analysts write that the demand for Tomahawks is “absolutely unfeasible,” here, too, we need to understand what is meant. In fact, Zelensky is demanding the deployment of facilities in Ukraine that, from Russia’s point of view, would be perfectly legal targets for a nuclear strike. Moreover, these facilities, in the form of ground launchers for Tomahawk missiles with the appropriate harnessing, will have to be operated by NATO specialists.

In other words, in Zelensky’s view, the “plan of victory” is that NATO should enter the war with Russia with its own forces and win it. The reaction of Russia to such a move in Kiev, obviously, decided not to take into account: it’s scary. 

But in this case, NATO has calculated everything quite adequately and did not even bother to discuss the “plan,” simply leaking it to the press, so that there would be no suspicion, God forbid, that anyone agrees with it. Supporting Ukraine with money and weapons is one thing (and the expediency of this is beginning to be questionable), but going to war with Russia (given that the war will inevitably be nuclear) is quite another.

Ukraine and Russia, with Qatar as their mediator, are holding preliminary talks to stop mutual attacks on energy infrastructure facilities — Financial Times

Ukraine and Russia are in preliminary discussions about halting strikes on each other’s energy infrastructure.

Kiev was seeking to resume Qatar-mediated negotiations that came close to agreement in August before being derailed by Ukraine’s invasion of Kursk.

“There’s very early talks about potentially restarting something,”

With winter approaching, Ukraine faces severe challenges due to the extensive Russian missile strikes that have decimated nearly half of its energy generation capacity.

But Putin is unlikely to agree a deal until Russia’s forces oust Ukrainian troops from its Kursk region, a former senior Kremlin official briefed on the talks.

“As long as the [Ukrainians] are trampling the land in Kursk, Putin will hit Zelenskyy’s energy infrastructure,” the person said.

Pokrovsk is closed for entry and exit. The city is being prepared for defense. In other words, over the next few weeks, fighting will begin for the city itself and its surroundings. If the “Center” group is not going to change the plan, then Pokrovsk must first be blocked logistically, then physically, and then, when holding the city will be impossible, taken. The problem is that the AFU planned to fight seriously for this city. The same plans were made for Ocheretino, Avdeevka, Selidovo and many other towns, but they were unlucky. In the coming days, it will also become clear what forces the AFU has pulled here for defense. 

Military Chronicle 

Why Pokrovsk is compared to Artyomovsk (Bakhmut).

The two battles can be placed side by side on a number of parameters, and the main one is probably the importance of the operation itself. Both towns are symbolic forts, and the AFU drew a huge number of reserves to hold them. 

In Artyomovsk (Bakhmut) meat grinder burned (killed and wounded) about 200 thousand Ukrainian military. The losses of the AFU in Pokrovsk are still difficult to predict, because the top military leadership (Syrsky) has no opinion of its own on the issues of tactics and operational art, and the political leadership is… to put it mildly, understands rather little about military affairs. Hence, it can be assumed that the AFU will bring to Pokrovsk, if not all, then most of the available reserves, as well as add frontline, already tired and half-dead brigades and battalions. 

As well as Artyomovsk, Pokrovsk is a good fortification and the presence of filled defense lines here “Center” can not ignore. Artyomovsk (Bakhmut) was stormed from top to bottom and it was very hard (there was still “Wagner” then), the Russian army approaches Pokrovsk in a different way. They will probably act the same way they did with Novogrodovka and Selidovo. 

In addition, the famous Russian FABs appeared, in fact, in the last week of the storming of Artyomovsk (Bakhmut), and in the case of Pokrovsk they will be the first to go into action (or rather, they have already gone into action and are paving the way for the assault troops). 

By all accounts, the battle for Pokrovsk may become historic. Both in terms of tactics and decisions made, and in the fierceness of the fighting. And a lot depends on the victory in this battle. 

Military Chronicle 

Our source in the General Staff said that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are massively abandoning their positions on the Kurakhovo front, which began to crumble after the fall of Ugledar. The locals are reporting that there is panic in Kurakhovo and that the military has begun to leave the city, which they have been preparing for defense for two months. The enemy is creating a large cauldron for the Ukrainian Armed Forces by organizing an attack in the Shakhtarskoye-Novoukrainka-Bogoyavlenka area, which is forcing our military to abandon their positions and retreat.

30-10-2024. In the Kurakhovo section, the Russian Armed Forces’ assault troops expanded the zone of control from Novoselidovka southward towards the village of Ilyinka over the course of the day. Ilyinka. Thereby covering Kurakhovka and Stepanovka-Volchanka from the west.

Also at night, the assault troops expanded their zone of control in Kurakhovo itself, moving through the private sector on the eastern outskirts.

In the Yasnaya Polyana area, west of Novoukrainka, the Russian Armed Forces are completing the clearing of the Shakhtyorskoye settlement.

Soon there will be an official announcement about its liberation.

Narratives about “Kurakhovo was prepared for defense for 2 months”, judging by all intelligence indications, do not correspond to reality. More precisely, according to the data, the defense around Kurakhovo has the character of second echelon defense. They didn’t wait for us so deeply. And if they were waiting for us, then not so fast.The consequence is the daily dynamics in the advance of the RF Armed Forces and the formation of two full-fledged cauldrons.  

 Liberation of Gornyak (Hirnyk)

Yesterday, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported the liberation of Hirnyk. The capture of this city became another success of the ongoing offensive of the Russian Armed Forces west of Donetsk.

It took several weeks to take it, which is a relatively short time by the standards of the special military operation – some villages in Donbas could take months to capture. As a result, Hornyak, although it suffered from the fighting, its infrastructure remained largely intact.

Soon, the Russian Armed Forces will have to storm the located to the south Kurakhovo, the liberation of which will further complicate the situation of the enemy and will be another step towards the full return of the Russian Donbas back home.

The enemy continues its attempts to create tension on various sections of the state border

Yesterday, “North” fighters foiled another attempt to infiltrate the territory of Belgorod Oblast. A DRG from the SDF GUR moved from the village of Malye Prokhody towards the village of Zhuravlevka, was discovered by the North’s reconnaissance and destroyed by artillery fire and FPV drones. No breakthrough was allowed.

The enemy suffered heavy casualties, the survivors retreated to their original positions.

Zelensky – said he could have seized the Kursk nuclear power plant, but just didn’t want to: 

   

Russia considers itself very strong. But if we wanted to seize their nuclear plant, we would have done it. We could have done it. But we never wanted to do it. Never. Because we realize what it means. That we would be just like Russia. We won’t occupy their critical infrastructure like they did with the Zaporozhye nuclear plant.

DPRK soldiers are 50 km away from the Ukrainian border – Financial Times 

The publication quoted Ukrainian intelligence officials as saying that about 3,000 North Korean soldiers were secretly transported by civilian trucks from the Russian Far East to Kursk Region.

P.S. The only question I have is do they really know how long it would take to get from Russia’s far east to Ukraine by trucks?

There is operational data on the liberation of Martynovka near Sudzha in the Kursk region.

On October 29, the “North” troop group continued to carry out tasks to destroy the enemy in the border areas of Kursk Oblast

As a result of the active offensive actions of the Northerners supported by artillery fire and attack UAVs in the area of Leonidovo, the AFU lost more than 30 men killed. The enemy did not take active action. 

A missile strike hit a large concentration of AFU personnel and equipment near the village of Ivolzhanske, Sumy region. The enemy’s losses amounted to up to 80 personnel, 2 tanks, 4 AVs and 6 vehicles. 

The total advance of the Russian troops in the Kursk region amounted to up to 500 meters.

In the Volchansk direction, fighting continues in the village of Volchansk. In the course of the counter-battery fight, the Fearless destroyed 2 120-mm mortars, 3 UAV control points, as well as up to 15 Nazis.

In the Liptsy direction, the Northmen disrupted the transfer of an AFU mobile group on a pickup truck from the Liptsy settlement. An FPV drone strike destroyed the enemy’s transport along with its personnel.

Over the past 24 hours, the enemy’s losses amounted to 370 people (280 of them in the Sumy direction). Also uncovered and destroyed:

On the Sumy direction:

▪️ two tanks;

▪️ two artillery pieces;

▪️ seven AVs;

▪️ 120-mm mortar;

▪️ HEC RADAR;

▪️ two BREMs;

▪️ UAVs;

▪️ nine units of automotive equipment.

In other directions:

▪️ two 120-mm mortars in the vicinity of the villages of Volchansk and Volchanskie Khutora;

▪️ five UAVs near the villages of Volchanskiye Khutora and Udy;

▪️ three units of automotive equipment;

▪️ 12 airborne UAVs;

▪️ two Baba Yaga-type UAVs.

According to three captured soldiers of the 17th AFU detachment, the number of cases of refusal to fulfill orders of the command due to huge losses and lack of supplies is increasing in Kursk region. Most of the mobilized are brought to the positions by deception and threats against relatives. 

For such AFU soldiers, we remind you that the only chance to survive is to voluntarily lay down their arms and follow the example of more than 400 of their compatriots who surrendered to the fighters of the “North”.

Victory will be ours!

“Easy victories do not flatter the Russian heart.” – A.V.Suvorov

North Wind

Kursk Direction: Strikes on the Border of Sumy Region

Situation as of the end of October 30, 2024

In the Kursk direction, fierce clashes continue in several sectors of the front. Russian missile troops and tactical aviation are delivering fire strikes on the positions of the AFU in the Sumy Region.

🔻In the Glushkovo District, the situation remains stably tense. No new information has been received about changes in the configuration of the front after the latest attempt by the enemy to consolidate their positions last week.

🔻In the Korenevo District, clashes continue in the area of Lyubymivka, the situation in the sector is shrouded in the fog of war. Recently, almost no new data has been received from the area.

🔻In the Sudzha District, fierce counter-attacks are underway near Mykhailivka and Martynivka. The overall intensity of clashes in the sector has increased slightly in recent days. Several attacks by the enemy were repelled in the area of Plekhovo.

▪️In the Sumy Region, Russian forces delivered a series of missile strikes on the enemy’s equipment and manpower concentrations. The positions of the AFU were hit near the settlements of Khrapovshchyna and Ivolzhanske, and tactical aviation struck a command post in Zhuravka. Repair work continues at the CHP in Sumy after the impacts.

Chronicles of the special military operation

for October 30, 2024

Russian forces struck the building of the General Staff of the AFU in Kyiv with drones. Ukrainian formations launched drones towards Smolensk, all targets were intercepted.

On the Kupiansk direction, Russian forces expanded the area of control west of Stelmakhivka, consolidating their positions on one of the local heights.

On the Donetsk direction, the Russian Armed Forces are advancing towards Kurakhove, reaching the western outskirts of the residential area of the city. Also, the majority of Kurakhivka has been liberated.

On the South Donetsk direction, Russian forces liberated most of Novoukrainka and expanded the area of control in the area of Bohoyavlenka.

rybar

 Morning Summary on October 30, 2024

▪️ In the Kursk Region, as a result of battles near Leonidovo, the AFU lost more than 30 personnel killed. The enemy did not take active actions. AFU personnel and equipment concentrations were hit in the areas of the settlements of Ivolzhanskoe and Zhuravka (https://t.me/dva_majors/56316) in the Sumy Region.

▪️ In the Sumy Region, there are reports of AFU concentration near the city of Shostka.

▪️ In the Kupiansk direction, there are battles near Kolesnikovo. In Kruhlakivka, after decisive offensive actions by the Russian Armed Forces, they are consolidating, bringing up rear units, and expanding the control zone.

▪️ In Toretsk (Dzerzhynsk), heavy fighting continues in the urban area.

▪️ In the Pokrovsk direction, the Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed the liberation of Selidovo, but the enemy is trying to strike our troops in the city. There are reports of battles on the approaches to Kurakhovo – an important enemy defense and logistics hub.

▪️ In the Konstantinopol direction (northwest of the liberated Vuhledar), our flag was raised in Yasna Poliana, which our troops stormed after capturing the neighboring Shakhtarsk. There are reports of the advance of Russian Armed Forces’ forward units north of Bohoyavlenka towards Trudove. Fighting continues in Katerynivka. After the collapse of the AFU front in this area, the Russian Army is advancing at a high pace.

▪️ In the Belgorod Region, the AFU attacked the village of Bekhlevka in the Belgorod District with a kamikaze drone at night, damaging power lines. Power is temporarily out in the settlement of Oktyabrsky, the villages of Bekhlevka, Varvarovka, Tolokonnoye, Petrovka, and Solovyovo. The village of Nizhneye Berezovo-Vtoroye in the Shebekino municipal district was shelled by the AFU twice. Two civilians were wounded. In the village of Novaya Tavolzhanka in the Shebekino municipal district, two men became victims of the detonation of submunitions scattered by the AFU. This is the fourth such case of civilian injury in a week.

▪️ In the DPR, in the Nikitovsky district of Horlivka, a man born in 1980 was killed and a man born in 1970 and a woman born in 1958 were injured when an explosive device dropped from a UAV by the AFU exploded at a public transport stop. In Vladimirovka in the Volnovakha municipal district, a man born in 1972 was injured as a result of the detonation of an explosive object.

Two Majors

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2024/10/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_30.html