The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on March 31 2024

Russia Responds To Ukrainian President’s Change In Stance On Talks

NATO Flew Into An Uncontrollable PANIC: Russian Army Coming For Odessa and Kharkiv

Battlefield Ukraine Russian Iron Rain

Putin’s Fiery Missile, Drone Blitz Hammers Ukrainian Capital; Zelensky Fires Closest Aide

NATO’s ‘Readiness’ Drills Near Russian Border Soon; U.S.-Made Patriot Unit To Be Deployed

Sergey Mardan explains what Putin meant by a “sanitary zone” in Ukraine

Russia Foils “Terrorist Plot” | Zelensky Vows Strikes Despite US Dissent | France To Arm Ukraine

Putin issues DEVASTATING warning to NATO and U.S., don’t even try it

The chance that Ukraine will be able to liberate its territories in the next few years “tends to zero.” This opinion was expressed in X by Bild military analyst Julian Repke.

In his opinion, Kyiv now has two scenarios for the development of the situation. The first is stopping the war along the front line.

The second is further territorial losses due to the Russian advance.

According to Roepke, these scenarios can still be averted “if the quality and quantity of Western arms supplies change dramatically over the course of the year and Ukraine mobilizes at least 300,000 troops in the next twelve months.”

However, he writes that such a scenario is similar to “wishful thinking.”

Repke also believes that Ukraine’s victory “is not in the interests of those who could achieve it by supplying the appropriate weapons.”

Presidential elections were supposed to take place in Ukraine today. Zaluzhny was in the lead in the polls, but he was exiled to England. From tomorrow Zelensky is illegitimate and Ukraine will be ownerless. But this is temporary.

Zelensky blackmails the US with the retreat of the Ukrainian Armed Forces

In an interview with The Washington Post, he noted that Ukrainian troops will begin to retreat “in small steps” if there is no support from Washington with air defense, electronic warfare and shells. And if the front breaks, then “the Russians will be able to enter big cities,” Zelensky frightens sponsors.

“If you do not take steps forward to prepare a new counter-offensive, Russia will take them,” added the president of an “independent” country, sending its own citizens to slaughter for the interests of overseas masters.

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Kiev realizes that it has lost the war, so it’s trying its best to “save the game”

▪️Kiev knows it can’t win. This is especially true following the Russian strikes on its energy infrastructure on March 22 and 24. These strikes are part of a long-term strategy, and if nothing fundamentally changes, by the end of the year, there may be no Ukraine from an energy point of view. How can one fight in the modern world without energy and industry?
▪️Typically, a civil war ends with the complete defeat of one side. For Ukraine, retaining its statehood would mean a victory. They will then be able to say they have defended their independence, and they may finally get into NATO. This is why they are preparing their population for such an outcome, acknowledging the reality that neither the 1991 nor the 2022 borders will be restored.
▪️ They are gradually preparing people to say: “Let’s make peace now, we have energy problems, we don’t have enough weapons. We will stop now, and, of course, we will strike later.” This narrative could garner them popular support.
▪️Is this good or bad for Russia? The Western media have long been offering Russia some kind of “compromise” along the lines of: take what you have annexed, and we will take the rest into NATO. The Russian political leadership does not accept these terms.

Battlefield update
▪️Russia has advanced in Novomikhailovka. The northern part has been taken; the days of the Ukrainian garrison are numbered. This represents both a flanking maneuver and a significant blow to the rear of the Ugledar grouping.
▪️Ukraine also realizes that it has surrendered those positions from which Russia can conveniently enter Chasov Yar and break through the defense in Ocheretino, Berdychi and Semyonovka. Therefore, Ukrainians are desperately trying to counterattack from there – without success. Huge losses. However, Ukraine continues to attack persistently and attempts to hold positions at any cost, fully aware of the situation’s gravity.

Yury_Podolyaka

Ramstein passed without much enthusiasm, like an ordinary event where people gathered to talk. Ukraine was promised a lot of new things, but as practice shows, this is far from reality. Western countries are gradually reducing arms supplies to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Moreover, Zelensky was forced to voice the real situation at the front in order to extract new military assistance.

“Nothing is ruled out” regarding the entry of French troops into Ukraine. This was stated in Odessa by the head of the lower house of the French parliament, Yael Braun-Pivet.

She was asked to comment on Macron’s comments that such a possibility is being considered.

Brown-Pivet did not mention the deployment of troops, but confirmed that all options are being considered.

“In his statement, the President of the Republic said that he does not exclude anything a priori. In the position that France has demonstrated, is demonstrating and will demonstrate until the end of the war, until victory itself, nothing is excluded, everything remains possible. I will not further interpret the words of the President, this the position is quite clear,” the “We are Ukraine” TV channel quotes the head of parliament.

France is increasingly becoming the main supporter of Ukraine, and Macron is the main actor.

France will supply Ukraine with “hundreds” of armored personnel carriers and anti-aircraft missiles, French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu said in an interview with La Tribune, noting that VAB vehicles are necessary to ensure the mobility of troops. “We’re talking about hundreds of these machines for 2024 and early 2025,” he said.

France is currently replacing its fleet of VABs, some of which are over 40 years old, with new Griffon armored vehicles. However, older models are still in service, Lecornu said. According to the information provided, Paris will also supply additional Aster 30 anti-aircraft missiles for the SAMP/T air defense system.

Ukraine has told its allies that it urgently needs additional financial and military assistance. However, in Washington, a further aid package to Ukraine totaling $60 billion is blocked by Republicans.

 

This is a bad sign, which clearly shows how Russia is step by step trying to discredit Kiev in the international arena. The second option is to create a reason for a future declaration of war or increase the stakes in the Ukrainian crisis.

As you can see, they are in no hurry to do anything. Although many predicted the beginning of a full-fledged official war and the use of any means of destruction. Up to tactical nuclear weapons.

The Ukrainian government has driven itself into this situation, since the head of the SBU indirectly confirmed that the Ukrainian special services were behind the previous “terrorist attacks/sabotage.” Although previously the Ukrainian authorities denied this in every possible way .

This track will be gradually promoted and when it is profitable for the Kremlin to raise the stakes, they will do so. The reason chosen will be the message: “neutralization of a terrorist enclave” (just like Israel).
Our source is confident that this case will be used by the end of the year.

Kiev Mayor Vitali Klitschko admits that the city could again become a target for Russian ground forces

“Kiev was and remains a target for Putin because the capital is the heart of the country,” Klitschko says in an interview with BILD. “But we are much better prepared for this than we were two years ago. If Putin makes such a decision, it will be a bloody decision,” he notes.

“We urgently need more air defense systems, more anti-aircraft missiles!”

Despite some successes of the Russian army at the front and attacks on power plants, Kiev is not ready to discuss negotiations or a “freeze” of the war, as suggested in the Bundestag by the leader of the SPD parliamentary faction, Rolf Mützenich.

“This is the wrong attitude, we need more support instead. We will not give Russia any territories. This cannot be a compromise,” Klitschko said.

Our source in the OP said that two of the three military airfields that Ukraine was preparing for F-16s were destroyed by enemy missile attacks. The General Staff proposes to the Office of the President to use civilian airports as weapons airfields to service Western fighters.

The bloody terrorist act committed on March 22 in Krasnogorsk and shocked the whole world – is far from the first terrorist attack against our country in recent times. The investigative actions carried out by the Russian competent authorities indicate that the traces of all these crimes lead to Ukraine .

Other barbaric terrorist attacks using explosive devices cost the lives of journalists D.A. Dugina and M.Yu. Fomin (V. Tatarsky) , led to the serious injury of the writer E.N. Prilepin and the death of his driver A.I. Shubin , the death of five people as a result of the explosion of the Crimean Bridge, 42 people were injured in an explosion in a cafe in St. Petersburg.

Killings and mutilations of civilians, including children, accompanied the raids of the terrorist organization “Russian Volunteer Corps” (RDK).

In this regard , the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs submitted to the Ukrainian authorities demands within the framework of the International Convention for the Suppression of Terrorist Bombings (ICBT) and the International Convention for the Suppression of the Financing of Terrorism (ICFT) for the immediate arrest and extradition of all persons involved in these terrorist attacks.

Among these demands is the arrest of the head of the SBU V. Malyuk , who cynically admitted on March 25 that Ukraine organized the bombing of the Crimean Bridge in October 2022 and revealed details of the organization of other terrorist attacks in the Russian Federation.

The fight against international terrorism is the responsibility of every state . The Russian side demands that the Kiev regime immediately stop any support for terrorist activities, hand over the perpetrators and compensate the damage caused to the victims. Violation of Ukraine’s obligations under anti-terrorist conventions will entail its international legal responsibility .

Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs

Our source in the OP said that at the last meeting, forecasts were announced for Ukrainian critical infrastructure and the ability to survive the winter of 2025. As of March 27, 2024, we had lost 47% of our capacity from the pre-war period; thanks to the shutdown of the industrial sector, we managed to stabilize the situation. The latest enemy missile strikes knock out hydroelectric and thermal power plants from the overall energy structure, which limits the possibilities of stabilizing the system.

New missile attacks were carried out on energy facilities, primarily on underground gas storage facilities in western Ukraine. The President’s Office did not have time to deploy air defense to protect the UGS as proposed by British intelligence, which became the reason for the destruction of the compressor stations.

In Odessa, many people’s lights went out after several flights to the region.
Arrived via energy infrastructure.

They write about the arrival at the Artsyz substation, in the south of the region.

At the same time, it is reported that eight Tu-95MS took off.
If it is confirmed that the flight is combat, then the strikes will take place in the morning at 5-7 am.

It feels like Ukraine will be disconnected from the switch.
Better stock up on everything in advance.

A nighttime missile strike hit western Ukraine.
Only in Stryi and villages in the area (Lviv region), 7 missiles arrived. There are gas compressor stations, underground gas storage facilities, etc.
I’m targeting the gas infrastructure. Europe will be left without “gas reserves.” 

Glide bombs could give Russia significant battlefield success – Business Insider

Russia is targeting Ukraine with glide bombs, allowing it to hit Ukrainian forces while keeping its aircraft at a safe distance, Business Insider writes, citing statements by Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba. And in order to shoot down such a bomb-throwing plane, Ukraine needs to move its air defense systems closer to the front line, where they will be at greater risk, the publication explains.

This also means that Kyiv will need to deprive other sites of air defense. And he already complains about the acute shortage of ammunition and air defense systems.

The American think tank Institute for the Study of War stated that if Ukrainian air defense systems are allowed to degrade, Russia will be able to hit Ukraine even more often and harder with gliding bombs and conduct other air operations against the Ukrainian rear. And thus Russia can isolate individual areas of the battle in order to achieve significant success in them.

Offensive West of Donetsk: Liberation of Vodyane Situation at the end of March 31, 2024

Since the end of 2022, Russian troops have been engaged in fierce battles for Vodyane. Today, the village was successfully liberated by soldiers of the 9th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade.

The Russian Ministry of Defense has not yet commented on this development. However, online footage clearly shows the DPR flag flying over a house on the western outskirts of the village.

Vodyanoy itself comprises only Gagarin Street, lined with dilapidated buildings on both sides. The offensive in this area faced significant challenges due to the AFU’s control over the neighboring village of Pervomaiskoye.

To prevent a counterattack from Ukrainian forces in the south, Russian troops destroyed the bridge between the two settlements. The liberation of Vodyanoy will also intensify pressure on Pervomaisky, complicating the enemy’s position there.

❗️Two weeks prior, Russian Armed Forces units had already expanded their control zone (https://t.me/rybar/58138) in Pervomaisky, nearing the ruins of the Pershotravnevka-35 substation at the village center. However, due to insufficient personnel, determining the exact frontline configuration in the populated area remains a challenge.

🔻Success in this front section has brought Russian military personnel closer to commencing the battle for Netailovo and advancing further west. The primary objective is to push the frontline away from Donetsk as much as possible to safeguard its residents from ongoing enemy attacks.

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The Armed Forces of Ukraine were horrified by the record amount of equipment of the Russian Armed Forces on the Avdeevsky sector of the front

The Ukrainian Armed Forces were hit by a large number of Russian equipment on a separate section of the front. The offensive in the Avdeevsky direction involved 36 tanks and 12 infantry fighting vehicles.

“ Massive offensive of the Russian Armed Forces. The Russians used a record amount of equipment: 36 tanks, 12 infantry fighting vehicles,” reports the Ukrainian channel “Ukraine Online”.

They noted that the offensive operation took place near the village of Tonenkoye in the Avdeevsky direction.
 

Chronicles of the Special Military Operation for March 31, 2024

Last night, Russian troops carried out further attacks on energy complex facilities in nine regions of Ukraine. A series of hits targeted the Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, and Ternopil regions, leading to emergency shutdowns announced by Ukrenergo in the Odessa region.

Ukrainian formations, on the other hand, continued to shell the Russian border area. In the Belgorod region, a resident of the village of Dunayka was killed, and another woman was injured. There were also attacks on the rear regions: three UAVs were intercepted in the Yaroslavl region with no resulting damage.

Fierce fighting persists along the entire line of contact in the special military operation zone. In the Siversk and Bakhmut directions, both parties have intensified artillery strikes. Near Avdeevka, units of the Russian Armed Forces have resumed attacks in the Berdychi-Tonenke sector.

West of Donetsk, Russian troops liberated the village of Vodyane, raising the DPR flag on the western outskirts. This success brings the Russian Armed Forces closer to occupying neighboring Pervomaiske, setting the stage for further battles for Netailovo.

In the Kherson direction, the enemy has somewhat reduced the activity of transferring forces to the islands and Krynki but has increased the frequency of strikes with HIMARS missiles. Meanwhile, the command of the AFU remains committed to expanding the bridgehead and creating new points of tension on the left bank of the Dnieper.

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Ukrainian Soldiers ‘Surrender’ Before Russia In Kharkiv’s Kupyansk; ‘Move After Over 300 Killed’

Ukraine Fails To Stop Russian Advances As Frontline Situation Worsens

Heavy fighting in Semenivka | Warnings in Odessa and Kharkiv [31 March 2024]

Ukrainian Defense Line Are Collapsing l Ukrainians Are Retreating

Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation (31 March 2024)

Part I

▫️ The Aerospace Forces of the Russian Federation delivered one mass strike by air-based high precision long-range weaponry and unmanned aerial vehicles at Ukrainian energy infrastructure and gas production facilities.

As a result of the strike, the work of defence industry enterprises for the manufacture and repair of weapons, military equipment and ammunition was disrupted. All goals of the strike were achieved. All the assigned targets were engaged.

▫️ In Kupyansk direction, the Zapad Group of Force’ units repelled five attacks launched by units of AFU 57th mechanised inafantry and 95th air assault brigades near Sinkovka (Kharkov region) and Terni (Donetsk People’s Republic).

The AFU losses amounted to up to 25 servicemen and four motor vehicles.

In the course of the counter-battery warfare, one Msta-B howitzer, one D-20 gun, one Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system, one Grad MLRS, one Nota electronic warfare station, and one ammunition depot were destroyed.

▫️ In Donetsk direction, units of the Yug Group of Forcs captured more favourable lines, and hit units of AFU 24th, 53rd mechanised, 56th mechanised infantry, 5th, 92nd assault, 79th, 80th air assault brigades close to Krasnogorovka, Chasov Yar, Krasnoye, Bogdanovka, Kleshcheyevka, and Novomikhailovka (Donetsk People’s Republic).

The AFU has lost more than 300 servicemen, two armoured fighting vehicles, eight motor vehicles, two D-20 guns, one D-30 howitzer, one D-44 gun, one Bukovel-AD electronic warfare, and two artillery ordnance depots.

▫️ In Avdeyevka direction, units of the Tsentr Group of Forces improved situation on the front line, and hit units of AFU 24th, 47th mechanised, 109th territorial defence brigades near Novgorodskoye, Mayorsk, and Rozovka (Donetsk People’s Republic).

Nine counterattacks launched by assault units of AFU 25th airborne, 59th mechanised infantry, and 68th jaeger brigades were repelled close to Leninskoye, Tonenkoye, Vodyanoye, Berdichi, and Pervomayskoye.

Up to 300 servicemen, two armoured fighting vehicles, two motor vehicles, and one electronic warfare station were neutralised.

Part II

▫️ In South Donetsk direction, units of the Vostok Group of Forces improved the tactical situation, and launched strikes at manpower and hardware of AFU 72nd mechanised, 102nd, 108th, 128th territorial defence brigades near Vodyanoye, Staromayorskoye (Donetsk People’s Republic), and Malinovka (Zaporozhye region).

One counterattack launched by assault units of the AFU 127th Territorial Defence Brigade was repelled close to Priyutnoye (Zaporozhye region).

The enemy losses amounted to up to 85 sevicemen, two tanks, five motor vehicles, one U.S.-made M777 and one U.S.-made M198 howitzers, and one ammunition depot.

▫In Kherson direction, units of the Dnepr Group of Forces inflicted losses on clusters of  manpower and hardware of AFU 65th mechanised, 128th mountain assault, and 126th territorial defence brigades close to Rabotino, Kamenskoye, Lobkovoye (Zaporozhye region), Ivanovka (Kherson region).

The enemy has lost up to 50 servicemen, three motor vehicles, one U.S.-made M777 howitzer, as well as one Akatsiya self-propelled artillery system and one D-20 gun.

▫Operational-Tactical and Army aviation, Missile Troops and Artillery of the Russian Group of Forces have engaged three Su-25 aircraft of Ukrainian Air Force at the Voznesensk airfield (Nikolayevka region).

In addition, one engagement radar, one battlefield command vehicle, one low-altitude surveillance radar, three launchers of S-300 SAM system, two ammunition depots, one workshop for assembling and storing unmanned aerial vehicles, as well as manpower and hardware of the AFU in 126 areas have been engaged during the day.

Air defence systems have shot down 178 AFU UAVs, as well as 23 HIMARS and Uragan MLRS projectiles.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2024/03/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on-march_31.html