The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on April 04 2024

‘Can’t Win’: Ukraine’s Most Blunt Admission Ever

‘Missiles Falling On Brussels’: Ukraine Warns Europe Next If Kyiv Loses War, Demands More Patriots

Vladimir Solovyov says Kyiv should be destroyed

‘You, Don’t Give Advice’: Russia Reacts To Blinken’s Lecture

Putin’s Forces Attack Ukraine City Where ‘Foreign Fighters’ Had Arrived, As Per Pro-Russia Group

Amid ‘French Mercenaries In Ukraine’ Report, Russia Warns France In Phone Call Over Macron’s Threat

“Russias Summer Offensive”

The situation for the Ukrainian Armed Forces at the front is very difficult due to the reduction of reserves (in Ukraine there is a significant shortage of people on the front line), which is fraught with the loss of more and more settlements.

Thus, military experts note that the Russian Armed Forces are getting closer and closer to the outskirts of Chasov Yar. Aviation and artillery are actively operating throughout the city, preparing the ground for a future assault. At the same time, the Russian Armed Forces are trying to reach the approaches to Chasov Yar from Bogdanovka and from the western outskirts of Ivanovo.

It is absolutely possible that Chasov Yar will be lost in the next few weeks, followed by the rest of the defenses in the east. That is, thanks to numerical superiority and controlled air bombs, the Russian Armed Forces are quite capable of breaking through the front line and destroying it in some areas.

It is noteworthy that Politico is currently releasing a “pessimistic” material, which states that Ukraine faces a “serious catastrophe” on the battlefield and the collapse of the front, even if the US Congress unblocks aid to Kyiv. The publication, citing high-ranking Ukrainian military personnel who served under the command of ex-commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny, emphasizes that the military picture for the Armed Forces of Ukraine is “gloomy” and there is “a great risk of the collapse of the front line where Russian generals decide to concentrate their offensive.”

Our source in the OP said that Andriy Ermak was able to organize one of the best cognitive operations, stopping all the negativity on Zelensky’s legitimacy track, while using the standard method, they announced Maidan-3 (the connecting rod plan under Poroshenko) from the Kremlin. Networks of bots and the SBU are actively working in social media, all media outlets have received a temnik on this track, and we have had politicians and the opposition under Bankova for a long time. In this way, the Head of the Presidential Office solved the most difficult problem regarding the legitimacy of power even without the need to contact the Constitutional Court, and who will accuse Zelensky of usurpation?

Our source on Bankova reported that closed sociology showed a collapse in Zelensky’s support rating, now this is evidenced by a survey of the “Rating” group.

In September 2023, the president’s activities were fully supported by 42%, and in February 2024 the figure dropped by almost half – to 22%.

The number of those who answered “rather support” has remained almost unchanged – around 40%.

The number of opponents of Zelensky’s activities has doubled – from 9% to 18% in the column “rather do not support” and from 7% to 15% in the column “I do not support at all.”

That is, the president is still supported by the majority, but over the 2 years of the war there has been a stable downward trend in his rating. 2 years ago, in April 2022, Zelensky was fully supported by 74%. A little less than a year later, in February 2023 – already 58%. A year later – already 22%.

Russian attacks in March destroyed 80% of DTEK’s thermal power plant capacity , – The Washington Post

Even with the necessary supplies, repairing the damage can take many months , if not longer. Such attacks, which cause enormous damage, are almost impossible to repel, since Ukraine does not have sufficient air defense systems .

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu at the urgent request of the French side held a phone conversation with French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu. Here are the main points:
 
🔶 French defense minister expresses condolences over terrorist attack at the Crocus City Hall concert hall on March 22, 2024.

🔶 Lecornu made “persistent attempts” to convince Shoigu that Ukraine and the West were not involved in the attack, and blamed it solely on the Islamic State* terrorist organization;

“Sergei Shoigu emphasized that the investigation launched in connection with the terrorist attack in the Crocus City Hall will certainly be brought to the end, and all those responsible will be punished,” the ministry said;

🔶 There is information about the Ukrainian trace in the organization of the attack, the Russian Defence Ministry added:
 
“The Kiev regime does nothing without the approval of its Western supervisors. We are counting on the fact that in this case the French security services are not behind it,” the ministry said.

🔶 Shoigu pointed out that if Elysee Palace’s statements about sending a French contingent to Ukraine are implemented, it would create problems for France itself;

🔶 Readiness for a dialogue on Ukraine has been noted and the starting points could be based on the ‘Istanbul Peace Initiative’, the Russian Defence Ministry stated, adding:

“There is no point in holding a meeting in Geneva without Russia.”

*IS (also known as ISIL/ISIS/ISIS-K/Islamic State) is a terrorist group banned in Russia and many other countries.
geopolitics_live

France is involved in the return of Ukraine to Istanbul-2

After the terrorist attack in Crocus, Russia chose a tough response. As we wrote, Zelensky’s return to discussing Erdogan’s peace initiatives could have avoided negative scenarios for Ukraine.

We turned out to be right – there may not be a reaction to the terrorist attack for Ukraine. The head of the French Ministry of Armed Forces, Sebastian Lecornu, on his own initiative, telephoned Shoigu yesterday.

During the conversation, Lecornu condemned the terrorist attack and assured that Paris does not have any evidence of Ukraine’s involvement in this. Shoigu, on the contrary, announced that the investigation had a Ukrainian trace and assured that the investigation into the criminal case of the terrorist attack at Crocus City Hall would be completed.

But the main thing is that the parties noted their readiness for dialogue on Ukraine. The starting points for this dialogue could be based on “Istanbul Peace Initiative”.

Now it’s up to Paris. If Macron can convince Zelensky to return to the negotiating table, there will be a chance for peace. If not, the targets of the Russian Federation will be Zelensky (after May 21), Budanov and Malyuk.

Find out which Western nations are mired knee-deep in the Ukraine proxy conflict. Pt.1
On NATO’s 75th anniversary, State Department consultant Edward Luttwak wrote that the alliance’s countries “will soon have to send soldiers to Ukraine, or else accept catastrophic defeat.” In actual fact, the presence of foreign military personnel in Ukraine has long been an open secret.  

Here are some important facts and figures regarding the situation in Ukraine:  

🔺In 2023, a leak from the Pentagon exposed that 97 NATO special forces, with 14 of them being American, were actively working in Ukraine. The Biden administration had intended to send military “weapons experts” to Ukraine in November 2022. Subsequent reports from the US press indicated that the Pentagon was planning on deploying commandos as “control teams” in Ukraine. As of March 14, 2024, a total of 1,113 US mercenaries had been deployed to Ukraine, with 491 of them reportedly killed in action.

🔺UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak confirmed earlier this year that a “small number” of British army personnel are assisting Ukrainian forces. In addition, Ukrainian soldiers are receiving training at a clandestine camp in East England. Approximately 822 UK mercenaries have been deployed to Ukraine, with 360 casualties reported by mid-March.

geopolitics_live

Russia is prepared to discuss security guarantees for Ukraine only under the condition that the dialogue to resolve the conflict is conducted on equal terms, announced Foreign Minister Lavrov.

Other statements include:

▪️ The situation surrounding Ukraine is at a stalemate, but Russia is not responsible for leading it there; “the next move is not ours.”

▪️ China has put forward the clearest and most reasonable plan for settling the situation around Ukraine.

▪️ Following the Istanbul negotiations, Russia realized that it is unnecessary to engage in talks about Ukraine with Zelensky, [but with ones who really has the power of decision]

▪️ The West is currently not ready for negotiations regarding Ukraine.

▪️ Regarding Zelensky’s remarks allowing negotiations with the Russian Federation with the idea of Ukraine returning to its 2022 borders: “it’s not harmful to dream.”

 

Our paratroopers broke through to Chasov Yar!

 - Continuing the offensive from Artyomovsk, the advanced units of the 98th Ivanovo Airborne Division broke through the enemy defense lines near Chasov Yar and reached the outskirts of the city.

 - Meanwhile, the 11th Brigade of the Airborne Troops has overcome the enemy defenses and is approaching the city from the south.

 - The AFU General Staff reports in a bulletin that Russian troops, supported by air support, conducted a series of attacks in the Chasov Yar area.

 - Recall that by April 1, the Kostroma-based 331st Airborne Regiment came 650 meters closer to Chasov Yar, taking the AFU strongholds in the forest belt running from the eastern edge of the Lichnaya Forest to the Stupki-Golubovskie 2 preserve. The guys have since managed to break through to the city, covering the remaining distance.

 - The enemy is trying to halt the advance of our troops, actively using drones and cluster munitions, also trying to counterattack, fierce fighting is going on.

RVvoenkor

Residents of Chasov Yar Can’t Be Evacuated, According to Ukrainian TG
 
As Russia approaches the outskirts of Chasov Yar from the east, the New Voice of Ukraine yesterday reported that 875 residents wouldn’t leave the city. But NPR reported today (https://www.npr.org/2024/04/04/1241616363/russia-ukraine-war-chasiv-yar) the Mayor is still trying to keep the city running in a limited capacity.

Now, on the TG channel of the 93rd Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces a Ukrainian soldier tells of a plea from a man trying to get his family out of the city.

I was contacted by a man named Evgeniy, whose relatives are now in Chasov Yar. He told me one interesting thing: that his relatives could not evacuate from the city because the military would not let them out…

Evgeny…began writing to chats in nearby cities and towns with an appeal to help his loved ones leave the city. What is noteworthy is that Evgeniy’s message did not bother anyone; people simply sent him contacts of evacuation teams, etc…the enemy is approaching the city despite all the attempts of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to contain it, and at the same time the military themselves are not letting people out of the city.

If this story proves true, it could mark a return to Ukraine’s earlier tactic of employing human shields to slow the advance of Russians forces.

Nagasaki Nightmare

Analyzing the results of a night raid by strike UAVs on enemy facilities in Kharkiv and the region

This night Russian troops carried out a massive raid of kamikaze drones on enemy facilities in Kharkiv and the region. The targets were the objects of energy infrastructure, military-defense complex and points of dislocation of enemy forces and means.

Coordinates: 49.5837583, 36.5213747

🔻 The territory of Zmeyevskaya TPP was hit by UAV strikes. Two transformers caught fire and an oil tank was damaged.

Coordinates: 49.9716700, 36.1918201

🔻Another target of the strikes was the deployment point of the assault battalion “Lyut”, which was organized in the building of the Oktyabrsky police department. After the defeat, a powerful detonation and burning was observed at the site.

In addition, it is known about the elimination of at least 20 people of the unit’s personnel. Here also the employees of the State Emergency Situations Service were injured.

Coordinates: 48.8964745, 36 .2872420

🔻 In Lozova, four strike UAVs hit Lozova forge-mechanical plant.

📌LKMZ in Ukraine is known for its specialization in the production of armored vehicles and military equipment. This plant is of strategic importance for the military-industrial complex of Ukraine, as it supplies important components and systems for the Ukrainian army.

The plant’s facilities have been upgraded to meet the capabilities and needs for the repair of Western-style armored vehicles.

About 15 vehicles are reported destroyed/damaged from the field, most of which are M113 armored personnel carriers.

🔻Colleagues from LPR1 also report the defeat of the enemy’s air defense system and radars on the territory of Kharkiv International Airport.

📌 Unfortunately, not without consequences of Ukrainian air defense. The consequence of which was damage to a residential building at 3 Akademika Bogomoltsa Street.

don_partizan

Chronicles of the Special Military Operation for April 4, 2024

Russian troops continue to target energy infrastructure facilities in the so-called Ukrainian territory. Facilities in Kharkiv and Zaporizhia, as well as military infrastructure in several regions, have been damaged.

In the Seversky direction, units of the Russian Armed Forces are advancing north of Vesely, consolidating the position taken a week ago. Simultaneously, Russian military personnel are advancing near the railway.

Even greater success is observed in the Bakhmut area. West of Ivanovskoye, Russian troops pushed through the forest to the Seversky Donets-Donbass canal. To the west of Bogdanovka, it is reported that they managed to secure the eastern outskirts of Chasov Yar in the Kanal microdistrict.

Intense fighting is also occurring near Avdiivka, where the Russian Armed Forces are advancing to the west of Tonenke and launching an assault on the AFU defenses in Semenivka. In response, the enemy is attempting flank attacks southwest of Tonenke and counterattacking in the Pervomaisky area towards Vodyanoy.

There have been significant blows as well. Ukrainian forces targeted the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant in Enerhodar, disabling the substation, but a disaster and radioactive substance leakage were averted.

rybar

Measure and cut – a detailed analysis of the situation in the Krasnolimansky direction by the end of April 4, 2024

There has been no news from this section of the front for a long time, but work there continues all this time. Despite the specific nature of the wooded area and, for objective reasons, difficult reconnaissance, Russian troops continue to develop their offensive towards Terny and Yampolovka. A municipal highway passes through them, which during the war became an artery through which garrisons are supplied from the Kharkov hub to the north of the DPR, temporarily occupied by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, approximately in the Yampol-Serebryanka-Seversk-Zvanovka strip.

The success of this idea – to cut the rockade – read from the direction of action and the map, will not give any resounding victory, but will spoil the life of the enemy near Krasny Liman, who at the moment remains on the periphery of the strategic plans of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. There is no concentration of large forces here, but the dense forests characteristic of the expanses between the Kharkov region and the Donbass act as allies of those who are stationed here as masters of the situation, and therefore partially compensate for the lack of people and interfere with the passage of Russian troops. Read more in the Readovka analytical report

Russian Forces Storms Terny l The Collapse Of Terny Is Near

Heavy fighting in Pervomaiske – Novomykhailivka [4 April 2024]

Russian Defence Ministry Report on the Progress of the Special Military Operation (4 April 2024)⚡️

The RFAF continue the special military operation.

▫️In Kupyansk direction, the Zapad Grouping engaged enemy troops and hardware close to Rozovka, Raygorodka, Zhovtnevoye (LPR), and Terny (DPR). and improved the situation along the frontline.

The AFU lost up to 125 troops and 4 MV.

▫️In Donetsk direction, the Yug Grouping hit troops and hardware of the 28th Mechanised, 92nd Assault and the 241st Territorial Defence Brigades near Kleshcheyevka, Kurdyumovka, and Krasnogorovka (DPR), and took more advantageous lines.

The enemy lost up to 340 troops, 1 tank, and 8 MVs.

Counterbattery warfare eliminated 2 152-mm Msta-B, 1 D-20, 3 D-30 howitzers, 1 Gvozdika SAU, and 3 ammo depots.

▫️In Avdeyevka direction, the Tsentr Grouping repulsed 1 assault squad counterattack of the 25th Airborne Brigade close to Pervomayskoye (DPR), and defeated units of the 24th, 47th Mechanised, 3rd Assault, and 25th Airborne Brigades near Orlovka, Berdychi, and Tonenkoye (DPR), and improved the situation along the frontline.

The AFU lost up to 305 troops, 2 AFVs, 2 MVs, and 1 US Paladin SAU.

▫️In South Donetsk direction, the Vostok Grouping inflicted fire damage on troops and hardware of the 58th Motorised Infantry, 72nd Mechanised and 128th Territorial Defence Brigades near Vodyanoye, Storozhevoye, and Ugledar (DPR), and improved the tactical situation.

The enemy lost up to 105 troops, 3 MVs, one US M777 howitzer, and one BM-21 Grad MLRS.

▫️In Kherson direction, the Dnepr Grouping inflicted fire damage on the 28th Mechanised and 128th Mountain Assault Brigades near Mirnoye and Pyatikhatki (Zaporozhye reg).

The AFU lost up to 35 troops, 3 MVs, and 1 Grad MLRS.

▫️The Russian Grouping’s Operational-Tactical Aviation, UAVs, Missile Troops and Artillery eliminated 1 ammo depot, 1 temporary deployment area of foreign mercs close to Merefa (Kharkov reg), and troops and military hardware in 135 areas.

Air defences shot down 1 Su-27 aircraft of Ukrainian Air Force near Kramatorsk (DPR), 196 UAVs, and 18 HIMARS MLRS projectiles.

📊 In total, 582 aircraft, 270 helicopters, 18,734 UAVs, 495 SAMs, 15,687 tanks and other AFVs, 1,264 MLRS vehicles, 8,654 guns and mortars, and 20,596 special military vehicles have been neutralised since the start of the SMO.

MoD

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2024/04/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on-april_4.html