The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on March 01 2024

Russian Aggressive Attrition and the Limits of Western Analysis

Amid Russia’s Streak Of Wins In Ukraine, Putin Aide’s Message For UK For Helping Zelensky

Is Putin Right to Threaten NATO?

RUSSIA CLAIM UKRAINE LOST 444,000 TROOPS! Massive modernisation of military; 12 times more TOS-1A???

Fighting Against Peace in Ukraine

Our source reports that inside the state, large officials and even security forces are preparing “suitcases” for a quick exit from the country.
Many are withdrawing their capital little by little.
The moment has come when few people want to be on Zelensky’s team. Everyone realizes that the situation will only get worse and at its peak the authorities will begin severe repressions in order to maintain power. This will be a “crappy time” for Ukraine. It is better to watch it from “warm countries”.

The conclusion is sad: due to the actions of Zelensky and Ermak, the state is rotten from the inside. This is comparable to a tree that looks strong, but inside it is already “rotten” and the next hurricane will knock it down.

The bidding has begun.   Macron’s statement should be considered only in terms of bargaining in order to force the Russian Federation to reduce its “demands” when signing possible peace agreements with Ukraine.
Therefore, Macron is in every possible way warming up the topic of raising rates in the Ukrainian crisis. They say we will send military contingents to Ukraine.

How will the Russian Federation respond?
- will strike with more powerful weapons, including tactical nuclear weapons.
- will officially declare war on Ukraine, which will automatically make all players participants.
- It will strike foreign points outside of Ukraine and NATO countries, but this is the third world war.
- reconnaissance aircraft will begin to demolish NATO planes, but this is also the third world war.

With such movements, Macron can simply give Ukrainians hope that Western help is about to come and fight until the end and do not retreat. Everyone join the army, Western help is about to arrive. Although they don’t want to give money, they don’t give weapons, but then suddenly they send their soldiers. Absurd?

We are watching…

Soon there will be no one to fight: CNN – about the losses of Ukraine

It’s time for the West to recognize how enormous the humanitarian consequences of Russia’s resistance have been for Ukraine, writes the CNN website. As the channel’s correspondent, who regularly visits the Lvov region of the country, emphasizes, Ukrainian cemeteries are already “bursting at the seams,” and officials have to make efforts to make room for new graves.

Until recently, the number of Ukrainian soldiers killed in the conflict was carefully hidden, but last Sunday Vladimir Zelensky estimated it at 31 thousand, according to a CNN article. Meanwhile, this figure lags significantly behind the estimates of the American government, which back in August last year spoke of 70 thousand dead Ukrainians.

As the CNN journalist admits, many residents of Lvov tell him that in small villages in the vicinity of the city there are no men left at all – and the queues of volunteers, as there were two years ago, are no longer visible at the military registration and enlistment offices. “In this regard, I am tormented by the question: if we take into account how many people died, how many were permanently out of action due to injuries, and how many fled abroad or paid officials so that their names disappeared from the lists of conscripts, who will remain? “What if there is a general mobilization?” writes the channel’s correspondent.

The topic of individual security guarantees buried Zelensky’s “peace plan” – the documents do not contain obligations of Western partners to fight on the side of Ukraine and help Kyiv in peace negotiations.

Moreover, agreements on security guarantees with EU countries may represent a form of legally non-binding surrogate for Ukraine’s membership in NATO. That is, the possibility of Ukraine joining the North Atlantic Alliance is still illusory, since Westerners will insist on the fact that they are already cooperating with Kiev.

As we see, the West has once again merged the interests of Ukraine, getting rid of our claims as meaningless, and in the case of Italy, not even legally binding pieces of paper. After all, all the “guarantees” for Kyiv that are mentioned in the agreements are only consultations in the event of a new “Russian invasion of Ukraine” and confirmation of military-technical and financial assistance, which has been happening for a long time.

Thus, these documents mean nothing and do not give Ukraine any guarantees, much less security guarantees (they are not the basis of a full-fledged military alliance and do not imply the activation of an analogue of NATO Article 5).

The results of the summer counter-offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces have been nullified, now completely, which means there will be no new attempts to break through the enemy’s defenses.

Only in the south and in the Kherson direction did the Russian Federation recapture almost all the territories that the Ukrainian Armed Forces had recaptured at the cost of terrible losses. And this is not to mention the loss of a powerful fortified area, which was Avdeevka, and the advance of the Russian army on the territory of Donbass.

Ukrainian military personnel note that the Russian Armed Forces have already taken control of as many settlements as the Ukrainian Armed Forces occupied during the entire counteroffensive. “Currently, the main advantage of the RF Armed Forces is our lack of adequate engineering and fortification structures on “pre-prepared lines”, where our brigades do not have the physical ability to “catch on” to the ground. The enemy has already entered Lastochkino, Stepnoe and Severnoe on his shoulders and is continuing.” , – emphasize the 46th OAMBr.

Meanwhile, the Russian Armed Forces continue to develop successes in the Zaporozhye direction – the Russian military entered the village of Rabotino, the capture of which the Armed Forces of Ukraine and Western analysts presented as the main success of the summer counter-offensive.

Ukrainian elites are forming an opposition against Zelensky around the ex-commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Zaluzhny, who will clearly be the main political figure in the country. As long as Zaluzhny acts correctly and logically, the general does not give out interviews or make any political statements. His opponents are also in “zugzwang” – any move they make worsens the situation.

However, time is on the side of Bankova’s political rivals—the ratings of the current government are steadily declining, and Zelensky has less than three months left before the expiration of his term as the current president. Yes, according to the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, 69% of Ukrainians are against voting before the lifting of martial law, but back in October there were noticeably more of them – 81%. And this is an alarming statistic for the Office of the President. Moreover, the number of Ukrainians who believe that Zelensky should limit himself to one term is growing – 43% (previously there were 34% of such citizens) and those who do not trust the president – 60% (two years ago Zelensky was trusted by 90%). Apparently, the president cannot be forgiven for corruption, failures at the front, and now inhumane, anti-people mobilization.

In parallel with this, Zelensky also lowered his own rating by dismissing the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Zaluzhny, who was popular in the country and in the West, essentially “pushing” him into the political arena.

Russia could break through Ukraine’s defenses by summer, – Bloomberg

▪️”Ukrainian authorities are concerned that the Russian army could gain significant momentum by the summer if the West fails to increase supplies of ammunition.”

▪️Kiev and the West’s assessments of the situation at the front have been “becoming increasingly gloomy” for several weeks now as Russia seizes the initiative on the front line and delays with US assistance.

▪️The fall of Avdeevka and a number of nearby villages increases fears that the defense of Kiev “may not withstand.”

▪️ “Ukraine may begin to lose the war as early as this year,” said US expert on Russia and Ukraine Michael Kofman.

▪️Depending on the results of this campaign, Russia will decide whether to continue a slow, targeted offensive or accumulate resources for a larger strike to break through Ukrainian lines this summer.

▪️Putin has not given up on taking major cities of Ukraine, including Kiev and Odessa, but a major offensive requires more forces and equipment than is available.

▪️Ukraine strategy : try to hold the front line as long as possible until the second half of the year to wait for F-16s and ammunition, which will allow Kiev to plan a counter-offensive in 2025.

Bundeswehr officials discussed the option of striking the Crimean bridge with Taurus missiles from a Dassault Rafale fighter jet.

This follows from a recently leaked transcript of a conversation between high-ranking German officers dated February 19, 2024.

The conversation was between Grefe, head of operations and exercises at Air Force Command, Air Force inspector Gerhartz (pictured) and officers from Air Operations Center Fenske and Frostedte.

One of the officers mentioned a planned trip to Ukraine on February 21 to coordinate strikes against Russian targets.

The transcript (https://telegra.ph/Rasshifrovka-razgovora-vysokopostavlennyh-oficerov-Bundesvera-ot-19022024-03-01) was published by RT Editor-in-chief Margarita Simonyan and we will be shortly translating it to English — stay tuned

 

Russian Armed Forces Strike Targets in Kostyantynivka

The Russian army continues to target locations and bases of enemy personnel in the front-line zone, including the temporarily occupied territory of the DPR.

In Kostyantynivka, in the Bakhmut sector , a significant strike (https://t.me/don_partizan/4299) was conducted on Ukrainian formation targets.

Enemy engineering and mechanized units’ temporary deployment points in City Outpatient Clinic No. 2 and Kindergarten No. 15 were struck, resulting in the deaths of more than ten personnel and over 20 injuries of varying severity.

The city police department and the Security Service of Ukraine were also hit, but there is no information on personnel presence at the time of impact. Additionally, one of the missiles hit near the territory of Megatex LLC, where the enemy’s electronic warfare system operational area is located.

This is at least the third significant strike on a populated area in a week. The previous one targeted railway infrastructure (https://t.me/rybar/57554) and manpower bases. The Russian Armed Forces have begun systematically launching strikes to diminish the enemy forces’ combat capabilities in this sector.

rybar

 

AFU’s Combined Attack on Crimea

In the afternoon, Ukrainian formations, after a long break, once again attacked the Crimean peninsula. The raid can hardly be called large-scale; it appears more like an attempt to disrupt the flow of information following territorial losses near Avdievka.

🔻Two Su-24M bombers and two MiG-29 fighters took off from the Kanatovo airfield. The Su-24Ms had flown in advance from Starokonstantinov to carry out the attack.

▪️ From the outskirts of Nikolaev,, several ADM-160 MALD decoy missiles were fired first in the direction of Crimea. This was followed by the launch of four Storm Shadow/SCALP cruise missiles from the Su-24M.

▪️ The missiles were directed towards the Belbek and Gvardeyskoye airfields. One target was shot down near Chernomorskoye and another in the Kachi area. Two targets were intercepted as they approached Gvardeyskoye, and the third, after being fired upon by an air defense missile system, crashed onto the airfield.

▪️ Interestingly, another air target flying towards Crimea deviated from its original course. According to Two Majors (https://t.me/dva_majors), instead of heading towards the peninsula, it flew in the direction of Turkey. What happened to it thereafter remains unclear.

❗️Following that, two ballistic missiles were launched from the Tuzlov region in the Odessa region towards the Tendrovskaya Spit. Presumably, the AFU aimed to target the positions of the Russian Armed Forces, which had repelled the unsuccessful MTR attack the previous day. However, since the attack likely used the S-200, known for its extremely low accuracy, the missiles probably ended up in the water.

🔻Summing up the events, the Russian Aerospace Forces airfield was once again targeted by the AFU. This marks the third object since the beginning of 2024, following Belbek and Saki. The trend is quite evident.

Interestingly, the basing of the Su-24M at Kanatovo has become more frequent and extended compared to before. It seems that the AFU are undeterred by attacks on the airfield, despite the control point at Kanatovo being hit after a week-long assault.

rybar

The Russian army continues to capture villages in the Avdeevsky direction, they took Orlovka, said Bild military analyst Julian Röpke

Analyzing the situation after the capture of Avdiivka, Repke states that currently “the West is being defeated in Ukraine.”

According to him, the Russian Federation is demonstrating “a real battle of combined arms methods,” when aviation, tanks, drones and artillery effectively interact.

He states that “Ukrainians have no chance” because of Russian 500 kg aerial bombs. They destroy the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces along with the soldiers. The concentration of Russian aviation and airstrikes is now “unprecedented.”

“If we do not quickly change (drastically improve) the quality and quantity of weapons, the country will bleed for many years and lose territory until Russia considers its geostrategic goals fulfilled,” Roepke writes.

He believes that Ukraine should consider whether it “wants to continue to defend (and lose) front-line positions” given Russia’s significant superiority in soldiers and equipment.

 

South Donetsk Direction: Clashes in Novomikhailovka about the situation at the end of March 1, 2024

In the Yuzhnodonetsk direction, the main events are unfolding in Novomikhailovka, confirming the advancement of the Russian Armed Forces in the industrial zone near Sintezprodservice LLC.

▪️ Footage of Russian infantry has surfaced in Novomikhailovka, south of Timiryazev Street, near one of the hangars. Moreover, progress is being made along Shevchenko and Timiryazev streets, with several houses taken, although determining the exact frontline configuration remains challenging.

On the northern outskirts of the village, no success has been observed yet. The enemy managed to rotate some of the forward positions.

▪️ Multiple air strikes using FABs with JDAM are ongoing in the northern part of Novoselovka and adjacent landings. Smaller targets are being hit by kamikaze UAVs.

▪️ In the Pobeda area, south of Maryinka, the enemy has launched several counterattacks and seems to have gained ground on the southern outskirts of the village, advancing along the O0532 highway. Earlier in the same area, there was activity involving AFU armored vehicles, including Leopard (https://t.me/rybar/57309) tanks.

rybar

Regular kamikaze UAVs are flying across the Kharkov and Poltava regions, missiles are flying across Krivoy Rog, and during the day there were arrivals in the Zaporozhye and Nikolaev regions.
Each rocket is minus a warehouse, industrial workshop, hangar with toys, aviation infrastructure or repair base, etc.
Every day, dozens of UAVs fly along the Ukrainian rear, near or far. This is a daily load on air defense, this is a constant consumption of scarce ammunition for air defense/missile defense.

From this we can conclude that the situation is gradually worsening against the background of a slowdown in the supply of weapons and ammunition to the Armed Forces of Ukraine by Western partners.
According to our source, with such actions the Russian Armed Forces are overloading the work of the entire state and military system of Ukraine, which has to put out thousands of fires, including clashes on the front line. At some point, it will all fail and trigger the domino principle if the situation is not fundamentally corrected.

 

The Kupyansk Bridge in the Oskol area was destroyed by an airstrike using a glide bomb

This region boasts numerous large and small rivers. For some time now, the Russian Armed Forces have been reducing the number of bridges. The aim is to funnel Ukrainian troops along specific routes, allowing for easy tracking of reinforcements and supplies, facilitating their quick destruction.

The significant reduction in the number of bridges means that in the event of a major offensive, the Ukrainian army may be forced to abandon its remaining heavy weapons and withdraw solely with infantry.

 

Map of military operations and the situation on the fronts on the evening of March 1

⚔️The situation on the fronts over the past 24 hours:

⚫️Svatovo-Kremennoe direction

In the Kupyansky section, the Russian army destroyed the pontoon bridge across the river. Oskol , thereby complicating the supply of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Fighting continues in the area of   Sinkovka and Ternov.

⚫️Bakhmutskoe (Artemovskoe) direction

Fighting for Bogdanovka continues. The Russian army knocked out the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the eastern part of Krasnoye .

⚫️Donetsk direction

The Russian army advanced in the Berdychi area. There are battles for positions in the area of   Orlovka and Tonenkoye . In addition, our fighters liberated the southern part of Novomikhailovka , confirming their successes by raising the Russian tricolor; fighting continues for the remaining part of the village.

⚫️Zaporozhye direction

In the Orekhovsky sector, the battles for Rabotino and Verbovoy continue. On the Vremevsky ledge, our fighters attacked in the Urozhayny area. Novodonetsky has oncoming battles.

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Russian Defence Ministry Report on the Progress of the Special Military Operation (29 February 2024)⚡️

The RF Armed Forces continue the special military operation.
 
▫️In Kupyansk direction, the Zapad Grouping launched strikes at enemy troops and hardware near Sinkovka (Kharkov reg) and Terny (DPR), and improved the tactical situation.

The AFU lost up to 50 troops, 1 tank, 2 AFVs, and 3 MVs.

Counterbattery warfare eliminated 1 Msta-B, 1 D-30. 1 US M198 howitzers, 1 Akatsiya, 1 Gvozdika, and 1 Polish Krab SAUs.
 
▫️In Donetsk direction, the Yug Grouping repulsed 4 counterattacks of the 10th Mountain Assault Brigade close to Berestovoye (DPR), and inflicted fire damage on troops  and military hardware clusters of the 28th Mechanised and 92nd Assault Brigades close to Andreyevka, Kleshcheyevka, and Kurdyumovka (DPR), and improved the situation along the frontline.

The enemy lost up to 600 troops, 2 tanks, 2 APCs, and 10 MVs.

Counterbattery warfare hit 1 Uragan MLRS vehicle, 1 Polish Krab SAU, 1 D-20, and 3 D-30 howitzers.
 
▫️In Avdeyevka direction, the Tsentr Grouping inflicted losses on troops and hardware of the 53rd, 61st Mechanised, and 59th Motorised Infantry Brigades near Berdychi, Severnoye, Orlovka, and Pervomayskoye (DPR), and took more advantageous lines and positions.

The AFU lost up to 495 troops, 7 tanks, 2 IFVs, 4 AFVs, and 11 MVs.

Counterbattery warfare eliminated 3 D-20, two D-30, 1 Msta-B howitzers, and 1 Gvozdika SAU.

▫️In South Donetsk direction, the Vostok Grouping launched complex strikes at AFU troops and hardware near Rovnopol, Staromayorskoye, and Urozhaynoye (DPR).

The enemy lost up to 105 troops, 3 MVs, 1 D-20 howitzer, and 1 Gvozdika SAU.

▫️In Kherson direction, Russian units inflicted losses on troops and hardware clusters of the 128th Mountain Assault, 118th Mechanised, and 35th Marine Brigades near Rabotino, Stepovoye, Malye Shcherbaki (Zaporozhye reg), and Tokarevka (Kherson reg), and took more advantageous positions.

The AFU lost up to 50 troops, 5 MVs, and 1 Bukovel-AD EW station.

1 SRG landing attempt of the 73rd Marine Special OP Centre was neutralised close to Tendraya Spit.

The enemy lost up to 25 troops, 4 of 5 speedboats, and 1 POWs was taken.
 
▫️The Russian Groupings Operational-Tactical Aviation, UAVs, Missile Troops, and Artillery hit a command post of Kupyansk Task Force, 2 command posts of the 72nd Mechanised and 59th Motorised Infantry Brigades, 1 S-300PS SAM, 3 ammo depots, and troops and military hardware in 126 areas.
 
Air defences shot down 9 HIMARS MLRS shells, 2 JDAM aerial guided bombs, and 93 UAVs close to Lisichansk, Golikovo (LPR), Kurdyumovka, Pervomayskoye, Krinichnaya (DPR), Mikhaylovka (Zaporozhye reg).

📊 In total, 575 aircraft, 267 helicopters, 13,715 UAVs, 475 SAMs, 15,286 tanks and other AFVs, 1,227 MLRS vehicles, 8,223 guns and mortars, and 19,211 special military vehicles have been destroyed during the SMO.

MoD

Special Military Operation Chronicles March 1, 2024

Today, the Russian Armed Forces conducted coordinated strikes on what are known as rear targets in Ukraine. In Kostyantynivka, they targeted the temporary deployment points of engineer-sapper and mechanized units of the AFU. Additionally, in the Sumy region, the Zarutsky Lime Plant was struck.

Within the special military operation zone, Russian units maintain the initiative in multiple areas. There are reports indicating that Russian troops have essentially gained full control of Krasnoye ( Ivanovskoye ) near Bakhmut, with ongoing fighting in the vicinity of the village.

To the west of Avdeevka, fighting persists on the northern outskirts of Orlovka. Simultaneously, the Russian Armed Forces are targeting the enemy’s forward positions in the Semyonovka area, from where the AFU launch counterattacks on Berdychi and Orlovka.

In the Zaporizhia direction, there have been reports of local advances by Russian units. Control in forest plantations around Verbovoy and Novoprokopovka has slightly expanded, while west of Robotyne, the Russian Armed Forces are solidifying their gained territory.

In the Kherson sector, the enemy still maintains a bridgehead in Krynki. The AFU’s activity is observed on the islands in the Dnieper delta north of Krynki and Cossack Camps.

In the evening, the enemy launched another attack on Russian airfields Belbek and Gvardeyskoye in the Crimean Peninsula using cruise missiles, but minimal damage was reported. The AFU also targeted the Tendra Spit, failing to hit their intended targets.

rybar

Front #Summary for 1 Mar 2024 by 19:52⚡️

🔻#Kherson Direction:
🟡In the #Tyaginka Sector, AFU groups are moving from #Krynki to the west, towards Cossack Camps. It is still unclear whether the remnants of the garrison escaped from the fire of our artillery or the AFU groups landed on our shore and advanced in the grey zone between the villages.

🔻#Zaporozhye Direction:
🟡In the #Orekhov Section, Russian aircraft are hitting the AFU trenches in #Rabotino, which lead from the southern part of the village to the north.
📌 On the ground, our military uses the tactics of “swing”, they enter the grey zone, fight and retreat to the initial positions. Due to the inability to gain a foothold in the ruins, #Rabotino must be completed in one throw. And to do this, exhaust the AFU with a carousel of infantry, aviation and artillery attacks.

🔻#Avdeyevka Direction:
🟡In the #Orlovka Sector, there are battles on the western outskirts of #Orlovka itself, #Berdychi and #Tonenkoye. Our forces are putting the squeeze on the enemy. North of #Stepovoye (now #Petrowskoye), our troops knocked out the AFU and leveled the frontline between the railway line and #Berdychi. We managed to expand the front zone near #Nevelskoye, and for sure the attacks will become more active there.
📌 The AFU are resisting fiercely, trying to gain time to strengthen a new line of defence 5-7 km from the current line.

🔻#Bakhmut Direction:
🟡In the “Chasov Yar” Sector, fighting continues in #Ivanovskoye (#Krasnoye) and the surrounding area. The AFU are trying to keep control of the #Ivanovskoye – #Kleshcheyevka road, the only non–rural supply route to #Andreyevka and #Kleshcheyevka. Further to the west there are hills, which are also controlled by the AFU. In the village of #Ivanovskoye itself, our troops are advancing from the centre of the village. Information about the abandonment of the village by the AFU and the transition of the western outskirts to the grey zone has not yet been confirmed.

🔻#Svatovo Direction:
🟡In the #Seversk Sector, our forces expanded the control zone north of the industrial zone’s the water utility and approached #Belogorovka (again) from the west.
🟡In the #Kupyansk Sector, our troops destroyed another pontoon bridge of the AFU across the #Oskol River, near the Kupyansk-Uzlovoy Station, the logistics hub of the AFU.
📌 With the approach of the front to the #Oskol, the vulnerability of all crossings has increased, but the AFU continues to actively build new ones. Residents from #Kharkov report that the number of trains sent with grain, flour, etc. has increased significantly. In addition, supposedly local SBU officers are taking their families out of the city.

☠️ The AFU shelling killed two people in the #DPR. Another AFU attack on #Crimea was repelled in the afternoon, according to preliminary information, up to 10 missiles were shot down, possibly Storm Shadow and several drones. The Russian Ombudsman announced the readiness to transfer to #Kiev the bodies of those killed in the Il-76 crash in the #Belgorod region.

olegtsarov

#Summary for the Morning of 1 Mar 2024⚡️

🇺🇦 By PETRENKO ✙ REPORTS

🔴 In the #Bakhmut direction, Russian troops advanced on the northeastern outskirts of #Ivanovskoye in a section up to 1 km wide to a depth of 450 m.
🟡 To the west of the “Chernobylets Mine” and north of the #Kleshcheyevka fortified area, the AFU repelled all attacks. Without changes.

🔴 In the #Avdeyevka front section, the AFU pushed back Russian troops in the eastern part of #Berdychi up to 300 m.
🟡 In #Orlovka, heavy fighting continues, and in the area of #Tonenkoye with varying success. At the latter, the AFU pushed back the enemy from the southern outskirts up to 100 m.

🔴 In the #SouthDonetsk front section, the AFU pushed back Russian troops 700 m in the area of the “Solonenka Beam” northwest of the #Sladkoye village.

petrenko

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2024/03/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on-march.html