First 2024 Presidential Debate
Trump’s lead in the RCP National Average (+1.5%) now bigger than it’s been in three months. pic.twitter.com/Bv3UdiEWQM
— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) June 27, 2024
2008 18-29 year olds, who are 34-45 today, voted for Obama by 33 points.
In the NYT poll, 30-44 year olds are Trump +5.
From this to MAGA in just 16 years. https://t.co/QqZzSa1KAl pic.twitter.com/B0gG4kZayt
— Patrick Ruffini (@PatrickRuffini) June 27, 2024
Quinnipiac national polls
January: ? Biden +6
February: ? Biden +4
March: ? Biden +3
April: ? TIED
May: ? Biden +1
June: ? Trump +4
— umichvoter ???? (@umichvoter) June 26, 2024
? Gallup Poll: Favorability Ratings
Joe Biden
Favorable: 37%
Unfavorable: 61%
Net: -24% (new low)
——
Donald Trump
Favorable: 46%
Unfavorable: 52%
Net: -6% (highest since April 2020)
—
Favorable/Unfavorable TrendsJoe Biden
• Oct. 2020: 49-48 (+1)
• Jan. 2021: 59-39 (+20)… pic.twitter.com/VCR4QfqwJW— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) June 27, 2024
#NEW @NateSilver538 Forecast:
Chance of winning:
Trump 66%
Biden 34%
.
Electoral votes:
Trump 287
Biden 250https://t.co/70wWBjEaZX pic.twitter.com/XSimuXTmKk
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) June 26, 2024
Wow. In a June 2020 NYT/Siena poll, Trump was backed by only 5% of Black voters. In the new June 2024 NYT/Siena poll, Trump is backed by 30% of Black voters. That’s an astronomical jump, and it’s being replicated in poll after poll
— Michael Tracey (@mtracey) June 27, 2024
It is June 27.
Donald Trump has been convicted of 34 felonies.
Trump is way up in the Sunbelt swing states and has held on to his small but consistent 1 to 2 point lead in national polls for nearly a year now. Joe Biden continues to hit new levels of unpopularity in Gallup polling. Blacks, Hispanics, Millennials and Zoomers are deserting his coalition in droves. It has gotten so bad for Joe Biden that he is losing the Quinnipiac poll. Nate Silver is giving Trump a 65% chance to win the Electoral College. Some polls have Virginia and Minnesota either tied or Trump ahead.
Republican voters are a lot more enthusiastic about voting and donating in 2024. Trump is doing a much better job of unifying his 2020 coalition. The latest New York Times poll has Trump winning 30% of the black vote. If that number is even remotely close to being true, Joe Biden is cooked in Georgia and the Rust Belt. Trump also has a history of overperforming his polls in 2016 and 2020. The polls are likely understating his support in the Rust Belt where he is officially up in Michigan and Pennsylvania.
In order to change the trajectory of the race, Joe Biden needs either a miraculous debate performance tonight that changes everything or Trump being sent to prison in the Stormy Daniels case. Neither outcome seems likely. We keep waiting for this dynamic to change. It hasn’t aside from small bounces for Biden after the State of the Union address and the verdict in the Stormy Daniels case.
Note: Imagine how toxic it will be if Trump is sent to prison before the Republican convention while being the clear frontrunner. We could be less than three weeks away from this.
Source: https://occidentaldissent.com/2024/06/27/first-2024-presidential-debate/
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