The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on April 03 2024

Complete Collapse Of Ukrainian Defense Line l Russia Made Huge Advances

Ukrainian Defensive Collapse Imminent | RUAF Capture Significant Heights

‘Russian offensive’ looming: Ukraine appeals to West, NATO for ‘more & more weapons to push back’

NATO ministers discuss 100 billion euro military fund for Ukraine

Cruel month of March for Ukraine. Robots enter war

“3,000 Guided Bombs Fired At Ukraine In March”, New Russian Soldiers Want to “Avenge Moscow Attack”

The front line is about to collapse under the onslaught of Russia

Ukraine faces a great risk that its front line could collapse wherever Russia decides to concentrate its offensive, Politico writes, citing Ukrainian senior officers.

With a much larger troop presence and controlled air bombs that have been devastating Ukrainian positions for weeks, Russia will likely be able to “penetrate the front line and destroy it in some areas,” the military said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

“Now nothing can help Ukraine, since there are no serious technologies that can compensate Ukraine for the large mass of troops that Russia will most likely throw at us. We don’t have that kind of technology, and the West doesn’t have enough of it either,” one senior military source told Politico.

There’s a big risk of the front line collapsing in Ukraine – POLITICO

 - Officers said there is a great risk of the front line collapsing wherever Russian generals decide to focus their offensive. Moreover, thanks to the much larger numerical advantage and guided aerial bombs that have been wrecking Ukrainian positions for weeks now, Russia will likely be able to “break through the front line and collapse it in some parts.

 - The longer the war goes on, the more territory Russia will gain until they reach the Dneper River. However, if the war lasts long enough, Odessa will fall too.

 - Russia is calculating where best to place its S-400 missile and radar systems to maximize the area they can cover to defeat F-16s, keeping them away from the front lines and Russian logistical hubs.

The Russians continue to track down the locations of Ukrainian Armed Forces equipment and destroy them.
Here is another example of how the Russian Armed Forces destroyed a storage facility for anti-aircraft mobile groups in Kharkov .
This problem is that in Ukraine there is a shortage of air defense/missile defense, as well as the Russians’ strengthening in the development of UAVs and missiles, which have become more numerous and much more accurate.
Ukraine will constantly need weapons, as the loss of weapons in the rear has increased.

The situation at the front is complicated by a low level of morale, which leads to an increase in cases of surrender at the “zero”.
The soldiers do not want to fight to the end, but prefer to immediately surrender before the pressure of the Russian Armed Forces.
They are silent about this now in Kyiv, but the situation will soon become critical, which will lead to the collapse of the defense.

As the source adds, this is the result of unlimited mobilization, when Ukrainians are forced to fight “at gunpoint.”

Zaluzhny strikes back

Mysterious “high-ranking Ukrainian military personnel who served under Zaluzhny” told Politico that the Ukrainian Armed Forces were doing poorly:

- Ukraine faces a “serious catastrophe” on the battlefield and the collapse of the front, even if the US Congress unblocks aid to Kyiv;

- “the military picture is gloomy”, there is “a great risk of the collapse of the front line where Russian generals decide to concentrate their offensive”;

- thanks to numerical superiority and controlled aerial bombs, the Russian Federation will probably be able to “break through the front line and destroy it in some areas”;

- a new major Russian offensive is expected before August;

- “There is nothing that could help Ukraine now, because there are no serious technologies capable of stopping the large mass of troops that Russia is likely to throw at us. We do not have these technologies, and the West does not have them in sufficient quantities”;

- exactly what the ex-commander-in-chief predicted happened. “Zaluzhny called it a ‘war of one chance’. By this he meant that weapons systems very quickly become unnecessary because the Russians quickly counter them. For example, we successfully used Storm Shadow and SCALP cruise missiles, but only for a short time. Russians are always learning. They don’t give us a second chance. And they succeed at it”;

- Each weapon has its time. F-16s were needed in 2023, but they will not be suitable for 2024, since the Russian Federation is already ready to counter them;

- “Don’t believe the hype that they are simply throwing troops into a meat grinder for slaughter. Of course, they do this too – further maximizing the impact of their numerical superiority, but they are also learning and improving”;

- Ukraine is significantly short of people on the front line, and this aggravates the problem of insufficient support from the West;

- “we not only have a military crisis, we have a political crisis” (in the context of difficulties with mobilization.

According to our information, Zaluzhny himself is behind the “military who fought with the ex-commander-in-chief.” After waiting almost 2 months from the moment of resignation, he resumed his criticism of Zelensky’s actions. Please note that the complaints are the same as in the post:
- mobilization is needed;

-need more weapons;

- supplies are needed much faster than now;

- the delay by partners in assistance is due to Zelensky’s inability to adopt a new law on mobilization;

- political motives interfere with the country’s military actions!

Our neighbors are actively preparing, while the Poles are blocking the borders of Ukraine in Bucharest and want to pass an interesting law.
Romania is preparing a new defense law, according to which it will be possible to send troops into the territory of other countries to “protect Romanian citizens” in response to “hybrid threats.”

The intervention will involve: the mobilization of the police and the creation of a “National Military Command Center” that will unite all security forces, local media report.

This will only require a decision by the Romanian president and the approval of the Supreme National Defense Council. The Romanian Ministry of Defense is preparing a bill, proposing to submit it for discussion.

First there was Johnson, then Biden, and now it’s Macron’s time to be the main actor in military assistance to Ukraine, and the French President is ready to send his military publicly, and not secretly as instructors or PMCs.

In February, the French President called on Scholz and Biden to change the strategy for the war in Ukraine, taking a position of “strategic uncertainty” in relation to the Russian Federation.

This implies the Russian Federation’s conviction that the West is ready for all response options, including military ones, and not constantly voicing its “red lines” beyond which the allies will not go.

Biden and Scholz refused, fearing escalation and drawing the West into the conflict.

The conversation took place before the summit in Paris, following which Macron for the first time announced the possibility of sending troops. The leaders of the United States and Germany warned that they would reject Macron’s position on military intervention options, and did so.

The allies feared that a strike on French troops in Ukraine would drag the United States and NATO into the war. Macron replied that their intervention would not be required in this case. The experience of France in Africa was mentioned, where it suffered losses without turning to its allies for help.
 

while financing us on credit and even selling the equipment to be written off. The scheme is ideal, otherwise who cares about the hundreds of thousands of dead and millions of dispossessed.

ZeRada1

The main problem with air defense is that there is no ammunition for it, which is why now we shoot down less than 50% of air targets.

In March, the Russian Federation fired 400 missiles, more than 600 Shaheds and 3 thousand guided bombs into Ukraine, Zelensky said.

If we calculate the price of missiles for Western air defenses, then we need to spend almost two billion dollars a month on ammunition, and we simply don’t have that kind of money.

The British edition of The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/03/ukraine-eyes-kerch-bridge-crimea-drone-attack) has revisited the topic of attacks on the Crimean bridge. An article titled “No choice,” which justifies the future actions of the AFU, was published a few hours ago.

📌There was nothing radically new from British journalists. It has been clear from the moment the Ukrainian authorities acquired long-range weapons that they would target not just a logistics artery, but a symbolic object.

Interestingly, it is the British who are the main instigators of attacks on the Crimean Bridge with the aim of its complete destruction. They are pushing the GUR to implement this plan, primarily for the political damage it would cause to Russia.

The exact method through which Ukrainian forces will tackle this issue remains unclear. Both British journalists and German senior officials expressed skepticism about this in a recently intercepted conversation (https://t.me/rybar/58359).

❗️Whether through unmanned boats, drones, cruise or ballistic missiles, or another attempt at a terrorist attack, it is crucial to understand that the AFU will seek to inflict maximum damage, and we must be prepared for this.

The capabilities of the AFU, which receive full technological support from the West, have significantly increased. Underestimating them could lead to “painful lessons” that can be avoided.
rybar

A discussion has arisen as to whether it is not time to recognize the so-called former Ukraine as a terrorist State at the international level.
The discussion is quite scholastic. Why?

1. In fact Ukraine is already a terrorist state, which kills its own and (!) other people’s citizens freely, without consequences. Killing in cities and trenches, killing even in prisons. This is obvious even to nasty fish-faced British broads and marasmatics in big stability sneakers on the White House lawn.

2. If there is sufficient evidence that scum like Azov, Budanov or Zelensky were behind the terrorist attack, they certainly won’t be tried in some stinking ICJ. They don’t judge their own. So, they will discuss on the pages of the Internet carpet impotents in New York and other galactic garbage from dying newspapers. It is unrealistic to break through such a decision in the UN because of the Russophobic consensus and the Anglo-Saxon veto in the Security Council.

3. What to do? Just crush the Bandera pigs, as it was valiantly done by the USSR MGB after the war. And the leaders – to liquidate at a convenient opportunity. Like Konovalets and Bandera. In Kiev or some other suitable place.
 

Dmitriy Medvedev

Ukrainian Deputy Calls for Terror Attack on Concert in Melitopol

This morning Alexsiy Goncharenko, Deputy of Ukraine, called for the military to conduct a terrorist operation to assassinate Russian musician, Shaman. Shaman is set for a concert date on 15 April in Melitopol in honor of those who died in the terrorist attack on Crocus City Hall. Goncharenko asked to the Armed Forces to “pay attention.”

In the days following the terrorist attack in Moscow, Shaman released a song in tribute of the victims. The initial plan of the terrorists was to attack during his concert earlier last month.

Nagasaki Nightmare

Strike on enemy deployment points on temporarily occupied DNR territory

Last night, Russian troops struck at the Ukrainian formations in Mykolayivka and Selidovo (DNR).

Coordinates: 48.8515276, 37.7733789

🔻At about 22:00, the temporary deployment point of Ukrainian border guards located in the hotel “Zorya” at the address: Mykolaivka, 108, Evropeyskaya Street was hit.

As a result of the strike, about 12 personnel were killed and at least 10 were wounded of varying degrees of severity. Also vehicles located in the parking lot of the hotel were significantly damaged.

According to separate information, it is reported that the hotel “Zorya” was used by the DPSU intelligence unit as a deployment point for about a month.

Coordinates: 48.1527727, 37.3283079

🔻At around midnight, another ballistic missile strike hit the enemy’s deployment point in Selidovo.

The enemy organized the deployment of personnel and heavy armored vehicles on the territory of the Selidovo Central Processing Plant. The exact number of destroyed and wounded enemy forces is unknown, but based on the activity of ambulances that traveled in the direction of Pokrovsk-Dnepropetrovsk at midnight we can judge about the effective defeat.

📌The intensity of strikes on enemy points in cities close to the LBS is increasing exponentially. It is increasingly difficult for the enemy to deploy personnel, rotate and regroup their forces and assets.

don_partizan

Why Chasov Yar is the key to liberating the Donetsk People’s Republic
 
“The one who controls Chasov Yar receives a very serious advantage in the entire surrounding area,” Sergey Poletaev, a political and military analyst, told Sputnik. “It is a defense hub [for the Ukrainian military]. Whoever controls it actually controls everything – the entire defense in the northern part of the Donetsk People’s Republic.”
 
Chasov Yar is located on a hill seven kilometers west of Artemovsk (also known as Bakhmut) which was liberated by Russia in May 2023. The city’s geographical position makes it important from a strategic standpoint, as it overlooks the surrounding area for many miles.
 
The Russian military is now less than a mile from the city, adviser to the head of the DPR Igor Kimakovsky told Sputnik on April 2. As the Russian forces are getting closer to Chasov Yar, taking the main roads running into the city under their control, the importance of the settlement as a Ukrainian military hub is fading, according to Kimakovsky.
 
Presently, the so-called Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration – an elongated, almost continuous line of cities – remains under the control of Ukraine, Poletaev noted. This chain of cities has been Ukraine’s main defense line in Donbass since 2014.
 
“Accordingly, in order to liberate Donbass, we need to take it,” the military analyst said. “This is a very serious operation. With the exception of the February 2022 op, we have not yet carried out strategic operations of that scale. Thus, it is necessary to create conditions for accomplishing this task. One of these conditions will be the liberation of Chasov Yar.”

geopolitics

 

Russian army advances, conducting a maneuver to pincer Novomikhailovka

 - On the South Donetsk direction, Russian troops are attacking in the fields south of the settlement and in the dachas to the north. Conducting operations to encircle Novomikhailovka, which is important for the flank of the Ukrainian armed forces’ flank. Enemy military analysts also write about it:

 - “The Russians have occupied part of the trenches to the southeast of Novomikhailovka.

 - Probably, they are trying to advance to Konstantinovka, simultaneously surrounding Novomikhailovka from the south”.

 - To the north of Novomikhailovka, the Russian Armed Forces with armored vehicles are attacking near the Mashinostroitel country house settlement.

 - The village itself is almost half under the control of Russian troops.

RVvoenkor

 

Vuhledar direction: Battles for the dacha village “Mashinostroitel” in Novomikhailovka
Situation as of 8:00, April 3, 2024

Russian troops are continuing their assault on Novomikhailovka from multiple directions, expanding their control over the territory of the Mashinostroitel gardening partnership.

▪️ Currently, the fighting is focused on the first row of houses. The success here hinges on the progress of Russian troops towards the center of Novomikhailovka along Lenin Street, which will secure the flanks of the attacking units.

▪️ Intense battles are unfolding on the southern approaches to Novomikhailovka. Following several unsuccessful attempts to advance in the vicinity of Timiryazev Street, Russian troops are now moving westward, south of the residential area. The Russian infantry has managed to advance 500 meters towards the entrenched trench that the AFU has been fortifying over the past few months.

🔻Despite claims by Ukrainian forces that Russian units have not established a foothold in this area, the online footage suggests that the Russian Armed Forces’ attack cannot definitively be deemed a failure. Nevertheless, swiftly capturing a line of AFU trenches spanning over a kilometer seems improbable.

rybar

Advance of the Russian Armed Forces west of Tonenke in the Avdiivka direction, fighting on the southern outskirts of Semenovka, and a breakthrough in Berdychi
Situation as of 9:00, April 2, 2024

🔻 West of Tonenke, Russian troops are advancing (https://t.me/rybar/58670) towards the Umanskoye-Netaylovo border: Based on objective control footage, over the past few days, they have advanced up to one and a half kilometers in width and depth without suffering losses.
▪️Russian troops attempted a counterattack with several armored vehicles in the area south of Umansky, but they were met with fire and forced to retreat to their starting point, losing one piece of equipment in the process.

▪️ The situation in Semyonovka has become clearer: Videos indicate that units of the Russian Armed Forces advanced along the Durnaya River and secured positions on the southern outskirts of Tsentralnaya Street. Ownership of the network of trenches on the village’s approaches remains uncertain.

▪️ Following a recent assault on positions in the center of Berdychi, Russian troops advanced two kilometers west along Kazberova Street: It is suspected that Ukrainian forces may have withdrawn part of their troops to Novobakhmutovka. In Solovyevo, located a few kilometers north of Berdychi, an FPV drone struck an M1A1 Abrams tank, marking the fifth hit on this type of equipment.

rybar

Russian Army Captures More Ukrainian Territory After Avdiivka’s Fall | ’400 Sq Km Seized This Year’

[ SITREP ] Russia captured Vodyane (confirmed); now less than 1km from Umanske, Avdiivka Front

Russians continue to advance in Umanske [3 April 2024]

Chronicles of the Special Military Operation for April 3, 2024

The Russian Armed Forces continue to carry out strikes against identified targets in the front-line zone of the Kharkiv region and in the territory of the temporarily occupied part of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR), while the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) have reduced the intensity of shelling the Russian border area.

In the Seversk sector, positional battles are taking place on the approaches to the chalk quarry dump east of Belogorovka, as well as in the area of the filtration station. The enemy is assembling a troop group in the nearby rear, likely in preparation for a defense breach.

In the Bakhmut sector, Russian troops are advancing towards Chasiv Yar from the eastern side, launching a heavy artillery strike on AFU positions in the Kanal microdistrict. There are also engagements in the Stupki-Golubovskie forest zone.

In the Avdiivka sector, clashes were observed along the Semenivka – Berdychiv line, with rocket artillery supporting the Russian Armed Forces. To the west of Tonenke, the Russian Armed Forces are advancing towards Umansky.

In the Zaporizhia sector, the enemy is establishing a second line of defense in the Orekhov area. Russian troops, in turn, are actively and effectively using Lancet missiles, including against Ukrainian tanks.

In the Kherson sector, Ukrainian marines are holding positions in Krynychky. The group is resupplied by air with equipment dropped from drones. Simultaneously, the AFU have deployed over 60 attack drones to the front line.

rybar

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2024/04/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on-april_3.html