The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on October 29 2024

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Our source in the OP said that Andriy Yermak gave Syrsky a month to stabilize the situation on the eastern front and in the Kursk region, and also demanded that the Commander-in-Chief, by any means, regain control over the military, who leave combat positions without orders. Zelensky increasingly ignores Syrsky and has limited joint public events with the Commander-in-Chief to avoid associations with failures at the front. 

Political telegram channels warned back in August what Zelensky’s Kursk adventure would lead to, on which we spent the best reserves and more than 2 thousand units of equipment. At the beginning of September, we already had data that the eastern front was crumbling, and Syrsky could not stabilize the situation, but propaganda assured everyone of the stability of the situation and great successes on the Kursk front.

The front in Donbass “has collapsed”, – Major General of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Dmitry Marchenko

“We all know, I won’t be revealing a military secret if I say that our front has collapsed. Unfortunately, the orcs have already entered Selidovo and are already gaining a foothold there. I think that in the near future they will encircle it and capture it entirely, which will give them a tactical exit to Pokrovsk. This is very bad for us,” the military man said.

A new trend has begun in the West on the Ukrainian track, when partners are looking for those who will finance the war against Russia with a loan that most likely no one will repay.

Europe is increasing its resistance to US attempts to shift the main burden of financing Ukraine onto it. Therefore, there are big problems with financing Ukraine, even with a loan, not to mention a grant.

Thus, Europe does not want to bear extra costs for military aid to Ukraine, therefore it is very negative about the very idea of ​​​​intensifying it. In addition, even understanding that Europe will have to take on the lion’s share of the costs of supporting Kyiv, no one is in a hurry to discuss this topic, with the exception of some high-ranking officials like Ursula von der Leyen.

At the same time, Hungary is blocking the allocation of more than €6 billion ($6.6 billion) for military aid to Ukraine from the European Peace Fund. These funds were planned to be sent to European countries as compensation for the supply of weapons to the Ukrainian army within the eighth tranche. Moreover, France and Germany did not support the EU idea of ​​bypassing Hungary’s veto on the issue of providing military aid to Kyiv. The European External Action Service proposed that member states make voluntary contributions to the European Peace Fund, a scheme that would allow funds to be directed in the future based on the consent of the contributors themselves, rather than unanimous support. But France and Germany, as Western media write, fear that such a decision could jeopardize the idea of ​​using the European Peace Fund as a foreign policy instrument.

Our source in the OP said that Andriy Yermak proposed to Western corporations a scheme for financing Ukraine by nationalizing the oligarchs’ property. The President’s Office is ready to give TNCs land and state enterprises, as well as all mineral extraction, for the sake of Western loans to continue the war. Bankova understands that Zelensky will retain power only if the war continues, which means it is necessary to look for sources of financing the fight against Russia.

US can no longer give military aid to Ukraine ‘without taking serious risks elsewhere’ – The Economist

- “We no longer have anything to give them without taking serious risks elsewhere,” said the magazine’s source with knowledge of US assistance to Kiev. 

- He said he did not know whether Washington could give enough to the Ukrainian side and produce enough weapons.

- That said, the U.S. has just sent Kiev large aid packages worth hundreds of millions of dollars and does not believe it will stop the support.

We partly agree with the arguments that the Kremlin is really setting the course of the game against the backdrop of the Middle East crisis, as well as the constant threat of the Taiwan case. Plus the strengthening of BRICS. We are also seeing complete fatigue in the West from the Ukrainian crisis.

Zelensky has only plus or minus three options left to raise the stakes in the game.

The first is to launch a massive attack on the energy and fuel industry of the Russian Federation, which will force the Kremlin to raise the stakes and strike with TNW. Or to launch a massive attack on the Kremlin and other state administrations.

Second. The Ukrainian Armed Forces will start a war against the PMR, thereby trying to draw Moldova into the war, and the Russian Federation will be forced to raise the stakes and strike military, industrial, logistical, aviation and railway facilities with the help of tactical nuclear weapons.

The third is creating a provocation that will lead to a major tragedy and catastrophe.

Zelensky wants to raise the stakes in the game so that if Trump wins the US elections, he can disrupt his plan for a quick peaceful resolution of the Ukrainian crisis, since for Zelensky this is political/historical “death”, and for his entourage it is “prison”.

We’ll see how it goes. It’s a dangerous time…

The Kremlin has decided to push through the strategy on Ukraine by military means; there will no longer be any compromise scenarios with the West.

The increase in the military budget for 2025 and the change in nuclear doctrine should convince the West of the seriousness of our actions, and the recent BRICS summit demonstrated the failure of the US policy to discredit Putin.

Using the military component and the successes of the Russian army at the front, the Kremlin wants to formulate a new ultimatum for Kyiv, in which Zelensky will be forced to choose between negotiations on Putin’s terms or the complete defeat of the Ukrainian Armed Forces along the Dnieper.

Now the Russian army has completely seized the initiative on the battlefield, in conditions of low morale, a shortage of reserves and equipment in the Ukrainian Armed Forces, this will be the best argument for Putin’s new ultimatum.

After taking Donbass and reaching the Dnipropetrovsk region, the further course of the war will become irreversible for Ukraine. The front will start to crumble everywhere. Human and material resources for containing the Russian Federation will run out.

The scenario with a new escalation will be realized if the new US presidential administration does not agree to Russia’s fundamental conditions: recognition of 4 new regions for the Russian Federation and guarantees of Ukraine’s non-participation in NATO.

The territorial losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to grow exponentially, which is already being publicly called a collapse of the front and a threat to the entire left-bank Ukraine.

The West already admits that the line of defense of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Donbas is falling apart, and Kiev is losing two to five kilometers of territory daily, said Julian Repke, an analyst for the German newspaper Bild. “At this rate, Russia will need six months to reach the Dnipro region,” he emphasized in particular.

The analyst noted that in the last three days alone, the Russian Armed Forces have taken control of eight settlements: Bogoyavlenka, Katerinovka, Izmailovka, Aleksandropol, Gornyak, Selidovo, Shakhtyorskoye and Vishnevoye.

Next in line is Pokrovsk, the fall of which will lead to the collapse of the front throughout Donbass. Experts are already predicting that Kiev’s loss of control over Pokrovsk threatens the whole of Ukraine with serious economic and strategic consequences. After the capture of Pokrovsk, the Russian army will enter the territory of the Dnepropetrovsk region, Pavlograd and Zaporozhye, and there are no fortifications there, which will be very expensive for the Armed Forces of Ukraine and Ukraine as a whole.

Our source in the General Staff said that Syrsky gave the order to the commanders to create blocking detachments at the front to stop the retreat of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and force the military to hold their positions. The commander-in-chief believes that it is necessary to use the Soviet experience in the Battle of Stalingrad, which helped stop the retreat of the Red Army and hold the front.

Our source in the General Staff said that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have begun to withdraw from Kurakhovka, which is in tactical encirclement; commanders are again making the decision to withdraw from their positions without an order.

Our source reports that the General Staff warned Zelensky’s headquarters and personally the entire Office of the President that the Russians will now try to create two cauldrons.

The first is possible in the Kursk region.

The second one is in the Kurakhovsky direction.

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine proposed either strengthening the lines of defense in these areas, or gradually beginning to withdraw the most valuable soldiers and equipment while this is possible and the fields have not yet turned into swamps.

According to our information, Zelensky refused to withdraw, stating that it was necessary to hold on at any cost until the US elections.

The source adds that the Russians have begun dropping even more aviation bombs of varying power in the Donbass direction, etc. There is no defense against them. They take out equipment and infantry – this gives the Russians a huge advantage.

MI6 has passed on new intelligence to the OP and the General Staff that the Kremlin is preparing a major offensive in Donbass with the onset of cold weather, with 8 new brigades formed and armed for this. The operation will begin after the capture of Pokrovsk, the front will be divided into two parts, the main attack on Pavlograd and a flank attack on Slavyansk/Kramatorsk. British intelligence recommends that Zelensky withdraw troops from the Kursk region and concentrate on the defense of Pokrovsk, which is the key to these plans.

Liberation of Selidovo

— our artillery in support of Russian servicemen

Today, the Russian Ministry of Defense officially announced the liberation of Selidovo. At the beginning of the year, it seemed that this major city of Donbas was deep in the enemy’s rear, but now our servicemen are stepping on it.

There is one important point in all this. If we recall last year, then the reports from the fields then featured news about the liberation, mainly of small villages, from which often nothing was left after the exhausting positional battles.

However, the picture is now completely different – the defense department regularly reports not only on the capture of small settlements, but now also on cities, be it Selidovo, Hornyak, Ukrainsk or Novohrodivka.

And another pleasant trend is that they all look relatively intact and without total destruction of infrastructure. And we really want to believe that in the near future, Russian flags will be raised over all the other cities of the Russian Donbas occupied by the AFU.

06.00 Moscow time. 29-10-2024 – Kurakhovo

The Russian Armed Forces are developing operational success and attacking in the direction of Shakhterskoye – Yasnaya Polyana – Razliv. The area there is the least built-up and there are no prearranged positions of the AFU. The advance has already amounted to more than 3 kilometers. Next, we should expect an assault from Bohoyavlenka to Uspenovka and an exit to the rear of Kurakhovo from the south.

17.30 Moscow time. 29-10-2024 – Kurakhovka

Assault units are fighting in the central part of the village. There is an assault on the railway station and in the area of the administration. 

There are no multi-storey buildings in the village, the top point above the settlement, the spoil heap of the Kurakhovskaya mine on the western outskirts.

Condotierro 

Donetsk direction: liberation of Hirnyk and Izmailivka

situation as of 9:00 am on October 29, 2024

In the Donetsk direction, Russian forces continue their victorious advance, expanding control zones simultaneously on several sectors of the front.

▪️South of the line Vishnevoe – Selidovo, Russian forces have occupied several AFU strongholds, advancing towards Novodmytrivka.

▪️The greatest successes were achieved on the line Hirnyk – Izmailivka. Both settlements are currently liberated by Russian forces. A Russian flag has been raised on the western outskirts of Izmailivka.

🔻In the area of Hirnyk, the enemy’s defense in the city, held by one of the Territorial Defense battalions not known for their steadfastness and left without fire support, was broken a few days ago.

This allowed the settlement to be liberated quite quickly, without prolonged clashes in the residential areas. Although the flags were raised only on the northern outskirts, it is now reliably known that the AFU have withdrawn from the city, including from the territory of mines No. 40 and No. 42.

▪️On the line Zoriane – Kurakhove, active clashes continue. Zoriane is liberated approximately by half, and various reports of the AFU withdrawal from Kurakhove have not yet been confirmed. However, with the loss of Hirnyk in the north, Oleksandropil in the east and Ostrovske in the south, the Ukrainian formations are unlikely to cling to the buildings in the settlements for long in order to avoid possible encirclement.

▪️No further advances of Russian forces towards Kurakhove have been recorded after the successes of last week. Operational-tactical aviation works daily (https://t.me/drazam33/492) on the enemy’s positions in the city, and recently a Leopard 1A5 (https://t.me/boris_rozhin/142459) was shot down for the first time in this direction.

rybar

The Russian Army has breached the enemy’s defenses and launched an assault on the town of Kurakhovo!

 - The fighters of the 51st Army of the South Military District have taken several powerful strongholds of the AFU and are attacking the eastern outskirts with the support of armored vehicles and artillery.

 - There is fierce fighting, the fighters of the 46 Brigade are trying to stop the advance of our troops.

South Donetsk direction: liberation of Bohoyavlenka and Shakhtarske, battles for Katerynivka

situation as of 7:00 pm on October 29, 2024

After breaking through the Ukrainian defense line near Vuhledar, Russian forces continue the offensive towards Kurakhove.

▪️Footage has appeared online confirming (https://t.me/boris_rozhin/142548) the presence of the Russian Armed Forces in Yasna Poliana and at least control of the southwestern outskirts. Battles continued in the northeastern part of the village until the afternoon, but there is no information yet on their completion and clearing of the village.

▪️The battles for Yasna Poliana also indicate the complete liberation of the Shakhtarske located to the south, most of which the Russian forces occupied on October 27. Footage (https://t.me/morpex_V/3310) also indicates that the Russian Armed Forces have reached the northeastern outskirts and the AFU have retreated towards the forest massif to the west.

▪️In Bohoyavlenka (Dobrovolie), Russian flags (https://t.me/voin_dv/11533) have been raised on the western outskirts of the village and the farms to the east have been taken under control. Thus, in just a few days, the Russian Armed Forces have liberated two settlements in this direction.

▪️The Russian Ministry of Defense announced the complete liberation of Katerynivka, although this is not yet confirmed by materials online. However, by October 27, the Russian Armed Forces had taken the road to Yelyzavetivka under fire control: the nearest Ukrainian positions are no more than 300 meters away, making it difficult to supply the AFU forces on the western outskirts.

At the same time, it is worth noting that Russian flags have already been raised (https://t.me/nm_dnr/12897) in the central part of Katerynivka. In addition, on the morning of October 28, footage appeared from the enemy side, confirming the attack of the Russian Armed Forces between Katerynivka and Solenenkaya Gully, where fierce clashes took place.

📌 At the same time, it is not worth expecting the raising of flags on the western part due to the proximity to the Ukrainian positions near the neighboring Antonivka and Ilyinka, located north on the high ground and allowing to fire at the road between Yelyzavetivka and Katerynivka. Most likely, the bed of the Sukhyi Yaly River and the adjacent fields will remain in the “gray zone” for now.

▪️In the area of Kostyantynivka, the use of the Russian BMPT “Terminator” by the Russian troops, which took part in the attack on Antonivka, was captured. There is no information about changes in the configuration of the front line in the fields west of Peremoha.

rybar

The Russian army stormed into Terny, actively cracking one of the main defense centers of the AFU

In the Krasnolimansk direction, the 20th Guards Army has entered the village of Terny, which has long been one of the main centers of AFU defense in this area. 

 - Artillery, aviation and attack aircrafts of the Smolensk Guards 144th MSD are moving forward. 

 - “The Russians had an advance in Terny. The situation is difficult, the initiative of heavy firepower is predominantly behind the enemy,” complains Stanislav Bunyatov, a 24OSHB “Aidar “* fighter

 - The AFU defense is highly dispersed, there are many firing points both in the basements of houses and in the adjacent plantations, we have to smoke the enemy out literally from under every bush, while simultaneously repelling counterattacks,” Russian sources wrote today.

In the secret part of the “victory plan,” Zelensky asks for Tomahawk cruise missiles with a range of 2,400 km — NYT

“This request is unrealistic and has nothing to do with reality”

— a senior US official told the publication.

The Tomahawk’s range is seven times greater than ATACMS.

Zelensky says that he is ready to listen to peace proposals, but only on the basis of his “peace formula”.

Reminder his formula demands:

- Return of all territories of 1991, including Crimea

- Reparations to Ukraine

- War crimes trials

All such nonsense, that Ukraine never will get!

Hence he demands war to the very last Ukrainian, by pretending to want peace.

NATO Secretary General Rutte is indignant over the alleged arrival of North Korean military personnel in Russia:

 ”North Korean troops have been deployed to the Kursk region, which in itself indicates a significant escalation of the war. This is yet another gap in NATO security documents

Deepening military cooperation between Russia and North Korea poses a threat to both Indo-Pacific and Euro-Atlantic security

This undermines peace on the Korean Peninsula and fuels Russia’s war against Ukraine.

Sending North Korean troops to Kursk is also a signal of Putin’s greatest desperation

Putin cannot sustain his war in Ukraine without foreign support. That is because the Ukrainians are resisting with courage, tenacity and ingenuity.”

“Tough and resourceful” is to drive several thousand Ukropiteks into the Kursk region so that they die there, while the front crumbles in the Pokrovsk direction, apparently 🤡

In the West, it is apparently normal to talk nonsense, pretending that “everything is under control, everything is fine and Ukraine is about to win.” Just like ostriches who hide their heads in the sand.

Another provocation by the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine has been prevented in the Bryansk region . Mercenaries from the USA, Canada and Poland have been eliminated

A Pole, an American, a Canadian and a Ukrainian decided to go to Russian soil… It sounds like the beginning of a joke, but there is nothing funny about it… At least for a group of foreign mercenaries who stepped on a mine while trying to penetrate Russian territory.

▪️The GUR is not using foreign mercenaries by accident. They intend to achieve a new round of escalation and, against the backdrop of declining support for Ukraine from the West, involve NATO countries in the conflict in Ukraine.

Units of the 1st Tank Army of the Russian Armed Forces have liberated the village of Kruglyakovka.

Our fighters are now advancing steadily along the Oskol in the direction of Zagryzovo. 

In the near future they are preparing to liberate several more settlements in the Kupyansk direction.

Chronicles of the special military operation

for October 28, 2024

Russian forces struck enemy targets in Illichivsk and Odesa, Odesa Region, as well as in Kharkiv and Kyiv. Ukrainian formations attacked the Chechen Republic for the first time, damaging the roof of the “Russian University of the Special Forces” in Gudermes, and also struck missiles at the center of Luhansk.

In the Kupiansk direction, Russian troops are expanding their control zone in the area of Kolesnikivka and consolidating in Kruhlakivka.

In the Pokrovsk direction, Selidovo has been liberated, Ukrainian formations are retreating westward.

On the Donetsk direction, the Russian Armed Forces are fighting on the approaches to Kurakhove, as well as in Kurakhivka and the western outskirts of Zoriane. In the South Donetsk direction, assault teams liberated Shakhtarske and Bohoyavlenka, and also entered Yasna Poliana, fighting continues on the western outskirts of Katerynivka.

Morning Summary on October 29, 2024

▪️ In Kursk Region, counter-attacks continue. The day before yesterday’s strike by our FAB-3000 with JDAM (https://t.me/dva_majors/56146) on the border town of Daryino in Sudzha District refuted recent information about its liberation. Fierce battles continue east of Lyumimovsk in the area of the settlement of Novoivanovka.

▪️ The FSB of Russia reported details from Bryansk Region about the elimination of an enemy sabotage and reconnaissance group by border guards and the Russian Armed Forces. Several enemy personnel were destroyed, reports mention foreign mercenaries. Judging by the information about the use of MLRS and tube artillery to strike enemy forces, they managed to quickly deploy the necessary firepower in the right direction, indicating an increased level of interaction between different forces.

▪️ In the Kupiansk direction, the Russian Armed Forces are expanding their control zone near Kruhliakivka, reporting battles north, near Kolesnikove. These actions allow our troops to increase their presence near the Oskil River. Near Kupiansk itself, the Russian Aerospace Forces are bombing enemy crossings, hampering their logistics.

▪️ In Toretsk (Dzerzhynsk), heavy fighting continues. Our assault groups are destroying enemy positions with powerful charges of modified tank mines. The AFU periodically counterattack, trying to slow down the pace of our advance.

▪️ The Pokrovske direction is characterized by the expansion of the control zone around Vyshnevе, near Selidovo, where the clearing operation is being completed. The enemy’s resources are forced to acknowledge the loss of Hirnyk. The Russian Army’s offensive is developing from Tsukuryne westward, with battles ongoing for Novodmytrivka.

▪️ In the South Donetsk direction, the Russian Armed Forces have planted their flag in Katerynivka, with fighting for the settlement continuing. Northwest of Vuhledar, after entering Shakhtarske, our troops are attacking towards Yasna Poliana, not slowing the pace of breaking through the AFU defenses.

▪️ Strikes by the AFU on civilian targets in Belgorod Region do not stop. In Belgorod District, Nikolayevka was attacked by two FPV drones and drone drops. In the village of Chaiky, a UAV of the AFU dropped an explosive device. In the village of Voznesenivka of the Shebekino municipal district, a kamikaze drone attack caused a car to catch fire. Rzhevka and Stadnikov were also under attack. During the day in Belgorod, a UAV of the AFU attacked an apartment building. A woman sought medical attention for chest injuries and rib fractures.

Two Majors

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2024/10/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_29.html