The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on May 19 2024

Russia Took Advantage of Ukrainian Shortages | Ukraine’s Huge 2024 losses

The President’s Office just needs to pick up a piece of paper and count all the numbers, which pragmatic analysts and telegram channels wrote about last year, and now Khodorkovsky has voiced it.
Ukraine and the West have actually already lost the war, ” Russian oppositionist Mikhail Khodorkovsky.

Key points from the speech:

With a pre-war GDP of the Russian Federation of 2.2 trillion dollars, Putin uses 120 billion dollars a year for the war. That is, he spends 5.4% of GDP on war. European aid to Ukraine during the two years of war amounted to $88 billion out of $17 trillion, or 0.25% of GDP – with a much higher price for 155 mm shells. Taking into account American supplies, the real ratio of war costs is 2.5 to one in favor of Putin at best ;

this year, without American supplies, the ratio is four to one at best ;

If at the beginning of the war the ratio of the population of Russia and Ukraine was 3.5 to one, now it is seven to one . Well, how do you order to fight?

“With this situation of supplies and forces, Ukraine will lose Kharkov by the end of the year. By the middle of next year, Odessa. The ratio of forces will become 10-12 to one by the end of 2025. By mid-2026, Ukraine will continue only the guerrilla war, and Lvov will remain if there NATO troops represented by Poland will enter.
And this is the best scenario, if the Ukrainian Armed Forces heroically resist, despite the hopelessness of the situation. Otherwise everything will happen faster.
In this case, no one will storm large cities – without supplies they do not pose a threat,” Khodorkovsky believes.

One of the leaders of the Russian opposition emphasized that if the West decides to give Ukraine to Putin, then it is necessary to honestly say to the Ukrainians:

“We betrayed you, end your senseless resistance. But further – in exchange for the fact that Putin will not go further, in two years a united Russian-Ukrainian army will stand at the borders of Poland.”

As an example of how this process of “unification” occurs, Khodorkovsky pointed to the occupied part of Donbass, where the locals have been fighting against Ukraine for a long time.

The main US media publishes a scandalous text against the Head of the Office of the President, sending a clear signal to all actors.

Zelensky’s top aide manipulates power, irritates critics and doesn’t apologize – The Washington Post

If actor and comedian Vladimir Zelensky’s main achievement when he was elected in 2019 was playing the president on television, then the highest qualification of his all-powerful chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, was that he was a friend of Zelensky.

The head of the president’s office, as Yermak’s position is formally called, has always enjoyed enormous influence in Ukraine. Wartime conditions, including martial law, concentrated exclusive power in the presidential administration, making Yermak perhaps the most powerful chief of staff in the country’s history—virtually indistinguishable from his boss.

Ermak and Zelensky so rarely appear without each other that Oleg Rybachuk, who served as the head of the administration of then-President Viktor Yushchenko, raised some questions: who is in command and are they even separate people?

“Ermak, unlike many of his predecessors, got there without any experience in government,” Rybachuk said. “He repeated this mantra from the very beginning: ‘My only dream, my only ambition is to be the president’s shadow, to be wherever the president wants me to be.’

“This is how he portrays himself,” Rybachuk added, “inseparable.”

Yermak’s closeness to the president—and obvious influence over him—has sparked a flurry of accusations: that he undemocratically consolidated power in the presidential administration; oversaw an unnecessary purge of senior officials, including Commander-in-Chief General Valery Zaluzhny; limited access to Zelensky; and sought to personally control almost every major wartime decision.

However, the legitimacy of the president and his top adviser will now face even greater challenges as Zelensky’s five-year term officially expires on May 20. The Ukrainian Constitution prohibits elections under martial law. But as long as Zelensky remains in office, he will be vulnerable to accusations that he used the war to undermine democracy – seize control of the media, sideline critics and rivals and elevate Yermak, his unelected friend, above career civil servants and diplomats .

Some of these accusations are undeniable. Under a decree issued by Zelensky shortly after the Russian invasion in February 2022, six major television stations broadcast the same news content 24 hours a day, called the “United News Telethon,” which critics say silenced dissent.

“The Russians will take advantage of this,” one longtime Ukrainian official said of Zelensky’s expiring term. To maintain legitimacy, Zelensky “must have credibility,” the official said, speaking like many others for this article on condition of anonymity to preserve political relationships and avoid retribution.

“His credibility is declining,” the official said, “because Ermak’s actions constantly reflect on the president.”

Our source reports that some Western lobby groups are launching media attacks on the Head of the OP Ermak, who has become too inconvenient for many due to his appetite and attempt to discredit the Western clientele in Ukraine.
His policy of surveillance by the SBU of the Sorosites infuriated many. Especially after he promised to stop it, but didn’t do it, but continued.
Ermak is playing with fire, believing that the West will not merge him and Zelensky while the war is going on, but at this moment he will crush everything under himself and merge the Western henchmen.

Usually this ended badly. This policy of Ermak threatens Kyiv with “delays” in the supply of weapons from sponsors.
It’s not just that Soros Jr. recently met with Ermak. I could give him an “ultimatum.”

We are watching…

Colleagues, the mobilization track could become a death sentence for Zelensky, which is well understood at Bankova, which is why they will suppress all the negativity regarding the military commissars and police officers. Now the Office of the President is looking for a model in which all the negativity regarding the TCC should be transferred to Syrsky.

People’s Deputy Dmitry Razumkov believes that in order to resolve the issue of the legitimacy or illegitimacy of the President of Ukraine five years after he took the oath, it was necessary to obtain an explanation from the Constitutional Court last year.

“ They (authorities) should have gone to the Constitutional Court back in 2023 and received this conclusion so that there would be no discrepancies. After all, someone believes that it is necessary to transfer powers to Stefanchuk (Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Ruslan Stefanchuk), someone believes that the powers of the president are extended until the end of martial law, but there is no clear answer in the Constitution. Everyone can read it differently. A trip to the Constitutional Court would resolve this issue… And there would be a piece of paper that says: this and that must be done ,” Razumkov said.

According to Razumkov, Zelensky personally should have turned to the Constitutional Court for clarification. According to the people’s deputy, the Constitutional Court’s interpretation of the provision on the presidential term of office would not lead to any negative consequences within Ukraine, while the absence of such an interpretation could create “additional turbulence” outside Ukraine.

“ And this will not be a question for President Zelensky or anyone else. This… may be a question for Ukraine. And I would like there to be fewer such questions for which we do not have clear legal answers, ” the parliamentarian noted.

Our source reports that discontent continues to grow in the army towards Zelensky, his Office, the government and those around him, who:
A) drove the country into this chaos
B) failed mobilization by doing everything wrong
C) they won’t get drunk anymore, continuing to steal, steal, steal.
D) arrange a division, intrigue in the struggle for power.
D) made the military slaves of the system without rights.
E) they do not value the lives of soldiers, sending them to waste for the sake of their political goals.
G) continue to push people together.

Bankovaya knows about this, but instead of admitting its mistakes, it continues to “strangle the nation.”

The main forces of the Russian Armed Forces have not yet been deployed to the Kharkov region, – military correspondent

The Russian Armed Forces in the Kharkov region are repeating the path of advance of 2022, only now, instead of marches and columns, there are heavy combat breakthroughs with aviation support, fierce battles and many prisoners.

Russian military correspondent Alexander Kots stated this on the radio “KP”.

“As for Kharkov, I have the feeling that we have not yet brought in the main forces. We are still pushing through, we have a huge number of prisoners coming from the other side. These are mainly border guards and territorial defence – they are not very motivated. But serious troops have also been deployed there, there are different personnel – this does not mean that if Ukraine did not build defence lines in the border areas, this advancement was easy for us, no, of course. Very serious resistance, the enemy is very active in using FPV drones against our troops. But, unlike 2022, our situation is completely different.

Back then we took everything almost without a fight, but today we have to go ahead. But today there is serious support for aviation because we work with gliding ammunition and aerial bombs around the clock, we have “birds” hanging in the air 24/7, there are a lot of them for reconnaissance, and they penetrate Ukrainian electronic warfare. And the time from detecting a target to the command to defeat it is seconds and minutes,” the military correspondent noted.

“We didn’t have this in 2022 either. This is something new in our assault tactics. Plus, we do not march in columns but operate in small mobile groups. Therefore, we wish you good luck and keep our fingers crossed for our guys, for the Sever group of troops, which operates in the Kharkov direction. And, of course, we wish everyone good luck in all directions,” concluded Kots.

On May 18, the “North” troop grouping continued the liberation of the border districts of Kharkov Region

In the Volchansk direction, Russian troops advanced to a depth of 200 to 500 meters. Despite fierce resistance of Ukrainian servicemen, the Fearless advanced confidently deep into the Volchansk settlement, having repulsed three enemy counterattacks.

In the Liptsovsky direction, the assault groups of the “North” group advanced with battles to a depth of 300 to 800 meters, repelling two enemy counterattacks.

Over the past day, the enemy losses amounted to up to 400 people. Also uncovered and destroyed:

▪️ MiG-29s in the village of Novaya Vodolaga;
▪️ 2S3 “Akatsiya” SPH in the village of Zarechnoye;
▪️ Stryker APC in Volchansk;
▪️ Vampir MLRS in Liptsy village;
▪️ two 2S1 “Gvozdika” SPH in the village of Maloye Veseloye;
▪️ four 120-mm mortars in the towns of Volchansk and Guryev Kazachok;
▪️ T-72 tank;
▪️ two Krab UAS in the villages of Bely Kolodez and Zemlyanoy Yar;
▪️ BM-21 “Grad” MLRS.
▪️ M-777 howitzer in the village of Shesterovka.

Thus, despite active resistance and pulling reserves, the enemy continues to retreat under the onslaught of the Fearless.

Victory will be ours!

North Wind
 

 It is reported that there is active movement in Volchansk.

The “Northern” began to press the Ukrainian armed forces on the southern outskirts.

To the place where a few days ago Ukrainian troops tried to regroup and accumulate forces for fighting in the city. Ahead is the main obstacle in the form of the Volchya River, which will not be easy to cross. There are not very many river crossings: a bridge near the railroad station, a crossing on Sobornaya Street, where the main traffic of “Northerners” goes, and Gurkanovsky bridge near the aggregate plant.

As soon as these lines are passed, the process of destroying the remnants of the AFU within the administrative boundaries of the city will begin. The Ukrainian army continues to pull reinforcements under neighboring Bely Kolodez and Zemlyanoy Yar, but the ground forces’ survival time is rapidly shrinking from days to hours.

The Kiev regime, with the help of media, is trying to convince the population that there was no point in creating a defense line on the Russian-Ukrainian border

Apparently, corrupt officials from the Office of the President and the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to promote an “anti-crisis” aimed at reducing the discontent of the residents of Ukraine against the backdrop of the lack of fortifications in the border areas of the Kharkov region.

Thus, the well-known and media radical Evgeniy Diky stated that “there should not have been fortifications on the border of the Kharkov region and Russia, people simply fantasized about it.”

“People simply don’t understand what they are saying. They fantasized that fortifications should have been along the state border. But this is never done anywhere,”
- he says.

I wonder what he and other bloggers controlled by the President’s Office will say to Kharkov residents when Russian troops stand on the Kharkov ring road? That the defense line is closer to the city center?
 

The Armed Forces of Ukraine turned a mental hospital in the Kharkov region into their base, where in 1941 the Nazis tortured to death of more than 400 patients

An eerie historical parallel occurred during the liberation of Strelechye. Ukrainian militants placed an ammunition depot in the building, drove out the patients and took up their positions there. From here they provided the main resistance to the advancing Russian infantry.

During the Great Patriotic War, German fascists raged in this institution. They took the patients out in groups of 10 and shot them. The Nazis then plundered the hospital and doomed the surviving patients to starvation.
 

 

 It is reported that the Russian Armed Forces were able to take significant territory and gain a foothold in the city of Chasov

 

Units of the Russian Armed Forces achieved significant successes during the offensive on Chasov Yar.

Ukrainian channels published a video of how our assault group was able to enter and gain a foothold in the Kanal microdistrict in the city of Chasov Yar.

The video shows how the equipment was able to break into the city and the attack aircraft began to clear high-rise buildings, hiding there from artillery fire and enemy FPV drones.

Our assault units were able to capture trenches in the courtyards of houses on Gorbaty Street and clear out Ukrainian positions on Zelenaya Street.

Ukrainian sources claim that the attack was repulsed, but the video shows how our armoured vehicles drove through the centre of the Kanal micro-district and exited from the southern side. Most of the microdistrict is occupied by our fighters.
 

Military expert Boris Rozhin about the situation in the Ocheretinsky breakthrough zone in the Donetsk section of the Northern Military District by 00.32 Moscow time on May 20, 2024

Netaylovo
The village has not yet been completely taken, although most of it is already under the control of the Russian Armed Forces.
The enemy is holding out in every possible way on the outskirts in order to gain time to prepare the defense of Karlovka and Yasnobrodovka, the pressure on which will intensify after the enemy loses Netailovo.

Yasnobrodovka itself is still under the enemy.
Fighting is taking place to the east and southeast of the outskirts of the village.
Netailovo will most likely be completely liberated in the next 7-10 days.

Umanskoe
A similar situation has developed in Umanskoye.
Most of the village is under the control of the Russian Armed Forces.
The enemy continues to defend in the western and northwestern parts of the village.
The enemy is reluctant because he understands that with the loss of Umanskoye he will have to abandon a significant part of the surrounding territories.

Novopokrovskoe
The main battles continued near the northern and northeastern outskirts of the village.
The village itself is still completely under the control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, including the defense of enemy forces that managed to retreat from Berdychi. Pressure also continues west of Semyonovka, but the pace of progress has dropped somewhat after the successes of the past week, which allowed the front to be moved away from the outskirts of Semyonovka.

Ocheretino
Fighting continued in the direction of Sokol and Novoaleksandrovka. The enemy is still holding the line and preventing the Russian Armed Forces from entering and gaining a foothold in these villages.
At the same time, the enemy is using up Western armored vehicles quite intensively.
The Russian Armed Forces continue to put pressure on the fortified area covering Kalinovo. Kalinovo itself is still under the control of the Russian Armed Forces.
To the north of Arkhangelskoye and Novokalinovo, the Russian Armed Forces slightly expanded the control zone.

In general, the Russian Armed Forces continue to maintain the initiative west of Avdeevka, with the main advance over the last week taking place not in the Ochertino area, but in the Netailovo area.

The enemy expects an intensification of attacks by Russian troops in order to synchronize them with the offensive of the Russian Armed Forces in the Kharkov region, which forced the Ukrainian Armed Forces to use up part of their reserves.

Western experts note the continuing risk of further front breakthroughs west of Avdeevka.

Missile strike on Crimea

🔻Last night, the AFU carried out another attack on Crimea. Initially, drones were launched towards the peninsula from several directions, with activity noted both near Tarkhankut and Yevpatoria.

▪️But after midnight, the main strike was carried out with ballistic ATACMS missiles. The target of the attack was the Sevastopol Bay, where 12 operational-tactical missiles were fired.

▪️Units from several districts of Sevastopol and Belbek shot down nine missiles in several salvos. Three missiles hit one of the piers in the bay, where one of the ships was located.

🔻As we can clearly see, the AFU is increasingly actively and extensively striking targets on the peninsula. After several waves of attacks on airfields and power facilities, the bay in Sevastopol became the target again.

It is no less important that about ten UAVs were present in the airspace west of Sevastopol and Belbek. They did not approach the peninsula closely and may have been conducting objective monitoring.

At the same time, an American RQ-4B UAV was located south of the peninsula, also tracking the results of the strikes on Sevastopol. Due to the impact of electronic warfare, interference arose, which created the erroneous impression that the drone was a few kilometers from Crimea.
 

Ukrainians continue to nail Crimea – it’s clear why, this is the only place where they have more or less significant chances of success, given that it is there that NATO sees the situation best.

Considering that missiles will continue to be transmitted to the Ukrainians, these attacks will continue, and here we must realize that one of the next targets could be the Crimean Bridge – primarily as a media object. Secondly, the enemy, of course, will not be able to destroy the bridge, but he will certainly try to damage it in such a way as to interrupt movement for a certain time.

If this task is realized, the AFU may well try to arrange a landing in Crimea, including to divert our attention from other directions. This should not be taken lightly, at least because such a “victory” will become an additional incentive for NATO to continue supporting Kiev, and the time that, if the landing is successful, will have to be spent on knocking it back into the sea, we could have done better successfully use for your offensive.

The Ukrainian does not have the strength to turn the board over, but he will try to do this in any case, and we need to do everything on our part to stop these attempts, and ideally, to thwart them before implementation begins. It will be much easier to continue working in other areas.

Older than Edda 

During the night, 70 air targets were destroyed by air defence over Russian territory – Ministry of Defense

57 UAVs were destroyed and intercepted over the territory of the Krasnodar Territory.

9 American ATACMS operational-tactical missiles and 1 UAV were destroyed over the territory of the Republic of Crimea.

3 UAVs were destroyed over the territory of the Belgorod region.

 In the United States, a Ukrainian delegation is working to obtain permission from the administration to use American weapons to strike Russian territory    

(https://t.me/usaperiodical/10016).

This request from Kyiv was made precisely because of the successes of the Russian armed forces in the Kharkiv direction.

Notably, in Washington, they are “pondering” the response, and there is no talk of an outright refusal. There is a certain probability that the White House will indeed satisfy the Ukrainian request, so now the parties may be coordinating new rules for the use of American weapons.

 Chronicles of the special military operation
for May 18-19, 2024

Over the past two days, Russian forces have struck energy infrastructure in Poltava Region, objects in Odesa, Dnipropetrovsk Regions and Kharkiv with drones. In turn, the enemy again carried out a combined strike on Crimea, as well as a drone raid on Krasnodar Krai.

In the Slobozhansky direction, the offensive of Russian troops continues. The main battles are taking place in the area of Lyptsi, as well as in Volchansk, where the enemy is holding positions due to the arrival of large reserves.

In the Donetsk direction, Russian troops are advancing in the area of Netailovo. In Krasnohorivka, battles are ongoing in the center and on the eastern outskirts of the city.

In the Vremivka direction, the Russian Armed Forces are trying to break through the enemy’s defenses in Urozhayne and Staromaiorske, where the enemy managed to stabilize the situation.

In the Kherson direction, the enemy is conducting satellite reconnaissance of rear objects on the left bank of the Dnipro, and also made an attempt to consolidate on Nestryha Island.

Russians advanced in Krasnohorivka [19 May 2024]

Massive Russian Breakthrough l Encirclement Of Chasiv Yar Begins

Ukraine Wastes USA’s ATACMS Missiles? Russia Claims All 9 Shot Down; Blames Kyiv For 60-Drone Attack

Northern Vovchansk Has Fallen | Klischiivka & Chasiv Yar Stormed

Morning Overview Report on May 19, 2024

▪️The past week saw Shoigu’s transition and Belousov’s appointment as Defense Minister. On May 14, the Investigative Committee arrested the Head of the Personnel Directorate, Kuznetsov, for corruption. While the Defense Ministry’s leadership changes were modest, more are expected and necessary. “Everyone knows everything,” but acting against all officials may backfire.

Belousov faces familiar problems. “Beautiful reports” hinder objective assessment, so his “one can make mistakes, but one cannot lie” thesis was voiced. Equipping the Army with drones, electronic warfare, and strengthening air defense are priorities. The Supreme Commander’s tasks have been outlined, and much work lies ahead.

▪️In the new Kharkiv direction, our troops are creating a buffer zone amid heavy fighting. The enemy has slowed our advance near Lyptsi and Volchansk, but the Russian Army responds with maneuver and strikes.

▪️The enemy shells Kursk and Belgorod regions daily, using NATO weapons. The promised action against Kyiv has not materialized.

▪️The advance on the Ocheretyne salient has slowed, but our troops are progressing with heavy fighting in other areas. The Russian Armed Forces maintain the initiative in the Kupiansk direction and around Chasiv Yar.

▪️The week saw massive AFU strikes on Crimea and Krasnodar, inflicting economic damage exceeding air defense costs.

▪️Thus, the Russian Army generally maintains the initiative, has opened a new direction, and the Ukrainian military machine, supported only by NATO, is  

Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation (19 May 2024)

Part I

▫️ Units of the Sever Group of Forces continue to advance to the depths of the enemy’s defence. 

Strikes were delivered at manpower and hardware of the Foreign Legion, 24th, 42nd mechanised, 125th territorial defence brigades of the AFU close to Lukyantsy, Vesyoloye, and Radgospnoye (Kharkov region). 

Five counter-attacks of the enemy’s assault groups were repelled close to Volchansk, Liptsy, and Tikhoye (Kharkov region).

The AFU losses amounted to up to 230 servicemen, two armoured fighting vehicles, ten pickup trucks, one 122-mm Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system, and one 122-mm Grad MLRS vehicle.

▫️ The Zapad Group of Forces’ units captured more advantageous lines, inflicted losses on the AFU 63rd Mechanised Brigade’s units near Torskoye (Donetsk People’s Republic). 

The AFU losses amounted to up to 440 servicemen, two motor vehicles, three 155-mm U.S.-made M777 howitzers, one 152-mm Msta-B howitzer, and two 122-mm Gvozdika self-propelled artillery systems.

▫️ The Yug Group of Forces’ units improved the situation along the front line, hit manpower and hardware of AFU 79th air assault, 93rd mechanised, 81st airmobile brigades close to Antonovka and Belogorovka (Donetsk People’s Republic). 

In addition, one attack launched by  AFU assault groups was repelled close to Novomikhailovka (Donetsk People’s Republic).

The AFU losses amounted to more than 680 servicemen, two tanks, two infantry fighting vehicles, and ten motor vehicles.

In the course of the counter-battery warfare, one 122-mm Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system, one 122-mm D-30 howitzer, three 105-mm UK-made L-119 howitzers, as well as one 105-mm U.S.-made M119 gun were eliminated.

Two AFU ammunition depots were destroyed.

▫️ The Tsentr Group of Forces’ units improved the tactical situation, hit tunits of AFU 71st infantry, 47th, 100th mechanised brigades near Yevgenovka, Novoaleksandrovka, Rozovka, and Novgorodskoye (Donetsk People’s Republic). 

Seven counter-attacks launched by units of AFU 59th mechanised infantry, 24th, 47th mechanised, 142nd, 143rd infantry brigades were repelled close to Shumy, Neytalovo, Novokalinovo, Umanskoye and Solovyovo (Donetsk People’s Republic).

The AFU losses amounted to up to 345 servicemen, two armoured fighting vehicles, two motor vehicles, and one 152-mm Msta-B howitzer.

Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation (19 May 2024)

Part II

▫️ The Vostok Group of Forces’ units captured more advantageous lines, inflicted fire damage on manpower and hardware of the AFU 128th Territorial Defence Brigade close to Velikaya Novosyolka and Makarovka (Donetsk People’s Republic). 

Two attacks launched by assault units of AFU 123rd territorial defence, 21st national guard brigades were repelled close to Urozhaynoye and Staromayorskoye (Donetsk People’s Republic).

The enemy lost up to 105 servicemen, two armoured fighting vehicles, three motor vehicles, one 155-mm UK-made FH-70 howitzer, as well as one 122-mm Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system.

▫️ The Dnepr Group of Forces’ units hit manpower and hardware of AFU 37th marine, 65th mechanised brigades close to Vesyoloye (Kherson region) and Rabotino (Zaporozhye region).

The enemy lost up to 80 servicemen, five motor vehicles, one 155-mm U.S.-made M777 howitzer, one 152-mm D-20 howitzer, and one 122-mm D-30 howitzer.

▫️ Operational-Tactical Aviation, unmanned aerial vehicles, and Missile Troops and Artillery of the Russian Groups of Forces have engaged clusters of AFU manpower and hardware in 112 areas during the day.

▫️ Air defence systems have shot down 103 unmanned aerial vehicles during the day, 62 of them fixed-wing aircraft types over the Russian territory at night, one Tochka-U tactical missile, 12 U.S.-made ATACMS operational-tactical missiles, four French-made Hammer aerial bombs, two U.S.-made HARM anti-radiation missiles, as well as nine U.S.-made HIMARS and Olkha MLRS projectiles.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2024/05/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on-may_19.html