The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on March 13 2024

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Ukrainian commanders told Der Spiegel that the Ukrainian Armed Forces would not hold out for long.

The publication spoke with Ukrainian officers to find out what the situation is in various sectors of the front.

Most of them agree: due to insufficient supplies, almost all units are forced to conserve ammunition.

Some troops are currently able to hold their positions – and then only until the Russian side attacks in full force.

If the attacks intensify, then due to an acute shortage of personnel, weapons and ammunition, they will not be able to be stopped for long.

Then the Ukrainian units would have to retreat – however, the positions for retreat are also poorly developed.

“The Ukrainians are struggling right now while the Russians are advancing all along the front,” said military expert Mark Cancian of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Ukraine is trying to adhere to an active defense strategy, but instead of counterattacking, it is losing more and more high-quality equipment from the West. Many units will soon run out of ammunition.

“We won’t be able to hold out like this for long,” admitted the commander of the Ukrainian artillery near Ugledar.

The situation at the front continues to worsen for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, there is a lack of equipment and ammunition, and UAVs are losing effectiveness.
The Chief of the British General Staff, General Patrick Sanders, admitted during a conference at the US National Training Center in California that at least 80% of all Ukrainian drones (local and Western production) launched at Russian military and civilian targets “ simply fail due to the extremely effective operation of electronic countermeasures .”

 

Our source reports that the situation in the Ukrainian Armed Forces with ammunition may stabilize closer to the summer. The Czech initiative with 800 thousand shells will have to temporarily satisfy the hunger.

Until this moment, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will lose more people, more territories and equipment.

But everyone is more worried not about the fact that Ukraine will only be given shells closer to the summer and the severe shortage will subside by the end of the year, but about the fact that there are no guarantees of arms supplies for 2025 and 2026. Even in minimal sizes.

So the future looks bleak. In fact, our partners use us in their global game, as cheaply as possible for themselves.

Our source reports that the Ukrainian Armed Forces along the entire front line are losing more than two hundred fpv and reconnaissance drones every day. At peak moments, when there is a hot phase, losses amount to more than 500 units per day.
This is not to mention the fact that there were moments when the Russians covered the temporary warehouse of various bookmakers, where there were fpvshki.

There is a constant shortage of drones, as well as smart operators.

Also, the situation at zero is constantly changing. Russians are increasingly and massively using electronic warfare and electronic warfare systems to target control centers, etc.
This forced Ukraine to start “writing” its own operating system with AI, but so far the first samples are too crude. At least the West is helping us in this case.

This war is changing very quickly and the one who is the first to work on mistakes, find solutions or calculate the next moves then has an advantage.
The monopoly and efficiency of drones will soon decrease – everyone knows this. The question is what will replace them and who will apply it en masse.
Another point is a lot of money. Nothing will happen without them.

We are watching.

The more problems there are at the front, the more problems with mobilization, the more problems with corruption, the more PR and window vents from the authorities.

The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Alexander Syrsky, and the Minister of Defense, Rustem Umerov, visited the forward positions on the Eastern Front, where the situation is worsening due to the threat of a Russian offensive.

The situation at the front is difficult in all directions.
There are no victories, there is a lot of hype.

Putin on Ukraine talks:

   Are we ready for negotiations? Yes, we are ready. But only we are ready for negotiations, not based on some “wishes” after the use of psychotropic drugs, but based on the realities that have developed, as they say in such cases, on the ground. It is ridiculous of us to negotiate now just because they are running out of ammunition. Nevertheless, we are ready for a serious conversation, and we want to resolve all conflicts, and even more so this conflict by peaceful means. But we must clearly and distinctly understand for ourselves that this is not a pause that the enemy wants to take for rearmament, but a serious conversation with guarantees for the security of the Russian Federation. We know the various options that are being discussed, we know the “carrots” that are going to be shown to us in order to convince us that the moment has come. We want, I repeat once again, to resolve all disputes and this dispute, this conflict, by peaceful means. And we are ready for that, we want that. But this should be a serious conversation with security for the opposing side, and in this case we are primarily interested in the security of the Russian Federation. We will proceed from this.

Putin – on the possibility of Ukraine’s disintegration:

   If, say, Polish troops enter the territory of Ukraine, as it sounds, to cover the Ukrainian-Belarusian, let’s say, border or in some other places, to free Ukrainian military contingents to participate in combat operations on the line of contact, I think Polish troops will never leave afterwards. I think so. They dream and see, they want to return those lands, which they consider historically theirs and which were taken away from them by the “father of nations” Joseph Stalin and given to Ukraine. They want them back, of course. And if official Polish units enter there, they are unlikely to leave.
But then other countries that lost part of their territories as a result of World War II may follow suit. I think that the geopolitical consequences for Ukraine, even from the point of view of preserving its statehood in its present form, will certainly be in full glory.

The legitimacy of Zelensky’s rule after May 20 of this year, according to the Constitution, will be completely nullified; he will have to surrender power to parliament if he does not want problems both on the internal and external tracks, says former people’s deputy Igor Mosiychuk.

The situation may develop according to an unpredictable scenario for the country, since they will no longer listen to Zelensky, telling him that he no longer has the right to represent the Ukrainian people and the state, therefore “the doors can be burned,” says Moseychuk.

“The country is approaching the Rubicon, and the government is doing nothing to avoid risks. And the risks are associated with May 21, when the president de jure loses his powers. The president is not power, he is the highest official with a representative mandate. And the fathers of the constitution “they foresaw that this person could usurp power, his powers are transferred to parliament after 5 years. The main danger is that 21, someone – 22, someone in six months will say – who are you, Vladimir Alexandrovich ,” he warns.

Mosiychuk focuses on the fact that the Office of the President, as well as the opposition political forces, themselves contribute to inflaming the crisis in this aspect, since no one submits a petition to the Constitutional Court. Instead, the government hides behind the opinions of people dependent on it, passing off their words as the ultimate truth. However, their theses are not convincing either for the majority of society or for external players. This only confirms the weakness of the legal position of the Ze-team, which clings to power to the detriment of the Ukrainian state, the politician notes.

 

Slobozhansky direction: regrouping of AFU forces and battles on the border Situation at 14:00 on March 13, 2024

Despite the unsuccessful attacks (https://t.me/rybar/58109) yesterday, Ukrainian formations continued their attempts to cross the state border and enter the border villages of the Belgorod region.

▪️ Currently, the AFU forces are concentrated in several areas, including Bolshaya Pisarevka and its surroundings, as well as Popovka. There were recorded battles on the approaches to Kozinka during the night and morning.

▪️ The enemy is still moving armored vehicles to the front lines and using FPV drones. Simultaneously, the Russian Armed Forces are targeting various targets with drones, artillery, and army aviation helicopters.

▪️ In the Tetkino area, the situation remains unchanged after yesterday’s clashes: the videos of ex-Rus from “RDK” allegedly entering the village were actually filmed (https://t.me/voenacher/62406) in Ryzhevka in the Sumy region, and the Ukrainian units in the area are not taking active actions, fearing attacks.

Despite suffering significant losses and failing to achieve even media success, Ukrainian formations are not planning to halt new attacks. Therefore, new attack attempts are highly likely in the near future.

Meanwhile, the AFU continues to target settlements and facilities in the Belgorod region, posing a threat to civilians and incurring economic costs for the region.

rybar

 

 

For the second consecutive day, the so-called Ukraine has been carrying out mass attacks  on the border and rear regions of Russia. According to official reports, in the past 24 hours, air defense units have successfully destroyed over 60 unmanned aerial vehicles.

▪️ In Ryazan, the AFU launched attacks on two oil refining installations at the Ryazannefteprodukt JSC refinery using Mugin-5 Pro drones. This led to a fire and caused injuries to two plant workers.

▪️ In the Leningrad region, a mobile group intercepted a drone approaching the KINEF oil refinery. This marks the second attack on the Kirishi region in the past two days.

▪️ Drones also targeted the Rostov region, where electronic warfare systems successfully disabled three UAVs that then crashed onto the premises of the Novoshakhtinsky Oil Refinery. As a result, all technological processes at the facility have been halted.

▪️ In Belgorod, one unmanned aerial vehicle collided with an apartment building, while another fell into the river. In the Gubkinsky and Novooskolsky urban districts, as well as the Krasnensky and Prokhorovsky districts, multiple private houses, gas supply, and power lines suffered damage due to UAV attacks.

▪️ Air defense systems successfully downed 40 drones over the Voronezh region, with most being intercepted over Voronezh. Fragments of several drones landed in the market area. It appears that the primary target of the assault was once again the airfield in Buturlinovka and Voronezh.

▪️ In the Bryansk region, air defense units shot down eight drones, while the same number were intercepted over the Kursk region as they approached the regional capital, resulting in no casualties or damage on the ground.

rybar

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“Attack on the Border”

We continue to be astonished by the enemy’s willingness to sacrifice personnel and equipment in futile attacks, all for the sake of a few lines on Telegram and other social networks.

The video depicts the aftermath of an armored group from the Kiev regime attempting to navigate minefields. While the militants were aware of the presence of a minefield ahead, they were uncertain of its exact location.

Engineers from the state border covering group utilized the “Agriculture” remote mining system, resulting in the deployment of anti-personnel mines around the approaches to their positions. The enemy’s strength was further diminished by artillery fire.

As of 8:00 PM Moscow time, the enemy persists in sacrificing their troops in futile attempts to attack the positions of the Russian Army and border guards. It appears that the main intelligence department of Ukraine, responsible for overseeing enemy operations, will only cease their provocations once they have exhausted all personnel and equipment deployed to the Kharkov and Sumy regions for the purpose of organizing combat information provocations.

 

Offensive West of Donetsk: Fighting In the Center of Pervomaisky Situation as of 19:00, March 13, 2024

After the recent successes (https://t.me/rybar/58105) of Russian units in the Donetsk direction, the next goal was to cut off the ledge at the Vodyane-Nevelskoye line. Thanks to footage (https://t.me/creamy_caprice/4748) published online, it was possible to confirm the advance of the Russian Armed Forces in Pervomaisky, where fighting has been ongoing for almost a year and a half.

▪️ Russian units managed to advance along Pervomaiskaya Street, approaching the ruins of the Pershotravnevka-35 substation in the village center. This progress was facilitated, in part, by the use of FPV drones for targeted strikes on positions of the AFU.

Despite reports claiming Russian Armed Forces’ control of a WOG gas station near the Novoavdeevsky headquarters, there is no objective confirmation of this yet. Considering the current front line configuration, it is unlikely that Russian troops could cover such a significant distance to the west in a short time.

▪️ Progress is seen in the southern part of the settlement along the E40 highway leading to Netailovo. However, the dried-up reservoirs between the village and Nevelskoye are still under AFU control, with no information indicating the enemy’s withdrawal from that area.

🔻Success in this sector will pave the way for battles for Netaylovo with the potential for an offensive in the Karlovka area, as well as shifting the front line away from Donetsk in this sector.

rybar

 

❗️🇷🇺🇺🇦 Russian Army Advances West of Donetsk: Victories Near Georgievka
Situation as of 21:00, March 13, 2024

In the Georgievka area, Russian troops are pushing forward to expand their control zone and secure more tactically advantageous positions for a future assault on the populated area.

▪️ Video capturing the actions (https://t.me/creamy_caprice/4732?single) of a Russian armored group has surfaced online, showing their advancement to a landing site north of the village. During the battle, the enemy attempted to disable the vehicles using FPV drones.

▪️ Despite facing fire from Ukrainian forces, the Russian Armed Forces successfully carried out the attack: the equipment managed to deploy troops, who then took positions in the forest. However, some vehicles were hit during the retreat.

This incident serves as a reminder that despite the proliferation of drones on the battlefield, armored vehicles remain essential for providing direct support to infantry, both offensively and defensively. The need to protect them from new threats is becoming increasingly critical.

rybar

 

#Nevelskoye on #Avdeyevka Southern Front still under the AFU⚡️

❗️I count the village still under AFU control, cause the takeover yesterday 👉 Claimed by RF MoD (https://t.me/sitreports/24391) remained unproven. To the facts:

🟡The takeover, see the pink area on map,👆does not fit to the situation on the ground. The AFU is not exactly known for simply abandoning strategically important locations. This is one 👉 Recent Report (https://t.me/sitreports/24386) from the area by Russian analysts.

🟡Ukrainian analysts see a difficult situation for the AFU and approaching RFAF, but claim full control over the village. See Petrenko’s 👉 Morning Report (https://t.me/sitreports/24432), also 👉 @DeepStateUA (https://t.me/DeepStateUA/19036).

🟡@Wargonzo, contrary to the other Russian analysts, did not mention the village in today’s 👉 Morning Report (https://t.me/sitreports/24430).

📌  To conclude, I see absolutely no reason that there could have been a takeover of control in #Nevelskoye. Thus, @mod_russia/@mod_russia_en is asked to provide further evidence through video footage. For the time being, the village remains under Ukrainian control and further developments remain to be seen.

According to Kherson Governor Saldo, russian paratroopers and marines landed on the right bank of the Dnieper at the base of the Antonovsky Bridge at night, destroying several enemy positions, after which they retreated to the left bank without losses.

Map of military operations and the situation on the fronts on the evening of March 13

💥Over the past 2 days, the Kiev regime has sent more than 120 UAVs to Russian regions. In addition to the border regions, the Ukrainian Armed Forces attempted to attack the Moscow, Ryazan, Nizhny Novgorod and Leningrad regions. The result is expected – most of the enemy drones were shot down. These attacks from 404, as well as the unsuccessful attack of the Vyruss on peaceful settlements in the border area, are only a media attempt to justify their existence and demonstrate the remnants of their strength.

⚔️The situation on the fronts over the past 24 hours:

⚫️Bakhmutskoe (Artemovskoe) direction

The Russian army storms the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Bogdanovka . In Krasnoye there are oncoming battles. There is progress in the Kleshcheevka area.

⚫️Donetsk direction

In the Avdeevsky sector, the battles for Berdychi , Orlovka and Tonenky do not stop. In the last two n.p. our fighters have expanded their zone of control. In Pervomaisky, the Russian army advanced in the center of the village, as well as in the south along the highway leading towards Netailovo.

⚫️Zaporozhye direction

In the Orekhovsky sector there were oncoming battles in Rabotino . The Ukrainian Armed Forces attempted to counterattack northwest of Verbovoy.

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Russia Made Significant Advances In Pervomaiske l Ukrainian Forces Struggle To Hold Defensive Line

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Russian forces advancing in Nevelske & Pervomaiske [13 March 2024]

Russian Defence Ministry Report on the Progress of the Special Military Operation (13 March 2024)⚡️

The RF Armed Forces continue the special military operation.

▫️In Kupyansk direction, the Zapad Grouping repulsed  1 counterattack near Terny (DPR), and inflicted losses on troops and hardware of the 57th Motorised Rifle Brigade near Sinkovka (Kharkov reg).

An enemy attempt to intrude the RF border territory was thwarted in Belgorod and Kursk regions.

The AFU lost up to 250 troops, 7 tanks, 3 US Bradley IFVs, 2 APCs, 4 MVs, 1 US M777, 2 D-20 howitzers, 1 D-30 howitzers, 1 Gvozdika and 1 Nova SAUs.

▫️In Donetsk direction, the Yug Group of Forces inflicted losses on troop clusters and hardwareof the 56th Motorised Rifle, 28th, 42nd, 93rd Mechanised, 5th, 92th Assault, 17th Tank, and 241st Territorial Defence Brigades near Krasnoye, Kleshcheyevka, Andreyevka, and Kurdyumovka (DPR), and took more advantageous lines and positions.

The enemy lost up to 245 troops, 1 tank, 3 AFVs, 5 MVs, and 1 Strela-10 anti-air system.

Counterbattery warfare neutralised 1 UK AS-90 Braveheart, 1 Gvozdika SAUs, 1 D-20, 3 D-30 howitzers, and 2 ammo depots.

▫️In Avdeyevka direction, the Tsentr Grouping repulsed 12 assault squad counterattacks of the 47th Mechanised, 3rd, and 78th Assault Brigades near Novobakhmutovka, Kirovo, Berdychi, Orlovka, and Tonenkoye (DPR), and struck troops and hardware of the 23rd and 24th Mechanised Brigades near Novgorodskoye, Kirovo, and Leninskoye (DPR), and improved the tactical situation along the frontlines.

The AFU lost up to 460 troops, 1 tank, 3 command post vehicles, and 17 MV.

Counterbattery warfare neutralised 1 UK  AS-90 Braveheart SAU, 1 US M777, 1 Msta-B and 1 US M119 howitzers.

▫️In South Donetsk direction, the Vostok Grouping repulsed 1 counterattack of the 58th Motorised Rifle Brigade near Novodonetskoye (DPR), and inflicted losses on troops and hardware of the 102nd and 128th Territorial Defence Brigades near Malinovka (Zaporozhye reg), Staromayorskoye, and Urozhaynoye (DPR), and took more advantageous positions.

The enemy lost up to 150 troops, 2 APCs, and 2 pickups.

▫️In Kherson direction, the Dnepr Grouping inflicted losses on the 141st Infantry, 23rd National Guard, and 35th Marines Brigades near Stepovoye (Zaporozhye reg), Nikopol (Dnepropetrovsk reg), Berislav, and Tyaginka (Kherson reg).

The AFU lost up to 30 troops, 2 MVs, 1 US M777 howitzer, 1 Akatsiya, and 1 Gvozdika SAUs.

▫️The Russian Grouping’s Operational-Tactical and Army Aviation, UAVs, Missile Troops, and Artillery wiped out 2 Mi-8 helicopters at a landing pad near Novopavlovka (DPR), 1 military hardware maintenance workshop near Balakleya, 1 Patriot SAM at a firing position (Kharkov reg), and engaged troops and hardware in 129 areas.

Air defences shot down 136 UAVs, 4 US HIMARS, 6 Grad MLRS shells, and 3 French HAMMER guided air bombs.

📊 In total, 577 aircraft, 269 helicopters, 15,362 UAVs, 485 SAMs, 15,464 tanks and other AFVs, 1,238 MLRS vehicles, 8,397 guns and mortars, and 19,709  special military vehicles have been destroyed during the SMO.
MoD

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2024/03/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on-march_13.html