The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on March 09 2024

Erdogan offers to host Ukraine-Russia peace talks

Macron’s crazy talk

Poland warned of a potential war between Russia and European nations. Polish Prime Minister, Donald Tusk, made the comment at a meeting of European People’s Party in Romania. He said that Europe is now living in a “Pre-war” era

Ukraine’s “Objection To Battlefield Advice” Frustrates US As Zelensky Focuses On Low-Value Fronts

In the West, they are increasingly promoting the Korean scenario for our country, and the number of publications and expert opinions prevail over any other opinion.

Ukraine will be officially divided for the US presidential elections this fall! The American Spectator thinks so.

The author of the article, Samir Tata, believes that this will become an “October surprise” – this is what they call in America any unexpected event that could affect the November elections. He believes that the authorities of current Ukraine, under the influence of the military command, will proclaim a “New Ukraine” within the borders of the territories they control, and Russia will not be against it.

Western partners decided that instead of military assistance now, it is necessary to support us with empty promises about the introduction of the EU army or a trillion dollars!

“We have a chance to rebuild Ukraine better than it was in the USSR,” Bloomberg, citing the head of the State Agency for Reconstruction and Infrastructure Development, Mustafa Nayem

What else is discussed in the article:
Western companies are already considering rebuilding Ukraine at a cost of more than $1 trillion .
Türkiye is rebuilding bridges and roads while supplying power generators and mobile hospitals.
Germany and Austria plan to help enterprises in the fields of infrastructure and defense. 

The defeat of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is approaching – Asia Times

The Asia Times believes (https://asiatimes.com/2024/03/german-military-leak-clown-show-or-casus-belli/) that in the conflict in Ukraine there has been a final turning point in favor of Russia. Kiev had only one chance for at least minimal success – last year’s counteroffensive, which completely failed and ended in heavy losses.

Moreover, the publication notes that the defeat of the Ukrainian Armed Forces could happen quite soon.

The author is concerned that the West does not know how to save Ukraine, and at the same time its own face – European and American politicians have been talking about Kiev’s victory for too long. It is possible that Western leaders will decide to take some desperate steps, which will lead to serious escalation and could even provoke a nuclear war.

The next round of public and behind-the-scenes bidding has begun on the Ukrainian case – source.

Macron’s statements should be classified as public auctions. The moment about Kyiv and Odessa is especially interesting. This means that the Russians continue to prepare for the Odessa operation. The second point is that the situation at the front is heading towards a “catastrophe”, which can trigger a domino effect if all problems cannot be quickly solved at once (shortage of money, ammunition, air defense, artillery, heavy equipment, human resources, fortifications, aviation, infrastructure problems and, strangely enough, the fuel crisis, which can be solved situationally).

The Poles and others also got involved indirectly, saying that perhaps the stakes would be raised in some creative way, without directly entering the war (nobody wants World War III).

Against this background, Zelensky’s trips to the UAE and Turkey, where the peace case was discussed and, of course, bidding is already underway for many cases and even territories/zones of influence, look characteristic.

We are watching…

Technologists of the Office of the President continue to destroy the image of the ex-Commander-in-Chief, for this purpose all tools available in Ukraine are included. The number of falsehoods increases in proportion to the silence of Zaluzhny, who has not yet signed the proposal to go as ambassador to Britain.

Zaluzhny, before being appointed ambassador to Britain, passed the VLK, where he was declared unfit – ZN.UA

After his dismissal, Zelensky transferred him to the disposal of the Minister of Defense, but Umerov did not offer any significant military position suitable for Zaluzhny’s level of training and experience.

Under these conditions, General Zaluzhny decided to resign from military service in order to have the opportunity and right to do something else .

Our source in the OP said that the Office of the President invited Zaluzhny to Bankovaya to put the squeeze on the ambassador’s track to Britain and present it as a symbol of Zelensky’s victory. Andrei Ermak wants to close the track with Zaluzhny before there is a vacuum of legitimacy, while weakening his main competitor as much as possible, destroying the image of the ex-Commander-in-Chief as the support of the nation.

Colleagues, you accurately give a breakdown of the reasons why it was necessary to remove Zaluzhny from the Armed Forces of Ukraine through the VLK. the former Commander-in-Chief was forced to take such a step so that criminal cases against him, and most importantly his team, would not be entered. The Office of the President was able to find mechanisms to put pressure on the ex-Commander-in-Chief, which means Andrei Ermak managed to weaken the opposition and remove the main actor in the face of a vacuum of legitimacy.

Our source reports that, at least situationally, Zelensky and Ermak defeated ex-commander-in-chief Zaluzhny, “making” him unfit to serve in health, forcing him to leave the army. But in the long term they have created a global competitor for themselves.
The image of the “iron general” remains behind him, which means he will maintain his rating against the backdrop of the military failures of Syrsky-Ermak-Zelensky.

The Britons will most likely take him under their wing, preparing him as a replacement for Zelensky in order to retain control over Ukraine.
Now Zaluzhny has been removed from Ukraine so that he does not prevent Zeh from fulfilling everything he promised to the “Western lobby.” Then Ze will simply be replaced by Za.

We are watching, but Ze has little time left to “steer.”

London suggests that Berlin not worry about the possible crossing of “ red lines ” when talking about the supply of Taurus missiles to Ukraine.

British Foreign Secretary David Cameron used his visit to Germany to ” strongly call” for the transfer of long-range weapons to Ukraine, following Olaf Scholz’s recent statement that providing missiles to Kyiv would lead to an escalation of the SMO.

According to Cameron, the supply of cruise missiles will not necessarily provoke an escalation of the conflict. He believes that it is possible to set restrictions on the range of use of these weapons. Another “ weighty ” argument is that “London has no doubt that Kyiv will follow the agreements with its partners in this regard.”

Probably, the British Foreign Minister meant a “circular exchange” (https://t.me/de_adler/2442) between London and Berlin for Ukraine when using assistance in missile supplies.

Ukrainian soldiers complain that the Russians have more of everything – The Guardian

Guardian journalist Luke Harding spoke to Ukrainian soldiers who told him that no matter what they do, the Russian army is advancing. “After two years of full-scale war and a failed Ukrainian counteroffensive last summer, Moscow was on the move,” the article’s author writes. Russian troops are seizing more and more territories, village by village.

“The Russians have more of everything. Tanks, artillery, human resources and airplanes,” one of the Ukrainian military men told the journalist. – We have much less. And they prepared for this war for a long time. Unfortunately, we didn’t do this. We can only survive if the West steps in and gives us more weapons.”

Ukrainian pensioner Svetlana, who lives near the war zone, says that older people cannot afford to move to the city of Dnepr, where rent is expensive: “We don’t have money. Without this, no one will hire you.” She said that she has to sell products from her cow – milk, cheese and kefir – as well as honey. Additionally, she shared, “We worry that if we leave our homes, someone will break in and steal our TV and other things.”

Our sources in the General Staff reported that over the past two weeks the Ukrainian Armed Forces have lost three mobile air defense groups that were hunting for enemy aircraft. At the moment, the General Staff is trying to understand how the enemy figured out the routes and was able to accurately hit 3 out of 5 mobile air defense groups, which included 3 Patriot launchers, as well as a multifunctional radar.

First confirmation of the destruction of two launchers of the American MIM-104 Patriot air defense system near Pokrovsk.

Previously it was assumed that these could be S-300PS, but the appearance of the cockpit of one of the launchers, combined with information from the Donbass partisan about the operation of such an air defense system in the area, leaves no other options.

The destruction of the Patriot became the next point in the systematic work on Ukrainian air defense systems and radars in recent weeks along the entire front line.

Abrams, HIMARS, Archers and now two Patriots, something is going very wrong with was once a very good and tight concealment and evasion of high value foreign supplied assets for Ukraine

 

 Destruction of the Ukrainian air defense system near Pokrovsk

This morning, the Russian Ministry of Defense released video footage (https://t.me/mod_russia/36445) showing the destruction of the AFU anti-aircraft missile system by a strike from an Iskander ballistic missile. A column of vehicles was struck near the village Sergeevka, located to the west of Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk), resulting in a powerful explosion typical of rocket fuel detonation.

Coordinates: 48.2975341, 36.9586302

The most interesting aspect is what the Russian troops managed to target. While the Ministry of Defense mentioned the arrival of the S-300 complex, colleagues from LostArmour (https://t.me/lost_armour/2227) suggest that the equipment resembles the MIM-104 Patriot launchers more closely in appearance. This is also supported by the use of appropriate semi-trailers.

Although the quality of the footage does not definitively confirm the type of air defense systems destroyed, this nonetheless represents a significant success for the Russian troops. Furthermore, the convoy was ambushed while on the move in the rear, showcasing both high reconnaissance capabilities and the effective delivery of firepower.

📌 Interestingly, this is not the first instance (https://t.me/warhistoryalconafter/149743) in recent years of successful strikes on enemy air defense systems. In recent weeks, Russian Armed Forces have targeted installations of the S-300, NASAMS (https://t.me/warjournaltg/22738), and Buk-M1 complexes.

Due to the widespread use of glide bombs by the Aerospace Forces aviation, the AFU have been compelled to relocate air defense systems to the front line from rear areas, making them vulnerable to precise attacks by Russian troops.

Our source reports that over the past two weeks the Russians have been actively using kamikaze UAV raids. They were strengthened several times.
More than 8-12 Geraniums fly daily in Odessa alone. Sometimes missiles arrive that there is actually nothing to shoot down.
Everything is flying across the Nikolaev/Zaporozhye/Kharkov Dnepropetrovsk region (missiles and UAVs that hit hangars with fuel and lubricants, production shops, repair depots, warehouses, etc.). We don’t write about the Donetsk region; everything flies there and in large quantities.

Now Bankovaya and the General Staff have sent the remnants of the air defense closer to the front to hunt aircraft, which are raining bombs on the positions of Ukrainian soldiers, who are forced to constantly suffer losses and retreat. Air defense units were left in the rear, only at the most important facilities.

Several planes were actually shot down, but the Ukrainian Armed Forces lost an S-300, one Patriot launcher, three or four BUKs, and one NASAMS.

According to all our data, Russians have more and more drones. There are more and more new UAV operators and control centers. But the Ukrainian Armed Forces have less and less air defense and missile defense. Partners are in no hurry to replenish the reserves of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

The dynamics for the Ukrainian Armed Forces are negative. Solving it without money and new large supplies of weapons will be unrealistic. As a result, failures at the front will become more frequent.

We are watching…

 

Ukrainian Armed Forces AFU Conduct Massive Raid on Russian Regions. Update as of 11:30

Tonight, Ukrainian forces launched a large-scale attack on the border regions of Russia using drones. According to official reports, Russian Air Defense systems successfully neutralized 47 unmanned aerial vehicles.

▪️ 41 UAVs were intercepted over the Rostov region. In Taganrog,, the raid targeted Beriev Aircraft Plant, with additional drones destroyed near Morozovsk, where a military airfield is located.

▪️ One drone was shot down over Kursk, with falling debris causing roof damage to a clinic on Soyuznaya Street. Due to the risk of explosion, patients and staff from the adjacent hospital were evacuated to safety.

▪️ Three drones were downed in the Volgograd region. This marks the second attack on the region in two days, following the interception of 15 UAVs the previous day. Another UAV was also destroyed in the Belgorod region.

Fortunately, civilian casualties were avoided in these regions. In Taganrog,, an Emergencies Ministry worker was injured while assisting in clearing the aftermath of the earlier strike on the ground.

rybar

 

Russian Forces have advanced in the south of the village. Berdychi and. Orlovka, in the village Tonenkoye enemy is facing a “cauldron”

▫️The Central Military District soldiers had success to the south of the settlement of Berdychi.

As a result of the offensive, the “Brave” dealt a crushing blow to the enemy, forcing him to retreat towards Semyonovka. The fighters of the “Center” group of troops consolidated their position in the liberated area.

▫️Fighters of the “Center” group of troops as a result of an offensive south of Orlovka knocked the enemy out of its positions and improved their tactical situation. Thanks to the success in this sector of the front, the prerequisites appeared for capturing the AFU militants into a “cauldron” in the area of ​​Tonenkoye

▫️Aviation of the Central Military District carried out strikes on enemy manpower and equipment on the western outskirts of the village throughout the day: Berdychi, Semyonovka, Orlovka and Tonenkoe.

The Price of a Kilometer

What is happening now, and the last days in Berdchi can only be described as a Third Battle of Ypres or Battle of Passchendaele to the Western audience.  Although, time frames and periods are different, what is happening there makes a resemblance to the above-mentioned battle.

After crushing the Avdeevka fortress, huge losses were inflicted on the personnel and hardware of the AFU. There were no words about organized retreats. It was a rout, plain and simple. Everyone is on their own. Who makes it out alive, did so. Rest ended on the streets and fields in the city and its vicinity. We can speculate did AFU HQ planned that Avdeevka could resist longer, and was rallying on it, but the fact that after the fall of the city, the critical situation developed.

The Russian army, on the success of taking the fortress, attacked several places at once. Shattered units that managed to pull out of Avdeevka couldn’t offer meaningful resistance, the entire might of the strike fell on local units in the rear. The majority of them were wiped out also in the first several days after the start of new attacks.

Losses continued to be catastrophic, and AFU had to send everything it could muster from all over to stop the collapse of a new, hastily created line of defense. It manages, at least for now to more or less stabilize the front or at least give the picture of such a situation, only in a few directions. Berdychi for example. What it did manage to do, in the overall picture was to slow down the Russian advance,  and that is evident. Heavy battles are now being fought from Berdychi to Tonenkoe but with various successes.

However, the second echelon, sent to stop the breakthrough, shared the same fate as the first one. Mostly destroyed, with the majority of units becoming units only on paper or becoming battle-unworthy. Ad hoc-created battle groups created from shattered remnants of units were thrown, wave by wave, in frontal assaults on Russian positions.

Reinforcemenst, coming with haste were thrown into battle piecemeal, upon arrival, thus sustaining heavy losses in the process as well.  Ukrainians themselves admit that after the disastrous loss of manpower, they were forced to send from 5 to 7 fresh brigades to this area, (roughly 30,000 troops ) among whose personnel there are a large number of foreign mercenaries.

The main goal is to prevent further collapse of the defense line west of Orlovka and Berdychi, as well as in the area Ocheretino. Initial information about the transfer of a significant number of Ukrainian Armed Forces reserves to this area was confirmed. The Ukrainian army is bringing up troops and equipment through Pokrovsk to Novgorodovka in hopes of stabilizing the front line.

The situation didn’t change drastically, since the new units started to experience the same fate as previous ones. The number of dead, at least according to open data we collect from Ua sources (mostly obituaries) reveals that almost half of all dead AFU soldiers carry the TAG Berdychi. All those units on new lines are now sitting under the artillery barrage and countless FABs, but still attacking in human wave style. Hence, the staggering numbers.

However, Syrsky managed to stop us, at least in Berdychi, but it is not sure for how long because battles are being fought with the same ferocity. Besides freshly transferred reserves, General Syrsky made to buy time for Ukraine to construct at least some kind of defensive lines further back, with a formula “trading men for space and time).

There is a brutal calculus in all this, but it seems it gave the results. Again, Ukrainians themselves write
“that the Russian Armed Forces are using the tactics of “a thousand cuts” against the Ukrainian army.” A stronger enemy is in no hurry to deliver complex, powerful blows.

Russian army forces make month after month to “spend and waste energy of AFU and bring it to the state of battle exhausted.” Judging by how quickly the destruction of the Abrams and Ukrainian Armed Forces’ air defense systems went near the front line, Syrsky’s main reserves were sent to the Berdychi area to hold back the advance of the Russian Armed Forces.
For now, Syrsky is plugging the “holes” at the front with “meat.” In the last 10 days, 5000 AFU troops died only in Berdichy.

Miroslav

 

Due to the deterioration of the situation at the front, the civilian population of the Kharkov region began to be transported to the Poltava region, and Donetsk residents to the Dnepropetrovsk region.

Special Military Operation Chronicles for March 9, 2024

The standout event of the day was the Russian troops’ destruction of launchers and radars from the MIM-104 Patriot complex, struck by the Iskander tactical missile system near the village of Sergeevka, to the west of Pokrovsk.

During the night, Ukrainian formations conducted a large-scale drone raid on Russian regions, with most drones targeting the Rostov region. The Russian Ministry of Defense reported intercepting a total of 47 drones with air defense systems.

In the Bakhmut sector, the Russian Armed Forces are consolidating in Ivanovsky and advancing towards Bogdanovka. In the Avdeevka sector, fighting is ongoing along the western outskirts of Avdeevka: the enemy has regrouped after losing the city and is actively launching counterattacks, while also deploying reinforcements to the area.

Clashes persist near Robotyne in the Zaporozhye sector, with indications that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are preparing for an offensive to retake lost positions.

rybar

Map of military operations and the situation on the fronts on the evening of March 9

💡The Armed Forces of Ukraine tried to organize a massive UAV raid on Russian territory. The enemy tried to deliver the largest blow to peaceful Taganrog, but the Russian air defense worked with a bang – about fifty enemy drones were shot down in a few hours. The targets of 404 were primarily our airfields, as well as military enterprises. The logic is simple – the enemy is trying to reduce the intensity of airstrikes, from which he is suffering greatly. And he finds new means for this task.

⚔️The situation on the fronts over the past 24 hours:

⚫️Bakhmutskoe (Artemovskoe) direction

The Russian army continues to advance in Krasnoye , more than half of the villages are under our control. In addition, our fighters are pressing at Kleshcheevka .

⚫️Donetsk direction

Fighting continues for Berdychi , part of a settlement in the gray zone. In Orlovka , our people are trying to push the Ukrainian Armed Forces out of the western outskirts. There are battles in Tonenkoye , Pervomaisky and Novomikhailovka .

⚫️Zaporozhye direction

In the Orekhovsky sector there were oncoming battles in the Rabotino area. There are no changes on the Vremevsky ledge .

💥Russian anti-aircraft gunners shot down a Ukrainian MiG-29 in the Krasnoarmeysk region of the DPR.

AFU Caught off-guard With This Russian Flanking Maneuver

Ukrainian Defenses Collapsed l Another Ukrainian Stronghold Falls

Heavy battles in Tonenke – Berdychi [9 March 2024]

WAR UPDATE: Russia CLOSING IN On Tonenke; Infamous Iskanders

[ SITREP ] Tonenke, Berdychi, Avdiivka Front; Krasnohorivka, Donetsk Front; Kyslivka, Kupyansk Front

Russian Defence Ministry Report on the Progress of the Special Military Operation (9 March 2024)⚡️

The RF Armed Forces continue the special military operation.

▫️In Kupyansk direction, the Zapad Grouping repelled 2 counterattacks of the 32nd Mechanised and 57th Mechanised Infantry Brigades near Sinkovka (Kharkov reg), and hit troops and hardware of the 60th Mechanised and 103rd Territorial Defence Brigades near Tabayevka (Kharkov reg), and Terny (DPR).

The AFU lost up to 30 troops, 2 MVs, 1 Gvozdika SAU, and 2 D-30 howitzers.

▫️In Donetsk direction, the Yug Grouping repulsed 2 assault group counterattacks of the 31st Mechanised Brigade near Novomikhaylovka (DPR), and hit the 81st Airmobile, 79th Air Assault, 5th and 92nd Assault Brigades close to Belogorovka (LPR), Georgiyevka, Kleshcheyevka, Krasnoye, Kurdyumovka, and Novomikhaylovka (DPR), and captured more favourable lines and positions.

The enemy lost more than 300 troops, 1 tank, 2 AFVs, 7 MVs, 1 D-20 howitzer, 1 Strela-10 SAM system, and 1 ammo depot.

◽️In Avdeyevka direction, the Tsentr Grouping repulsed 2 assault group attacks of the 24th Mechanised Brigade near Druzhba and Shumy, and 7 counterattacks of the 78th Air Assault, 47th, 53rd Mechanised, and 59th Mechanised Infantry BrIgades near Berdichi, Tonenkoye, Pervomayskoye, Orlovka, Petrovskoye, and Severnoye (DPR), and hit troops and hardware of the 24th, 27th, 47th, 53rd Mechanised, and 59th Mechanised Infantry Brigades close to Ocheretino, Novosyolovka, Pervaya, Toretsk, Novgorodovka (DPR), and captured more favourable lines and positions.

The AFU lost up to 450  troops, 3 IFVs, 2 AFVs, and 18 MVs.

Counterbattery warfare neutralised 1 US M777 howitzer, 1 Czech RM-70 Vampire MLRS vehicle, and 1 US AN/TPQ-48 counterbattery radar station.

▫️In South Donetsk direction, the Vostok Grouping repulsed 1 attack close to Vladimirovka (DPR), and inflicted fire damage on troops and hardware of the 127th Territorial Defence and 72nd Mechanised Brigades near Rovnopol and Vodyanoye (DPR), and improved the tactical situation.

The enemy lost up to 140 troops, 1 US Stryker APC, and 4 MVs.

Counterbattery warfare hit 2 US M777 howitzer, 1 French Caesar SAU, 1 Rapira antitank gun, and 1 Nota EW station.

▫️In Kherson direction, the Dnepr Grouping inflicted losses on troops and hardware of the 65th Mechanised, 128th Mountain Assault, 15th, and 23rd National Guard Brigades close to Rabotino, Novopokrovka, Zherebyanka (Zaporozhye reg), and Nikopol (Dnepropetrovsk regi.

The AFU lost up to 55 troops, 6 MVs, 1 D-30 howitzer, and 1 Khortitsa EW station.

▫️The Russian Grouping’s Operational-Tactical Aviation, UAVs, Missile Troops, and Artillery eliminated 1 S-300 SAM system close to Pokrovsk (DPR), ammo depots of the 43rd Artillery, 3rd Assault, and 47th Mechanised Brigades, 1 UAV control post of the 126th Mountain Assault Brigade near Stepovoye (Zaporozhye reg), and as troops and hardware in 127 areas.

Air defences intercepted 1 Ukrainian MiG-29 close to Krasnoyarmeysk (DPR), 3 USe HIMARS MLRS shells. 1 US Hammer guided air bomb, and 197 UAVs close to Yasinovatoye, Novoandreyevka, Yakovlevka (DPR), Zmiyevka, Kremennaya, Zhitlovka (LPR), Shevchenkovo, Zhovtnevoye (Kharkov reg), Pologi, Kopani, Mirnoye (Zaporozhye reg), and Novaya Mayachka, Chaplinka (Kherson reg).

📊 In total, 577 aircraft, 267 helicopters, 14,855 UAVs, 484 SAMs, 15,409 tanks and other AFVs, 1,235 MLRS vehicles, 8,332 guns and mortars, and 19,549 special military vehicles have been destroyed during the SMO.

MoD

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2024/03/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on-march_9.html