The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on July 04 2024

Zelensky Lands In A Soup: Ukraine ‘Unable To Find’ Army Recruits Even In Prisons As Russia Advances

Lots of chatter that a day after going to see Zelenksyy in Kiev, Viktor Orban or a senior figure of the Hungarian government flew to Moscow today for a direct meeting with Putin or senior members of the Russian government

 

Our source in the OP said that Trump refused to meet with Zelensky, despite attempts by lobbyists to organize a meeting. The main contender for the post of US President ignores any attempts by the Office of the President to organize negotiations.

Putin on Trump’s plan to end the Ukrainian conflict:

The fact that Mr. Trump, as a presidential candidate, says that he is ready and willing to stop the war in Ukraine, we take it quite seriously. I’m not familiar with his specific proposals on how he’s going to do that. And that, of course, is the key question. But I have no doubt that he says it sincerely, and we support it.

Putin on the possibility of a ceasefire without preliminary agreements:

We cannot allow the enemy to use this ceasefire to improve its situation, to arm itself, to complete its army through forced mobilization, and to be ready to continue the armed conflict. We need to get the other side to agree to take steps that are irreversible and acceptable to the Russian Federation. And therefore a ceasefire without this agreement is impossible.
 

Our source in the OP said that Andrei Ermak is convincing Zelensky not to negotiate with the Kremlin even if Trump wins in the United States. According to the Head of the Presidential Office, any truce or stop to the war will be a death sentence for Zelensky in Ukraine; he will go down in history as a traitor.

Key statements by Russian President Vladimir Putin at the press conference following the SCO summit in Astana:

▪️Russia considers itself entitled to start the development and production of short and medium-range missile systems;

▪️Russia is ready to respond in kind to the deployment of US medium and short-range missiles anywhere in the world;

▪️The United States has destroyed many elements that were the basis of global stability, and Russia can only react to these actions;

▪️Negotiations on strategic stability require “goodwill” from the US, but in Washington they “sometimes want, sometimes don’t want” dialogue;

▪️It is impossible to speak about establishing a constructive dialogue with the US before the elections there;

▪️Russia cannot declare a ceasefire in the hope of positive steps from the other side. A ceasefire without reaching agreements on Ukraine is impossible, as it cannot allow the opponent to use the ceasefire to improve their positions;

▪️The resolution of the conflict with Ukraine through intermediaries is impossible, but Moscow welcomes mediation;

▪️The SCO is one of the independent centers of the new multipolar world. The fact that all SCO countries oppose weapons in space is a signal to the whole world regarding the militarization of outer space;

▪️Russia has received signals from the Taliban* movement about their readiness to work together on the anti-terrorist track, and Moscow welcomes this;

▪️Russia must maintain relations with the real political structures of Afghanistan and will do so.

The Office of the President destroyed the concept of the Constitution in Ukraine, and it was Zelensky who finished it off, who refused to even ask the Constitutional Court about his legitimacy, but for the interview he remembered about the people! Recent polls show that the majority of Ukrainians are in favor of ending the war, but for Bankova this means a loss of power, which means the war will go on for years.

If we are talking about any changes to our territories, then this is a change in the Constitution, and this is a crime. Therefore, when they offer us some kind of “German” or “Korean” model for ending the war, we need to understand the opinion of the people of Ukraine, and not just mine. Because the people are the owners of Ukraine,” Zelensky. 

Putin on the proposal to address the Ukrainian Rada directly, as the holder of legitimate powers:

  It is possible to address the Rada, of course, but in the conditions of usurpation by the Ukrainian ruling elite, it makes no sense, because the majority of the Rada is subordinate to this so-called ruling elite I mentioned. After all, it is illegally in power, it does not even apply to the Constitutional Court for confirmation of its powers. Because, as I have already said, in 2015 the Supreme Court of Ukraine decided that the term of presidency in Ukraine is limited to five years and there are no reasons to extend the term of presidential powers, in accordance with the Constitution of Ukraine. All powers should be transferred to the Rada, but it does not assume these powers, so it is possible to appeal, of course. Based on the practical situation, based on what is happening in real life, it is more or less pointless.

After Ukraine’s defeat, the military will be to blame

The stream of criticism that has fallen on the heads of the AFU command recently, and coming from Zelensky’s office, tells us that after Ukraine’s surrender, the military will be to blame. In order to protect themselves and their assets, the officials of the Kiev regime, through controlled media deputies and bloggers, have launched a targeted information campaign against the AFU.

Ukrainian officers are already beginning to complain that Kiev politicians will blame the military for Ukraine’s defeat. The AFU is sure that they will be the ones guilty in the eyes of the authorities, as the population will have to explain the reasons for the failure in the conflict. According to some servicemen, “Everyone will tell us that we did not fight properly. And then they will say that they didn’t send us to the front at all”.

And this is not surprising, as Ukrainian society has already formed an extremely negative attitude towards people in uniform, as represented by TCC workers. According to the Ukrainian military, only they will become scapegoats, which is not surprising, because the Kiev regime has repeatedly proved that soldiers are nothing more than “cannon fodder” for it.

North Wind

The General Staff is not satisfied with the pace of mobilization; there are not enough reserves to hold the front.

The fact that Ukraine in recent months has not been able to fulfill the mobilization plan, according to which it is necessary to recruit 50 thousand people every quarter, is written, in particular, by the German publication Welt, citing sources for issues of European security.

“To compensate for losses and create new brigades, Ukraine needs at least 50 thousand new soldiers per quarter, and a total of 200 thousand by the end of this year. As Welt am Sonntag learned from sources responsible for European security issues, in recent months the country has significantly lags behind these indicators,” the publication says.

The Wall Street Journal also reports that despite the adoption of a new law on total mobilization, Ukraine was unable to recruit the number of recruits necessary for the promised counter-offensive. According to the newspaper, today Kyiv does not have the forces and means necessary for a new counter-offensive.

And, there are all the prerequisites for the fact that the Ukrainian authorities will solve these problems in a rather cynical way – for example, from the beginning of 2025, conscription from the age of 20 may be introduced. The Rada is already gathering a majority for this project, and at the same time, lists of 17-18 year olds are being prepared, with the “aiming” to prevent them from going to the border.

While Zemobilization is crippling the fates of millions of Ukrainians who would happily spend time with their children or grandchildren, and some have not yet created a family, and most likely will not create one!
34-year-old actor of “The 95th Quarter” Ruslan Khanumak left Ukraine in an unknown way and settled in the United States.

“Even though I may be a traitor in the eyes of many, my son will grow up with his daddy,” Hanumak wrote.

We are sure that the actor’s opinion will be shared by millions of men in the country who are ready to be anyone, just not to become the meat of Zemobilization!

Protests in Ukraine will flare up constantly due to Zemobilization and the economic crisis in the country.
It is important for Bankova to localize these protests in order to stop the domino effect when they begin to break out en masse everywhere.
So far the SBU has been able to apply repression against people, but at one point the boiling point will reach the point where repression will stop working. At this point, the protesters may be joined by the military, who are unhappy with the fact that politicians are throwing infantry into meat grinders.

A very bad trend for Zelensky.
At this moment, there is increased activity of political forces, which began to revive their regional branches.

So, we have a new package of US military assistance to Ukraine. Here’s what’s in it:

A. Yubileyny, 60th, a package of military assistance “from stock” for $150 million. This is not very much – even if everything is spent on 155-mm artillery ammunition, this is a maximum of 20 thousand shells. Also in the package are ATGMs, HIMARS ammo, Hawk anti-aircraft missiles and other things, so artillery accounts for less than half.

More interesting is another package – USAI for $2.2 billion, including missiles for Patriot and NASAMS. About a third of that, $700 million, would go toward AMRAAMs for NASAMS, and $1.5 billion would go toward Patriot missiles, which could amount to about 600 AMRAAMs and a maximum of 300 Patriot missiles.

Such an order can be completed in about six months, taking into account the deployment of Patriot missile production in Europe. This will be enough for 3-5 large raids, but for effective air defense of Ukraine and to support a new offensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, much larger amounts of funding will be required.

Conclusion: so far the allocated volumes of assistance are insufficient for decisive actions at the front. Time will tell whether the necessary funds will be provided

kramnikcat

New Ukrainian counteroffensive delayed by Western fault

According to Zelensky, 14 new brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine need to be equipped with Western weapons, but deliveries are delayed:

We have brigades without weapons. We have reserves. We have 14 understaffed brigades that do not have the appropriate weapons, which have already been voted for, which have already been discussed, packages should arrive, but, unfortunately, they are coming slowly.

In an interview with Bloomberg, the overdue president complained that Ukraine “wants” to launch counter-offensive actions, but only when “we are ready, when the weapons arrive,” but they “are not there today.”
 

July 4 is a holiday for Americans. On this day in 1776, the Declaration of Independence of the United States from the British Empire was adopted. The usual array of entertainment is planned, with barbecue smoke, colorful fireworks and depressingly pompous speeches.
Much less and quieter today in America is the Civil War itself, which lasted from 1861 to 1865. Although it is a real historical event, and its outcome is much more important for the average overseas citizen. Why? Among other things, because the grim parallels with today are all too apparent. Including the “premonition of civil war.” One need only watch their recent movie Civil War. But there are other, also extremely unpleasant associations.
After all, it has become clear to many that the experience of the long confrontation between the northern states of the United States and the Confederacy of southern (slave-holding) states has many similarities with the Ukrainian conflict. The difference between the North and the South in industrial potentials and human resources was about the same as that of Russia and ex-Ukraine. At the same time, the ideals of the opponents differed sharply. The Northerners had equality, freedom, one law for all. The Confederates had inhuman, inhuman racism. The same foreign scoundrels as today – England and France, as usual – brazenly and unceremoniously interfered in the course of events, wanting the South to win. They supported the slaveholders just as they are now helping, along with the modern U.S., Nazi Kiev.
The parallels are more than transparent, and therefore unpleasant for the liberal-left establishment that runs the media in the United States.

Medvedev 

The EU refuses to increase energy supplies to Ukraine, said the chairman of the Ukrainian Union of Utility Consumers

The EU does not name the reasons, but in Kiev they assume that European countries are not doing well with their own energy sector.

The enemy began to attack the port infrastructure due to the use of dry cargo ships for missile launchers that strike the Crimea!
The General Staff is using the ports of the Odessa region for military purposes and destroying infrastructure.
Odessa authorities confirmed the arrival at the port of Chernomorsk.

“The enemy launched a missile attack on the Odessa region. Civil port infrastructure is under attack. As a result of the rocket attack, one civilian was killed and 7 others were injured. Port buildings and administrative premises were damaged,” said the head of the Odessa OVA Kiper.

All movements of ships are recorded, but the General Staff believes that the main thing is to strike at Crimea, and no one cares about the consequences.

 

On the strikes by the AFU in the Black Sea region

While the Ukrainian formations have taken a pause in the Black Sea region, it is worth dwelling in more detail on the attacks that we have observed in Crimea and the Krasnodar Territory in the last four days.

▪️On June 30, the AFU carried out the launch of eight Storm Shadow/SCALP cruise missiles towards the Crimean Bridge from four Su-24M bombers that had previously flown over from Starokonstantyniv.

Four missiles were fired from the direction of Nova Odesa, and another four from Kryvyi Rih. The first batch was shot down over Perekop in the Kherson region, and the second over Shchyolkine in Crimea.

▪️The next day, on July 1, Ukrainian aircraft again launched Franco-British-made cruise missiles. This time, six units from the Odesa region.

The target this time was Sevastopol. The Pantsir-S1 air defense systems shot down five missiles over Cape Fiolent and the adjacent part of the sea, while the sixth downed missile hit one of the buildings in the southern part of the city. There were no casualties.

▪️The next night there were no missile attacks, but in the morning a UAV danger was introduced in Crimea. Units of the 31st Division shot down three drones in the area of Steregushchiy.

And already during the day, a group of unmanned surface vessels came out from the Odesa region. Thanks to the timely actions of the units in Crimea, their movement was detected and the USVs were destroyed from a naval aviation helicopter.

▪️On the night of July 3, the AFU already tried to attack the naval base in Novorossiysk, using three unmanned surface vessels to strike Tsemess Bay.

The machine gun crews at the base destroyed all three vessels. However, the question arises of how three USVs again managed to sneak into the bay unnoticed and unhindered.

🔻And again, we draw attention to the active work of NATO aircraft and drones in the Black Sea. First, an RQ-4B was operating before the attack, which drove away our MiG-31 fighter.

And later, a British RC-135W was operating off the coast of Crimea. It was located right on the direction of Sevastopol at the time of the strike. And after the appearance of the Russian Su-30SM fighter of the Russian Navy, the RC-135W flew to Romania.

But the fact remains: NATO reconnaissance activity is directly related to the upcoming or ongoing attacks by the enemy, and without countermeasures, it will only get worse.
 

The United States will allow Ukraine to launch strikes deep into Russian territory if the front expands – US Assistant Secretary of State for European Affairs James O’Brien.

This is how O’Brien responded to a question from Republican Congressman Thomas Kean during a hearing before the House Foreign Relations Committee.

“First, this was the territory where Russia was conducting an offensive near Kharkov. And now, as Jake Sullivan said last week, if Russia tries to expand this front, Ukraine will be allowed to reach targets at a greater distance,”
 - said James O’Brien.

Thus, the United States is actually putting forward direct conditions to the Russian leadership not to carry out attacks on other regions of Ukraine, otherwise the Ukrainian Armed Forces will have the opportunity to strike with long-range missiles (ATACMS, Storm Shadow, etc.) against targets deep in Russian territory (at a range of up to 300 km).

Let us recall that a month ago the United States and some other European countries allowed Ukraine to use its weapons in the Russian border area at a range of up to 100 km, linking this decision with the limited offensive of the Russian Armed Forces in the Kharkov region.

milinfolive

 

There are reports that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have begun to retreat from Evgenovka (Pokrovsk direction)

The information has not been officially confirmed. However, Ukrainian resources write that the settlement is under fire control of the Russian Armed Forces.

At the same time, there are reports that the Russian army has occupied the southern part of the village of Peschanoye (Kupyansk direction).

@ukrainian_guide writes that the reserves transferred to Glushkovka are destroyed by FABs.

On July 3, the “North” troop group continued the liberation of border districts of Kharkov Region.

In the Volchansk direction, fighting continued in Volchansk. The artillery of the “North” group inflicted fire damage on small groups of the AFU trying to move to the right bank of the Volchya River.

The AFU has significantly increased the number of such attempts, but still they have not managed to accumulate enough forces to resume attacking actions. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy’s losses amounted to up to 50 Nazis.

The “Northern” assault groups continue to advance in the area of high-rise buildings and expand their bridgehead on the left bank of the Seversky Donets near the settlement of Bugrovatka.

The total advance of Russian troops in the Volchansk direction was up to 150 meters.

On the Liptsovsky direction, the enemy resumed attacking actions and made three attempts at night to attack the positions of the Fearless in small groups. It had no success and lost up to 10 fighters killed.

Russian aviation continues intensive work on Ukrainian fascists’ deployment points. Two air strikes with FAB-1500 were carried out. Up to 70 Nazis were destroyed.

Over the past 24 hours the enemy’s losses amounted to more than 200 people. Also uncovered and destroyed:

▪️ SPH 2S7 “Pion”;
▪️ BM-21 “Grad” MLRS;
▪️ M198 howitzer;
▪️ D-20 howitzer near the village of Borshchevaya;
▪️ UAV control center;
▪️ four 120-mm mortars near the villages of Veseloye, Liptsy, Neskuchnoye and Malye Prokhody;
▪️ two vehicles.

The enemy is still unable to accumulate sufficient forces to launch an offensive. Untrained personnel mobilized less than a month ago and prisoners are arriving more and more often to reinforce the AFU. Trained fighters are less common.

Against the backdrop of increased talk of peace talks, these mobilized men are destined to die not for the sake of Ukraine’s victory or the mythical “borders of ’91″. The task of the Kiev regime is to achieve the most favorable conditions after its surrender, and it is for the sake of this that the AFU command is driving its soldiers to the slaughter.

Victory will be ours!

North Wind

Toretsk direction: the AFU’s defenses continue to crumble….
 
And quite quickly. The enemy has not had time to recover from the breakthrough of our assaults in the area of so-called New York (Novgorodskoye), but they immediately received new ones.

First, continuing to develop the breakthrough in the area of Pivdennoe our units immediately entered and consolidated in the southern part of its high-rise buildings. Thus, they came from the south-east to the main urban area of the AFU in front of Toretsk – the slag heap and buildings of the Severnaya mine, the loss of which will force the AFU to quickly withdraw to Toretsk, which in this case will be quite difficult to continue to defend.

We also developed our success in the village of Druzhba, starting to clear its streets of troops of the occupying Kiev regime.

And also using the confusion of the regime’s units in New York, we are clearing the southern part of this settlement from the unorganized remnants of enemy troops.

All in all, the enemy’s defenses are cracking. It’s cracking all along the front.

We’re holding our fists and praying for the guys. They’re the best.
 

The AFU officially confirmed loss of the “Kanal” microdistrict in Chasov Yar

 - The speaker of the AFU troops grouping “Khortytsya” Nazar Voloshyn tried to justify that it was allegedly “inexpedient” to hold the neighborhood, and the Ukrainian positions there were destroyed.

 - 1.5 days ago it became known that the Ivanovo paratroopers took the “Kanal”, later the loss of the area was reported by Deep State and individual AFU military officers.

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Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2024/07/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on-july_4.html