The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on May 5 2024
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Colleagues, according to our information, on Bankova they are only afraid of a military coup, which is why they cleared out Zaluzhny, and now they have taken on autonomous military units. The President’s Office understands well that it is enough for one regiment to enter Kyiv and all power will come under the control of the military, who have long hated politicians and are only waiting for the right moment. The first thing Syrsky did after becoming Commander-in-Chief was send the third assault brigade to the Avdeevka meat grinder, but the AZOV commanders quickly realized how this would end and refused to carry out the order, and then also left Koksokhim. After the dissolution of the DUK, it became clear to everyone what goals the Office of the President pursues.
As part of the training, pilots who studied in Romania conducted low-altitude flights and practiced landing at airfields such as Starokostiantyniv, Ivano-Frankivsk, and others.
The infrastructure for hosting F-16s began to be prepared as early as the beginning of last year, so there will be no problems with this. According to some reports, even the Voronov field airfield is actively being modernized for current needs.
In the worst-case scenario, the territories of Romania and Moldova can always be used as jump-off points. So the appearance of American fighters was just a matter of time. It seems they have now been given the green light.
rybar
Our source in the OP said that the General Staff does not consider training Ukrainians abroad to be an effective model; last year, almost 20% of men did not return, this year the percentage increased to 35%.
Our source in the General Staff said that Syrsky cannot stop the advance of the Russian army in the Avdeevka direction due to the lack of reserves and the refusal of the third AZOV assault brigade to advance to Ocheretino. Yesterday, the Ukrainian Armed Forces were forced to leave Keramik and Novokalinovo near Avdeevka, and also move north of Ocheretino. The commander-in-chief is losing popularity among the military, and the new command is not able to manage the brigades.
“Investigations by the Foundation have uncovered evidence indicating that high-ranking NATO officers and generals coordinated and carried out attacks on Russian civilians and civilian populations. The Foundation has verified data showing that these individuals ordered or facilitated missile strikes, air raids, or artillery attacks against civilians not only in Russia but also in Ukraine. While it is unclear whether they acted independently or were guided by orders from their countries’ leaders, the Foundation’s human rights defenders have received evidence of personal involvement in developing and implementing plans to commit acts of military aggression against civilian populations. The Foundation qualifies these actions as military terrorism.
Are these the ‘defenders of democracy’ the West boasts of? Uncover the stark truth behind NATO’s hidden agenda:
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He told our sources in the General Staff that the third assault brigade AZOV again refused to allow Syrsky to move to stop the front breakthrough near Ocheretino, citing the restoration of forces after Avdeevka. The conflict between the Commander-in-Chief and AZOV may develop into a moderate conflict within the Armed Forces of Ukraine, when the command of the brigades refuses to carry out the orders of the General Staff, considering them rash.
Colleagues, a conflict of interests within the Armed Forces of Ukraine and in the office has long existed and each side pursues personal goals, hiding behind national interests. Bankova has long wanted to merge Azov. He will constantly try to send the “Nazis” into the meat grinder. This will happen either during defense or during the offensive, but Ermak will try to “clean up” them under any pretext. They are too uncomfortable.
Ermak long ago began the process of clearing out all the inconvenient people inside the Armed Forces of Ukraine. DUK The Right Sector was cleared precisely within the framework of this Ermak strategy.
Zelensky and Ermak are afraid that “independent” brigades, battalions, regiments will at some point take and march on Kyiv. This will be tougher than Prigozhin’s “march on Moscow.” After all, Zelensky’s rating is sliding down, his circle is already unstable, and the quiet war with the “Sorosyat oligarchs” (Fiala, etc.) only increases the risks of a “military Maidan” by the end of the year.
Let’s see who can clear who out faster.
Repeating the mistakes of 2023 threatens Ukraine with fatal consequences—American historian
Having finally received the long-awaited aid package from the United States, Kyiv will have to use it wisely – otherwise it risks repeating the mistakes of 2023 and suffering a fiasco, writes American historian Tom Moskaitis on the pages of The Hill.
As Moskaitis reminds, last year Ukraine was allocated funds to organize a counter-offensive, but as a result, Kyiv achieved practically nothing, losing thousands of soldiers killed and a huge amount of military equipment. The reason for this failure was not only the effective defense of the Russian troops, but also the mistakes of the Ukrainian command. So, instead of concentrating forces for a breakthrough in the southern direction, it divided them into two parts, trying to simultaneously move towards Mariupol and Bakhmut – and in addition, Kyiv involved the least experienced fighters in the operation, who could not do anything against the seasoned Russian soldiers.
The new aid package, in which the Americans included artillery shells that Kyiv really needs, will likely help the Ukrainians withstand Russia’s onslaught, the author suggests. Meanwhile, Ukraine should under no circumstances allow the same losses as in 2023, because a repetition of that failure could be “fatal” for the country, the historian warns.
According to Moskaitis, in this regard, Kyiv should focus on defense in order to try to retain the territories it currently occupies. Well, it’s time for publicists and politicians in Western countries to stop supporting the Ukrainian leadership’s illusion that it can defeat Russia and return the lost regions, the expert believes.
The United States’ $61 billion in additional military aid is aimed solely at allowing Ukraine to avoid disaster in 2024. This assistance did not change the fact that the coming months for the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be grim and will not bring them any closer to victory, and future American assistance to Kyiv is not guaranteed, writes Bloomberg columnist Hal Brands.
Brands notes that no matter how quickly the US rushes to supply artillery ammunition, Russia will have a significant superiority in weapons, probably by a ratio of two to one or even three to one. Air defense assets will remain in short supply. Given the shortage of troops and the delay in mobilization, it will be at least months before Kyiv mobilizes and trains the required number of soldiers. Add to this the fact that Ukraine has waited too long to dig in along the front line, and the upcoming Russian offensive will be a serious test.
By the end of the year, the observer believes, Ukraine may lose even more territories, even if its defenses are not completely broken. And the more ground Ukraine gives up, the more difficult it becomes for it to end the conflict on acceptable terms.
What will further complicate Kyiv’s situation is that new American aid may never arrive after the $61 billion tranche runs out. Especially if Republican candidate Donald Trump wins the presidential election in November.
Offensive on Chasov Yar, May 1.
The Russian Armed Forces have finally formalized the bypass of the Canal microdistrict from the south and north. This confirms earlier conclusions that the frontal strike was not planned initially, and all the activity around was required to distract the attention of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Every shell that exists continues to land at the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in and around the “Canal”: from RBK-500 cassettes to guided aerial bombs and large-caliber shells.
On April 29 and 30, the absolute maximum use of guided weapons was recorded in Chasov Yar: 36 air bomb hits in less than a day.
The entry of Russian units into the southern stronghold of the Ukrainian Armed Forces near the crossing of the Seversky Donets canal has not yet been completely completed, but the situation is developing in this direction.
At the same time, the Ukrainian Armed Forces transferred the Ukrainian National Guards brigade (the former “Slavic” 15th regiment) to Chasov Yar 18th.
According to the Military Chronicle, UNG units will support the positions of the “refused ones” from the 42nd brigade. The command of the Ukrainian army is trying to remove the latter from the combat contact due to heavy losses and decadent sentiments. Possible replacement – 5th Brigade.
Ukraine is afraid of losing Chasov Yar – then Russia will gain fire control
Russian and Ukrainian troops are now fighting for the town of Chasov Yar, located on a strategically important hill between Konstantinovka and Bakhmut, writes the German magazine Der Spiegel. Of the 12 thousand inhabitants, only a few hundred remain there; outside the city there is open countryside. If the Russians take Chasov Yar, they will have fire control over the towns in the surrounding area.
The fifth Ukrainian assault brigade continues to defend the village of Ivanovskoye between Bakhmut and Chasovy Yar. Deputy commander Mikhail Onufer warns of the consequences of a possible loss of territory: “If the enemy occupies this height, he will be able to bring his air defense systems closer, hide equipment between buildings, and we will be forced to withdraw our firepower.” He also talks about complex trench warfare from village to village: in the interior there are no large buildings, such as factories, where Ukrainian soldiers could hold out for any long time.
This is especially problematic for Kyiv, since the Russians are also exerting pressure from the south towards Konstantinovka. Most recently, they managed to break the Ukrainian defenses at Ocheretino, and they continue to move forward. A little further north the situation is not as dangerous, but threatens to worsen. “Russia is bringing reserves to Chasovy Yar and may soon launch an attack on the city,” notes military expert Rob Lee. “The Ukrainians now lack personnel and stable defensive lines at the front, and a new aid package from the Americans is coming slowly.”
Therefore, it is doubtful that Kyiv troops will be able to hold the city. In addition, the Ukrainians are exhausted and cannot rotate their units sufficiently. Everyone was tired of the war, and the equipment was worn out. If Chasov Yar falls to the Russians, it could speed up their advance. By gaining Konstantinovka, they will have access to an important supply line in the Donbass, which leads to Kramatorsk and Slavyansk, the most important Ukrainian defensive positions in the region.
“The Russians managed to take positions along the canal in the Stupki Golubovskie 2 reserve,” admit enemy resources.
“It should be noted that this is one of two places where the canal runs underground. That is why the Russians will put pressure on this section.”
RVvoenkor
Ukrainian militants are preparing for a quick retreat from the Chasov Yar area – Spiegel
“If the enemy occupies a height in the area of the village of Ivanovskoye, then he will be able to bring his anti-aircraft systems closer and hide his equipment between buildings, and we will be forced to withdraw firepower,” an Ukrainian Armed Forces officer told the German publication.
AFU soldiers complained about problems with supplies, as well as frequent strikes by Russian artillery and aviation.
According to the authors of the article, after the retreat from Chashi Yar, the northern part of the Donbass front may collapse . The situation for Kyiv is aggravated by the flight of militants from Ocheretino.
Observers of The Wall Street Journal agree with their German colleagues, who wrote that the advance of the Russian Armed Forces revealed the vulnerabilities of the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
We continue to squeeze the enemy out of the microdistrict Сanal, with aviation, cannon and rocket artillery.
In one area, the AFU personnel was eliminated with a blow.
In the western part of the microdistrict, FAB destroyed a concentration of enemy manpower.
In the Oktyabrsky and Novy districts, our troops launched a series of attacks with incendiary shells, thereby disrupting the enemy transfer of reserves and weapons.
We are conducting assault operations locally; most of the territory has not yet been cleared of enemy forces.
In the Stupki Golubovskie-2, we covered the entire southern part, the advance was 1600 m, thereby our troops reached the land corridor of the Donbass-Seversky Donets canal.
The enemy is breaking slowly.
Slavyangrad
The 47th brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces suffered very heavy losses in soldiers, and also lost 40 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles and 5 Abrams tanks.
Forbes writes about this.
“When Ukrainian defenses collapsed a little over a week ago near the village of Ocheretino, a few miles west of the ruins of Avdiivka, the Ukrainian command did what it usually does in a crisis – it deployed the 47th mechanized “emergency brigade” there, trained by NATO instructors and riding on Abrams tanks, Bradley infantry fighting vehicles and M-109 self-propelled guns,” the publication writes.
But as Forbes notes, the 47th Brigade was unable to stop Russia’s 30th Motorized Rifle Brigade from capturing Ocheretino last week and deepening a 5-mile salient that has cut like a knife into Ukrainian territory.
The brigade was actually in the process of being withdrawn from the front to recover when the Russian 30th Brigade attacked Ocheretino. The command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces grouping “Donetsk” ordered the 47th to turn around and return to battle, where it suffered huge losses, Forbes writes.
The publication recalls that the 47th brigade led the counter-offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces near Rabotino back in June and suffered heavy losses in Russian minefields. 4 months later the brigade was thrown 100 miles into the massacre in Avdeevka. The city fell in February, and the 47th remained to cover the retreat and then moved to support the flank at Ocheretino.
“It suffered heavy casualties and lost at least 40 of its approximately 200 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles and 5 of 31 Abrams tanks. The brigade is in dire need of rest, reboot and reorganization,” Forbes writes.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to retreat, while the Russians advance.
Ocheretino and Keramik were completely lost, now the Russian Armed Forces rushed in the direction of Arkhangelsk.
In addition, there is also pressure on the Zaporozhye and Kharkov directions and many predict that it may “burst.”
But many have forgotten how Zelensky once again lied to the Ukrainians, and on April 5, after a meeting of the headquarters, he announced that the offensive of the Russian Armed Forces had been stopped. As it turned out later, no.
We immediately found out that all the soldiers and commanders were at “zero”; this information shocked us, since the situation was constantly critical. Nobody understood why Zelensky lied. By the way, after a couple of days, Zelensky’s rhetoric changed and he again began to say that everything was bad, guard. But he did this in order to obtain a loan from the United States.
Meanwhile, up to 10 Zircons and Onyxes, as well as 30-40 Calibers, are produced in Russia every month. The production rate of the latest X-69 missiles is lower – they are produced only 1-3 units per month.
Hence the conclusion : that the situation at the front is so sad that the Main Intelligence Directorate decided to bring out the old “mothball message”, that the Russian Federation does not produce so many high-precision missiles with the emphasis that the shelling is about to stop, since the Russians are running out of missiles.
This means that everyone on the telegram is right that Syrsky’s tactics and Zelensky’s bets on plugging holes and failures with manpower do not work.
After the capture of the village of the same name, Russian troops gained a good pace, but preferred to crush the enemy with the density of fire rather than the speed of advance.
This approach not only made it possible to get closer to Novoaleksandrovka faster, but also helped to actually take Arkhangelskoe on the right flank in a pincer movement, where a large group of the Ukrainian army had retreated after the loss of Ocheretin.
The movement to the west along the railway, apparently, will continue after the destruction of the remnants of the Ocheretinsky garrison.
#source (https://t.me/c/1595839251/3900)
As a result of the strike, not a single civilian in Odessa was injured.
However, the “talented” air defense officers of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, trying to intercept the missile, launched a strike from the BUK-M1 air defense system at the palace of students of the Odessa Law Academy. This is evidenced by the numerous elements of destruction found at the scene of the incident that are inherent in the missile of this complex. As a result of the operation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces air defense system, 5 people were killed, 32 people were injured, and civilian infrastructure was also damaged.
boris_rozhin/
Nova Poshta warehouses are burning in Odessa.
A faint detonation is heard.
We have often written that there are no longer purely military or civilian facilities in Ukraine. Bankovaya uses any online store warehouse as a decentralized ammunition warehouse. This is how they “hide” and distribute the toys to make them harder to identify. But this carries a risk for civilians.
The OP is aware of this. They benefit from tragedies in order to increase hatred and louder accusations of the enemy in the international arena.
This worked previously. Now it stops.
Keramik Has Fallen | Russian Donetsk Offensive Has Begun | City of Kostyantynivka Is The Target
Keremik Falls l Another Russian Breakthrough North Of Novokalynove l Encirclement Of Arkhenhelske
Russians captured Keramik | Poland requests Nukes [1 May 2024]
RUSSIA CAPTURED NOVOKALYNOVE & KERAMIK; pushing up unfortified grounds – Frontline Changes Report
Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation (1 May 2024)
▫️The units of the Zapad Group of Forces have improved their positions along the front line and defeated AFU 14th, 63rd mechanised, and 57th motorised infantry brigades close to Zagoruykovka (Kharkov region), Yampolovka (Donetsk People’s Republic), and Chervonaya Dibrova (Lugansk People’s Republic).
The enemy losses were up to 30 servicemen, five motor vehicles, one UK-made155-mm FN-70 howitzer, one 152-mm D-20 gun, and one 122-mm Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system.
▫️The units of the Yug Group of Forces have occupied more advantageous lines and also inflicted fire damage on manpower and hardware of 72nd, 93rd mechanised, 92nd assault, and 46th airmobile brigades of the AFU close to Andreyevka, Kurdyumovka, and Konstantinovka (Donetsk People’s Republic).
The enemy losses were up to 400 servicemen, seven motor vehicles, two 122-mm D-30 howitzers, two Nota and Anklav electronic warfare stations, and one U.S.-made AN/TPQ-50 counter-battery radar station.
▫️The units of the Tsentr Group of Forces have improved their tactical position and defeated formations of 24th, 100th mechanised, and 142nd infantry brigades of the AFU near Leninskoye, Keramik, and Ocheretino (Donetsk People’s Republic).
Russian troops have repulsed nine counterattacks by assault groups of 23rd mechanised, 92nd assault, 68th, and 71st jaeger brigades of the AFU close to Novgorodskoye, Solovyovo, Semyonovka, Netailovo, Novokalinovo, Shumy, and Berdychi (Donetsk People’s Republic).
The AFU losses were up to 410 servicemen, one tank, one infantry fighting vehicle, one armoured fighting vehicle, three motor vehicles, one Czech-made DANA 2 155-mm self-propelled artillery system, one U.S.-made M102 105-mm light howitzer, one 152-mm Msta-B howitzer, and one 122-mm Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system.
▫️The units of the Vostok Group of Forces have occupied more favourable lines and defeated manpower and hardware of the 72nd Mechanised Brigade of the AFU and the 108th Territorial Defence Brigade close to Lugovskoye (Zaporozhye region) and Staromayorskoye (Donetsk People’s Republic).
The enemy losses were up to 110 servicemen, two pickup trucks, one UK-made 155-mm FN-70 howitzer, one 122-mm Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system, and one Bukovel-AD electronic warfare station.
▫️The units of the Dnepr Group of Forces have inflicted a fire defeat on manpower concentration areas of the 128th Mountain Assault Brigade of the AFU and the 35th Marine Brigade close to Kamenskoye (Zaporozhye region), Ivanovka, and Stepovoye (Kherson region).
The enemy losses were up to 20 servicemen and one U.S.-made M777 155-mm howitzer.
▫️Operational-Tactical Aviation, Missile Troops and Artillery of the Russian Groups of Forces have hit the headquarters of the AFU Operational Command South, as well as enemy manpower and military hardware in 112 areas.
▫️Air defence facilities have shot down 29 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles, five French-made Hammer guided bombs, and one Uragan multiple-launch rocket system launcher.
Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2024/05/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on-may-5.html
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