The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on March 30 2024

Ukraine Prepares For Mass Retreat

Zelensky To Surrender? Ukrainian President Begs Allies, Says ‘Will Have To Retreat

Ukraine Army Chief Admits “Sixfold” Advantage To Russia | Zelensky Pleads Republican Speaker For Aid

Zelensky’s Big Change In Stance Amid Russian Blitz

Zelensky Sacks More Aides In Office Reshuffle | US “Warned” Ukraine Not To Attack Russian Refineries

‘Evacuate Now…’: West Nations Ask Citizens To Leave Kharkiv, Odesa Fearing Russia’s Victory

The danger of Ukraine’s defeat in the war is growing, – German opposition leader Friedrich Merz in Welt

“Russia has transferred its entire economy to a war footing and is producing weapons and ammunition in volumes significantly exceeding its current needs. This means that Russia is massively rearming much more than it is using in the war against Ukraine.”
 

President Volodymyr Zelensky delivered a stark message to Congress in an interview on Thursday as Russian missiles were pounding southern Ukraine: Give us the weapons to stop the Russian attacks, or Ukraine will escalate its counterattacks on Russia’s airfields, energy facilities and other strategic targets.

   The congressional delay in approving a $60 billion military aid package has been costly for Ukraine, Zelensky said. The military has been unable to plan future operations while legislators squabbled for nearly six months. He warned that hard-pressed Ukrainian forces might have to retreat to secure their front lines and conserve ammunition.

   “If there is no U.S. support, it means that we have no air defense, no Patriot missiles, no jammers for electronic warfare, no 155-milimeter artillery rounds,” he said. “It means we will go back, retreat, step by step, in small steps.”

   To describe the military situation, Zelensky took a sheet of paper and drew a simple diagram of the combat zone. “If you need 8,000 rounds a day to defend the front line, but you only have, for example, 2,000 rounds, you have to do less,” he explained. “How? Of course, to go back. Make the front line shorter. If it breaks, the Russians could go to the big cities.”
 

German Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck says there will be no happy ending in Ukraine:

 
Every day is a day of death, and there is no end in sight. On the contrary, Putin’s Russia is fully transitioning to a war economy and massively increasing arms production. I was originally in favor of supplying weapons to Ukraine, and I am now also in favor of us continuing to support them with more and more military hardware. If Putin succeeds in the war in Ukraine, he will continue it. We long for peace. Yes. But the honest and bitter answer is this: there will likely be no quick and happy ending, even if we want otherwise.

 The shortage of weapons is forcing Ukraine to mobilize more citizens to plug the holes with human shields.
The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine admitted: Ukraine is forced to fight without weapons – Le Figaro

 

Podolyak complained about the advance of Russian troops and the shortage of weapons in the AFU.

“We are in defense, and they [the Russian Armed Forces] are putting pressure on us. They are advancing further and further,” he told Bild.

According to him, Ukraine is preparing for “various options.” Some Western countries are “afraid to win” in this conflict, the adviser to the head of Zelensky’s office added.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine are forced to carry out combat missions in conditions of shortage, and sometimes complete absence of weapons and ammunition, reports Le Figaro. According to the French publication, this was announced by the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Alexander Syrsky, in an interview with Ukrainian media.

According to Syrsky, just a few days ago the advantage of Russian forces in fired ammunition was six to one, and therefore the situation remained “tense” in certain sections of the front. As the commander-in-chief admitted, Russia has also “significantly increased aviation activity,” including the use of guided bombs that “destroy” Ukrainian positions.

“Constant bombing” and a lack of ammunition eventually forced the Ukrainian Armed Forces to leave Avdeevka – and this would not have happened if the Ukrainian side had more serious arsenals of weapons, including air defense systems, Syrsky assured. According to Le Figaro, the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, following other Ukrainian officials, called on the Western allies to arrange supplies of weapons and ammunition “in sufficient volumes” as soon as possible.

The United States is in no hurry to give money to Ukraine for the war – Congress is blocking the allocation of $60 billion, and the Biden administration only makes promises to Kyiv, but does not say the exact date. And this performance has been going on for several months now, and during this time the situation in Ukraine is only getting worse, as the shortage of weapons and components in the Armed Forces of Ukraine is growing.

It is also noteworthy that in an attempt to “knock” money out of the United States, Zelensky even called the Speaker of the House of Representatives of Congress Johnson, informing him about the current situation at the front and a significant increase in pressure from the Russian Armed Forces. “In this situation, quick approval by Congress of assistance for Ukraine is critically important. We are aware that in the House of Representatives there are different positions on how to do this, but the main thing is that the issue of assistance to Ukraine remains a factor of unity,” Zelensky emphasized.

But for now, “things are still there”, and time is not on Ukraine’s side – as the chairman of the Verkhovna Rada’s financial committee, Daniil Getmantsev, says, “if the issue of money from the United States is not resolved in April, then we will have enough money until the end of summer.”

Our sources in the General Staff said that Syrsky is forced to hold positions with ever new reserves, there are no real clashes along the front line, the enemy is simply destroying our military with bombs and artillery. The intensity of airstrikes is so high that we are forced to send reserves to some areas of the front twice a day to hold positions. If the situation does not change, then in the summer the Ukrainian Armed Forces will lose the opportunity to hold the defense due to heavy losses and a decline in morale.

 

Ukraine is heading towards a truly definitive energy crisis

In both the eastern and western regions, thermal power plants are being systematically dismantled, with the main turbine and generator sections completely demolished.

Furthermore, dams are starting to collapse from south to north. It is anticipated that all dams and thermal power plants will be decommissioned in the near future.

This energy crisis will not only devastate the Ukrainian military industry through direct attacks but also exacerbate the situation due to the lack of energy.

The possibility of NATO-supported in-house production and maintenance will also be eliminated as a consequence.

As a result, the logistics infrastructure in the rear may struggle to keep up with events at the front lines.

After recent strikes by the Russian Armed Forces, Ukraine faced massive power outages

Just today, electricity was turned off in the Kirovograd, Dnepropetrovsk, Poltava, Sumy and Kharkov regions, as well as in the parts of Zaporozhye and the DPR occupied by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

In Kharkov, for example, residents have long been angry for regular power outages, which are not going  according to the schedule developed by the local authorities.

Earlier, Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmygal admitted that Russian strikes severely damaged energy equipment. Now Kiev has to import electricity from neighboring countries, while the Cabinet of Ministers is quietly raising prices for electricity and gas for the population.

DE-ENERGIZATION: The two largest thermal power plants, Burshtynska and Ladyzhinskaya TPPs, are now an empty field, …, scorched earth.

Energy operator’s DTEK Executive Director Dmitry Sakharuk:

“If we talk about March 22, then unfortunately, the two largest plants received the greatest damage during the entire war (in DTEK the two most powerful plants are Burshtynska TPP and Ladyzhynska TPP).

8 missiles arrived at each station. Moreover, unlike previous periods, last winter, the accuracy of the missiles is amazing. Running run METER. If earlier it was 100 meters, 200, 300, now they arrive meter by meter.

Unfortunately, it was not possible to shoot down these missiles and the consequences are simply colossal. There the field is clean, there are no roofs, no equipment, scorched earth…”

The Burshtynska and Ladyzhynska TPPs cannot be restored.

MyLordBebo 

Strike on oil storage facility in Poltava region

Tonight Russian troops struck the territory of the Poltava gas and oil company in the village of Sokolova Balka, using Geran-2 attack UAVs.

Coordinates: 49.2122552, 34.6525281

🔻 On the territory of the facility there are storage tanks for oil products and gas condensate with the volume of 2000 cubic meters each. Three kamikaze drones managed to destroy two tanks (which ones are unknown). A heavy fire broke out at the site, the glow from which was visible for several kilometers in the surrounding area.

🔻 In turn, the local authorities have already indirectly confirmed the defeat of the target – “There are several hits on an infrastructure facility on the territory of Poltava district”.

▪️ After multiple attacks of the Russian Armed Forces on Ukrainian oil refineries and fuel storage bases, Ukrainian formations began to use the territories and reservoirs of private oil and gas enterprises in the logistical chain of supplying their groups of troops in various directions. Thus, they are trying “not to keep all their eggs in one basket” and are dispersing their fuel and lubricant supplies.

Yes, the Russian Armed Forces periodically strike oil and gas industry facilities, but to get the effect it should have and create fuel shortages, it is necessary to systematically work out such targets. A one-time destruction or defeat of several reservoirs may be unpleasant for the enemy, but it does not have any catastrophic consequences.

At night, there were also repeated strikes on energy facilities in Odessa and Dnipropetrovsk regions. These were probably the PS Usatovo 330 kV and PS Pervomayskaya 330 kV, the extent of damage is unknown. After the explosions were reported in the Usatovo area, power outages began to be reported from local residents.

don_partizan

What remains of the Ukrainian energy system: analyzing the interim results of retaliatory strikes

Over the past 10 days, the Kiev regime has faced attacks by the Russian Armed Forces on critical infrastructure that are unprecedented in scale and effectiveness. The jokes are over, and even those objects that the Russian army “ignored” for one reason or another, such as the Zmievskaya thermal power plant located near the border, this time became targets of Russian attacks.

Now we can draw some intermediate results.

Currently, Kiev retains control over three operational nuclear power plants (total capacity up to 7.4 GW), six hydroelectric power plants (total capacity up to 4.5 GW), and five to three thermal power plants (total capacity up to 7.8 GW). However, the values   for hydro and thermal power plants are most likely the upper bound of the estimate: some operational power plants were also hit, and some power units were shut down due to malfunctions, so the actual numbers will be much lower.

That is, the upper estimate of Ukraine’s generating capacity at the moment is 19.7 GW. But it is more realistic to talk about ~14-15 GW. At the same time, in Kyiv they can still count on transfers from the EU – this is up to 2 GW.

At the same time, Ukraine’s average consumption ranges from 10 to 14 GW. It would seem that this would be enough, but in reality, the situation is critical: the energy sector of the UA is deprived of the opportunity to maneuver and is forced to supply the affected regions with electricity from remote power plants. These are losses (significant) during transportation, and simply an extremely high load on the equipment used for routing the network.

For the Russian Armed Forces, the most “sweet” targets now are high-voltage substations of 750/330 kV, as well as border substations through which energy transfer from the EU takes place. First of all, we are talking about the Zapadnoukrainskaya substation in the Lvov region.

Now Ukraine, despite the absence of cascading outages, is in much worse conditions than in November 2022. The generating capacity of the UA has fallen three times compared to 2021, and the safety margin of the Ukrainian energy system is close to zero.

The Russian X-101 rocket has become even more powerful

Zelensky’s pocket media complains that the Kh-101 missiles, which are launched from strategic aviation aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces against the infrastructure of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, now have a “double charge.”

We are talking about increasing the mass of the rocket warhead. That is, the damage from the rocket became even greater.

In the case of the X-101, Ukrainian journalists claim that the warhead now weighs 800 kg. She used to weigh 450kg.

Hard to confirm if this is true or Ukrainian rumour mill, this would be quite a major modification. We do know during a visit with Shoigu, one of the representatives of the enterprise told Shoigu that the warhead of the unnamed cruise missile was able to be increased from 450 kg to 800 kg, but it was unknown which missile was being discussed. It should be noted that Kh-101/2′s range is overkill for Ukraine, as it has an estimated range of 5500km. This allows it to hit anywhere in Europe, given the shorter range required it would seem possible to increase the payload.

ukraina_ru

Macron’s words about sending troops to Ukraine are not only addressed to Russia – American Conservative

French President Emmanuel Macron not only talks about the possible dispatch of Western troops to Ukraine, but also reminds that France also has nuclear weapons. Journalists at The American Conservative wonder what his statements might mean and who they might be addressed to.

They speculate that Macron may be trying to encourage his allies to provide more help to Ukraine before they have to send in the military. If these words are intended for Russian ears, then perhaps Macron is trying to make it clear: Russia cannot be sure that none of its allies will stand up for Ukraine. Finally, Macron may be trying to convince Europe that it needs to take charge of its own security, and intends to present France as a leader in this matter.

The expert council of the German parliament concluded that Article 5 of the NATO Charter on a collective response cannot be invoked in a situation with the deployment of troops by one of the bloc countries to Ukraine and a subsequent Russian attack on them, the DPA agency reports.

If parts of the troops of a NATO member state, in the exercise of collective self-defense (Article 51 of the UN Charter), take part in the current conflict (between Russia and Ukraine) in favor of Ukraine and, during military operations in the conflict zone, are attacked by the other party to the conflict (Russia), then this will not give rise to the application of Article 5 of the NATO treaty,
— the agency cites excerpts from a yet unpublished report of the Bundestag expert council.

As experts note, the article stipulating the possibility of a collective response from NATO can only be used if such a clash occurred on the territory of the alliance countries. According to experts, the entry of French troops into Ukraine would be acceptable, but would not mean that all other countries of the alliance would also automatically become parties to the conflict.

“There is currently no indication that Russia is planning to invade any NATO country”: NATO Military Committee head Bauer sees no danger, but demands to prepare for it.

“There is no indication that Russia is planning to attack any NATO member country. I don’t think there is a direct threat,” Rob Bauer said. “If something like that were to happen, it’s the responsibility of the country concerned to take care of security. If we are talking about hybrid operations, Latvia, for example, will have to respond to that. Of course, if Latvia wants to start consultations with other participating States, as stipulated in Article 4, this is possible. We will talk about it and agree on how we, as an Alliance, will proceed,” the admiral added.
At the same time, according to Bauer, Russia’s ambitions go beyond Ukraine. “We know that, so the Alliance as a whole needs to be more prepared,” he said.

The West is deaf, it does not hear Putin. But in vain

In the West, the Russian president has long been labeled a “villain,” writes Advance (https://www.advance.hr/tekst/u-trenutku-krize-i-eskalacije-progovara-jedan-drugi-putin-koji-na-zapadu-ne-dobiva-medijsku-paznju-ali-govori-o-vaznosti-multikulturalnosti-hvata-ga-tjeskoba-od-nacionalizma-i-pojasnjava-zasto-rusija-nece-napasti-nato/). And now, at a time of crisis and escalation, they again don’t want to listen to him. But in vain, because Putin very clearly explains why Russia will not attack NATO. His words are the basis for a settlement, and not for aggravating the situation in Europe.

It was Putin who on several occasions lowered tensions and set a different tone, acting as a counterweight to irreconcilable opinions. It is not beneficial for Russia to attack NATO countries, since this implies an unnecessary conflict between two nuclear forces.

“We have no aggressive intentions towards these states,” Vladimir Putin emphasized. “This is complete nonsense – the possibility of an attack on some other countries, on Poland, the Baltic states, they also scare the Czechs there. Just nonsense.”

However, the narrative that “Russia threatens all of Europe” seems to be stronger than common sense.

Our source reports that defense structures are being built 3 times more and faster in the Kharkov/Sumy regions than in the Donbass, where they are now very much needed.
Of course, this is due to the fact that Zelensky knows that the Russian Armed Forces have plans to attack Kharkov and even Odessa (it was not for nothing that the SBU tried to destroy all landing ships).

Another reason is that, when the Russians advance, corruption and money laundering at such fortifications will “become history”, since they will all be broken.

So put the puzzle together:
Ze knows that the offensive will happen this year. They are pouring billions into the Big Construction 2.0, taking ostentatious photos, so that later it will be easier to excuse where they spent a lot of money. Then an offensive occurs, positions are destroyed, evidence of corruption is destroyed.

We are watching.

 Russian Army storms Pervomayske near Donetsk, having broken through 1.5 km
The AFU’s defeats are again recognized by Ukrainian military analysts who publish maps.

 - “In Pervomayskoye, the Russians advanced along Pershotravnevaya, Shkolnaya, Mira and Tsentralnaya streets in a section up to 450 meters wide to a depth of 1.4 kilometers,” they write.

RVvoenkor

Vuhledar direction: advance of the Russian Armed Forces in Novomikhailovka
Situation as of 18:00, March 30, 2024.

Russian troops are making significant progress in Novomikhailovka and its vicinity. A video from one of the reports (https://t.me/TOF_VMF/2928) on the battles in the residential area shows that the Marines of the 155th Marine Brigade have advanced well beyond the town center, securing control over the school, recreation center, post office, and village council.

▪️ The western part of the village, along with a section of the Mashinostroitel gardening cooperative, remains under enemy control. This is supported by footage showing a Russian armored group attacking this area. Our information indicates that the Russian Armed Forces have gained control over the eastern outskirts of the facility.

▪️ Furthermore, the movement of Russian units along the forest belt suggests the absence of enemy forces in that area. There is also video evidence of an airstrike on Paraskovievka, which caused significant damage to one of the two asphalt roads controlled by the enemy leading to Novomikhailovka.

▪️ On the southern outskirts of the village, the Russian Armed Forces are attempting to advance in the Shevchenko and Timiryazev streets area. The enemy is putting up resistance and launching artillery and drone strikes.

rybar

Special Military Operation Update March 30, 2024

Russian troops launched attacks on enemy targets in both front-line and rear areas. These targets included substations, oil depots, and locations of Ukrainian formations in the Nikolaev, Odessa, and Poltava regions. Simultaneously, the AFU intensified attacks along the border of the Belgorod and Kursk regions.

In the Bakhmut sector, battles are ongoing near Chasiv Yar. The Russian Armed Forces are attempting to breach enemy defenses along the railway leading to the eastern outskirts of the city, while the enemy fortifies its front line.

Fighting in the Avdeevka sector is concentrated on the southern outskirts of Semenovka. There have been no significant changes in Berdychi and west of Tonenke.

In the Donetsk sector, positional battles persist in Krasnogorovka and Georgievka. Additionally, the Russian Armed Forces are advancing in Pervomaisky, with combat occurring in the village center.

Turning to the Ugledar sector, Russian troops have notably expanded their control zone in Novomikhailovka, including the village center and outskirts. The 155th Marine Brigade soldiers have advanced further west, securing control of the post office and village council buildings.

Reports indicate that the Russian Armed Forces have engaged in combat on the eastern outskirts of the Mashinostroitel holiday village, with the enemy retreating southward from the forested area.

Russian Breakthrough Pervomaiske & Heorhiivka

Collapse Of Pervomaiske And Heorhiivka Is Near l Two Ukrainian Villages Are About To Fall

Russian Breakthrough in Heorhiivka [30 March 2024]

Russian Promotion Along The Entire Donetsk Front | Blackout

Russian Forces Not Stopping; 3 POWERFUL Advances In Donetsk

Russian Defence Ministry weekly report on the progress of the special military operation

(23-30 March 2024)

Part I

▫️In the period from 23 to 30 March, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation delivered one mass strike and 57 group strikes by ground-, sea-, and air-based high precision long-range weaponry, including Zirkon hypersonic missiles and Kizhal ballistic missile, as well as unmanned aerial vehicles at Ukrainian military objects and supporting infrastructure.

As a result of the strikes, Ukrainian defence industry enterprises, decision-making centres of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and Ukrainian Security Service, uncrewed surface vehicle production facilities, arsenals, POL depots, air defence and power objects, as well as temporary deployment areas of special operations units and foreign mercenaries were wiped out. The goal of the strikes have been achieved. All the assigned targets have been engaged.

▫️In Kupyansk direction, units of the Zapad Group of Forces supported by aviation and artillery inflicted losses on manpower and hardware of seven AFU mechanised brigades and four territorial defence brigades near Ivanovka (Kharkov region), Stelmakhovka, and Chervonaya Dibrova (Lugansk People’s Republic).

11 counter-attacks launched by assault detachments of the AFU 95th Air Assault Brigade, 57th Motorised Rifle Brigade, 30th, 32th mechanised brigades, and 123rd Territorial Defence Brigade were repelled near Sinkovka (Kharkov region), Terni (Donetsk People’s Republic), and Serebryansky forestry.

The AFU losses amounted to up to 310 servicemen, two tanks, three armoured fighting vehicles, and 22 motor vehicles.

In the course of counter-battery warfare, 19 field artillery systems, including three howitzers:  U.S.-made M777 and M198, and one French-made CAESAR self-propelled artillery system were neutralised.

▫️In Donetsk direction, as a result of successful actions of the Yug Group of Forces’ units, Krasnoye (Donetsk People’s Republic) was liberated and tactical situation along the front lines was improved.

Strikes were delivered at units of six AFU assault brigades, two airmobile brigades, one tank brigade, and nine mechanised brigades near Belogorovka (Lugansk People’s Republic), Kleshcheyevka, Kurdyumovka, Andreyevka, Maksimilyanovka, Novomikhailovka, Paraskoviyevka, Spornoye, and Chasov Yar (Donetsk People’s Republic).

In addition, 12 counter-attacks launched by assault detachments of the AFU 67th Mechanised Brigade and 80th Air Assault Brigade were repelled near Bogdanovka and Krasnogorovka (Donetsk People’s Republic).

The AFU losses amounted to more than 2,360 servicemen, five tanks, 16 armoured fighting vehicles, 61 motor vehicles, and 23 field artillery systems, including 11 foreign-made samples.

▫️In Avdeyevka direction, units of the Tsentr Group of Forces continued to move into the depth of the enemy’s defences and captured more advantageous lines.

Aviation, artillery, and heavy flamethrower systems delivered strikes at manpower and hardware of eight AFU brigades, as well as 64 enemy counter-attacks were repelled near Semyonovka, Orlovka, Novgorodskoye, Umanskoye, Netaylovo, Pervomayskoye, Tonenkoye, and Berdychi (Donetsk People’s Republic).

The AFU losses in this direction amounted to more than 1,870 servicemen, 13 tanks, 20 armoured fighting vehicles, and 50 motor vehicles.

In the course of counter-battery warfare, 30 field artillery systems, including five U.S.-made M777 howitzers, one U.S.-made M109 Paladin self-propelled artillery system, one German-made Panzerhaubitze 2000 self-propelled artillery system, and one Grad MLRS were neutralised. 

Part II

▫️In South Donetsk direction, units of the Vostok Group of Forces improved the tactical situation along the front line and inflicted losses on units of seven AFU and Ukrainian National Guard brigades near Malinovka (Zaporozhye region), Urozhaynoye, Makarovka, and Ugledar (Donetsk People’s Republic).

Moreover, five attacks launched by assault detachments of the AFU 58th Motorised Rifle Brigade, 127th, and 128th territorial defence brigades were repelled near Staromayorskoye, Vodyanoye (Donetsk People’s Republic), and Priyutnoye (Zaporozhye region).

The AFU losses amounted to more than 860 servicemen, four armoured fighting vehicles, 35 motor vehicles, seven field artillery systems, including two Polish-made Krab self-propelled artillery systems and two UK-made FH-70 howitzers.

▫️In Kherson direction, as a result of the Dnepr Group of Forces cohesive actions, losses were inflicted on manpower and hardware of the AFU 128th Mountain Assault Brigade, 28th, 65th, 118th mechanised brigades, 35th Marines Brigade, and three territorial defence brigades near Rabotino, Novosyolovka, Nesteriyanka, Pyatikhatki (Zaporozhye region), Ivanovka, Mikhailovka, Gavrilovka, and Tyaginka (Kherson region).

The AFU losses amounted to more than 370 servicemen, two tanks, seven armoured fighting vehicles, 29 motor vehicles, and 13 field artillery systems, including five U.S.-made M777 howitzers.

▫️Missile Troops, Artillery, and unmanned aerial vehicles of the Russian Groups of Forces wiped out four MLRS combat vehicles, including one German-made MARS II MLRS, one Czech-made Vampire MLRS, and one Grad MLRS, five P-18 radar stations for detecting and tracking air targets, three U.S.-made counter-battery warfare stations, namely, AN/TPQ-36, AN/TPQ-48, AN/TPQ-50, as well as 18 electronic warfare stations, namely, Nota, Anclav-N, and Bukovel-AD.

18 Ukrainian servicemen have been taken prisoner during the week.

▫️Aviation and air defence units shot down 11 UK-made Storm Shadow cruise missiles, three Neptune anti-ship missiles, four U.S.-made ADM-160 MALR guided missiles, two S-200 air defence missiles converted to hit ground targets, two French-made Hammer guided aerial bombs, 171 HIMARS, Vampire, and Uragan MLRS projectiles, as well as 1208 unmanned aerial vehicles.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2024/03/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on-march_30.html