The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on March 27 2024

UK Can Fight Russia “Only For Few Months”, Biden Says US Needs To Save Ukraine from “Butcher Putin”

The Ukrainian Armed Forces have nothing to respond to the Russian “miracle bombs”

Russian KAB glide bombs have become a real “miracle weapon” for Russia. Ukrainians complain that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have practically no countermeasures for them, Forbes writes.

As the author of the material notes, in order to imagine how dangerous the current situation is for the Ukrainian brigades, one must take into account that it took only 125 KABs per day for several days to ultimately destroy the defense of Avdiivka. Of course, the Ukrainian Armed Forces had other problems, in particular, a desperate shortage of artillery ammunition, but the last straw was the KABs.

“After the arrival of one KAB, all that remains of any buildings and structures is a hole,” says fighter of the 3rd Ukrainian assault brigade Yegor Sugar.

Our source at the General Staff said that the Ukrainian Armed Forces were suffering heavy losses due to Russian air defense missile systems along the entire front line, and after the loss of three mobile air defense groups, the number of attacks increased several times. Syrsky began to remove some of the Patriot launchers from Kyiv in order to again form mobile air defense groups.

Our source in the OP said that there are fewer and fewer people in NATO who want to fight with Russia, due to its successes on the battlefield and the use of new methods of war. At the end of 2022, the West believed that the Russian army was weak and could be defeated on the territory of Ukraine, but the failed counteroffensive and heavy losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces changed the attitude of our partners to the war. A peaceful track along the demarcation line is constantly being imposed on us, and the format is being offered without direct negotiations with the Kremlin according to the Korean scenario or freezing the war according to the Japanese version.

Macron’s game with the possible deployment of troops to Ukraine is connected with the desire of the French President to manage the foreign policy of Europe – Bloomberg.

Emmanuel Macron didn’t need to post photos of himself hitting a punching bag to tell the world he was ready to fight. Even before Macron flashed his “raging bull” pose all over Instagram, the French president’s new hawkish stance was clear. With Britain no longer in the European Union and the German government riven by divisions, Macron has emerged as the de facto head of the continent’s foreign policy. He took the lead in confronting Russia and the humanitarian disaster in Gaza. But not all of his allies are confident that he is the best advocate for their interests.

 His controversial remark about sending troops into Ukraine prompted a swift and very public rebuke from German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and angered U.S. officials, who privately say such a move could even provoke clash with Moscow. He said Macron’s hints were intended to keep Russian President Vladimir Putin guessing, but officials familiar with NATO discussions on Ukraine said they could have had the opposite effect.
 By forcing Berlin to publicly rule out sending troops, Macron succeeded in dispelling lingering ambiguity over the location of allied red lines, according to a senior US official.

According to individual officials who also spoke to Bloomberg on condition of anonymity, these comments were not very smart from an operational security perspective, especially given that several countries already station personnel in Ukraine.

We continue to analyze the Bloomberg article, which analyzes Macron’s attempts to become the main actor in the West in military support for Ukraine.

The main problem for the French President may not be the attitude of NATO countries to his idea of   sending military personnel to Ukraine, but the internal political track. Macron could face a political crisis within the country if a coalition of politicians is created against his decision, but the situation will be much worse if the military opposes the initiative to support Ukraine.
In 2021, military generals already spoke out against Macron’s policies, and then this became a trigger for all of France, and the scandal engulfed the General Staff and part of the command. Now the situation is heating up and could be much more dangerous for Macron, but his political ambitions to take Merkel’s place in the EU do not allow him to weigh all the risks.

Our source in the OP said that the General Staff, at the direction of the Office of the President, conducted an analysis of the war in Ukraine and possible scenarios for the development of the situation with a reduction in financial/military assistance from the West. The main forecast is that the war will last at least until 2027, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces will have to mobilize an additional million Ukrainians, with only partial demobilization possible at the end of 2025.

Istanbul-1 did not suit us, and Istanbul-2 was disrupted by the Americans, now the question is what will Istanbul-3 be like! The military is already shouting about problems at the front, but instead there is a purge of Zaluzhny’s team.
A freeze in combat operations along the front line will occur this year or early next year, believes a Ukrainian Armed Forces sniper with the call sign “Grandfather.”

“I really believe that all the main events on the battlefield will be decided before the end of this year. I think that the maximum will be in the first half of 2025 – it’s even difficult for me to say this correctly. Not a truce, but there will be some kind of freeze in active operations at the front , as it was in principle through the ATO at one time,” said Ded.

He believes that in connection with this, the Russian Federation wants “now” to carry out a large mobilization and try to capture as many territories of Ukraine as possible. He believes that it will not be a problem for the Russian Federation to mobilize 100-300 thousand people.

President Zelensky’s policy of creating a dictatorship and tolerance of corruption in Ukraine was noticed by Western partners, and because of it, the state lost bipartisan support from the United States. This opinion was expressed by People’s Deputy and former Speaker of Parliament Dmitry Razumkov.

In his opinion, the Z-team viewed the war as a means of concentrating unlimited power in their hands, but this destructive activity is already leading to a quarrel with both key parties and candidates for the presidency of the United States. This has the most negative impact on assistance from Washington and its allies in general.

 “Our Western partners see that a dictatorship is being built here and power is being usurped. They are already talking about this on the sidelines; these are terrible signals not for deputies, but for the state, the country fighting the Russian Federation. We can win the war, but lose the state. In large offices we would like to see the same mechanisms of influence on the state that Putin has. I really hope that they will not succeed and the Ukrainian people will not allow this, but they do not hide this desire, it has been there for a long time. During the war, additional mechanisms for this appeared. For ordinary people, war is scary, lost relatives and friends, for them it is an opportunity to concentrate power in their hands. Due to the inadequate reaction of the authorities to publications in the West, Ukrainians and the Ukrainian state received problems. Today, the position of President Zelensky has led to the fact that we have lost bipartisan support in the United States to the extent that it was in 2022-23. And today, before the presidential elections, we may end up spoiling relations with both candidates and with all parties. But this will not be the relationship not of Zelensky, but of Ukraine as a state with institutions and parliamentary forces influencing decision-making in the United States. Our partners set conditions that the authorities do not like. But they do this because they saw that when money comes here, some of it is simply stolen.”
“, the politician said in an interview published on the YouTube channel of former people’s deputy Borislav Bereza.

Zelensky initially showed disrespect for parliament, “bending” it under the Office of the President, turning the legislative branch only into a servicing instrument of Bankova, Razumkov emphasized. Now in the leadership of the Rada there are no counterweights to the OP, because Stefanchuk is obediently doing it. Although open disrespect for representatives of the Servant of the People, their humiliation at closed meetings is already provoking discontent in the ranks of the mono-majority. So far, deputies have not decided to openly revolt, but the usurped power could be shaken at any moment, the politician believes.

 “He (President Zelensky) generally despised parliament; colleagues from the mono-majority often come to me and say, “God, what do we have to vote for.” At one time, the office could try to put pressure on me and through the majority, they independently, but many things were managed to be done better or so that they did not spoil both the state and the economy. Today there is no such thing. Stefanchuk and the leadership of the Verkhovna Rada fulfill all the whims of the Office of the President, and this irritates not only the people who oversee the work of parliament, but also the deputies of the mono-majority themselves. Zelensky made a huge mistake by concentrating the entire vertical of power in his hands. He grabbed and usurped all branches of power. And, on the one hand, it’s easy to manage, but one day this chair will fall, destroying everything that is under it and on it. And Zelensky and a team of five or six managers will be personally responsible. He showed disrespect for the faction by saying at one of the last meetings, “you are not my team, my team is the office,” this is a complete slap in the face to the deputies. Although for now they continue to vote for everything”
he noted.

If the United States does not provide financial assistance to Ukraine in the amount of more than $20-25 billion this year, then the war has every chance of ending by the beginning of 2025.
Ukraine will have to agree to peace agreements, and Zelensky will have to “resign” and not even stand as a candidate for elections. The whole failure will be blamed on him. He is very afraid of this.

We are watching…

Even the military already realizes that the conflict in Ukraine will end within a year.
The military is confident that the Russian Armed Forces are preparing a large-scale offensive operation for the summer in order to strengthen their positions before the auction.
Today we have already described why we believe that the war will last until 2025. One of the key factors is the case of financing and the deteriorating economic situation within Ukraine, which increases the negativity towards the authorities and the reluctance of society to fight.

‘Putin…Be Warned’: ISIS Threatens Second Terror Attack On Russia After Moscow Mall Rampage

‘Pretext For NATO Entry Into War’: Explosive Moscow Attack Charge By Ex-U.S. Official

Kiev is desperately trying to prove that the terrorist attacks in “Crocus” were not perpetrated by itself but by ISIS. Everyone understands the significance of this moment. If it can be proven that the Kiev Bandera group, a gang of criminals, is behind this, their downfall will be imminent. None, not even their “political parents,” would be able to support them afterward, leading to the regime’s rapid collapse.

This explains the fervent desire to deflect suspicion. This is especially true as, in the United States, Trump supporters are beginning to embrace this argument in their conflict with the Democrats. While currently only testing the waters, if this claim gains mainstream traction, Zelensky’s group will find themselves in deep trouble.

Moreover, the Center for Post-Soviet Studies itself realizes that implicating ISIS will be extremely challenging. The crime does not match ISIS’s modus operandi, lacking both their typical signatures and a plausible motive. In fact, the individuals who committed this heinous act do not resemble the kind of radicals willing to die for their beliefs.

Instead, the methodology suggests the use of societal outcasts, paid to commit crimes in Russia, particularly at a time convenient for our adversaries. This tactic, as Vladimir Vysotsky’s character Captain Zheglov would put it, has a “completely recognizable style” and mirrors the operation style of Ukrainian special services for nearly two years. The involvement of Tajik migrants can be easily explained by the special operation’s objectives: to sow ethnic and religious discord within Russia and attempt to destabilize it from within, as the regime is failing on the front and sees no other escape.

Hence, there are attempts to “cast a shadow on the fence,” (red herring)  insinuating that this is the doing of the Russian government itself. This includes overt manipulation of facts, such as falsely claiming that the culprits fled to Belarus instead of Ukraine, despite clear evidence to the contrary. This attempt to obscure one of the main pieces of indirect evidence linking the perpetrators to the orchestrators underscores the desperation.

Furthermore, knowing that the criminals (who were likely not meant to survive) will soon start talking, there is an effort to preemptively discredit their testimonies.

Meanwhile, all four involved individuals were detained and placed in pre-trial detention for two months. Yet, the narrative does not stop here. As the initial shock subsides, emerging questions suggest that the four Tajiks were merely the “tip of the iceberg” in this conspiracy, making the ISIS theory increasingly untenable.

Yury_Podolyaka

WEST SCRAMBLED TO MAKE EXCUSES FOR KIEV AND THEMSELVES AFTER MOSCOW TERROR ATTACK  – ZAKHAROVA: Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman states West showed NO EVIDENCE that ISIS (https://t.me/IntelRepublic/35672) to blame, yet quick to dismiss fact that Russia has evidence suggesting Ukraine AND its handlers behind act of terror (https://t.me/IntelRepublic/35670) (00:08).

Zakharova adds that Mad Vlad forced to accuse Russia of committing Crocus City Hall massacre (https://t.me/IntelRepublic/35566) by his overlords:

Not easy for West to blame Russia for attack, then they would become real global outcasts. Therefore, Kiev regime did it for them. West delegated, once again, dirtiest work to Kiev – Zakharova (00:42).

The Russians continue to push the front in Donbass: in the Avdeevsky sector, the Russian Armed Forces are developing an offensive near Berdychi, Semenovka, Orlovka and Tonenky, in the direction of Chasov Yar, Russian troops are advancing north of Ivanovsky and in the Kleshcheevka area.

Military experts from the Center for Strategic and International Studies Mark Cancian and Chris Park write in an analytical report that the Russian Armed Forces are primarily superior to the Armed Forces of Ukraine in terms of the scale of artillery reserves. This is especially important given that artillery accounts for 80% of all fire damage. “Without an influx of artillery ammunition, Ukraine is unable to hold its position, let alone launch another counteroffensive,” Cancian and Park write.

Simply holding lines requires 75 thousand shells per month, while a major offensive will require twice as much. In contrast, Russia fires about 300 thousand artillery shells every month (about 10 thousand per day).

At the same time, the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are growing, which is evident even from the number of obituaries of commanders. The number of deaths per day is equal to the times of the counteroffensive, and the shelling of the Russian Armed Forces is becoming more accurate and effective.

 

An unchained chain – a detailed analysis by Readovka of the situation on the Avdeevsky direction of the front on the evening of March 27

The failure of the defense of Avdeevka last month forced the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with all its available forces to hold on to the chain of villages lying to the west of the city: Tonenkoye, Orlovka, Semenovka and Berdychi. The bet was made that Avdeevka would still hold out until the last “predator”, but the plan failed. The situation forced us to immediately retreat and frantically dig in in the villages, preserving the integrity of the front at any cost.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces have abandoned Tonenkoe and Orlovka for the moment, and the only thing that makes the enemy’s unenviable task easier here is the presence of a natural water barrier on the approach to Semenovka , which excludes a frontal attack. From the north, Semenovka is covered by Berdychi , where the famous 47th Mechanized Infantry Brigade “Magura” is deployed, which was previously at the forefront of the attack in Zaporozhye, and before that was trained in NATO countries. Relying on the characteristics of the terrain and the strong composition of the defense, the Ukrainian Armed Forces hope to stabilize the situation. However, the vaunted 47th, no matter where it arrived, has still not emerged from the battles invincible, both in attack and defense. Read more in the Readovka analytical report .

 

Battle for #Krasnoye – Village not Fully Taken⚡️

On Tuesday 26 Feb 2024, Ukrainian Petrenko 👉 reported (https://t.me/sitreports/25119) “fighting continues beyond #Ivanovskoye” (#Krasnoye)”, Russian original text: “На ЧасовЯрском направлении продолжаются бои восточнее Лиственного леса, в северо-восточной части заказника Ступки-Голубовские 2 и за Ивановское.” Today he 👉 reported (https://t.me/sitreports/25172): “Russian troops continue their assault operations in #Bogdanovka and #Ivanovskoye. Without changes” Additional he claimed (https://t.me/petrenko_IHS/4730):

💬 The Situation in #Ivanovskoye:

On March 23, the Ministry of Defence of the RF announced the taking of control of the village #Ivanovskoye in the #Bakhmut direction. The information is absolutely and completely untrue. However, this information was not intended for Russian citizens, and certainly not for ours, but exclusively for Russian fighters, who were sent to the western part of the village on 23, 24 and 25 March, having previously shown the statement of the Ministry of Defence of the RF about full control over #Ivanovskoye. Naturally, the Russian fighters not only failed to reach the western part of the village, they did not even have time to enter the central one, because the AFU inflicted fire damage on them along Shirokaya Street and Artyom Lane in the eastern part of #Ivanovskoye.

The mistakes of the Russian command allowed the AFU to inflict significant damage to enemy personnel, who, having suffered serious losses, significantly reduced the number of attacks in #Ivanovskoye.

For now I see #Krasnoye as contested again!

Rybar

 

The landing force breaks through the defenses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, coming close to Chasov Yar

▪️Advancing from Artyomovsk (Bakhmut), the forces of the Airborne Forces and Southern Military District in recent days were able to defeat a number of units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, occupy large strongholds and approach the important city of Chasov Yar. The 98th Ivanovo Airborne Division is confidently moving forward.

▪️Ukrainian military analysts again write about the sad situation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and publish maps of the progress of the Russian Armed Forces:

“The Russians had significant success in the direction of Chasov Yar. They managed to capture a number of large strongholds of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, quite well prepared ones. There are only about 500 meters left from the administrative limits of the city to the positions of the Russians,” write enemy resources.

▪️ “East of Chasov Yar, Russian troops advanced along the railway and a section of the O0506 road in an area up to 1.85 km wide to a depth of 1.15 km. Fighting continues on the outskirts of the Listvenny Forest,” they wrote the other day.

▪️”In the Ivanovsky area and its surroundings, the situation is not much better. Several strongholds were also lost.”

▪️”In the Chasov Yar direction, fighting continues east of the Listvenny Forest, in the northeastern part of the Stupki-Golubovskie 2 reserve and in the Ivanovsky area.”

The Russians are heavily attacking the Sumy region. They turned off the power in Kharkov and hit the energy infrastructure of “eastern/southern and central” Ukraine. Complicating the work of the entire energy system of the country. This complicates all processes in the country, slows down the economy even more, increasing the budget deficit.
This again, as in 2023, gave rise to rumors that they would attack Kharkov and encircle it. Moreover, they will also enter through Sumy, where they fly constantly.

No one can say for sure, but there is a possibility. Of course, the Russians can still wait, since time is on their side now.

The West is becoming less and less interested in the Ukrainian crisis, especially against the backdrop of Israel’s “demarche,” which raises the stakes on the Palestinian issue.
Add here the issue of the Balkans and the ever-heating Taiwan case. And you will immediately understand that the Ukrainian crisis may soon lose its relevance among Western sponsors, which will complicate the situation at the front for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Then the Kharkov and even Odessa operation could happen.

Looming Disaster | Several Russian Advances | Ukraine’s Race Against Time

Multiple Russian advances today [27 March 2024]

Half of Berdychi Under Russian Control Following Armored Assault Caught in 4k

[ SITREP ] Polish General died of Natural Causes in Chasiv Yar missile attack???

Russian Defence Ministry Report on the Progress of the Special Military Operation (27 March 2024)⚡️

The RF Armed Forces continue the special military operation.

▫️In Kupyansk direction, the Zapad Grouping inflicted fire damage on troops of the 32nd and 60th Motorised Infantry Brigades close to Sinkovka (Kharkov reg) and Terny (DPR).

The AFU lost up to 20 troops and 3 MVs.

Counterbattery warfare eliminated 2 D-20, 2 US M777 and M198 howitzers, 1 Giatsint-S SAU, 1 US AN/TPQ-50 CB radar station, and 2 Anklav-N EW stations.

▫️In Donetsk direction, the Yug Grouping hit troops and hardware of the 3rd Assault, 56th Motorised Infantry, 28th, 30th Mechanised, 46th and 81st Airmobile Brigades near Zaliznyanskoye, Bogdanovka, Chasov Yar, Kleshcheyevka, and Andreyevka (DPR)  took more advantageous lines.

The enemy lost up to 220 troops, 2 tanks, 2 IFVs, and 3 MVs.

Counterbattery warfare eliminated 1 Gvozdika, 1 German PzH 2000, 1 US M109 Paladin SAUs, 1 D-30, 1 US M198 howitzers, 2 Nota and Anklav-N EW stations, and 1 art. ammo depot.

▫️In Avdeyevka direction, the Tsentr Grouping repulsed 9 counterattacks and attacks of the 24th, 47th, 53rd Mechanised, 25th Airborne, and 59th Motorised Infantry Brigades near Shumy, Leninskoye, Tonenkoye, Vodyanoye, Pervomayskoye, and Berdychi (DPR), and inflicted fire damage on the enemy formations, and improved the situation along the frontline.

The AFU lost up to 255 troops, 2 IFVs, and 6 MVs.

Counterbattery warfare hit1 Gvozdika, 1 US M109 Paladin SAUs and 1 US M777 howitzer.

▫️In South Donetsk direction, the Vostok Grouping repulsed 3 assault group counterattacks of the 128th Territorial Defence Brigade close to Staromayorskoye (DPR), and improved the tactical situation.

The enemy lost up to 60 troops, 2 APCs, 3 pickups, 1 Polish Krab and 1 Gvozdika SAUs.

▫️In Kherson direction, the Dnepr Grouping inflicted fire damage on troops and hardware of the 65th Mechanised and 121st Territorial Defence Brigades close to Rabotino (Zaporozhye reg) and Oskorovka (Kherson reg).

The AFU lost up to 40 troops and 2 AFVs.

▫️The Russian Grouping’s Operational-Tactical Aviation, UAVs, Missile Troops, and Artillery engaged the assembly and storage sites of UAVs, troops and military hardware in 136 areas.

Air defences shot down 210 UAVs, 21 HIMARS and Vampire MLRS shells.

📊 In total, 577 aircraft, 270 helicopters, 17,352 UAVs, 489 SAMs, 15,614 tanks and other AFVs, 1,256 MLRS vehicles, 8,546 guns and mortars, and 20,260 special military vehicles have been destroyed during the SMO.

MoD

 

Special Military Operation Chronicles March 27, 2024

Throughout the day, the Russian army carried out attacks on enemy targets in various regions of Ukraine. Additionally, the Russian Armed Forces are advancing in multiple sectors in the Bakhmut and Avdeevsky directions.

In the Chasov Yar area, Russian forces are nearing the Kanal microdistrict, while in Bohdanivka, they have expelled the enemy from the village center. Near Berdychi, the Russian Armed Forces are launching armored group attacks, pushing towards Semyonovka despite enemy counterattacks.

Tensions remain high in other areas. Heavy battles are taking place in Novomikhailovka in the Ugledar direction, and at Robotyne and Verbov, the Russian Armed Forces are fending off enemy counterattacks in the Zaporozhye direction.

In the Kherson direction, Ukrainian formations have assumed defensive positions in Krynki, while on the right bank of the Dnieper, the Ukrainian command is restructuring units.

rybar

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2024/03/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on-march_27.html