The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on October 12 2024
U.S. phases out project Ukraine
Complete Failure of The Ukrainian Kursk Offensive | Additional 50SQKM Re-Captured
Ukrainian Army Crushed In Kursk
Ukrainian Kursk Offensive Ends Up In A Disaster l Ostrivske Falls
Russian Soldier Single-Handedly Destroyed 30 Ukrainian Soldiers and Captured Enemy’s Stronghold
THATS AN ENCIRCLEMENT~!!! Updates from Niu-York, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove | Ukraine War SITREP / Summary
Our source in the OP said that Zelensky’s tour of the EU did not bring results to Ukraine, none of the political leaders want to support the victory plan. The West is skeptical about the new initiative of the President’s Office and considers this move a political provocation.
Thus, the loss of Pokrovsk alone threatens Ukraine with a shortage of coking coal. In this regard, steel production will fall by half, to 2-3 million tons per year – that is, Ukraine will reduce steel production by half due to a coal shortage. Yes, the territory controlled by Ukraine still has resources to achieve a steel production level of 12 million tons per year, but in the event of the loss of Pokrovsk, these figures may decrease to 2-3 million tons per year. And the whole point is that in Pokrovsk there remains the only mine controlled by Ukraine that produces coking coal, that is, the loss of the settlement threatens a shortage of such coal.
It should be understood that the total damage to the Ukrainian economy since the beginning of the military conflict has reached $1.164 trillion. A study by the Kyiv School of Economics shows that the greatest losses were suffered by the manufacturing sectors: trade – $450.5 billion, industry together with construction and services – $410 billion, agriculture – $83.1 billion. Significant damage was also inflicted on key infrastructure sectors: energy lost $43.1 billion, and transport – $38.8 billion.
Our sources confirm the information of Russian telegram channels that Ukraine tried to resume the negotiating track with the Kremlin through intermediaries, but was refused. This is precisely what is connected with the flow of information in the Western media about possible concessions from Ukraine to end the war.
In fact, Zelensky is not considering the format of ending the war along the front line; it is important for him to demonstrate readiness and delay the process in order to stop the Russian offensive in Donbas. A similar technique was used in March 2022, when the Presidential Office created the appearance of a negotiation process, while strengthening its defense.
Taynaya_kantselyariya
▪️Michael Johnson believes that Trump, if re-elected, will call Putin, say that “enough is enough” and, thus, end the war.
▪️ To which Medvedev responded sarcastically: “What if Putin says: ‘Not now. Ukraine must capitulate and not join NATO.’”
Poland and the Baltic states are discussing a strike on St. Petersburg – Bild
- Poland’s Chief of General Staff Raimund Andrzejczak said one of the targets for a strike would be St. Petersburg if Russia attacks the Baltic states and Eastern Europe.
– “Not on the first day, but in the first minute. We will hit all strategic facilities within a radius of 300 kilometers. We will attack St. Petersburg directly,” Andrzejczak said.
- Lithuanian presidential national security adviser Kęstutis Budrys said Russia could direct its “imperialist expansionism” toward Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland after the war in Ukraine ends.
- The head of Poland’s General Staff believes that Russia can be deterred from aggression by “taking the initiative” and showing that an attack on Poland and the Baltic states would mean the beginning of an all-out confrontation. For this purpose, Poland is buying 800 missiles with a range of up to 900 kilometers.
Delineation along the current state of the front line is impossible, as the enemy continues to occupy Kherson, Zaporozhye, a substantial part of the DPR, and our Constitution prohibits any trade of Russian land.
The second most important factor is the absence of someone who could sign a peace treaty with us (someone who would sign a surrender can be found). Even if the enemy withdraws its troops from the above territories, agrees to reduce the peacetime army and signs the neutral status of Ukraine, this paper will not be worth a dime.
In six months, Khokhol will build up his army, he will be urgently admitted to NATO, and all our claims will be met with the claim that you signed an agreement with an illegal president of Ukraine who usurped power. By this time Zelensky will be removed neatly or not so neatly, “elections” will be held and the new government will declare that all agreements with the illegal president are null and void and Ukraine is not going to honor them.
Therefore, the Western press can continue to cast their fishing lines about peace talks, they are nothing more than farting into eternity.
Colleagues, the Kursk adventure has become Zelensky’s personal project, which is why Syrsky must transfer more and more reserves from other parts of the front. In fact, we have received a second Bakhmut, only the Kursk meat grinder is different in that there are no defensive structures at all, and the enemy calmly uses all its aviation. For Ukraine, the consequences of this “general” operation will become fatal in the future, and this year we will see the price of the politicians’ adventure.
The Kursk adventure is devouring all reserves, which is causing a shortage of manpower in the most critical area of the Donbass.
Many people started talking about the fact that this could lead to another failure on the front line.
- The offensive operation of the Ukrainian troops, which began a month ago in the Glushkovsky section of the Kursk region with the aim of hitting the rear of our units, ended in failure.
- At first, our paratroopers, special forces and marines repelled dozens of attacks towards Vesyoloye and Glushkovo station, destroying about 100 units of enemy equipment and many militants.
- After that, the reinforcements of the 56, 137 and 119 Airborne Regiments launched counterattacks and knocked the AFU out of the Vesyoloye-Obukhovka area to the Novy Puti border area.
- From Glushkovo station, Ivanovo paratroopers and other units attacked and drove out the AFU from the Medvezhye area.
- Now the occupiers are trying to hold on to the border near Novy Put, near the villages of Obod and Medvezhye, from where they are being actively knocked out by our troops.
RVvoenkor
The Kursk direction is actively moving forward, and we are destroying a great deal of the enemy on a daily basis. For the past period, for these almost two months, a total of 19 settlements have been liberated from the enemy. Our guys – I emphasize every time – the marines of the 155th Brigade especially distinguished themselves, and other units also joined in and carried out active assault operations, as a result of which over the last two days they have moved forward very effectively, cleared two settlements, and continue to clear two more.
- At Glushkovsky district Russian Army recaptured the locality of Obukhovka & expelled Ukrainian Army from most of the district with the exception of Novyi Put & Otdel Komsomol’skoye farms.
- At Korenevsky district Russian Army took control over significant area along the road 38К-030 taking control over the locality of Zelenyi Shlyakh & parts of Liubimovka & Novoivanovka. In addition, Russian forces advanced from Obukhovka & recaptured the farms of Pokrovskii & Nizhnii Klin.
- At Sudzhansky district Russian Army advanced west of Fanaseevka along the river Psel in order to encircle Plekhovo from the north.
There are good results in the area:
1. Olgovka
2. Lyubimovka.
3. Novoivanovka
4. Malaya Lokna.
5. In the eastern part of Sujan district.
The published maps are really lagging behind the current events, but this is a good thing – we should not rush to overmotivated statements, people are working and will soon show good results.
Regarding the Olgovka area, there is indeed an unknown number of AFU soldiers wandering in the forests there, who have retreated from their positions, some of them are being caught or they are staying there forever.
At the same time, it would be a mistake to say that the enemy is fleeing everywhere and giving up positions. On the contrary, wherever they can, they are holding on and trying to bring in reinforcements, which is actively hindered by our drones, inflicting significant losses in men and equipment on a daily basis. At the same time, in a number of areas the AFU do not hesitate to undertake counterattacks to try to restrain our active actions. So we should not underestimate the enemy and pour champagne in advance.
The trends for us now in Kursk region are favorable, we are acting primarily with skill, but there is still a lot of work ahead.
boris_rozhin
▪️ “Regarding the Kursk operation, there were attempts by Russia to push back our positions, but we are holding certain lines,” the junkie inarticulately stated.
▪️ At the same time, in Kursk region Russian troops were able to powerfully break through the left flank of the Ukrainian bridgehead and put parts of the AFU at risk of encirclement, which is recognized by leading Ukrainian military analytical resources as well.
Situation as of the end of October 12, 2024
In the Kursk Direction, Russian forces are pushing through the enemy’s defenses in the area of Lyubimovka and Plekhovo. At the same time, active work continues to destroy the enemy’s industrial facilities in the rear.
🔻In Glushkovo District, the Russian Armed Forces are fighting on the northern outskirts of Novy Put. Ukrainian formations are holding positions south of the railway track and are accumulating forces for a counterattack in the area.
The artillery and air force of the Russian Armed Forces regularly strike the rear communications of the AFU, reducing their combat potential and hampering the supply of forward units. Over the past day, the positions of Ukrainian formations in Pavlovka, Katerynivka and Iskryskovshchyna were hit.
🔻In Korenevo District, the battle for Lyubimovka continues, where enemy units have been partially encircled. Likely, the Ukrainian formations will soon be forced to either leave the village or carry out counterattacks to improve their position.
❗️Earlier, there was information about the advance of Russian troops towards Sverdlikovo. As of today, it has not been possible to confirm this either by objective control footage or data from our sources on the ground. It is difficult to determine the current configuration of the front in this area due to the high rate of change in the combat situation.
🔻In the north of Sudzha District, the Russian Armed Forces delivered a series of artillery strikes on enemy positions in Russkoye Porechnoye. To the south, assault groups of Russian troops are advancing along the railway towards Kolmakovo and Agronom from the direction of Russkaya Konopelka.
▪️On the southern outskirts of Makhnovka, Russian UAV operators destroyed an enemy tank using a drone with a fiber-optic cable. This type of drone is gradually gaining more popularity in the troops against the background of its successful debut in the Kursk region.
▪️In the area of Plekhovo, the situation is shrouded in the “fog of war”. Judging by the reports from the Russian Ministry of Defense about strikes on the territory of the village, Ukrainian formations are still present in the settlement.
At the same time, Russian troops are expanding the zones of penetration into the AFU defense, seeking to reach the Psel River and completely cut off the enemy from supply.
🔻In Sumy Region, Russian troops used Geran-2 UAVs to strike a series of industrial enterprises in the regional center.
The facilities were used for the repair and maintenance of heavy equipment, including Western models, in the interests of the enemy grouping in the Kursk Region.
Military experts note that Ugledar had a key position for controlling the southern flank of the Ukrainian defense forces in Donbass – it was an extremely advantageous position, a commanding height, densely built up, which provided the best radio horizons for drones and firing positions for all types of weapons. And the loss of Ugledar is a serious defeat for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which will have serious strategic consequences. An important fortified area with a large number of equipped positions and minefields has been lost. After this, the Russian Armed Forces will roll up the front and attack Velyka Novosilka from the east and Kurakhovo from the south, and such convenient defense lines are no longer there.
Moreover, the loss of control over Ugledar deprived Ukraine of the opportunity to keep the land corridor to Crimea under any serious threat. Now the Crimean Bridge has lost its strategic importance for Ukraine.
As a result, we should now expect serious troubles in the Kherson region – the limited capacity of Crimea to supply the military group has ceased to play a decisive role in this theater of military operations.
Situation as of 6:00 PM on October 12, 2024
In the Aleksandr-Kalinovo direction, Russian forces are engaged in fierce urban combat in Dzerzhynsk. At the same time, in the area of Leonidivka and Dachne, the Russian Armed Forces are consolidating on the lines they have reached.
▪️After liberating most of Druzhba and Kirovo, Russian units are attacking along the Dachne – Dyleevka line. Ukrainian formations are still holding positions in the forest areas and forest belts on the approaches to the settlements and are setting up new ones along the railway track.
▪️In Dzerzhynsk, Russian assault groups are gradually advancing along the streets in the northern part of the city. In the area of the Lenin Central City Hospital, Russian forces have pushed the enemy out of buildings on Pushkarenko, Dogaev and Kemerovskaya streets, reaching Shchors Street.
Over the past few days, they have also managed to establish control over the Traffic Police Department on the approaches to the Dzerzhinsky Mine. To the north, the Russian Armed Forces have expanded the control zone along Mayakovsky Street and engaged in battles in the area of Kindergarten No. 8.
❗️Despite statements from certain sources, it is still too early to speak of the liberation of the facility’s territory. The specifics of urban combat complicate the establishment of the exact configuration of the front line due to the “overlapping” of the positions of the Russian Armed Forces and the AFU.
Quite often, the situation is such that on different floors of the same building, assault groups of both sides may be present, sometimes not even knowing about the close proximity of the enemy. In such a situation, each stairwell can be a strongpoint, the detection of which is difficult in the dynamically changing environment.
▪️In the southern part of the city, the Russian Armed Forces have advanced along one side of Sverdlov Avenue and reached Blahodatna Street. Thus, both “pincers” of the semi-encirclement have reached the approaches to the Dzerzhinsky Mine, the establishment of control over which will allow to encircle the AFU units in the urban area to the southeast.
In turn, the enemy is using various types of drones, trying to prevent the concentration of Russian personnel in this area for the assault on the mine’s territory.
To the east of Sverdlov Avenue, there is currently a vast “gray zone”. Russian assault troops are engaged in fierce battles here, and the actual control zones of the parties may differ significantly from the latest data received due to the dynamic changes in the situation.
▪️The situation on the Leonidivka – Shcherbynivka line is currently shrouded in the “fog of war”. After reports of an offensive by the Russian Armed Forces in this area in late September, an informational “lull” has set in here. The lack of objective control footage does not allow clarifying the configuration of the front line at this line.
Foreign Policy writes that Ukraine will face a double threat if Russia takes Pokrovsk.
The latest Russian offensive in the Donetsk region threatens the final fall of Pokrovsk, which carries both military and economic risks for Ukraine.
Pokrovsk, once a bustling town of 80,000, is the target of a Russian encirclement that began in July and is closing in on it by miles every day. The city serves as a key logistics and transportation hub for Ukrainian military operations in the east of the country , and is the gateway to conquering the rest of the Donetsk region. And perhaps even bigger prizes, such as Dnipro, Ukraine’s fourth-largest city before the conflict.
But the fall of Pokrovsk could have an even more insidious impact on Ukraine’s ability to continue the fight. The city is the source of much of the coal used in the country’s steel and metallurgy industry, once the backbone of the Ukrainian economy and still the second-largest sector, although production has fallen to less than a third of prewar levels.
Metallurgical coke is essential to making pig iron, which fuels most of Ukraine’s old steel furnaces and much of its industrial exports. A healthy steel industry also pays a large share of taxes, helping to finance an economy that is currently living on the edge.
“Without steel mills, the Ukrainian economy will die. It is a very, very important part of the economy,” says Stanislav Zinchenko, CEO of Ukrainian industrial consultancy GMK Center.
Russian troops are trying to step up their attacks now, before the autumn mud and lack of foliage on the trees make it difficult for mechanized and infantry units to advance. Experts say the fight for Pokrovsk could drag on for months, and the siege could resemble the months-long battle for Bakhmut.
Although Pokrovsk has already lost some of its value as a Ukrainian transit hub, with roads to the north and east virtually non-functional, it still serves as a deterrent to further Russian gains in Donetsk.
The loss of the city “will have operational significance, but much depends on the price that the Ukrainian military exacts” from Russian forces in the coming battle, says Michael Kofman, a senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
If Pokrovsk falls and Russian forces maintain momentum, he says, it could serve as a springboard for further Russian advances. In that case, the city would be occupied by Russian forces, complicating the creation of a new line of defense to protect Ukraine’s remaining industrial base further west.
“After the loss of Pokrovsk, there are fewer and fewer suitable areas left between Pavlograd and the city to create a line of defense,” says Kofman.
If Russian troops reach the western part of Pokrovsk, there will be another problem, in addition to an open road to the Dnieper – a risk to Ukraine’s main source of metallurgical coal. It is mined nearby even in wartime.
For Ukraine’s old-style blast furnaces, coking coal is a key part of producing the iron from which steel is made. Without cheap local supplies of coking coal, Ukraine will have no choice but to turn to ever greater volumes of expensive imports.
For a sector that accounts for nearly 6% of Ukraine’s GDP and more than twice that share of exports, the economic threat from Russia’s advance is real.
Russian troops managed to advance a little in the western part of Izmailovka and occupy part of the village. The Russian army is trying to push through the Ukrainian defense here so that the Novoselidovka-Izmailovka defense line collapses. If this happens, the cities of Gornyak and Kurakhovka will be operationally encircled, and then the situation there could turn into a “cauldron” for the Ukrainian group.
We believe that the loss of Pokrovsk will not kill what is already dead. It will simply increase the budget deficit and the need for Western loans. This will happen against the backdrop of a large-scale decline in the domestic economy, the bankruptcy of small and medium businesses.
We wrote in 2023 that each year of the Ukrainian crisis would become more expensive.
Also, since the end of 2022, there have been insider reports that the rising cost of the Ukrainian crisis will ultimately lead to the West stopping giving money at one point and the Ukrainian economy collapsing to the bottom.
Everything is now developing in exactly this negative scenario.
According to one scenario, Russian troops may postpone the capture of Kramatorsk/ Slavyansk and launch a major offensive operation through Pokrovsk to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
From Pokrovsk to the borders of the DPR and Dnepropetrovsk region is only 25 kilometers, and to Pavlograd, one of the largest industrial centers of Ukraine, is exactly 100 kilometers, if you go directly along the E50 highway.
Such a strike is allegedly favored not only by the open terrain and the operational space opening up for the Russian Armed Forces, but also by the virtual absence of the AFU’s long defensive lines west of Pokrovsk.
The Ukrainian army has allegedly been trying to urgently erect them since early September, but corruption and confusion prevent them from doing so effectively.
Military Chronicle
After the liberation of Ostrovskoye, we are developing the offensive and demining the areas.
The liberation of the village itself was carried out by a detachment of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division; the fighters used armored vehicles to roll up to the center of the village, where the infantry rushed down to storm the remaining part of the settlement.
The advance amounted to 1.2 km to the northern part of Kurakhovo.
Active work on the site of our drone pilots, which identify the movement of enemy forces to strengthen the defense of the city, so at the tarny Terny west of Kurakhovo was detected enemy stronghold, from which left the enemy’s equipment, with barrage munition target was hit and killed by the second drone.
In the central part of Kurakhovo, the drone pilots destroyed enemy communications equipment.
DnevnikDesantnika
It is reported from the field that the fighters of the 6th Army of the Lenvo literally broke through the enemy’s defense on the eastern bank of the Oskol and broke through to the northern outskirts of Petropavlovka.
Fighting for Sinkovka (4.5 kilometers to the north) had been going on for more than a year, but not so long ago our troops knocked the enemy out of this settlement, and recently they made a rush of almost 5 kilometers and broke into Petropavlovka, where fierce fighting is going on now.
At the same time, Russian aviation is striking at crossings across the Oskol River, preventing the AFU fighters from moving reinforcements.
Morning Summary on October 12, 2024
▪️ Overnight, due to a UAV attack by the AFU in two districts of the Krasnodar Region, homes and property of residents were damaged. Fortunately, there were no casualties among the people. In Slavyansk-on-Kuban, the roofs of two private homes were damaged by falling UAV debris. In Primorsko-Akhtarsk, the windows of one house were blown out, and a passenger car was damaged and caught fire. The fire was quickly extinguished. All incidents were without casualties.
▪️ On the Kursk direction, the Russian Armed Forces in the Korenevskoye sector had the enemy reinforce reserves and attempt 5 counterattacks, without success. In the Glushkovo District, the clearing of forest areas and forest belts adjacent to the border continues. The enemy has definitively lost its offensive potential and is forced to abandon offensive actions, reports the “North” grouping of troops.
▪️ In Toretsk (Dzerzhynsk), heavy fighting (https://t.me/dva_majors/54924) continues in the central part of the city.
▪️ In the Pokrovsk direction, the AFU counterattacked northwest of Novohrodivka, fierce battles are ongoing on the eastern outskirts of Selidovo.
▪️ In the Donetsk direction, the Russian Army has fully occupied Ostrovske, opening the way to Kurakhove.
▪️ In Belgorod Region, in the morning the village of Ustinka in Belgorod District was attacked by a drone. Three civilians were wounded. The victims were taken to the city hospital by passing transport. In the evening, the city of Shebekino came under attack by the AFU, injuring nine civilians. During the day, in the Volokono District near the Yekaterynivka farm, a kamikaze drone attacked a parked GAZelle. In the village of Tishanka, another drone attacked a private household. In the village of Saltykov in Belgorod District, an FPV drone struck a parked passenger car. In Shebekino, as a result of a drone attack, the roof of a production building was pierced. Also in Shebekino, as a result of a shell impact, windows were blown out in three private homes, and facades and fences were damaged by shrapnel. In the village of Bezymeno in the Grayvoron municipal district, a private house caught fire as a result of a UAV attack. In the Krasnoyaruzhsky District, in the village of Ilek-Penkovka, the roof of an administrative building was pierced as a result of an FPV drone attack. In the village of Tishanka in the Volokono District, as a result of the dropping of improvised explosive devices from a UAV by the AFU, the windows were blown out and the gates of a private household were damaged.
▪️ In the DPR, in Horlivka, as a result of the use of barrel artillery by the enemy, a boy born in 2008 and a female boiler room guard of the DPR state-owned enterprise “Donbassteploenergy” born in 1980 were wounded. In the Nikitovsky District of Horlivka, during the elimination of a dry grass fire, there was a UAV attack by the AFU – two employees of the Russian Emergencies Ministry were injured.
Two Majors
Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2024/10/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_12.html
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